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A 2005 prediction of solar activity. The sunspot number should now stand close to 100, instead it is zero.
"Spin-orbit coupling" to blame; effects could last decades.

A new paper published by the Astronomical Society of Australia is warning of upcoming global cooling due to lessened solar activity.  The study, written by three Australian researchers, has identified what is known as a "spin-orbit coupling" affecting the rotation rate of the sun.  That rotation, in turn, is linked to the intensity of the solar cycle and climate changes here on Earth.

The study's lead author, Ian Wilson, explains further, "[The paper] supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30 years."   

According to Wilson, the result is a strong, rapid pulse of global cooling, "On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 - 2 C."
 
A 2 C drop would be twice as large as all the warming the earth has experienced since the start of the industrial era, and would be significant enough to impact global agriculture output.

Earlier this year, astronomers from around the world noted solar activity was suspiciously low; some began predicting global cooling at that time.  Since then, activity has remained far below average, with it now being over two months since a single sunspot has appeared on the surface of the sun.

In May, a team of German climatologists published research stating that, due to "natural effects", global warming would halt for up to 15 years.

The new paper appears in the June issue of PASA, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.

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All Hail The Sun God
By odessit740 on 7/1/2008 11:52:45 AM , Rating: 3
All hail Gore the Sun God,
He's a real smart God,
Blah Blah Blah!

I hate how the ones who suffer because of all this crap are the kids. Brain-washed by politicians left and right.

"We need to protect the nation, at all costs. There are terrorists amongst us!"
"We need to bring our troops home, they have no 'right' to be in Iraq."
"Support our troops."
"Our troops are war criminals."
"We need less reliance on oil."
"We need to drill for more oil."
"I will use public financing."
"I will not use public financing."

Anyone else tired of this crap?




RE: All Hail The Sun God
By mholler on 7/1/2008 12:43:38 PM , Rating: 4
Well, the only point I will address is that reducing reliance on oil and drilling for more oil are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Drilling will increase supply and decrease dependence on foreign oil in the short term, while continuing to develop alternative energy will allow for less reliance on oil in the long term.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Ringold on 7/1/2008 5:38:20 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
Drilling will increase supply and decrease dependence on foreign oil in the short term, while continuing to develop alternative energy will allow for less reliance on oil in the long term.


There are at least half a dozen regular posters who for whom that is far too moderate and rational. They'd call that a farce, and that we should be spamming solar and wind anywhere and everywhere. Anything that resembles a feasible, real-world solution goes down in flames. It's depressing.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By danrien on 7/1/08, Rating: -1
RE: All Hail The Sun God
By FITCamaro on 7/2/2008 7:54:46 AM , Rating: 2
Oh so now its 15-20 years. Funny. The Democrats first said it'd be 5 years. Then it was 10 years. And funny, it was 5-10 years ago when they said that.

So if we'd started drilling off the cost back in 1998 when it was last really brought up, but shot down by Clinton because it'd take 10 years to get going, we'd have that oil now.

I realize this common sense is a little to much for you though.

Liberals can keep spouting that it'll take 10 years all they want. The sooner we get started, the sooner it'll be here.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By FITCamaro on 7/2/2008 7:55:47 AM , Rating: 2
coast*


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Master Kenobi (blog) on 7/2/2008 10:54:21 AM , Rating: 2
They need to get started drilling now. They need to get started building new Nuclear power plants. Geothermal where its feasible. I even support the use of tidal generators which I think are superior in every way to wind based power.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By masher2 (blog) on 7/2/2008 11:29:05 AM , Rating: 3
In certain areas, tidal power indeed has vast potential. Unfortunately, environmentalists protest against it as much as they do any other practical energy source, due to the fact it might affect siltification in the area around the generators.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By FITCamaro on 7/2/2008 12:55:26 PM , Rating: 2
The only thing with tidal power is that from what I've read it can pretty much kill off fish and stuff in that area. I don't know all the details though. I'm not against it. But if it does kill off pretty much all marine life in an area, that's a bad thing.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Boze on 7/3/2008 4:02:31 PM , Rating: 2
I couldn't agree more with you on the nuclear energy front, Kenobi. According to DOE reports from a few years back, it would only take 500 or so nuclear power plants to supply 100% of our nation's electrical power. We already have around 100 plants running in the nation, so that's 400 more... in addition, most of the running plants are older and less efficient than the newer model plants that nuclear engineers have designed, so the 500 number could be off.

On top of all this, we have a long-term storage solution for the nuclear waste in development right now, in a region of the United States that sees almost no rainfall with practically zero issues of groundwater contamination (Yucca Mountain), and in terms of transporting the waste, the shipping casks for spent fuel rods are damn near indestructible. Nuclear energy may finally start to see its place in the forefront of American energy policy.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By redsquid5 on 7/2/08, Rating: -1
RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Grast on 7/2/2008 3:09:42 PM , Rating: 2
Red,

We are not screwing our kids. The success of our economy requires a cheap economical source of energy. As soon realize that nuclear is the ONLY economical and realistic source for cheap electricity. The sooner we will be able to migrate away from fossil fuels.

If we had a viable cheap source of electricity, a number of technologies are economically viable to replace oil.

1. Hydrogen Generation
2. Electric vehicles with a range greater than 60 miles.

Let’s look at this dream world. If electrical power was a .2 cents a kilowatt hour and generate enough power for these needs, we could eliminate oil.

1. Electrolysis of Water for Hydrogen economy - This allows the use of fuel cells to supplement battery power. Hey now we do not need the internal combustion engine for virtually all forms of transportation. Cars, Heavy Movers, Trains They all could be used as currently designed with fuel cells.

2. Desantilization Plants - Source of clean water for power and further industrial use. This could actually provide cheap drinking water and irrigation water for the use. No more debate on dams and man made lakes.

3. The elimination of gas, wood, and fuel oil for the heating of our houses. Combine this with modern insulation; we have comfortable houses in the winter and summer.

The only thing that a cheap and abundant form of electricity can not provide is a replacement for air travel. I just have not heard of replacement for jet fuel.

In end, my humble opinion is that if you want to really provide a better environment and economy for your children. Demand the building of more nuclear power plants. Demand the immediate drilling of more resource at home. Those resources will keep our economy going and allow the 10 years need to build the infrastructure needed for power independence


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By bjacobson on 7/2/2008 4:52:52 PM , Rating: 2
I do believe ethanol can replace oil for jet engines, it would just take some work. It's definitely doable though.

http://www.google.com/search?q=ethanol+in+jet+engi...


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By TSS on 7/3/2008 1:36:40 PM , Rating: 2
yknow i wonder how much oil is actually used by vehicles/transportation/creating energy, and how much is used up by creating materials like plastics. there's more stuff to do with oil then just burn it yknow. dependancy on oil might not go away that easely.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By excelsium on 7/3/2008 2:55:28 PM , Rating: 2
Plastic and plastic substitutes can be made with corn oil and other things.. so really It's transportation that is the big concern.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Grast on 7/2/2008 2:54:33 PM , Rating: 2
Danien,

Based on that logic.

What go to College this morning? I am not getting my degree, NOW!
Why go to work? My paycheck is not being delivered today?

In fact, why do anything! I should stay in bed and just die since anything I do will take time to mature and provide a measurable response.

I was about to say IF, but when we start drilling for oil again domestically, It should have several factors you have missed.

1. Discover unknown quantities of oil.
2. Employee a large number of American oil workers.
3. Assist in the speculation market by showing a growning future supply rather than a decreasing supply.
4. Reduce future price increases and allow more time for vialble and economical alternatives...... NUCLEAR.
5. Novel concept, the exportation of a valuable resource which brings money into the country.

I see no downsides for drilling and finding new sources of oil. I refuse to allow your fear mongering effect my life style and culture.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Keeir on 7/2/2008 3:13:30 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I was about to say IF, but when we start drilling for oil again domestically, It should have several factors you have missed.


Its already happening. In california, a state with significant enviromental restriction, new well applications are running up 10-20% and permints to rework old wells are up significnat as well.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By maven81 on 7/2/2008 6:07:34 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I see no downsides for drilling and finding new sources of oil.


You mean like the obvious, purely delaying the inevitable, and spending resources on something that can not be sustained?
Sure, I see that plenty of you think that it's possible to drill for oil and develop new sources of energy at the same time, but I don't think that's how the world works... Where is the incentive for anyone to invest in nuclear then? If you reduce the price of oil, how can you hope to limit consumption?
It took 4 dollar a gallon gas to get people to seriously think about conservation. If you drop it back to 3 dollars I guarantee you that everyone will just go back to living like there's no tomorrow, and those nuclear plants we all want will never get built.
Now if gas prices get to 10 dollars we just might get people to beg for nuclear, tidal and whatever else.
If you truly believe in market forces, I can't see how you can support this. It's absolutely no better economically then the braindead "gas tax holiday".


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By masher2 (blog) on 7/2/2008 7:12:33 PM , Rating: 5
> "You mean like the obvious, purely delaying the inevitable"

When a doctor saves a life, he's doing nothing but delaying that patient's inevitable death. Is that a bad thing?

> "If you truly believe in market forces, I can't see how you can support this"

Here's the part you're missing. Market forces find the optimal solution. When we step in and artificlally distort the market, that doesn't happen.

The best solution here is obviously a mix of different energy sources. Artificially restricting the price of oil means we wind up with a nonoptimal mix. Yes, it means more alternative sources are used. But the downside is energy costs are much higher than they need to be, which results in serious hardship. You can beg for $10/gallon gas if you want, but do you think the middle class in India or China can afford that?

The problem is even deeper than that. The wealth we squander by forcing energy costs up is wealth we could have used to research improvements in alternatives. Do you see Zimbabwe or Mali funding much research into fusion technology? No? Why not? It takes a rich nation to do that...and as long as we're pumping trillions of dollars of cash overseas, we're going to have a hard time funding projects like that.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By excelsium on 7/3/2008 5:48:32 AM , Rating: 2
Market forces? There will be a desperate rush for action when oil reserves run low along with a huge price tag and all the other negative things- If money is not spent on those alternative projects earlier.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By dever on 7/7/2008 1:49:27 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Market forces? There will be a desperate rush for action when oil reserves run low along with a huge price tag and all the other negative things- If money is not spent on those alternative projects earlier.

Your scenarios have no relevance to free market economies. "desperate rushes" occur when forces external to the market act on products and industries.

When consumers are allowed to freely buy what they feel is in their best interest, the price structure will have the optimal reflection of these scarce resources and will change slowly over the course of decades and centuries. It's only when external forces interfere (typically government policies, taxes and restrictions) that the fluctuations become unpredictable and unmanageable.

The current price fluctuations we see have almost no relation to the world's natural oil reserves. These fluctuations have everything to do with external forces... mostly the middle East ologopoly that is left unchallanged due to restrictive government policies in much of the rest of the world.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Jim28 on 7/2/2008 11:17:31 PM , Rating: 2
Cry me a river.

Just think of this. By limiting energy consumption,
you have limited an idvidual's ability to transport themselves around the town,country, planet. You have limited that person's freedom to go anywhere they please, when they please. (In my not so humble opinion, that is a basic freedom, one in which the economy is based on.) You don't like the freedoms that we have and the economy results from it? Go somewhere and live off the land (Like Chad, or the solomons) Go live in that hellhole for awhile. In two weeks you will be back and you will shut up.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Grast on 7/3/2008 1:28:08 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Sure, I see that plenty of you think that it's possible to drill for oil and develop new sources of energy at the same time, but I don't think that's how the world works... Where is the incentive for anyone to invest in nuclear then? If you reduce the price of oil, how can you hope to limit consumption?


Firstly, the reliance on oil has nothing to do with the provitablility of nuclear power. Nuclear power has been stalled in this country for two reasons. Government execessive regulation for permitting new plants and/or operating and excessive judicial challanges to proposed new plants. The goverment portion could be solved by one good president. The department of energy is run and directly by a presidential appointment. If regulations were brought into line to allow safe but quick permitting of new plants (1-3 years rather than 5-8 years), that would be one less reason for power companies to not decide against a nuclear project.

The second issue is of judicial predijuce which can only be solved by education. We need an organization which has the same will as many eco-group and the money to back up their policies. A 457 group during the presidential race sounds about right. We should be seeing commercials and news reports right now of how nuclear could save every American tons of money and stimulate our economy. A reliable and cheap power grid would allow electric cars to become a true replacement for the internal combustion engine. This would put nuclear power on the forefront on American thoughts and hopefully reduce the ability of eco-nuts from challaging every decision about the nuclear plants in the courts.

If the building of nuclear plans was made a FEDERAL mandate. The judical process could be stream lined by removing state judical review from the picture. Congress and the Senate could pass new legistation for the creation of a special judical panel specific for nuclear review. The president would then appoint judges willing to assist the endevour and limit the ability of special interest groups from blocking the construction of nuclear plants.

In the end, your argument that cheap oil is the reason nuclear power is not developed is short sighted. Nuclear plants have not been built in this country because it is not provitable to wade through the goverment red tape and relentless court challenges by special interest groups. Investors are not willing to spend 100s of millions of dollars jumping through the hoops in order to construct the plant and not realise their investment for 10's of years after the completion of the project.

We need the goverment and the judicial portions of our society to get out of the way.

Energy independance is the only way our children are going to continue to live the same quality of life as we do.

Later....


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By phxfreddy on 7/19/2008 3:44:02 PM , Rating: 2
With the dollar in slow motion collapse you and liberals like you will sooner or later with 100% probability be begging for coastal / ANWR drilling.

Simply put Alternative energy sources are still called alternative and by definition NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME.

When you no longer call this crap alternative then come back and give it another try at selling the idea.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By Brian H on 7/18/2008 7:02:47 PM , Rating: 1
Actually, not so. There's lots of supply now; pricing is being set by dealers convinced they won't have supply later, and are refusing to sell now at less that what they expect to get then. If you change the "later" expectation, you affect current spot prices.

BTW, as of this writing, consumption has dropped significantly in the US, and oil prices have taken a 10% hit.


RE: All Hail The Sun God
By phxfreddy on 7/19/2008 3:39:50 PM , Rating: 2
Huh ? You gotta be on one side YES or NO of the question ....do you still beat your wife ? LOL !


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