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The image of a hurricane-spawning smokestack was used to promote the film, An Inconvenient Truth.
Author of the theory that global warming breeds stronger hurricanes recants his view

Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.

"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.

The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.

Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms.  In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.

His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives.  Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling.  The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.

Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.



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RE: Y2k Oh my
By porkpie on 4/16/2008 10:05:22 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Yes, as this latest report seems to confirm
Thats not a report and it doesn't "confirm" anything. It's just yet another computer model.

The actual data shows sea level rise is still going up at the same slow rate it has for thousands of years.


RE: Y2k Oh my
By Andy35W on 4/17/2008 2:12:03 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Thats not a report and it doesn't "confirm" anything. It's just yet another computer model.The actual data shows sea level rise is still going up at the same slow rate it has for thousands of years.


There is no data for the future, unless you have a time machine, so your point on current data is not relevant. It is a forecast and the forecast is that current estimates on the rise are probably too low.


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