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The image of a hurricane-spawning smokestack was used to promote the film, An Inconvenient Truth.
Author of the theory that global warming breeds stronger hurricanes recants his view

Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.

"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.

The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.

Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms.  In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.

His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives.  Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling.  The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.

Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.



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RE: Ocean and Ice
By Michael01x on 4/16/2008 8:00:01 AM , Rating: 2
AGW theory does not require that temperature rise in lockstep with CO2. AGW theory is that CO2 is a human induced climate forcing toward warming that is continuing to rise and is not cyclical, as opposed to natural forcings.

These natural forcings can work either in concert with the CO2 forcing from manmade emissions or in opposition to it. Natural variations such as a decline in solar activity and La Nina will work in opposition for short durations. As a result, it is not uncommon or unexpected to see a short term leveling of temperature or even a decline. But, once again, these are for short durations during the existence of these conditions. As you might expect, the opposite of these cycles, El Nino and high solar activity, reinforce AGW and drive temperatures higher.

As others have noted here, we have already seen several cycles of El Nino/La Nina and the 11-year solar cycle, and the long term temperature trend throughout the industrial era has been upward.

The RSS satellite temperature data you link is exactly what you would expect to see from anthropogenic warming, a warming of the lower atmosphere and a cooling of the upper atmosphere. Were the long term temperature rise due to solar activity, the stratospheric temperature would be rising along with the tropospheric temperature, but that is not what we are seeing.


RE: Ocean and Ice
By porkpie on 4/16/2008 10:16:21 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
the long term temperature trend throughout the industrial era has been upward.
That warming trend started over 250 years ago though, long before we were generating CO2 in bulk. How do you explain that?

quote:
The RSS satellite temperature data you link is exactly what you would expect to see from anthropogenic warming
No it isn't. AGW predicts the troposphere should warm much faster than the surface. It isn't.


RE: Ocean and Ice
By Michael01x on 4/17/2008 7:02:16 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
That warming trend started over 250 years ago though, long before we were generating CO2 in bulk. How do you explain that?
With a dramatic upswing after the start of the industrial era.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a...
quote:
No it isn't. AGW predicts the troposphere should warm much faster than the surface. It isn't.
The related RSS link displays temperature data at various levels of the atmosphere, reflecting tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, as expected from AGW.

As for tropospheric temperatures rising faster than surface temperatures, that depends on latitude.

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=17645...
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007...


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