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The image of a hurricane-spawning smokestack was used to promote the film, An Inconvenient Truth.
Author of the theory that global warming breeds stronger hurricanes recants his view

Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.

"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.

The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.

Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms.  In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.

His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives.  Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling.  The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.

Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.



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RE: Y2k Oh my
By onelittleindian on 4/14/2008 12:56:12 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
In the past 50 years, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase
That peninsula (a tiny part of Antarctica) is right on top of an active volcano region also.

The rest of Antarctica (the vast majority) has been cooling the past 50 years. That's something GW can't explain.


RE: Y2k Oh my
By Andy35W on 4/16/2008 2:32:41 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
That peninsula (a tiny part of Antarctica) is right on top of an active volcano region also.The rest of Antarctica (the vast majority) has been cooling the past 50 years. That's something GW can't explain.


It's hardly a tiny part, it's over a thousand miles long for a start. Secondly there is no actual proof volcanic activity is associated with the increase in temperature.

You have to also consider that the Antartic is unqiue in both being completely surrounded and insulated by ocean which has a constant weather patern and that there is an Ozone hole in that region that reduces temperatures.


RE: Y2k Oh my
By porkpie on 4/16/2008 10:10:41 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
It's hardly a tiny part
It's a tiny part compared to Antarctica as a whole. Open a map sometime.

quote:
there is an Ozone hole in that region that reduces temperatures.
You have it backwards. Low temperatures reduce ozone, not the other way around.


RE: Y2k Oh my
By Andy35W on 4/17/2008 2:25:53 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
You have it backwards. Low temperatures reduce ozone, not the other way around.


No, you have it wrong. Ozone is a greenhouse gas and therefore reduced ozone as per the Antartic is one possible reason why the Antartic has not increased in temperature compared to other parts of the world, as I said before.


RE: Y2k Oh my
By PlasmaBomb on 5/1/2008 9:51:47 AM , Rating: 2
Sorry - cooling produces a relative increase in ozone (O3) depletion and the frequency of ozone holes.


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