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The image of a hurricane-spawning smokestack was used to promote the film, An Inconvenient Truth.
Author of the theory that global warming breeds stronger hurricanes recants his view

Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.

"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.

The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.

Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms.  In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.

His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives.  Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling.  The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.

Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.

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RE: Effect
By cochy on 4/14/2008 12:32:28 PM , Rating: 2
Global Warming is going the way of Y2K and the Ozone Hole.

Ozone depletion was a serious problem that is being corrected thanks to the international ban on CFCs (Montreal Protocol, hurray for Montreal=)

It was a serious problem. No ozone no life.

RE: Effect
By johnsonx on 4/14/2008 1:09:23 PM , Rating: 1
no, wrong. They've recently figured out that the chemical reactions blamed on CFC's were in fact not occurring, and that CFC's were banned for nothing. Funny thing though, everyone who incurred costs for the CFC ban doesn't get any money back now that it all turned out to be bull excrement.

RE: Effect
By bonerici on 4/14/2008 1:59:44 PM , Rating: 4
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are responsible for the majority of observed stratospheric ozone depletion. These gases had been used as refrigerants and solvents as well as propellants in aerosol cans. Although CFCs are nonreactive in the troposphere, they can be slowly transported to the stratosphere where they break down into molecules such as chlorine monoxide (ClO), which depletes ozone by transforming it back into oxygen gas. The Montreal Protocol has banned production of CFCs throughout the world, and the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to fully recover over the next 50 to 100 years.

Ross J. Salawitch, a senior research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., writing for scientific american

RE: Effect
By geddarkstorm on 4/14/2008 2:51:37 PM , Rating: 5
The ozone layer was only ever affected over Antarctica during about three months out of the year while a very peculiar, Antarctica specific event was occurring, known as the Polar Vortex. Watch actual year time laps images of Ozone levels across the globe, and compare them across the decades we've been watching it. I did that just to find out what was going on, and it is surprising.

Again, no where but Antarctica where the polar vortex occurs, during the few months when it occurs, was ever touched by ozone depletion (coincidentally, there's a MASSIVE buildup of ozone around the ozone hole that only exists and when and looks to be proportional to the hole when it's around). This is because the conditions unique in the polar vortex activate CFCs and other chlorine containing molecules which otherwise are inert in the atmosphere--but also bring the Ozone layer and those molecules together where otherwise they sit at different altitudes as measured by weather balloons.

So it's a combination of many factors that limits the hole only to the Antarctic. Though, no one has ever explained why there's such a build up of ozone around the edges of the hole.

Finally, the ozone reaction itself is constantly created via UV radiation in an equilibrium reaction. This means that as ozone levels go down, the kinetic rate of its formation goes up so that the equilibrium is maintained. Likewise, if ozone concentrations go up too far, the rate of its breakdown increases.

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