Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.
"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.
The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.
Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms. In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.
His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives. Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling. The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.
In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.
Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.
Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.
quote: Yes, as this latest report seems to confirm
quote: Thats not a report and it doesn't "confirm" anything. It's just yet another computer model.The actual data shows sea level rise is still going up at the same slow rate it has for thousands of years.
quote: The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reporters from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers [all] point to a radical change in clmatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temerpatures in that part of the Earth's surface....Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted.
quote: The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway...Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
quote: Did we prevent the Manhatten Project from going forward until every citizen understood nuclear theory?
quote: In the past 50 years, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase
quote: That peninsula (a tiny part of Antarctica) is right on top of an active volcano region also.The rest of Antarctica (the vast majority) has been cooling the past 50 years. That's something GW can't explain.
quote: It's hardly a tiny part
quote: there is an Ozone hole in that region that reduces temperatures.
quote: You have it backwards. Low temperatures reduce ozone, not the other way around.