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The image of a hurricane-spawning smokestack was used to promote the film, An Inconvenient Truth.
Author of the theory that global warming breeds stronger hurricanes recants his view

Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.

"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.

The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.

Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms.  In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.

His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives.  Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling.  The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.

In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.

Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.



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Effect
By RIPPolaris on 4/13/2008 4:41:01 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.


I have the feeling that most politicians will ignore this..




RE: Effect
By onwisconsin on 4/13/2008 5:51:41 PM , Rating: 5
They won't listen to you but they'll listen to Ben Franklin and his good friends Washington, Jackson...etc ;)


RE: Effect
By professor1942 on 4/13/2008 7:54:38 PM , Rating: 5
Global Warming is going the way of Y2K and the Ozone Hole.

New scare please. I'm bored.


RE: Effect
By bennie1973 on 4/13/08, Rating: -1
RE: Effect
By djkrypplephite on 4/13/2008 11:23:56 PM , Rating: 5
Haha yeah. Actually I can't tell if you're serious or not. Please be joking.


RE: Effect
By phxfreddy on 4/14/2008 8:10:51 AM , Rating: 3
He's joking and serious at the same time. And its a great comment.

New Scare Please! Take this one back...its boring and does not match my shoes.

--Sol Rosenberg--


RE: Effect
By Misty Dingos on 4/14/2008 8:40:44 AM , Rating: 5
What is tragic is the lack of scientific literacy in this country. If just half the people that think like you had any real science clue, you would realize that global warming is a fantasy. Al Gore, the UN, leading you down the primrose path. They are charlatans, idiots and liars.

But it all boils down to this, if you want people to listen to you now days you scare them. Scare the hell out of people and they will listen. It is as simple as that. The news does it. The politicians do it. The priests, imams, and rabbis do it. Hell advertisers do it too. The New World Order is run by are the Aristocracy of Fear.

No I am not suggesting that there is some star chamber filled with the powerful elite guiding the next panic campaign. Don’t want to be manipulated by the AOF? Educate yourself.


RE: Effect
By Michael01x on 4/14/08, Rating: -1
RE: Effect
By jcrash on 4/14/08, Rating: 0
RE: Effect
By omnicronx on 4/14/2008 3:58:53 PM , Rating: 4
quote:
Tell you what...go make camp on a couple thousand year old glacier in greenland. If your camp is still there in 5 years, you are right. If it isn't (and it won't be), then you are thankfully removed from the gene pool and we know you were wrong.
And thats when you realize, 90% of the worlds ice is located in antarctica, and it although the ice is is melting at a faster pace, no more of this melted ice is actually reaching the ocean than 100 years ago.

Greenland has been melting for thousands of years, at one point it was probably covered in 2x the amount of ice. As we are not dead yet from all this ice melting, I think you may be overreacting.

The Artic, although Al Gore supporters will not agree, does not contain enough ice for what you are proposing, plain and simple.


RE: Effect
By Misty Dingos on 4/14/2008 4:59:06 PM , Rating: 2
This is exactly what I was talking about. Blind fear. Fear of the world not being what you want or expect. This is fear driven into your brain by people that have some axe to grind or agenda.

IF global warming happens in it's worst case vision, sea levels will rise approximately 66 meters (at worst 75 meters) and it will take at least 400 (more likely several thousand) years to happen. If the Northwest Passage opens we will be able to engage in commerce more easily with nations of the pacific. Why do you think people looked for it for so long?

Four hundred years ago they were founding Quebec City and the Jamestown colony. A functional telescope was demonstrated in Dutch parliament. How much will the world change in the next 400 years?

Please get a grip.


RE: Effect
By maverick85wd on 4/14/2008 7:34:51 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Al Gore, the UN.... They are charlatans, idiots and liars


6!!!


RE: Effect
By cochy on 4/14/2008 12:32:28 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Global Warming is going the way of Y2K and the Ozone Hole.


Ozone depletion was a serious problem that is being corrected thanks to the international ban on CFCs (Montreal Protocol, hurray for Montreal=)

It was a serious problem. No ozone no life.


RE: Effect
By johnsonx on 4/14/2008 1:09:23 PM , Rating: 1
no, wrong. They've recently figured out that the chemical reactions blamed on CFC's were in fact not occurring, and that CFC's were banned for nothing. Funny thing though, everyone who incurred costs for the CFC ban doesn't get any money back now that it all turned out to be bull excrement.


RE: Effect
By bonerici on 4/14/2008 1:59:44 PM , Rating: 4
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are responsible for the majority of observed stratospheric ozone depletion. These gases had been used as refrigerants and solvents as well as propellants in aerosol cans. Although CFCs are nonreactive in the troposphere, they can be slowly transported to the stratosphere where they break down into molecules such as chlorine monoxide (ClO), which depletes ozone by transforming it back into oxygen gas. The Montreal Protocol has banned production of CFCs throughout the world, and the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to fully recover over the next 50 to 100 years.

Ross J. Salawitch, a senior research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., writing for scientific american


RE: Effect
By geddarkstorm on 4/14/2008 2:51:37 PM , Rating: 5
The ozone layer was only ever affected over Antarctica during about three months out of the year while a very peculiar, Antarctica specific event was occurring, known as the Polar Vortex. Watch actual year time laps images of Ozone levels across the globe, and compare them across the decades we've been watching it. I did that just to find out what was going on, and it is surprising.

Again, no where but Antarctica where the polar vortex occurs, during the few months when it occurs, was ever touched by ozone depletion (coincidentally, there's a MASSIVE buildup of ozone around the ozone hole that only exists and when and looks to be proportional to the hole when it's around). This is because the conditions unique in the polar vortex activate CFCs and other chlorine containing molecules which otherwise are inert in the atmosphere--but also bring the Ozone layer and those molecules together where otherwise they sit at different altitudes as measured by weather balloons.

So it's a combination of many factors that limits the hole only to the Antarctic. Though, no one has ever explained why there's such a build up of ozone around the edges of the hole.

Finally, the ozone reaction itself is constantly created via UV radiation in an equilibrium reaction. This means that as ozone levels go down, the kinetic rate of its formation goes up so that the equilibrium is maintained. Likewise, if ozone concentrations go up too far, the rate of its breakdown increases.


RE: Effect
By Polynikes on 4/15/2008 11:19:10 AM , Rating: 1
Or how about we stop being childish and focus our energies and money on something worthwhile, like fixing the disparity of wealth in this country, or fixing the healthcare system, or social security...

Why do I even bother? Nobody wants to fix real problems, they like to make up sensational pieces of fiction to get money for themselves.


"Well, there may be a reason why they call them 'Mac' trucks! Windows machines will not be trucks." -- Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer

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