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Global warming may not be the culprit after all when it comes to Artic changes

Climate data can be difficult to analyze. Take for instance global temperature changes. Whereas the Northern Hemisphere has been warming, the Southern half of the planet is cooling. While Antarctic Ice is at near-record levels, the Northern Pole is warming at an unprecedented pace-- much faster than global warming models predict.

A new study published in the journal Nature identified a possible cause for this discrepancy. It identifies a natural, cyclical flow of atmospheric energy around the Arctic Circle. A team of researchers, led by Rune Graversen of Stockholm University, conclude this energy flow may be responsible for the majority of recent Arctic warming.

The study specifically rules out global warming or albedo changes from snow and ice loss as the cause, due to the "vertical structure" of the warming ... the observed warming has been much too weak near the ground, and too high in the stratosphere and upper troposphere.

This study follows hot on the heels of research by NASA, which identified "unusual winds" for rapid Arctic ice retreat. The wind patterns, set up by atmospheric conditions from the Arctic Oscillation, began rapidly pushing ice into the Transpolar Drift Stream, a current which quickly sped the ice into warmer waters.

A second NASA team, using data from the the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, recently concluded that changes in the Arctic Oscillation were "mostly decadal in nature", rather than driven by global warming.



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RE: Wrong again Masher
By modelmania on 1/8/2008 12:00:01 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
But the models we have right now are our best tools to explain what is happening and what will happen in the future.


This is circular nonsense to put it kindly. How can models be our "best tools to explain what is happening and what will happen"???????????????

Especially, when we:

a. Know for sure (100% certainty) that the models are wrong.
b. Know that the models have never predicted anything accurately.
c. Know that the models do not even match the past accurately.

Models and theories are only useful for predicting the future when they are proven to be extremely accurate over large domains of testing (as for example the General Theory of Relativity has proven to be a good theory).

The models to which you refer have repeatedly been shown to fail in major ways.

Most recently, for example, Douglass, Christy, Pearson and Singer point out in their paper "A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions" published in Oct 2007 International Journal of Climatology:

quote:
The last 25 years constitute a period of more complete and accurate observations and more realistic modeling efforts. Yet the models are seen to disagree with the observations. We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution.


To read the whole paper and see the massive failure of the models (all of them): http://static.scribd.com/docs/1q509sc82p1lh.swf


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