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Global warming may not be the culprit after all when it comes to Artic changes

Climate data can be difficult to analyze. Take for instance global temperature changes. Whereas the Northern Hemisphere has been warming, the Southern half of the planet is cooling. While Antarctic Ice is at near-record levels, the Northern Pole is warming at an unprecedented pace-- much faster than global warming models predict.

A new study published in the journal Nature identified a possible cause for this discrepancy. It identifies a natural, cyclical flow of atmospheric energy around the Arctic Circle. A team of researchers, led by Rune Graversen of Stockholm University, conclude this energy flow may be responsible for the majority of recent Arctic warming.

The study specifically rules out global warming or albedo changes from snow and ice loss as the cause, due to the "vertical structure" of the warming ... the observed warming has been much too weak near the ground, and too high in the stratosphere and upper troposphere.

This study follows hot on the heels of research by NASA, which identified "unusual winds" for rapid Arctic ice retreat. The wind patterns, set up by atmospheric conditions from the Arctic Oscillation, began rapidly pushing ice into the Transpolar Drift Stream, a current which quickly sped the ice into warmer waters.

A second NASA team, using data from the the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, recently concluded that changes in the Arctic Oscillation were "mostly decadal in nature", rather than driven by global warming.

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By rninneman on 1/7/2008 9:03:03 PM , Rating: 2
Irony is, most ecochondriacs are still trumpeting 1998 as the warmest year on record, when 1934 actually is the warmest year on record.

Your "top 11 warmest years all in the last 13 years" is false. Only 3 of the warmest years on record were in the last 13. 5 of the top ten were before WWII!

Why would they not want to acknowledge this though? Probably because it only further diminishes the possibility of AGW.

By Andy35W on 1/8/2008 11:56:20 AM , Rating: 2
Warmest year globally? Do you have a figure for that? I am taking details from the Internet so mine could be wrong, but as this is about Met Office in general and their predictions I can really only use one source.

Looking at

I can't see 1934 at all on that graph.

One thing I do not like about that graph is the colours it picks, for the 1990's onwards it picks a hot colour, for earlier years it picks a cold colour .. talk about subjective impressionism ! tut tut. They should all be in black and the only thing that matters is the distance up the Y axis.

By rninneman on 1/10/2008 3:38:19 PM , Rating: 2

That is the NASA study I was referring to which happens to be the darling of the IPCC. The original data from NASA also confirmed 1998 was the warmest on record, but someone analyzing the data realized the data had been analyzed by code that was not Y2k compliant. How pathetic is that?

Good point about the colors chosen on your link.

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