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Global warming may not be the culprit after all when it comes to Artic changes

Climate data can be difficult to analyze. Take for instance global temperature changes. Whereas the Northern Hemisphere has been warming, the Southern half of the planet is cooling. While Antarctic Ice is at near-record levels, the Northern Pole is warming at an unprecedented pace-- much faster than global warming models predict.

A new study published in the journal Nature identified a possible cause for this discrepancy. It identifies a natural, cyclical flow of atmospheric energy around the Arctic Circle. A team of researchers, led by Rune Graversen of Stockholm University, conclude this energy flow may be responsible for the majority of recent Arctic warming.

The study specifically rules out global warming or albedo changes from snow and ice loss as the cause, due to the "vertical structure" of the warming ... the observed warming has been much too weak near the ground, and too high in the stratosphere and upper troposphere.

This study follows hot on the heels of research by NASA, which identified "unusual winds" for rapid Arctic ice retreat. The wind patterns, set up by atmospheric conditions from the Arctic Oscillation, began rapidly pushing ice into the Transpolar Drift Stream, a current which quickly sped the ice into warmer waters.

A second NASA team, using data from the the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, recently concluded that changes in the Arctic Oscillation were "mostly decadal in nature", rather than driven by global warming.

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By Murst on 1/4/2008 11:58:41 AM , Rating: 4

Sorry to ask this question, but now I'm completely confused by your articles.

Prior to this article, you seemed to have taken a position that there isn't really any warming in the arctic. I seem to remember how you had an article about how the ice is growing, not shrinking.

Now, you have an article about how the warming is natural, which would seem to indicate that you do in fact believe that warming exists. If this was your stance all along, your previous articles would have been misleading (and that's w/ a generous interpretation).

Or pehaps I'm missing something. Are you trying to imply that we're seeing a buildup in ice at the same time as the arctic warms?

RE: Explanation?
By masher2 on 1/4/2008 12:16:42 PM , Rating: 2
> "Prior to this article, you seemed to have taken a position that there isn't really any warming in the arctic"

No warming in the ANTarctic. I believe you're referring to this article, which identified strong sea ice growth in Antarctica:

The North Pole, however, is a different matter entirely. There isn't any discrepancy in the stories.

RE: Explanation?
By Murst on 1/4/2008 12:22:33 PM , Rating: 2
Hmm... ok, I'll buy that.

So it may be more accurate to say that global warming doesn't exist.

However, we have northern hemisphere warming and southern hemisphere cooling, with their average slightly leaning to the warming side? Or is that not really accurate either?

RE: Explanation?
By masher2 on 1/4/2008 12:35:25 PM , Rating: 2
The global trend obviously depends on the time period examined, as well as any adjustments, if any, made for urbanization effects on land surface readings, instrumentation changes over the period in question, and a huge number of factors.

Taken since 1998, the average for the planet as a whole has been flat (no increase nor decrease), according to data from the British Met Office:

According to data from James Hansen's GISS center, which does far more "massaging" of the raw temperature data, there is still a slight increase in the trend.

RE: Explanation?
By eye smite on 1/4/2008 1:09:36 PM , Rating: 2
But what we're really saying here is there isn't enough historical data recorded to make any kind of prediction on global warming or cooling. The weather in this case is following it's unpredicable nature because hey, science and technology still can't predict weather trends. Science is still in it's infancy, no scientist, professor or techy knows near as much as they think they do. Hey did you know they still say bigfoot doesn't exist yet since 2000 they have discovered 26 new breeds of primates. People still think they know everything, posh. OMG there's a toad now in Loch Ness that has gills and has been observed and even captured and it exists some 300 ft below the surface of the lake. Every day mankind proves how little it knows.

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