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WD sees two categories for SSD market including low-end and high-end realms

Western Digital isn’t alone in taking a cautious approach to the SSD market. As one of the biggest makers of hard drives, it's easy to see why Western Digital (WD) would want to protect its investments in traditional HDDs until the market for SSDs is more mature and clear.

WD’s SVP for marketing says that the company hasn't ruled out entering the SSD market -- it is simply waiting for the appropriate opportunity to do so. Rutledge is quoted by The Register saying, "Western Digital enters markets that exist, announces products when they are available, and runs a tight model with opportunities greater than resources such that we take a controlled, methodical, sequential, incremental approach to product portfolio expansion."

WD sees two interesting SSD markets that include low-end and high-end. The low-end is described as the market for SSDs that retail for under $30 and are used in consumer handheld mobile platforms like phones and cameras. The high-end market is described as SSDs aimed at performance applications where the drivers are over $199 each.

Rutledge thinks that a new category of consumer handheld mobile platforms will crop up that slot in between the typical smartphone and the netbook. The platform would have a larger screen that the smartphone in the area of 7-inches to 9-inches, but smaller than that of the netbook. The product category is dubbed “smartbook” by Rutledge.

Rutledge likens the difference between SSDs and HDDs to car engines. He says that hard drives are good for mainstream performance in cost, power and performance making them the four, six and eight cylinder engines of the storage world. The NAND based SSD is good for use in very small one of two cylinder engines and V10 and larger high-performance applications.

The crux here is that WD is playing a wait and see game with the SSD market, much like Seagate. When it is clear that the SSD has a niche and is profitable WD will jump in with both feet.



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At this point...
By Larrymon2000 on 11/24/2008 12:59:20 PM , Rating: 5
The only thing to DO is to enter the SSD market. They're finally entering mainstream usage in Eee/MSI Wind PCs, Macbooks and high-end computers. It's only a short matter of time before your neighborhood Best Buy is carrying sub-1k PC packages with these drives.




RE: At this point...
By HaZaRd2K6 on 11/24/2008 1:41:36 PM , Rating: 5
I don't think you'll see PC packages with SSDs just yet, as the capacities are still too small for use in standard desktop PCs (when you consider Acer and HP are releasing desktops with 1TB+ storage already) and high-capacity drives are still ridiculously expensive (just look at that Samsung SSD from a few days back).

For laptops, though, yes I completely agree. Big box stores will be carrying laptops with SSDs in the very near future.


RE: At this point...
By Clauzii on 11/24/2008 4:50:04 PM , Rating: 3
It will make sense if they'd come with a 64/128 SSD for OS and 1/2-1 TB as data-drive. (Not the cheapest systems yet, of course).


RE: At this point...
By xphile on 11/24/2008 6:34:36 PM , Rating: 3
Precisely - its a bit like the auto makers investing in Hybrid car technology, everybody knows its only a matter of time before you wont be able to sell a petrol based car at all. Not today or tomorrow sure - but it IS going to happen. Governed for fact by the simply issue there that whatever the oil price might get to - eventually there wont be any left at all.

Likewise moving part storage technology simply will not last - no matter how fast nor how capacious it WILL be replaced, the only question is when. SSD will in time be faster, more secure, more effective and more efficient. Like so many things one will simply phase out the other in due course.

You dont want to be the one left with the 78rpm gramophone shop when everyone else is furious selling ipods.


RE: At this point...
By Dwayno on 11/24/2008 8:59:25 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
Precisely - its a bit like the auto makers investing in Hybrid car technology, everybody knows its only a matter of time before you wont be able to sell a petrol based car at all. Not today or tomorrow sure - but it IS going to happen.

Er...a Hybrid IS a petrol powered car that shares it's petrol engine with an electric motor.


RE: At this point...
By Ish718 on 11/24/2008 9:03:25 PM , Rating: 2
He said petro based
keyword: based

And hybrids are not strictly petro based vehicles


RE: At this point...
By spread on 11/25/2008 6:29:14 PM , Rating: 2
Yes we know. That's why they are called Hybrid.


RE: At this point...
By Oregonian2 on 11/25/2008 9:32:09 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
And hybrids are not strictly petro based vehicles


The normal prius sort of hybrid are pure petroleum based automobiles.

Think, where does 100% of the energy come from that powers a Prius? Answer: gasoline.

The commonly sold hybrid's are just sold as a more efficient gasoline car, not a non-gas car.

When plug-in features are added, then it can be otherwise (assuming that feature is used).

If a Chevy Volt were never plugged in and ONLY used with the gasoline "feature", it too becomes a purely petrol based automobile -- just with a very different sort of implementation.


RE: At this point...
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 3:12:26 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Likewise moving part storage technology simply will not last - no matter how fast nor how capacious it WILL be replaced, the only question is when. SSD will in time be faster, more secure, more effective and more efficient. Like so many things one will simply phase out the other in due course.


Huh? Don't compare SSDs with petro/hybrid/electric cars. The way they are working isn't the same. The reason why ppl are working on hybrids and electrics is because of non-renewable resources.

Regular hard drives aren't that way. There's absolutely no reason to replace them with SSDs in the desktop market. I doubt SSDs will ever completely replace standard hard drives. I'd expect something else to do that. Maybe crystal storage, but definitely not these SSDs.


RE: At this point...
By ViroMan on 11/25/2008 7:09:42 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I doubt SSDs will ever completely replace standard hard drives. I'd expect something else to do that. Maybe crystal storage, but definitely not these SSDs.


I don't see why not. SSD's are more sturdy in a travel environment(vibration, drops, water), faster(if you have the Intel ones), you don't have to worry about fragmentation of the files, and much lower power needs. All these things pulling for it make it a very attractive alternative compared to hard drives.

About the only thing going for HD's atm is that they can hold significantly more for a cheaper price. This price and space disadvantage for SSD's however are going to quickly fall to the wayside as progress is made towards better chips.

Predictions are just that predictions, however im sure its a safe bet to predict that SSD's are going to kick the crap out of HD's butt next year.


RE: At this point...
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 8:47:00 AM , Rating: 2
Travel environment - doesn't affect desktops

faster - all reviews show no significant real world difference, cept if feels like things are snappier

fragmentation - how many ppl even care?

lower power needs - doesn't really matter on a desktop, seeing as PSUs are inefficient as is

Price and space disadvantages. Just like an SSD will gain larger space at a lower cost, so will standard hard drives. It's not like your standard hard drive is going to sit idle through the years. We're at what? 500 gig for notebooks and 1.5 TB for desktops.


RE: At this point...
By ZmaxDP on 11/25/2008 11:37:02 AM , Rating: 1
I also heard the same arguments by people who thought floppy disks would never be replaced. When is the last time you used one?

I don't think SSDs will replace HDDs next year, or even in two or three years for precisely the reasons you mentioned. However, at some point, SSDs will provide enough storage per dollar and performance to compete with HDD's in most markets. Companies are already spending more R&D money on SDDs, and this disparity will continue to grow. As it grows, the increase in size and speed will also grow more rapidly than the increase you'll see in HDDs. At some point you'll hit a price and performance parity between the two technologies and you'll see a rapid switch to SDDs across the board. We're not there yet, and I'd bet we're 3 to 5 years out from it. The only things that can prevent this are either a MAJOR technological leap in HDD technology that we don't know about yet; a MAJOR technical limitation in SSDs that we don't know about yet; or another technology that completely supplants current SSD tech that we don't know about yet (or think is further out from commercialization than it really is - like optical storage technologies, etc...).

Another trend that will help SDDs is the staggering increase in the percentage of the market that is mobile. Just 5 years ago notebook computers accounted for a relatively small fraction of the total PC market share. I'm pretty sure we're already close to a 50/50 split. (This of course doesn't include servers, HPC, etc... PC = personal computers remember). As notebooks become the dominant form factor, companies will start designing with the restrictions of that form factor as their primary constraints.

The last thing I'd comment on is that most user's don't give a rat's rear end about technical speed, real world performance gains of a few percentage points, or anything else that us geeks just love to talk about. All they care about is if their computer "feels snappier." If you've got two similar computers in a Best Buy side by side and you've got Dick and Jane Doe looking at them they'll buy whichever one "feels better" to them. This is an inherently emotional decision that is a combination of the computer's aesthetics and their perception of performance (not actual performance). Proof in the pudding? Look at Apple's recent gains in market share.


RE: At this point...
By afkrotch on 11/26/2008 9:12:45 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I also heard the same arguments by people who thought floppy disks would never be replaced. When is the last time you used one?


About a month ago. Needed it to install raid drivers during OS install. 3 out of my 5 computers require me to do it that way.

Many companies are working on SSDs, but you really only have 2 major players. The others are too small to really push the market. There's also only 1 company working on SSDs for the enterprise market.

I'm thinking a new tech will be out. Many companies are also working on an optical storage tech. This was years back and I can't imagine they'd already chunk all that R&D.

Majority of users don't give a rat's ass about snappier. I bet they'd look more at the prettiness of the OS and the hard drive size. "Wait...this one only has 64 gig and this other one has 1.5 TB, but everything else is the same and the 64 gig one costs like $400 extra. Gonna go with the 1.5 TB one. It's got more space."

Over all the years, only thing I know that ppl care about from computers is how it looks, how much space it has, and the cost. Sometimes how much memory, if they are a little smarter than the others.


RE: At this point...
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 3:02:18 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
They're finally entering mainstream usage in Eee/MSI Wind PCs, Macbooks and high-end computers.


Mainstream in a niche market. Ya...sounds like the only thing to DO is for WD or Seagate. Enter into a tiny ass market to probably lose money.


RE: At this point...
By NubWobble on 11/25/2008 4:08:53 AM , Rating: 2
The more competition the better, reduce prices and increase capacity as more and more HD's get pushed out. Mechanical HD's won't be replaced anytime soon, what will happen is that they'll drop in price, which would be great as I will simply put even more HD's in Raid.

Of course there's reliability but I've only had one WD HD break on me in years. However, the possibility is there and SSD's are a lot more reliable than mechanical HD's, so I will be switching to SSD's the moment they can match current HD's in capacity and price.

I drool over the thought of 2 or more 500GB SSD's in raid.


The waiting game...
By whiskerwill on 11/24/2008 1:18:04 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The crux here is that WD is playing a wait and see game with the SSD market
Don't wait too long. You'll get left behind with the rest of the short-sided crowd.




RE: The waiting game...
By Spivonious on 11/24/2008 1:45:31 PM , Rating: 1
I'm not sure what you mean by short-sided. Perhaps you meant to type "short-sighted"?


RE: The waiting game...
By TomZ on 11/24/2008 1:47:40 PM , Rating: 2
In reality, Seagate and WDC are almost certainly investing R&D to develop SSDs. They probably have internal pilot programs and maybe even are already developing actual products. To not be doing that would be foolish at this point in time.

It would also be foolish to tell everyone they are doing such development. When WDC is nearly ready to launch a product, then they will make it publicly known and "surprise" the market (and their competitors).


RE: The waiting game...
By mvpx02 on 11/24/2008 3:47:58 PM , Rating: 2
Agreed, not only are they watching and waiting while the technology matures and proves itself, they're also watching companies knock each other out as the technology and market continue to expand. When they decide it is time to enter the market, we can bet on seeing both companies buy up some of the smaller players to get a jump-start (or augment their own technology/facilities).

I'd imagine WD & Seagate are also both watching each other.... when one finally takes the plunge, the 2nd is likely to quickly follow suit.


RE: The waiting game...
By Mitch101 on 11/24/2008 4:06:36 PM , Rating: 2
I kind of see Intel/IBM/Memory makers with fabs and experience making chips as ruling the SSD channel.

I feel hard drive companies should stay away from this as it could be a money pit for them.

Just because SSD's are a form of hard drive (memory chip based) doesn't mean that Seagate/Western Digital should get into this area. Simply because it can easily be ruled by the company with the best chip production/fabs. Its next to impossible to compete with Intel in manufacturing/die shrinks so they will almost always be a step behind a company like Intel. The cost to compete with a chip manufacturer on the cutting edge of technology is too great.

SSD's might be a replacement for OS drives which need the maximum performance but they don't come close to the capacity of hard drives. Hard drives are still an excellent cost efficient method of storage and even replace many tape systems.

So while SSD might phase out a portion of the market that would otherwise use Hard Drives for the OS. Hard drives are still needed for large capacity storage. Dont feel bad for the hard drive they are phasing out tape drives.


RE: The waiting game...
By rudy on 11/25/2008 1:19:36 AM , Rating: 2
Ya but they also have their share holders to please and lots rightfully so are probably saying hard drives are probably going to be phased out of the mass market what is your company doing to be here in 10-20 years.


RE: The waiting game...
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 3:39:22 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Dont feel bad for the hard drive they are phasing out tape drives.


Huh? Tape drives are still the standard for backing up hundreds/thousands of gigs of data. I have yet to see any data centers phasing out tape drives. If anything were to replace them, I'd expect multi-layer blu-ray disc to do that first.

I know we'll have our servers using RAID 1, the whole servers mirrored to another set, then both them of them on tape backup. I'd imagine large data centers would be similiar for maintaining high availability.


RE: The waiting game...
By Mitch101 on 11/25/2008 10:20:57 PM , Rating: 2
Most facilities don't need long term storage and for them tape is on its way out or never will be.

I know of several good sized data centers moving toward 14-30 day hard drive based backup systems. No waiting for someone to load a tape or get it from iron mountain. If you need to do a recovery its all online and ready to go. Some drive backup systems are also in remote locations or done once weekly over the weekend to a remote location.

Some still use a monthly full to tape and located off site.

Comparatively an LTO-4 tape is 800gig for around $70.00. Hard drives are not far off in cost per gig storage. The killer is the tape drives running around $2500 not to mention the robots if you have an auto changer system. Then there is sometimes special software and the damn tape drives fail every now and then. The hard drive arrays seem to last longer. Seen too many tapes get stuck in drives too but never happens with a hot swappable hard drive.

I was surprised myself to see tape drives getting the boot but bang per buck hard drives are king.

BLU-RAY not only doesn't have the capacity but lacks the speed to backup data effectively. Still it could be used for smaller systems.


So basically what WD is saying:
By therealnickdanger on 11/24/2008 1:30:09 PM , Rating: 1
Yes, we're going to enter the SSD market, but we're only going to offer small/slow/cheap SSDs for the bottom-end (2-cylinder engine) and large/fast/expensive SSDs for the high-end (V-10 engine) because we can't risk canabalizing our HDD line-up with reasonably priced SSDs that outperform them.

Hey, at least they're honest. Meanwhile Intel and Samsung will steal the storage market with nth generation SSDs while Seagate and WD play catch-up. Hmm, more likely is Seagate and WD license tech from them.




RE: So basically what WD is saying:
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 3:44:42 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Hmm, more likely is Seagate and WD license tech from them.


Or buy up other SSD companies.


RE: So basically what WD is saying:
By therealnickdanger on 11/25/2008 7:53:24 AM , Rating: 2
WD buy up Intel or Samsung? HA.


RE: So basically what WD is saying:
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 8:55:01 AM , Rating: 2
Mtron, Transmeta, SanDisk, Super Talent, STEC, and the other multiple companies that are small and make SSDs. Don't think that Intel and Samsung are the only ones to make them.


RE: So basically what WD is saying:
By therealnickdanger on 11/25/2008 9:43:14 AM , Rating: 2
I don't think SuperTalent makes their own stuff, but I get your point... I still can't see WD buying up one of these smaller companies though and expect to be competitive. I'm sure they have a plan, but it's going to have to be big in order to compete well.


RE: So basically what WD is saying:
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 9:51:39 AM , Rating: 2
Buying up a smaller company and working to better those products would be a cheaper route, then creating everything from scratch. I wouldn't expect WD to do this, but I could easily see Seagate doing it.


HDD's are going the way of AGP
By Rob94hawk on 11/25/2008 12:16:03 AM , Rating: 2
The only disadvantage to SSD's is capacity. Look at Intel's SSD's for example. They are very fast for being new tech. 2 years from now HDD's will be a thing of the past.




RE: HDD's are going the way of AGP
By Silver2k7 on 11/25/2008 5:09:26 AM , Rating: 2
are you sure how about longevity ?

but disk space seems to be the biggest downside to SSD right now..
if there was reasonably priced 1TB SSD drives at say $300 I would consider it atleast..


RE: HDD's are going the way of AGP
By afkrotch on 11/25/2008 9:06:00 AM , Rating: 2
2 years? Seems a bit optimistic. Have you seen the cost for an SAS SSD? Last I looked, an 18 gig SAS SSD was around $14k. Think only one company making them too.


By puckalicious on 11/25/2008 8:44:52 AM , Rating: 2
It would be nice if the industry would push this concept together. SSD's and HDD's really should be marketed differently.

SSD on the motherboard or as a PCIx add on for the OS and swap file. Low(er) capacity (32-128GB) & high speed.

HDD for personal files and media. High capacity and average speed. 500GB - 2+TB.




?
By Sungpooz on 11/25/2008 8:54:35 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
The high-end market is described as SSDs aimed at performance applications where the [b]drivers[/b] are over $199 each.

Not trying to be knit-picky but is that supposed to be drives?




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