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Toshiba HD-A2 HD DVD Player
Toshiba cuts its HD DVD sales forecast by 44%

As the battle between the Blu-ray and HD DVD disc standard slithers along, both camps are looking for ways to get a "leg up" on the other.

Both sides have looked to consoles to increase marketshare. Microsoft's Xbox 360 can be equipped with a $199 HD DVD add-on and every Sony PlayStation 3 console comes equipped with a Blu-ray drive. The inclusion of the Blu-ray drive on the PS3 instantly gave Sony some serious firepower in the next generation high-definition wars.

Toshiba has countered by offering promotions to boost the sales of its HD DVD players. The company has a current promotion where customers who purchase a Toshiba HD DVD player can receive five free HD DVDs via a mail-in rebate.

This week, Toshiba is also offering a $100 instant discount on all HD DVD players to celebrate "Father's Day." The discount effectively brings the price of the low-end HD-A2 to $299.

In addition, Toshiba announced efforts to include HD DVD drives on all of its notebooks next year. Toshiba shipped 9.2 million notebooks in 2006, so making the drive standard issue would do wonders for boosting HD DVD penetration.

Despite Toshiba efforts to latch onto the console market, offer special promotions and expand its use of HD DVD drive in the mobile sector, the company is revising its forecast for HD DVD player sales. Unfortunately for Toshiba, the forecast is one that is trending downward.

The company announced that it lowered its North American sales forecasts for calendar year 2007 from 1.8 million units to 1 million units -- a decrease of 44 percent. The adjustment for the North American market will also affect global sales forecasts, but no estimate was given by Yoshihide Fujii, Toshiba's head of consumer electronics. "Obviously we are going to have to lower our previous global estimate."

Toshiba cites lower than expected unit sales for the lower forecast.

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Advertising?
By Noya on 6/12/2007 9:38:56 AM , Rating: 5
If the marketing is what's getting sales, HD-DVD needs to triple it's budget. I see Blu-Ray marketing on TV, print ads, online, everywhere. HD-DVD...barely any. I must see 10x + more BD ads than HD-DVD and for the layman, well, he must think BD is 10x better.




RE: Advertising?
By bhieb on 6/12/2007 3:29:02 PM , Rating: 2
I agree. The main problem is that HD-DVD is not a big enough name change. When the average Joe sees BlueRay they know it is an entirely different experience than DVD. When they hear HD-DVD they just think it is a slight upgrade to DVD. Think back to S-VHS vs VHS, the average person does not know that HD-DVD is something to be excited about. Blown marketing if you ask me.

For me (and many others) it will be neither until there is a clear winner or dual drives.


RE: Advertising?
By omnicronx on 6/12/2007 4:16:17 PM , Rating: 2
I think its the exact opposite.. people see blueray player and wonder WTF IS THAT??? is it a cup holder? will it play my 8 tracks??

then they see HD-DVD .. everyone knows what a DVD is and does.. and most people now a days know what high definition is... this is one of the reasons toshiba chose the name.. people could relate to a successful product (DVDS) and the superiority of HD.

i think in the end, most people will realize blueray is a stupid name, and although right now its been more successful (because of ps3) and its probably a better format overall, i see HD-DVD being the choice for people who dont know the difference.. just because of the name


RE: Advertising?
By omnicronx on 6/12/2007 4:19:13 PM , Rating: 2
on another note.. sony has to advertise blueray 10x more because of the same problem.. many people have no idea what it is. Im not saying toshiba advertises enough because they dont.. but i think they feel they have to do so much less because most people will know what it is just by seeing the name.. anywhere


Are we forgetting yesterday's news already?
By OxBow on 6/12/2007 10:46:50 AM , Rating: 2
Just yesterday I saw multiple articles based on a HD-DVD press release that they were doing better than Blue-Ray. Today, they announce a projection revision. Seems to me that yesterdays press release was designed to take the sting out of todays announcement. Having to revise their projections is a big deal in terms of stock performance. Such an announcement can cost the company significantly more in stock value than the actual projection adjustment losses are. It really seems to me that Toshiba is on more shaky ground with HD-DVD than they want to admit, if they have to spin their press releases so obviously to cover such bad news.




By killerroach on 6/12/2007 11:49:00 AM , Rating: 3
Probably right... the "doing better than Blu-Ray" statement was a bit of a numbers game, but they are far from dead in the water. Their sales projections were a bit of irrational exuberance, however, and this revision brings them more in line to what the market seems to be showing for either HD video format. Neither one is seeming to have a huge leg up, and that tends to further depress the market for either format, as a lot of people (myself included) are waiting for one format or the other to show a clear advantage one way or the other...


By steven975 on 6/12/2007 1:23:35 PM , Rating: 4
Considering standalone BD players have only sold about 100K units I believe.

While there are 3M PS3s (with slow sales now), not all of them are used for watching movies.

When you look at it like that, 1M HD-DVD players plus probably 500K Xbox HD-DVD drives (which were purchased for movie watching unlike all PS3s) it starts looking pretty good.

And, don't take this article as a sign of slowing sales. Sales have grown, A LOT. It's just that Toshiba was a little irrational with a 1.8M forecast for the year. Still 1M is darn good and will keep them in the game.




Feel sorry for Toshiba
By EclipsedAurora on 6/12/2007 12:49:34 PM , Rating: 3
Lack of industry support will be the deadly fate of Toshiba. It is because many 1st Tier manufactureres like Panasonic, Sony, Pioneer, Samsung stand on BluRay side, their scale of economy can finally outweight the production cost of BluRay. Toshiba battle with herself only, which made her in a very unfavourable situation as she can't enjoy a larger scale of economy, thus ending up with the fact that HD-DVD cost more than BluRay in many region outside USA, or simply disappeared from the market (e.g. Until now HD-DVD is simply paper launched in Australia only, while BluRay had been flooding around the Australian market)

Also, today's technology can mature far faster than b4. One yrs ago blue laser diode are running out of stock in the market globally. But now u can find plenty around. 1-2 yrs later they may flood the market with cheap price and the Blue laser disc will eliminate the DVD completely.




And yet...
By SiliconAddict on 6/12/2007 9:40:48 AM , Rating: 2
Advertising
By jimmy27 on 6/12/2007 12:04:11 PM , Rating: 2
I personally don't think there is that much of a difference to me as a consumer of HD content whether it comes from BR or HD DVD. But, the cost of HD DVD is compelling. However, as one person wrote above, BR is out advertising HD DVD like crazy. If toshiba is blowing out all these players for cheap, they wont have the margin available to advertise. Perception is reality for people. So, even if they bought HD DVD and believe BR is better or will win, then BR will win. I think HD DVD really needs to step up its marketing or BR will win no matter how many HD DVD players are sold. Eventually though, I do think we'll just end up with all hybrid players or fancy BR/HD DVD combo discs.




still waiting
By Chernobyl68 on 6/12/2007 12:06:07 PM , Rating: 2
for a good combo player.




Internal PC HD DVD Drives
By Frazzle on 6/12/2007 12:40:54 PM , Rating: 2
Toshiba could probably pad their sales figures for HD DVD drives a bit of they released an internal HD DVD drive for the PC in the US market. They have the external drives available, and they sell the internal drives overseas and to US OEMs, so they already make them. Why they refuse to sell them in the US retail market is a complete mystery though.

I don't want some clunky external drive sitting on top of my HTPC. Make an internal model available, Toshiba, please.




prices
By omnicronx on 6/12/2007 1:37:12 PM , Rating: 2
i think we will have to wait and see if sony's disc sales actually stay like that.. because as someone said sony's standalone players are barely selling.. with something like 15% of players being sold being non ps3 machines. It will be interesting to see toshiba sales once they have sold more players.
In my opinion its great ps3s come with an blueray.. but i think its a really dumb idea to use your gaming system as a movie player. anyone remember what playing dvd's did to most ps2s? i know the lifespan of my ps2 was essentially cut in half because of dvd player overuse.. and as blueray and hddvd are still the ol laser and motor you would have to expect the same thing to happen again... I would also like to note that toshiba doesnt count xbox360 hdplayers in their count whereas sony counts the ps3




unrealistic forcast
By ncage on 6/12/2007 9:50:54 AM , Rating: 1
Ok i have another comment. I think 1.8 million was an unrealistic forcast. Think how many people have High-Def enabled TVs. Sure if everyone could get the benefits of these players there would be a lot more sales but everyone can't. This does not mean the player is not selling well because it is. 1 million is still a bunch of players. For example of of the biggest etailers as we know is amazon. The Top selling DVD player on amazon is the HD-A2, 5th place is HD-A20, 7th is HD-XA2. Sony doesn't come onto the picture until the 11th spot. 3 of toshiba's players are above it. Here is the proof:
http://amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/17251...




/Toshiba Fails
By speedyj on 6/12/2007 3:03:39 PM , Rating: 1
Why would Toshiba even bother putting a HD-DVD drive into all their laptops? It would just jack up the prices and make it unaffordable. The HD-DVD drive alone would be expensive. Then you would have to add a big enough LCD screen capable of 1920x1080 resolution and that would drive up costs even more! Not only that, why would anyone want to watch a 1080p movie on such a small screen? And what about the people who already have a stand alone HD-DVD player? Or a blu-ray player? Toshiba would just be forcing you to get another HD-DVD that would be of no use to you. If Toshiba goes through with this foolish decision then they should lower their laptop sales expectations for next year as well. No wonder HD-DVD is losing......Toshiba has such a terrible business plan.




Go Go Blu-Ray!
By henrikfm on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By BladeVenom on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By sxr7171 on 6/12/2007 7:21:35 AM , Rating: 2
Older movies like that often aren't transfered too well to HD formats.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By SLI on 6/12/2007 7:41:07 AM , Rating: 1
Umm, most of them from the mid 50's up *ARE* originally HD (16x9, 2.33x1, etc) so the "HD" is merely the original aspect ratio restored.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By tmp8000 on 6/12/2007 7:55:29 AM , Rating: 3
Simply "restoring" the aspect ratio does not make a movie suddenly HD, otherwise all of the restored DVDs would be HD. They have to make an HD digital master from the original 35mm and I think he was implying that a lot of the transfers from the original 35mm of older films don't hold up as well as they could due to degradation etc.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By Pitbulll0669 on 6/12/2007 7:58:26 AM , Rating: 2
ok I have the Toshiba HDAx2 the top line player and I have some of the Older movies like Forbidden Planet. And Ill tell you,IT LOOKS AWESOME! Its not just expanded to fit and play But dig. remasterd so it looks Friggin Sweet! Dont knock it untill you try it.:)


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By therealnickdanger on 6/12/2007 8:17:25 AM , Rating: 2
Exactly. The only thing that is often lacking in new transfers of old films is the audio. Film stock of 50 years ago was excellent, it was designed for massive screens. The audio, however, was not recorded in a way that was kind to surround sound. They can clean, tweak, and resample it, but the audio rarely comes out as good as the picture. However, what these old movies can lack in technical aspects they can usually make up for in cinematography and writing.

Old movies in HD = wet my pants.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By psychobriggsy on 6/12/2007 8:40:45 AM , Rating: 2
The only major thing visibly different between a DVD and a HD-DVD is the resolution.

They're still both widescreen formats (or widescreen capable).

So I fail to see your point about "expanded to fit". HD-DVD isn't bringing along OMGNEW! widescreen capability. It's bringing high capacity and data transfer rates, and hence allowing higher definition content to be stored on them.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By mdogs444 on 6/12/2007 9:06:11 AM , Rating: 2
Correct me if i'm wrong - but HD-DVD & BD bring increased storage capacity on discs which allow for:

Higher Resolution Video allowing for true 1080p, as opposed to 576p and upscaling.
Higher Quality Audio - and true DTX, 7.1, etc


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By Goty on 6/12/2007 12:32:21 PM , Rating: 2
...which is pretty much EXACTLY what the previous poster just said.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By wallijonn on 6/13/2007 2:04:06 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
But dig. remasterd so it looks Friggin Sweet!


Therein lies part of the problem - if it just a straight copy-conversion, then what good is it if one sees scratches, blotches and noise in HD? An HD movie should be a "restored" master where all the scratches are taken out. where you get rid of the "cigarette burns," where the blue sky is pristine, not filled with white dots, where colour balance has been restored, etc. Making a conversion of a grainy film will not likely get you anything (and many of today's films are too grainy, just as they were during the Vietnam War; and just like then, there seems to be either a green push or a brown push to many of today's films.)

HD will probably come into its own when digital cameras are used instead of film. It will probably make more sense to release the latest films, rather than convert the older films. The problem is that many of today's films aren't worth buying, much less seeing in a theatre.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By cochy on 6/12/2007 10:02:11 AM , Rating: 2
What on Earth are you talking about? They had HD camera's in the 50s? They had enough problems getting movies into color with stereo sound back then. Aspect ratio has nothing to do with resolution.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By Lakku on 6/12/2007 10:57:23 AM , Rating: 2
They didn't need HD cameras. Digital 'film' is different than real film. I probably can't explain it technically, but suffice it to say, you can take a 35mm picture, or film, and make it HD quite easily. It's the same reason you can take 35mm negatives, blow them up, and not really have a loss of picture quality. In short, and hopefully someone can explain this better, film isn't limited to the set resolution of a digital HD camera, and can be downsized and upsized at near will, without much loss in picture quality.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 1:12:34 PM , Rating: 3
> "suffice it to say, you can take a 35mm picture, or film, and make it HD quite easily"

The grain size of 35mm film varies, but 2 microns is a good estimate. The average print corresponds roughly to a resolution of about 3,800 x 2,200 (assuming 16:9, which isn't quite correct). In any case, the quality is several times that of a 1080p image.

Some movies were shot in 70mm also, which has about 2.5X the resolution of 35mm film.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By FlashGordon on 6/12/2007 11:03:05 AM , Rating: 2
No they did not have HD back then, but movies were filmed in 35mm film stock, which actually has a higher resolution/pixel count than todays HD. Of course they have to be digitally remastered before they can shown on HD. HDNet generally does a very good job as they sometimes show old movies that have been remastered, such as The Great Escape, Fistful of Dollars, etc.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By VIAN on 6/12/2007 11:03:22 AM , Rating: 1
Film is the highest resolution achievable in any medium. You can take HD picture from it.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By ShapeGSX on 6/12/2007 10:41:14 AM , Rating: 2
Have you seen Casa Blanca on HD-DVD? It is absolutely GORGEOUS! Sharper than just about any movie I have ever seen. The contrast is amazing. No dust or scratches to speak of.

Sure, it is a 4:3 film, but when it looks this amazing, I could care less about the black bars.


RE: Go Go Blu-Ray!
By VIAN on 6/12/2007 11:00:20 AM , Rating: 2
They may not look as good as current titles, but most do look significantly better than the DVD release.

Example: Enter the Dragon


wait I though HD-DVD was
By michal1980 on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: wait I though HD-DVD was
By encryptkeeper on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: wait I though HD-DVD was
By Lakku on 6/12/2007 10:04:49 AM , Rating: 2
I won't address most of this post, because it is just plain silly. However, you are completely wrong about something. Pirates will be ONLY on Blu-Ray, since it is owned by Disney. That much you have right. However, the Matrix trilogy IS COMING TO BLU-RAY. It is confirmed, not just speculation. The only thing NOT confirmed is the release date. It was just easier to release it on HD-DVD first. Please get it straight in the future.


RE: wait I though HD-DVD was
By FITCamaro on 6/12/07, Rating: 0
RE: wait I though HD-DVD was
By encryptkeeper on 6/12/07, Rating: 0
SUBJECT!
By Visual on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
The winners and the losers
By GreenyMP on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: The winners and the losers
By ncage on 6/12/2007 10:53:14 AM , Rating: 2
Your totally off base. This has NOTHING to do with toshiba loosing the format war. It has everything to do with toshiba being to optimistic in their estimate of how many players they will sell. See my other post and my link to amazon on how many standalone players toshiba is selling compared to sony. Now how can you tell me they are loosing form that? If Toshiba had a estimate they would sell 50,000,000 players but the only sold 45,000,000 does that mean they are loosing?


RE: The winners and the losers
By deeznuts on 6/12/07, Rating: 0
RE: The winners and the losers
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 1:23:07 PM , Rating: 2
Standalone players are where the disc sales are. The attach rate on BD sales per PS3 is abysmal...something like one disc for every three consoles last time I checked. The attach rate for standalone players (both HD-DVD and BD) is some 30 times higher than that, meaning each standalone player sale is worth 30 PS3s.


RE: The winners and the losers
By michal1980 on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
RE: The winners and the losers
By encryptkeeper on 6/12/2007 3:03:36 PM , Rating: 2
And you're nuts if you think the attach rate is 10 per player. he JUST said it was 3 to 1 (and if you read my post it may have even been 4 to 1 for May). Try not to do math, it doesn't seem to work for you.


RE: The winners and the losers
By dess on 6/12/2007 7:10:22 PM , Rating: 2
I would think 1/3 * 30 equals 10...


By encryptkeeper on 6/12/2007 2:56:28 PM , Rating: 2
Actually buddy, according to this the number is not 3 to one... it's 4 to 1...
The HD-DVD Promotions Group is announcing yet more progress for the format in its struggle with Blu-ray. According to the HD-DVD camp, the format now accounts for 60% of all next-gen DVD set-top players sold to this point in time. The figure does not count the PlayStation 3. The group also announced that HD-DVD is achieving a 4 to 1 movie attach rate over Blu-ray, and set a new high for movie sales in May, highlighted by more than 75,000 units sold in the last week of the month.

Of course listening solely to the HD-DVD Promotions Group for information on HD sales should be taken with a grain of salt. Otherwise it would be like going to the Tobacco Institute to get information on the effects of smoking.


RE: The winners and the losers
By cubby1223 on 6/12/2007 3:08:33 PM , Rating: 3
And of course you'd naturally attribute the quick turn-around from abysmal sales to enormous movie sales immediately after the PS3 launch... largely due to standalone players?

Get real.

Attach rate is an out-dated term. There are more movies purchased and played on the PS3 console than any other model standalone player, Blu-ray or HD DVD.


RE: The winners and the losers
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 5:23:47 PM , Rating: 3
> "your nuts if you think that the average attach rate per stand alone is 10 disks."

At the time the figures were calculated, HD-DVD standalone player sales stood at 100K, and disk sales were just over 900K. That's clearly over a 9:1 attach rate.

> you'd naturally attribute the quick turn-around from abysmal sales to enormous movie sales immediately after the PS3 launch... largely due to standalone players? "

I said no such thing. The spike was due to the PS3 obviously. However, in North America, there are 15 times as many PS3s out there as there are standalone HD-DVD players. And yet, the PS3 and standalone BD players are only selling about 50% more disks month-to-month than HD-DVD, despite the massive disparity in players.

Attach rate isn't an "outdated" term. In this particular analysis, it explains why the PS3 has failed to prove the decisive blow for Blu Ray.


RE: The winners and the losers
By mars777 on 6/12/2007 8:58:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
it explains why the PS3 has failed to prove the decisive blow for Blu Ray.


The PS3 is not intended to strike a decisive blow.

Let me explain:

- when you click here:
HD-DVD http://amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/35269...

... you have only Toshiba and it cost less then here:

BlueRay http://amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/35269...

where you have 4 different companies, and it costs more.

The Playstation is intended to be a little squadron that must defend the latter link until it becomes more powerful than the first and unleashes it's army.

Each soldier in the army is a player.

If the PS3 can do it and if the army is ready in a few months than it will be their victory. If the PS3 fails than the second link will dye. The army will be ready when the price of the army is ready (eg. low at least close to the cost of the HD-DVD soldiers/players).

Sony right now can't produce as much soldiers for low prices . They need their allies (Samsung, Panasonic, Philips...) to produce more, so that Sony can sell more.

It's a market chain reaction - the PS3 is only intended to exist for lowering the price of B-laser diodes and fill the gap where BD players aren't selling good because of price .

Sony just needs time - having said that look what is the MOST SELLING blue ray player on amazon - IT'S A PREORDER ITEM .

This clearly means that, if there were no split-choices, online people are attached to Sony more than to Toshiba/Samsung/Panasonic etc. - and this is bad, since the not-online people are even more attached to Sony (TV marketing).

The majority of people don't buy HD-DVD or BlueRay, they buy a player which attaches to their TV (from preferably Sony) for the price range they can handle.

You and me may know what is BlueRay and what is a HD-DVD, we may even know which movie companies are on which side. The average buyer doesn't know which side is Disney or Paramount . They barely know that HD-DVD and BlueRay exists. They come into the shop and the guy there decides for them , knowing the price range, brand attachment (Sony dominates here) and what TV they have home.

The PS3 is a bad product right now for the price range where it is, the same for the BlueRay players. But i clearly don't see their death. They will have plenty of life if they manage to go mainstream. This will settle in the next months... until Christmas we will know it for sure. I would be one of the first to buy a PS3 if there was a price cut of ... let's say 120$.

I hate to say it but, if they hurry up, Sony will win.

I'd like to see a Sony projection for standalones thou...


RE: The winners and the losers
By cubby1223 on 6/12/2007 9:43:07 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
you'd naturally attribute the quick turn-around from abysmal sales to enormous movie sales immediately after the PS3 launch... largely due to standalone players?

I said no such thing.

You said:
quote:
Standalone players are where the disc sales are.


Attach rate doesn't work because it doesn't factor into account the overwhelming number of hardware sales. Your own analysis of HD DVD attach rates is faulty too, because you're only looking at 100k Toshiba players sold, while not factoring in the approximate 200k xbox add-ons.

Just watch out if Warner goes through with their TotalHD discs. Wow, that would be the real downfall of the attach rate statistic. Or combo players to a lesser extent.


RE: The winners and the losers
By cubby1223 on 6/12/2007 9:58:35 PM , Rating: 2
The whole point was, an attach rate of 1 for PS3s would still be very near nothing compared to the attach rate of standalone players... but an attach rate of 1 would near win the war for Blu-ray, and an attach rate of a small 2 or 3 would be absolutely slaughtering HD DVD. *That's* why attach rate is out-dated.


RE: The winners and the losers
By ani4ani on 6/12/2007 1:11:14 PM , Rating: 2
Except they didn't anounce a 10% drop in forecast, i.e. 50M to 45M, thay annouced nearly a 50% drop in sales, i.e. using your numbers from 50M to nearly 25M.

Amazon means nothing - it might if they were the cheapest and everyone purchased at Amazon, but they're not and they don't.


RE: The winners and the losers
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 1:34:31 PM , Rating: 2
> "using your numbers from 50M to nearly 25M"..."

A 44% reduction in North American sales. Still, one million players is strong sales, regardless of their earlier estimates. If the present attach rates hold, that's going to mean a huge increase in disc sales.


RE: The winners and the losers
By deeznuts on 6/12/2007 2:59:13 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
A 44% reduction in North American sales. Still, one million players is strong sales, regardless of their earlier estimates. If the present attach rates hold, that's going to mean a huge increase in disc sales.
I won't even touch your numbers from your earlier post, but ... at the end of June they have sold a total of 150,000 units. That's 5 months into the year. THey are hoping to sell 850,000 in 7 months.

They better start selling them for $99 to hit that target, or expect them to revise their forecast further downward.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070611-hd-d...


RE: The winners and the losers
By walk2k on 6/12/2007 4:24:16 PM , Rating: 2
To be fair, Blu-ray players aren't exactly flying off the shelves either (not counting PS3).

Still, player sales are largely irrelevent. The manufacturers actually LOSE money on each player sold! They hope to make up for it with software sales. So, those are much more important, and in that category Blu-ray is completely dominating. To date Blu has a lead of 59% to 41%, and the YTD numbers are even more staggering, 67% to a mere 33% !!!

Clearly the fact that HD-DVD is dumping inventory at fire-sale prices is a sure sign the end is nigh for the format.

Too bad but in the end, having 2 formats was dumb anyway.


RE: The winners and the losers
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 5:31:37 PM , Rating: 2
> "the YTD numbers are even more staggering, 67% to a mere 33% !!!"

The latest YTD figures are actually 62% to 38%, with HD-DVD climbing back somewhat from the PS3-dominated sales spike earlier in the year.

Anyone considering these figures-- or anything even close to them-- as a decisive blow is off base. No studio is going to discard a third of the market, and as sales figures for both formats continue to rise, thats even more reason to master and release films in each format.

Both formats have survived too long and sold too many players and discs to die. They'll both continue to gain sales volume, and eventually dual-format players will make the entire 'war' a moot point. The average consumer won't know or care whether his HD move is HD-DVD or BD. He'll just buy it and pop it into the player.


RE: The winners and the losers
By mars777 on 6/12/2007 9:06:39 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The average consumer won't know or care whether his HD move is HD-DVD or BD. He'll just buy it and pop it into the player


And we all will be paying more...


By theapparition on 6/13/2007 8:07:37 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Both formats have survived too long and sold too many players and discs to die.

Wanna buy some LaserDiscs? Have about a hundred of them. :-)
If sales suddenly went flat on one of the formats, you could bet it would be abandoned.

Seriously though, in the end I think your right, dual format players will render this a moot point.


RE: The winners and the losers
By ani4ani on 6/12/2007 5:17:46 PM , Rating: 2
Its even worse than that, its 150K players since inception 13 months! They have sold 50K since March or around 5K a week, which wouldn't get them to 1/2 their new forecast.


RE: The winners and the losers
By masher2 (blog) on 6/12/2007 7:28:36 PM , Rating: 2
> "They have sold 50K since March or around 5K a week, which wouldn't get them to 1/2 their new forecast."

If sales remained static, sure. However, they have at least one more price cut before the end of the year, along with the holiday season shopping, which is where the bulk of the sales lie.


add +1 for me to your list toshiba :)
By ncage on 6/12/07, Rating: -1
By TheDoc9 on 6/12/2007 11:05:52 AM , Rating: 2
"Things are a lot cheaper on the HD-DVD camp, they have the superior encoding, and a lot of reviews ive read state HD-DVD camp has done a better job on movies currently."

It's true HD-DVD is cheaper. But lets not confuse the rest of your statement with fact. "Superior encoding" could occur but since both formats use the same encoding it would likely be blu-ray that would be superior, simply because of hd-dvd's size limitations.

Anyone can read 'a lot' of positive reviews about their favorite format, but that doesn't mean that there aren't just as many for the competing format. "a lot" of positive reviews doesn't mean it's a better product.


RE: add +1 for me to your list toshiba :)
By mrEvil on 6/12/07, Rating: 0
RE: add +1 for me to your list toshiba :)
By ncage on 6/12/07, Rating: 0
RE: add +1 for me to your list toshiba :)
By tmp8000 on 6/12/2007 12:25:21 PM , Rating: 2
You do realize that's just an hourly list and neither movies are even there anymore? On top of that Blu-ray has outsold HD-DVD in overall media sales since like December.


RE: add +1 for me to your list toshiba :)
By edpsx on 6/12/2007 3:03:31 PM , Rating: 2
Bluray and HDDVD movie prices are practically the same. Alot of the time I see Bluray pricing actually cheaper than that of the HDDVD version. So you cant say HDDVD is EXTREMELY cheaper than that of Bluray. I see sales all the time for Bluray movies and advertising all over the place for it.

Sure the player costs less, but for 1080p your talking $100 difference. And I dont care what you say, I can see a big difference between 1080i and 1080p. It all depends on the type of TV you have and how keen you are on visuals. I see no reason to buy a 1080i TV when a 1080p can be had for a couple hundred more or less.


By jevans64 on 6/12/2007 5:39:53 PM , Rating: 3
First post here ( didn't realize I could use my AnandTech acct. instead of signing up a new one. )

I'm about to jump on the HD-DVD bandwagon and wanted to add a little insider stuff related to manufacturing these two discs since we often hear very little on that side. My main reasons for holding back this long are two formats, player cost, and lack of the right companion gear. Since I am going to upgrade my HT setup to 1080p ( with a new Mitsu WD-65833 ), I am going to add a HD player. I guess another reason is that I ABSOLUTELY CAN'T STAND Sony since they are the reason we even have two formats to begin with.

I work for a MAJOR duplication house which produces over a million discs PER DAY in just ONE of its plants. We currently have three lines ( machines ) that have been converted to HD-DVD with another 12 on the way ( six up by July, the other six by year's end. We have TWO Blu-Ray lines. The BIG thing here for the manufacturers is that existing DVD lines, as long as they are the newer high speed machines, can be converted to HD-DVD with a minor handling addition and software upgrade. Blu-Ray requires ENTIRELY new machines which cost over $2 million a pop.

We have other plants that manufacture more of the HD discs but our facility seems to be the Blu-Ray test bed. In the year that we have had our Blu-Ray lines, they have been upgraded several times to get the yield up. The Blu-Ray manufacturing process, quite frankly, stinks while the HD-DVD process is very similar to DVD.

Our combined failure rate for DVD is around 12% since we have newer lines that stay in the 94% pass range while the older lines usually hover in the lower to middle 80% range.

The fail rate for HD-DVD is around 10%.

The fail rate for Blu-Ray started at around the 65% range and is now down to around 40%. So. We are throwing away 40 out of every 100 BD discs produced while only 10 out of 100 HD-DVDs are scrapped.

That higher cost to produce BD has to go somewhere and is probably why these discs generally cost more than HD-DVD.

I could go more into why these discs are failing but that might be company-sensitive information.


By mrEvil on 6/13/2007 1:41:51 PM , Rating: 2
(golf clap for you)

Yeah. Now, READ what I wrote. I really like how you just make up stuff that you imply I said, but never did.

If you are comparing prices, compare compatible devices. Comparing the price of a 720p/1080i device to a 1080p device (duh, it costs more - look at your 1080p HD players) is not an effective comparison. Doing that IS naive. There, I spelled it out for you. Do you need a map to this paragraph as well?

Get anything on the TV that moves fast and you'll tell the difference between "i" and "p" real quick. Tell me that you'd rather watch sports at 1080i versus 720p.

I see all the logic in your argument....so I'll blow it all up. If you are that cheap, why not just go get an upconverting DVD player and use your existing DVD's? If someone is seriously considering purchasing a next-gen DVD solution, they are stupid to buy one that only supports 720p/1080i, regardless of what your TV supports. I will hazard a good guess that most people who buy HD-DVD/BR players will be buying another TV sometime in the next 5 years. Why cripple yourself with that?

Again, READ what I said. I NEVER said it would be over by Xmas....could...I said probably withing the next year.

Nice job Mr. Egomaniac. Again, I do not care who wins - but you seem to think I do.

Actually, I feel sorry for you. Not only did you buy an inferior HD-DVD player and try to justify it, you also stated that you are not an idiot because you are typing the message on the 64 bit version of Vista. Can't fork over an extra $150-200 for a better player but can try to work on an OS that has no viable 64-bit apps. Dunno, that sorta sounds like an idiot to me.

BTW, lighten up Francis. I never insulted you....I just stated that you shouldn't be all giddy about your purchase. Let's see how well HD-DVD does after Toshiba ends their $100 off promotion.


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