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Auto The Chevy Volt's Dark Side
Jason Mick (Blog) - May 4, 2009 9:38 AM
Print E-mail del.icio.us 226 comment(s) - last by Tsuwamono.. on May 9 at 12:34 AM

  (Source: Motor Authority)

The 2010 Chevy Volt is a looker, but it comes at a high cost. With its release, the industry struggles with a significant question -- can vehicles which use large quantities of the scarce resource lithium be the industry's future?  (Source: Motor Trend)
Optimism for new electric vehicle is high, but many problems lurk

Electric vehicles (EVs) are what President Obama called the "future of automobiles."  With GM under government supervision and focusing on its EV program, the EV industry prepares ready to take off.  The first step towards that vision will be the release of the Chevy Volt next year -- the Volt will be the first plug-in from a major automaker.

However, significant doubts remain over exactly how quickly the electric vehicle industry will take off.  First, the industry currently is using the scarce resource lithium in its battery packs.  With net deposits of lithium scarce, pricey, and in volatile regions there's significant doubts over the ability of electric vehicles, in their current state, to see broad adoption. 

For the consumer, it’s not about resources; it’s about the price they carry.  The Obama administration in response to GM's February bailout proposal wrote, "[The Volt] is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable."

A recent 2009 study by the Boston Consulting Group looked at the alternative-energy friendly Germany as an ideal location to deploy electric vehicles.  What it found was that the five-year cost of an electric vehicle would remain "relatively unattractive to consumers in 2020, unless its cost is subsidized."

The study identified $280/barrel as a break-even point for the industry.  Oil is currently approximately $50/barrel.  Geoffrey Styles, founder of the energy consultant GSW Strategy Group, says that even at $4/gallon gasoline, customers would take six years to recoup the cost differential between a Toyota Prius Hybrid and the Volt -- and that's with a $7,500 tax credit, and a significant loss per vehicle for GM.

And while the Volt will indeed help cut emissions, it raises new questions over battery disposal.  Lithium batteries are toxic, and will require careful recycling.

In all, the electric industry for the time being may be practical for high-end vehicles like Tesla Motors' Roadster which retails for $100,000+ USD.  However, for consumer autos, electric-only vehicles remain impractical for one key reason -- the shortcomings of current battery technology.  While adoption might spur the development of such technology, it comes at a high cost, and it is more questionable than direct investment in the research.

The impracticality of the lithium battery plug-in industry is exacerbated by the fact that the mild hybrid industry (which uses smaller batteries, making lithium less of a concern) has been showing strong profits for several years, and direct injection efforts are taking off.  While it appears that both consumers and the auto industry are eager to adopt a more environmentally friendly stance, the question remains how best to do it. 

As the electric vehicle industry prepares to put its pedal to the floor, it is perhaps time to take a look back and refocus on the base technologies needed to make such an industry possible, as these studies suggest.

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Why is Lithium scarce?
By drewsup on 5/4/2009 10:09:42 AM , Rating: 5
Every news story i see says that Bolivia has huge dried up sea beds full of Lithium. The stuff literally blows everywhere, why aren't companies scooping this up? P.S. on a side note, are people in Bolivia known for their calm demeanor because of all the lithium that's gotta be in their diets? : )




RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By RjBass on 5/4/2009 10:30:24 AM , Rating: 2
The last couple pieces I saw on Bolivia said the government was going to nationalize the lithium deposits and fix the price. Add to that, Bolivia is not exactly a friend to the USA and what you have is a potential Asian electric car revolution leaving the USA in the dust.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Tsuwamono on 5/9/2009 12:34:36 AM , Rating: 2
Now why would Bolivia not like the USA? ... Thats odd... USA only sent in Navy Seals a few times on various missions... Wait actually i think id be kinda pissed if someone broke into my house and then a few weeks later wanted to buy my couch...


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By TheFace on 5/4/2009 10:32:24 AM , Rating: 4
I believe that Bolivia isn't the only South American country that has deposits. The issue is that these countries don't want big American corporations (or just plain big corporations) coming in and removing a valuable resource without them getting a slice of the pie. So they've been held back by these governments who are trying to figure out how much money they want. In the meanwhile, we get 75-90% of our lithium for batteries from China.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By HighWing on 5/4/2009 1:12:48 PM , Rating: 5
I've heard the same.
But what I find more amusing is that given technology trends, there is a good chance that something else could be invented/price reduced/ etc that would make using lithium a thing of the past. At which point these countries like Boliva that are holding out, will suddenly find they waited too long. And I would be willing to bet money that it will happen right around the time they get ready to let companies come in and remove the lithium.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 3:00:28 PM , Rating: 2
Rather than amusing I would consider that natural human tendency. Hold out for as much as you can but when you see a chance of substantial loss by waiting any longer, sell the rest as quick as possible.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Samus on 5/4/2009 5:55:55 PM , Rating: 2
electric vehicles are importand because when hydrogen catches on you just replace the batteries and speed controller with a fuel cell and a hydrogen-electricity processor. the platform is all pretty much the same (electric motors, accessories, regenorative brakes, etc)


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 7:39:59 PM , Rating: 2
How many people do you think are going to spend the money to retrofit an aged hybrid car? I'd wager almost nobody.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By freeagle on 5/5/2009 6:16:28 AM , Rating: 4
Close to zero. But the auto manufacturers could reuse the designs of the parts and change just the power source


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By DeepBlue1975 on 5/4/2009 4:01:32 PM , Rating: 2
Don't see the problem there.
Everybody wants to make business. I guess the Bolivian government would be willing to sell their lithium if a good enough deal is presented to them.

If better materials are found for making batteries, then Bolivia will have to settle for a lower price or otherwise start thinking seriously about making lots of food involving lithium, which could be good for the depressive Bolivians out there. (?)


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By petrosy on 5/4/2009 8:04:02 PM , Rating: 4
The Solar Uyuni where the lithium is located is probably the most incredible place on earth I have ever seen. I hope they never sell out.

Any one who has ever been their will know that mining that area will be a crime to humanity. Yellowstone park does not even compare to this place but imagine the US goverment decideds to let motor industry tear it apart just so that we can drive big ass cars.... food for though. Just because its not inthe US does not mean its not worth anything.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By twjr on 5/4/2009 8:15:57 PM , Rating: 2
Just had a look of some photos and it is truly stunning. Would be a terrible shame if something like that was lost.

Unfortunately with big auto getting everything their way these days I better plan my trip to Bolivia sooner rather than later.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By eddieroolz on 5/5/2009 1:45:47 AM , Rating: 2
I agree with you buddy, this place looks amazing!

Breathtaking even!

I want to visit there now..


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By 91TTZ on 5/5/2009 1:40:52 PM , Rating: 2
Why would you compare this place to Yellowstone when it looks almost exactly like the Bonneville Salt Flats?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By petrosy on 5/5/2009 9:55:18 PM , Rating: 2
Geez how silly of me.... well in that case lets go rip it up...... *insert sarcastic tone*


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Lord 666 on 5/4/2009 10:33:08 AM , Rating: 2
Nah, I take it every day. Plenty to go around.

Just kidding! Lord 666 is not on any medication nor need any.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By quiksilvr on 5/4/2009 2:24:52 PM , Rating: 3
I doubt that.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Ytsejamer1 on 5/4/2009 2:39:26 PM , Rating: 4
Did you just refer to yourself in the third-person? That's awesome!


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 3:02:08 PM , Rating: 2
... besides what's in that funny looking water /filter/ under the 'sink.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Parhel on 5/4/2009 10:49:34 AM , Rating: 5
Because lithium isn't scarce no matter what the article claims. Lithium is more abundant than lead in the Earth's crust. Even if every new car produced were a lithium ion hybrid, supply wouldn't become an issue.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By A Stoner on 5/4/2009 2:46:10 PM , Rating: 4
Yeah, it becomes an issue of how hard (read expensive) it is to harvest from the earths crust. There are only certain places, where it is economically viable to extract this substance, that are known. Just like Uranium, the industry found the easy places first, and because they have enough in those places, they have yet to spend any money looking for new sources. So, while supply would not be an issue, COST would, because by the time they ramped up production enough to build all those cars, the limited supply would be decimated and prices would rise. If someone were to say it was worth $1,000,000 per pound, you could extract a near limitless amount from ocean water.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By jabber on 5/4/2009 5:29:08 PM , Rating: 4
Exactly! Titanium is actually one of the most abundant metals on the planet but the fact its difficult to extract and work with make it a high price substance.

Lot of gold in the ocean but its easier in the long run to dig it out deep underground.

Dont confuse abundance with ease of access or usability.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By JasonMick (blog) on 5/4/2009 10:49:51 AM , Rating: 4
Bolivia has an estimated 5.4 million tons, we have 410,000 tons, China has 1.1 million tons, and Chile has 3 million tons. Total world deposits equal 30 million tons.

Extracting lithium is an expensive and time intensive process of pumping water in to lithium-containing beds, then letting what bubbles up dry, then reprocessing it. Further, the majority of lithium is controlled by communist/nationalistic socialist states, making relations tricky.

While it still sounds like we have a LOT of lithium consider this. There are 600 million vehicles (appr.) on the world's roads today. With the battery pack in the Volt weighing 400 lb., even if just 10 percent of the battery pack was lithium, that would make for:
40 lb/(1 ton/2000 lb)*600 million vehicles = 12 million tons of lithium.

That means that to replace just one generation of vehicles, we'd have to use up 1/3rd of the world's lithium. That's a big deal, considering the demand-related price effects that would have on the electronics industry, drug industry, and other lithium-using industries.

True a minor adoption is not to dangerous (might spike resource prices just a bit), but major adoption just seems infeasible.

I do think A123's Nonophosphate provides a potentially promising alternative. But more research needs to be done to find a battery solution with a less scarce elemental basis. This would DRAMATICALLY reduce the price, and could provide a boost to the consumer electronics industry as an extra perk.

In the meantime, I say mild hybrids, direct injection, diesel, and cellulosic ethanol are the best bets for the near future.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By RjBass on 5/4/2009 10:52:46 AM , Rating: 1
I'm right there with ya Jason. Good post.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Jedi2155 on 5/4/2009 11:06:18 AM , Rating: 2
Based on this report:

http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Projects/Lithium_M...

A volt class vehicle (16 KWhr battery) would use about 40 lbs of lithium.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Jedi2155 on 5/4/2009 11:07:09 AM , Rating: 1
Which is right along with what you said, but there's a report to back it up for you.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Parhel on 5/4/2009 11:39:03 AM , Rating: 5
You're both confusing elemental lithium with lithium carbonate. Lithium Carbonate is what is used in batteries, and is about 17% or 18% lithium by weight. So, 45 pounds of lithium carbonate (as stated on page 25 of the article you linked to) translates to around 8 pounds of elemental lithium.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 3:10:57 PM , Rating: 3
Even so, based on prior figures other posters provided,

12 Mil tons per car generation / 30 Mil tons *.017 = ~ 1/15th of the total global lithium, still quite a large amount unless we managed to recycle & reuse all of it from one battery pack to the next.

Add to that, the situation with other portable electronics, tools, robotics, etc, depending on more and more lithium batteries.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Parhel on 5/4/2009 11:32:08 AM , Rating: 5
According to this article, one million tons of elemental lithium would be enough to supply the batteries for 560 million cars:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134838-lithium-sup...

To put that in perspective, there are around 250 million total passenger vehicles on the road in the US today.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By JasonMick (blog) on 5/4/2009 11:57:43 AM , Rating: 1
Interesting article, and good point, but from that same piece:
"Finally, in situ resources total approximately 30.0 million tonnes and a recovery of 50% seems probable."

That means that best case scenario is 15 generations of lithium EVs, considering the 1 million/560 mill. vehicles and no growth in number of world vehicles.

Now also consider, that the article also puts annual production at 115,000 tons per year. Assuming vehicles get replaced every 6 years, that means you'd have to approximately double current production. While that is feasible, that would definitely create big price effects on the lithium battery electronics and lithium-based pharmaceuticals market. Definitely, this a concern worth considering.

Also, revisiting the lifespan scenario, that means barring new resource discovery or difficulties in extracting current resources, that means we could have 90 years of EVs. While this is a fair amount of time, we certainly have at least 90 years of oil, as well, likely at least 2 centuries, if we use it efficiently. It seems questionable, imo, to replace one scarce resource with another.

But kudos, definitely for that source, I think it helps add perspective to the situation.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Steve1981 on 5/4/2009 12:00:24 PM , Rating: 5
Can the lithium batteries be recycled and processed to a new state again?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mcnabney on 5/4/2009 1:43:55 PM , Rating: 4
Yes. In fact, they are very easily recycled and their cost/value ration will make their reuse per vehicle at least 95%. Do you think the platinum in catalytic converters ever goes into the landfill?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 3:19:46 PM , Rating: 2
I would speculate that the value:recovery-cost ratio of platinum in catalytic converters is quite a bit higher than lithium in batteries.

Lots of things could be recycled on a car but aren't because of this low value:recovery-cost factor, and that manufacturing so as to make things at maximum recycleability instead of other properties like lower cost, better performance, goes against consumer purchasing preferences driving up the per unit cost even more.

This is bound to change in favor of higher recycling rates in the future, out of technology and necessity raising the material value:recovery-cost ratio, but for the time being it is a tough sell expecting people to replace a product with one costing substantially more but not giving them substantial benefit at it's core purpose.

ICE cars may some day be seen as crude junk, but for practical purposes they have gotten the job done for 100 years.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By randomly on 5/4/2009 8:00:04 PM , Rating: 2
The value/recovery-cost of the lithium batteries would be much higher than the platinum in catalytic converters as there is so much lithium in a single battery.

The value of a used electric car battery is also quite high since typically the battery would still have on the order 70%-80% of it's original storage capacity. Even if the battery is now pulled and used in conjunction with home solar systems, or for load leveling to reduce peak electrical grid demand from the growing number of electric cars being charged it still has very substantial value.

Another point related to the Lithium supply. Projected mineral reserves are based on what can economically be recovered at current market prices. However if you increase the market price the amount of recoverable reserves increasing rapidly since less concentrated ores can be used. A rough rule of thumb for mined resources is that doubling the price will increase the recoverable reserves about 10x.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/5/2009 1:00:25 AM , Rating: 2
If the used battery has that much of it's capacity remaining it's not like someone is just going to scrap it to have the lithium recovered, though I question whether it's really going to have that capacity since other modern Li-Ion batteries are down to far less within 4 years, some even to the point of making the device unusable even if that device was not drained and recharged daily like a car might be.

I agree that doubling the price would increase available lithium, but it would kill the very market they'd be used in as the battery pack is already too high a % of total car cost.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By sinful on 5/4/2009 8:08:43 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Interesting article, and good point, but from that same piece:
"Finally, in situ resources total approximately 30.0 million tonnes and a recovery of 50% seems probable."

That means that best case scenario is 15 generations of lithium EVs, considering the 1 million/560 mill. vehicles and no growth in number of world vehicles


Shouldn't that be:
That means that best case scenario is 15 tonnes of lithium which translates into 30+ generations of EVs , considering the 1 million/560 mill. vehicles and no growth in number of world vehicles
?

That would be 180 years worth of EVs, assuming no recycling.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By grandpope on 5/5/2009 11:52:42 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
That means that best case scenario is 15 generations of lithium EVs

You are assuming that nothing will be found that improves on the LiIon battery design in 15 generations of vehicles? Assuming a 3-year lease cycle (moronic, but let's run with it), thats 45 years of all the vehicles on the planet being with this technology.

Just think about what cars were like in 1964...


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By 91TTZ on 5/5/2009 1:54:05 PM , Rating: 2
These figures are assuming a 0% recycling rate on something that's easily recyclable.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By ArcliteHawaii on 5/5/2009 10:02:13 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
In the meantime, I say mild hybrids, direct injection, diesel, and cellulosic ethanol are the best bets for the near future.


I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from. Oil production hasn't increased since 2005 despite the enticement of $140 per barrel oil. We are either at peak production or within 10 years, after which oil production will begin to decline at 1-2% per year. After 90 years, we'll be lucky to be producing 20m barrels of oil world wide. Currently the US alone uses 12m barrels of oil per day for ground transportation (cars, trucks, & trains). Not to mention that oil prices will once again skyrocket once the economic recovery begins. Where will all the oil come from that will give us 90 more years of internal combustion engine transportation, given the increased demand (120m bpd in demand by 2030) and all the competing uses for oil (plastics, agriculture, pharmecuticals, etc.)?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By ArcliteHawaii on 5/5/2009 10:09:28 PM , Rating: 2
This analyst thinks so, and shows why:

quote:
Raymond James’s notes that non-OPEC oil production apparently peaked in the first quarter of 2007, and given precipitous falls in oil output from Russia to Mexico, there’s not much hope for a recovery. OPEC production—and thus global output—peaked a little later, in the first quarter of 2008, Raymond James says.

The contention rests on a simple argument: OPEC oil production actually fell even as oil prices were above $100 a barrel, a sign of the “tyranny of geology” that limits the easy production of ever-more crude.


Article link:
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/05/...


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By elessar1 on 5/4/2009 12:30:36 PM , Rating: 2
Adding to this, most Lithium is located in dried lakes, and at least here in Chile most of them are national parks or nature reserves...

And the Bolivians are home to natives communities that see the dried lake as theirs, and they are te only ones allowed to mine in it for subsistance...

So in order to "save the planet", we have to mine in protected areas that are very difficult or impossible to recuperate...

Nice moral dilema ;)


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By bhieb on 5/4/09, Rating: 0
RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By RjBass on 5/4/09, Rating: 0
RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By ArcliteHawaii on 5/5/2009 10:18:10 PM , Rating: 3
Except that there are actually substantial amounts of resources in Bolivia. There aren't in Alaska.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MrPeabody on 5/6/2009 10:18:42 AM , Rating: 1
Hahahahahaha! Ha! Ha! ah HAHAHahahahaha!

Ahh . . .

Wrong.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mcnabney on 5/4/2009 1:46:19 PM , Rating: 2
Dried lithium-bearing lake beds are some of the most inhospitable areas to life on earth. We aren't talking about draining wetlands or torching the rainforst. We are talking about distilling a wasteland.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MrPeabody on 5/4/2009 1:53:43 PM , Rating: 3
Which reinforces bhieb's comment. An interesting parallel to drilling for oil in Alaska.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_North_Slope


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By sinful on 5/4/2009 7:52:19 PM , Rating: 2
Of course, no discussion about drilling in Alaska is complete without mentioning the reason we don't drill there:

"In March 1989 a bill permitting drilling in the reserve was "sailing through the Senate and had been expected to come up for a vote"[15] when the Exxon Valdez oil spill delayed and ultimately derailed the process.[16]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Refuge_drillin...

"It is considered one of the most devastating human-caused environmental disasters ever to occur at sea."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spil...


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By jabber on 5/4/09, Rating: 0
RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Spuke on 5/5/2009 12:00:54 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Cant just go in with bulldozers so we can drive 'eco' cars of dubious environmental benefit.
Someone went in with bulldozers to build your home, what's so different about that place?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By jabber on 5/8/2009 2:20:00 PM , Rating: 2
Just have a long hard think about what you said there and come back to me when you realise how dumb that sounds.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MrBungle123 on 5/4/2009 1:22:03 PM , Rating: 2
Why don't we just pick a direction and go with it? Electric/battery powered cars are great and all but the fact remains that you can't fly a jet/comparable performance aircraft off electric power. We need a liquid fuel and from what I've seen the only thing we have a virtually limitless supply of is salt water so why not start converting it into hydrogen?

I know we lack the technology/infrastructure to do this on a massive scale today but we could start a research and infrastructure expansion project in the spirit of the Apollo Program or Manhattan Project and get it done. Get the best scientific minds in the world together tell them we need a liquid fuel that can power a 747 sized aircraft at 500MPH 6000 miles nonstop and the only things they can use to make said fuel is air, sea water, and electricity and see what happens.

I guess in reality the real problem is making the electricity since hydrogen is only a storage medium. Fusion power research anyone? But I really don't see why we can’t solve this problem if we can get over the political BS and start putting our resources toward real, practical, solutions.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By acase on 5/4/2009 2:16:04 PM , Rating: 2
Interesting idea, but that would totally ruin Waterworld for me.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Doormat on 5/4/2009 2:27:57 PM , Rating: 2
Algae producing diesel. Grow it in the Sonoran desert in AZ. I don't think it can completely replace petrol (the scale required is immense), but it would significantly extend the life of all oil reserves, plus it would cut net carbon.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Steve1981 on 5/4/2009 2:36:12 PM , Rating: 2
Combined with serial hybrid technology, I suspect algae diesel could go pretty far.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Spuke on 5/4/2009 3:44:30 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Combined with serial hybrid technology, I suspect algae diesel could go pretty far.
Yes, especially with the massive diesel demand in the US.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Steve1981 on 5/4/2009 4:00:05 PM , Rating: 2
Do you suppose crude will remain cheap forever? At some point, we'll need alternatives, and algae based bio-diesel has at least some promise.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By pequin06 on 5/4/2009 4:14:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Do you suppose crude will remain cheap forever?


Yes, the problem is with the politics involved.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Starcub on 5/4/2009 4:36:46 PM , Rating: 3
No, the problem is in the supply. We have about 30 years of peak oil left and then the resource will start to diminish. As oil diminishes, it will become even more expensive to find and extract. Keep in mind We use oil for a lot more than just gasoline.

Furthermore, the third world is exploding due to western 'free trade' expansion, and they will be looking for oil in ever greater quantities until it becomes economically unviable.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By pequin06 on 5/4/09, Rating: 0
RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Starcub on 5/4/2009 5:18:25 PM , Rating: 4
I think I'll trust the experts. We have technology today we simply didn't have decades ago when the experts were saying we were going to run out. However, regardless of wether or not you think we will find more, it will inevitably become more expensive, as it already is becoming. Inevitably, oil will become unviable, and it will probably happen in the coming generation.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By sinful on 5/4/2009 8:23:48 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
We were suppose to already run out of it but we keep finding more.


Actually, it's because the middle east never actually revises their remaining supply, regardless of how fast they're drilling it or how much they find.

They have a massive, massive economic benefit to lie through their teeth about their remaining supply:
#1 because they don't want anyone to even BEGIN to think about moving away from oil, and
#2 in OPEC the amount you're allowed to produce is related to how much supply you have.

A country that has 100 billion barrels of oil can produce say, 10 billion barrels of oil a year. If next year their supply goes down to 90 billion barrels of oil, now they can only produce 9 billion barrels of oil.

Needless to say, the middle east keeps "finding" more oil every year, but their new figures never take in account how much they took out.

In other words, they could run out next year but they would never, ever, tell you in advance that it's going to happen.

Why would they?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Spuke on 5/4/2009 4:56:15 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Do you suppose crude will remain cheap forever?
Even with the price "scare" last year, US consumers STILL didn't buy diesel cars. People were dumping year old $50k trucks and STILL didn't buy a diesel car to replace it with. There's little demand for diesel cars in the US. Maybe it will change in the future. But right now, that's the way it is.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Steve1981 on 5/4/2009 5:07:13 PM , Rating: 2
I never said algae based bio-diesel with serial hybrids would be viable tomorrow... At some point in the future though, they may make very good sense, especially in combination. We know that our supplies of gasoline aren't indefinite. Bio-diesel from algae on the other hand could hold promise in this regard, at least from what I've read on the subject.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By FITCamaro on 5/4/2009 5:09:36 PM , Rating: 2
People weren't buying diesel because the price of it spiked even higher than gas. Diesel got up to $4.60 a gallon here while premium "only" hit $4.20-4.30.

Build a bunch of greenhouses out in the middle of nowhere instead of a bunch of solar panels and you could produce a lot of diesel.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Starcub on 5/4/2009 5:22:31 PM , Rating: 2
There also aren't very many diesel vehicles on the market in the US.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Spuke on 5/4/2009 7:24:13 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
There also aren't very many diesel vehicles on the market in the US.
Because of US emissions standards and the stink and noise perception. Although, the noise isn't a perception unless you're buying a 08 and newer diesel.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Starcub on 5/6/2009 5:32:40 PM , Rating: 2
Actually neither noise nor stink complaints are valid anymore. The new deisel fuel standards made companies redesign their engines to be compatible with the cleaner burning fuel. Now they are cleaner, more quiet and smoother running than they were even just two years ago. I haven't checked, but I bet you can run bio-deisel in them safely now too. Some people constructed their own distillery for bio-deisel in their garage.

I test drove a Volkswagon Jetta TDI from before the new fuel regs were developed. Even then, the car ran comparably to my Nissan Sentra SE-R in terms of noise, though not quite as peppy. I think the turbo injection is tuned for efficiency instead of performance -- the gas mileage for the TDI was far better even though it was a slightly larger car.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By Spuke on 5/7/2009 5:25:31 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Actually neither noise nor stink complaints are valid anymore.
I agree. Not applicable but people still use it.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By luceri on 5/5/2009 10:14:39 AM , Rating: 2
Basically politics and marketing here leading to a lack of options and understanding with these vehicles in the U.S. plus consumers are uneducated with it. People not around / too young to know about the 1970's gas scare mostly don't really know anything about diesel engines, nevermind that they last longer / have better mileage / are better for the environment vs gas counterparts. People who were around and remember the 1970's with diesel engines will remember the cons of diesel back then but don't know of the advances the technology makes. They think it's going to smell like it did back then.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By A Stoner on 5/4/2009 3:13:11 PM , Rating: 2
um, yeah. While we are at it, let us propose that they create a perpetual motion machine while we are at it. yeah, there is energy in Hydrogen, but it require vastly more energy to split it from water than you will get in return for powering anything. That energy has got to come from somewhere. Then the Hydrogen has a very low power to overall density that would make it a very poor aircraft fuel, as well as car fuel. By the time you compact it enough that it will fit on the airplane, the containment system would keep the aircraft either on the ground, or requiring a vastly larger engine to power it into the air. Then there is always the fire (more likely explosive) risk involved with that kind of set up. Fuel must phase change into a gas before it ignites, hydrogen is already in that form. Everyone in on the Hydrogen powered future dream are either uninformed or hacks that are trying to get research grants, political power, or wealthy by wasting other peoples money.

The final flaw in your argument is that this is a political problem that if we all just could get along, it would all come together. It is an engineering/science problem, and the real problem is that there is NO solution from either of these. There are very few things in nature or the labs that have the mass/energy density of our current fuels. Ethonol is 80% +/- 5% that of gasoline and requires nearly as much energy to produce in it's lifecycle as it provides (not to mention that it creates vastly more smog causing ozone than gasoline and causes food prices to go up decimating poor people). Switching to all electric vehicles is going to require that batteries eventually can have the same mass/energy as our current fuels and also must be as quickly replenished so that families can still take road trips and be families (oh, did I mention that electric motors create ozone?).


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By mindless1 on 5/4/2009 3:27:42 PM , Rating: 2
You are thinking in terms of comparable performance which is not necessarily important. Most jets do not have maximum performance because there are other tradeoffs more important (besides jet fighters). Having a power source to fly at all might be seen as one of those important factors.

Converting water to hydrogen is far too energy intensive unless we had massive farms able to convert solar power to task, to the extent we didn't care how energy efficient it was because we had far more disposible energy than we needed.

If we developed such a technology to capture this much solar energy, instead of producing hydrogen we might as well skip that step since combustion is, in lower expense and complexity engines, still a pretty lossy fuel.

What we really need are miniaturized nuclear power engines, a standardized modular power plant that can be used across various equipment by scaling # of units used. Next we need to install windows on every one so some hacker can come along and really pwn us all.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By foolsgambit11 on 5/4/2009 5:05:13 PM , Rating: 2
Out of curiosity, does anybody have numbers on current efficiencies (water to hydrogen and back to water resulting in power) in hydrogen fuel cells? Let's ignore practical problems with energy density in storage &c. for the moment. Does anybody have numbers on what is expected to be reasonably feasible as far as total efficiency for hydrogen? How does hydrogen stack up as an energy storage medium versus other storage techniques (gravity, battery, heat, &c)?


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MrBungle123 on 5/4/2009 5:27:47 PM , Rating: 2
this is my understanding from what is at wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis

Looks like using current tech nuclear electricity to hydrogen chemical energy is somewhere between 25 and 40% efficient with a theoretical max efficiency of 80 to 94%

They say we can get the equivalent of a gallon of gas (1kg of hydrogen) for $5.55 (using wind for the power source) nuclear is about half the cost of wind so a nuke plant could make the same for ~$2.77 kg.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By randomly on 5/4/2009 7:48:08 PM , Rating: 2
Currently the round trip efficiency of electric power to hydrogen back to electric power in the car is quite poor at only about 25% efficient. The fuel cells are around 50+%, the efficiency of electrolysis cells is also around 50+% and there is a 12% energy loss for energy storage via compressed gas cylinders (currently the most efficient means).

Although higher efficiency's have been obtained by fuel cells in laboratory environments these are at very low current densities and such a system is not practical for a car.

Hydrogen is unfortunately a pretty poor energy storage medium. Bottom line is that Batteries are 3-4x more efficient energy storage system than hydrogen.

Although Hydrogen gets a lot of PR billing and play as the Green miracle pollution free energy system in actual fact the overall system efficiency is quite poor. There is also no miracle technology known that will improve the situation other than small incremental improvements.

Hydrogen will remain the darling of people and companies looking for Green Washing PR points. However at this point the technical and economic limitations make many engineers and scientists think a widespread deployment of a hydrogen economy is extremely unlikely. As one of the speakers at an alternative energy conference put it " Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, and it appears that it always will be."

An MIT study came to the conclusion that even with projected advancements, by 2020 a hydrogen fuel cell car would still be less efficient than a simple diesel hybrid.

Unfortunately the only high efficiency way to make hydrogen is to reform natural gas (~85% efficient). That doesn't help you get off fossil fuels though.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MarcLeFou on 5/4/2009 3:38:25 PM , Rating: 2
I'd much rather see the automotive needs folded into electricity than hydrogen.

There's always the prospect of generating electricity at the individual level (as is sun or wind power on my roof) down the road (granted that's MANY years down the road) to keep utility prices in check. The easier it is to create the resource to power our cars on an individual level, the cheaper its going to be (in an unlimited supply scenario such as electricity).

I think electricity will give the consumer more options, hence lower prices, down the road rather then replacing a controlled resource with another.

As for diesel hybrids, I personally can't understand why there's so little talk about this. The strength of one compliments very well the strength of the other. I'd be curious to see a diesel hybrid mpg on a car like a prius compared to their gas counterpart.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By foolsgambit11 on 5/4/2009 5:38:20 PM , Rating: 2
You've confused storage medium with power source. Wind, PV solar, diesel-producing algae, etc. are energy harnessing techniques. Batteries, hydrogen via electrolysis, pumping water uphill, heating water (or other medium), or whatever - these are all energy storage techniques.

Say you've got a wind turbine on your house. The electricity can be directed to a battery, which will accept the charge up to its capacity, or it can be directed to some water, where it will electrolyze the water into oxygen and hydrogen, which can be stored up to the capacity of the storage tank. Or any of several other energy storage methods. But most every storage method would be considered a "controlled resource", as you put it. Batteries are a controlled resource. They are expensive, and have a limited lifespan. Granted, hydrogen production and storage equipment (on a reasonable scale) is probably more expensive than batteries, at least at the moment. But if we're going for cheap power storage, a water tower is about as cheap as it gets. Not great for powering cars, though....

I won't deny that batteries are one of the more promising storage media for vehicles at the moment, thanks to their energy density, and the maturity of the technology. But in any case, thinking you'll be able to produce enough energy on your property to run your car for any appreciable distance, at any point in the not-too-distant future, is probably unrealistic. Much better to use power generated on-site to offset domestic power uses, which opens up many more energy storage techniques for consideration.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By sinful on 5/4/09, Rating: 0
RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By MrBungle123 on 5/5/2009 10:44:07 AM , Rating: 3
Wrong.

quote:
Our economic and military strength require that we end our strategic vulnerability to an oil shut-off by nations like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, and that we address environmental concerns. To do this, Governor Romney has called for a bold and far-reaching research initiative- an Energy Revolution- to be our generation's equivalent of the Manhattan Project or the Moon mission. This will be a mission to create new, economic sources of clean energy.

-Mitt Romney, Republican Presidential Candidate 2008


The people in this country have got to get over the political party stereotyping and educate themselves... and no spending 4 years in a leftist indoctrination center (Liberal arts College) and watching CNN does not make you politically informed.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By ArcliteHawaii on 5/5/2009 9:40:42 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
TextIn the meantime, I say mild hybrids, direct injection, diesel, and cellulosic ethanol are the best bets for the near future.


Even better than that is investment in public transportation that runs off of baseload electricity. Heavy high speed rail between major urban centers, light rail and subways for inner city travel, and electric buses running getting power from overhead guy wires can provide most of the transport needed for people. People would be a lot healthier too, having to walk a block or two to catch the public transport. With peak oil rapidly approaching, and no viable alternatives currently ramping up, we need to invest in public transportation in a massive way.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By petrosy on 5/4/2009 8:04:41 PM , Rating: 1
The Solar Uyuni where the lithium is located is probably the most incredible place on earth I have ever seen. I hope they never sell out.

Any one who has ever been their will know that mining that area will be a crime to humanity. Yellowstone park does not even compare to this place but imagine the US goverment decideds to let motor industry tear it apart just so that we can drive big ass cars.... food for though. Just because its not inthe US does not mean its not worth anything.


RE: Why is Lithium scarce?
By nugundam93 on 5/5/2009 8:43:46 AM , Rating: 2
hahahahaha love your PS there. reminds me of a study done by some japanese where they investigate low suicide rates and local water supply laced with a wee bit of lithium.

going back on topic, i really do wonder how these electrics will affect lithium supply all 'round.


it = what?
By thornburg on 5/4/2009 9:56:29 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Geoffrey Styles, founder of the energy consultant GSW Strategy Group, says that even at $4/gallon gasoline, customers would take six years to recoup the cost differential between it and the Volt -- and that's with a $7,500 tax credit, and a significant loss per vehicle for GM.


Emphasis added. You can't say "cost differential between it and the Volt" withouth ever having said what it is. Are we talking about a Malibu? A Cobalt? A Prius?




RE: it = what?
By mherlund on 5/4/2009 10:09:04 AM , Rating: 2
I believe they were referring to the gasoline-fueled peer of the Volt.

quote:
"[The Volt] is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable."


RE: it = what?
By DrKlahn on 5/4/2009 10:25:46 AM , Rating: 2
This cost difference exists for all Hybrids, not just the Volt. Naturally the amount varies and many existing hybrids are enjoying a slight profit due to production maturity. But the cost difference is still large and takes several years to overcome. Basically the same thing said in the Limbaugh article a while back.

If we were smart, instead of pushing ridiculous fuel standards and expensive hybrid systems we would require any manufacturer selling cars in the United States to contribute a percentage to the various Universities for R&D. Get an actual alternative to fossil fuels rather than continue to band aid the technology.

People continue to get bigger. The average family is still around 4 people. These tiny cars lack the room and utility to be viable for a large number of consumers. And though there are a few larger hybrids, the small mileage increases just aren't large enough to justify the added complexity.

Personally I wish we would concentrate more on getting hydrogen to be a viable alternative to fossil fuels and moving our electrical grid to nuclear.


RE: it = what?
By Parhel on 5/4/2009 11:00:22 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
But the cost difference is still large and takes several years to overcome.


That's entirely dependent on the price of gas. If it stays at $2.00, then you're absolutely right. If prices go back up above $4.00 a hybrid makes a lot of sense.

I'm on the fence, and am delaying buying a new car for that reason. I want a CTS, and if GM offers the employee discount for everyone again, I may get one. But, in the back of my mind, I keep thinking that by the end of my next car's life gas will be at $6.00 and I'll wish I bought a Prius.

quote:
People continue to get bigger. The average family is still around 4 people. These tiny cars lack the room and utility to be viable for a large number of consumers. And though there are a few larger hybrids, the small mileage increases just aren't large enough to justify the added complexity.


The Prius is solidly in the midsize car category. It seats five - four comfortably - and has plenty of cargo space.


RE: it = what?
By Suntan on 5/4/2009 11:32:18 AM , Rating: 3
Are you seriously saying that you are comparison shopping between a CTS and Prius based on what you think will happen with fuel prices in the future? Where’d you come up with the rational for that?

Is there anyone else out there that still views vehicle as more than just transportation appliances, or am I all alone???

-Suntan


RE: it = what?
By Parhel on 5/4/2009 11:45:54 AM , Rating: 2
I admit, it does sound silly. I guess I'm trying to balance what I want, what makes financial sense, and what I won't be embarrased to be seen driving.


RE: it = what?
By Suntan on 5/4/2009 1:22:57 PM , Rating: 3
A minute or two of searching in my area turned this up:

The price you could get them down to on this would probably be equal to or less than the price of a new Prius with a couple of options.

It will still give you more miles under B-to-B warranty than the Prius and will be a lot more satisfiying.

The turbo 2 liter engine is a nice one and it is relatively good on gas, although it does take high test.

Would the Prius be a better buy from a cost standpoint? Maybe. I'll let the ultra-anal bean counters around here argue that (...then I'll show them the price of a 1 yr old Honda Fit...) However, I just don't see the "cost savings" in buying a Prius when you factor in the downside of actually having to *own* and *drive* a Prius.

In this day, I don't understand why anyone looks at "new" cars when they say they want low cost. Cars made in the last couple of years are remarkably reliable and will last much longer than our short attention spans will want to keep them. And there is such a glut of "certified Pre-Owned" cars with increadably long extended factory warranties that this becomes a non-issue as well.

I have yet to see a real world scenario where the Prius is either the best option for someone looking for the lowest total ownership cost, or the least impact on the envornment. If these are important to anyone, they can do much better elsewhere. Basically, only people that just *want* to own a Prius are making the best choice by buying a Prius.

http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.jsp?ct=c&car_id=...

-Suntan