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Adams Media Research feels now may be the right time to test out the Internet TV download market

A new study done by Adams Media Research estimates that annual consumer spending on downloads of movies and TV shows via the Internet will top $4 billion in 2011, which is a vast increase from the $111 million revenue generated last year. 

"The Internet is going to revolutionize the distribution of video," said Tom Adams, Adams Media Research president.  With product launches from the likes of Wal-Mart, Apple and Amazon, analysts have long speculated that consumer spending would increase dramatically.

Devices such as the Apple TV should also help increase the popularity of Internet video downloads.  Some analysts believe the next three or so years could be the most crucial if video downloads are really going to explode as expected.  Adams Media Researcher predicts that video download sales will be around $472 million this year, ~$1.2 billion next year, ~$2 billion in 2009, ~$3.1 billion in 2010, and will hit ~$4.1 billion in 2011.

Until the average consumer can comfortably connect their TV to the Internet, it appears that ad-supported video will be the most popular option available to consumers over the next couple of years.

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lol
By nomagic on 2/22/2007 7:07:17 AM , Rating: 3
I am not so optimistic, and I believe that the market will get saturated before the 4 billion mark. Although music download sales exploded in the past few years, it doesn't automatically imply that the same will happen to video. Fisrt, the replay value of video usually does not rival that of music. Moreover, watching a video clip takes more attention and opportunity than listening to a song. For example, wathcing a video and driving a car don't go well together, but listening to music and driving a car can be done at the same time. Therefore, a person can only devote a fixed amount of time per day to watch video. However, listening to music can be more flexible in comparison. As a result, video downloading sales will saturate fairly quickly.




RE: lol
By SquidianLoveGod on 2/22/2007 7:16:36 AM , Rating: 2
Actually In my car I have several DVD's worth of Music Videos, And thats my music source, It allows passengers in the back to watch and listen to the music videos while we go for a drive, Which is something that happens rather often, Plus when Traveling from my home town to Adelaide, its an 8 hour trip, And me another driver take turns on the driving, so one of us is always sitting in the back watching music videos.
Downloadable videos may not be everyones thing, But with all media players starting to emerge with colour screens, Video support etc I do expect to see an iTunes kinda' store just for Music Videos and such.


RE: lol
By nomagic on 2/22/2007 7:28:10 AM , Rating: 3
You are correct. I just thought that the estimation was too optimistic.


RE: lol
By tuteja1986 on 2/23/2007 1:49:15 AM , Rating: 2
I still don't get people buying video on itune to watch on computer because the quality of video is crap that it is not funny. Its only for good for ipod so i don't see as Apple tv device being so great.


RE: lol
By lucyfek on 2/22/2007 10:49:06 AM , Rating: 2
network will also get saturated right away if everyone wanted to push some video, and since the access seems to be capped at well below infinity, the ISPs may also ask for few $ for "abusive" usage.


An interesting future
By alifbaa on 2/22/2007 9:56:48 AM , Rating: 2
I am excited to see where this all goes. I think Netflix's venture into this market will be indicative of things to come. Their service should be up in June, and will offer near DVD quality streaming video essentially on demand. That this is feasible is clear, what remains to be seen is how good the quality will be when they have thousands of people downloading thousands of movies at once. Bandwidth will quickly become an issue. This will only get compounded when demand for HD quality video increases. Bandwidth for those applications will be 4-5 times the SD demands. To compete effectively with disc based sources, the quality difference will have to be unnoticeable and the cost will have to be the same or very slightly higher. I just don't know how they can do that given the bandwidth requirements.




RE: An interesting future
By StevoLincolnite on 2/22/2007 2:58:04 PM , Rating: 1
Bandwidth shouldn't be a concern Several companies are looking into the torrent technology as a form of distribution, For instance they host the tracker, And then they have a FTP stream which helps out the torrents bandwidth, Every user shares there bandwidth while downloading, which can considerably reduce the amount of stress on the FTP server.
The only problem with Torrents I can see is with ISP's for Instance down here in Australia our largest and most widely available broadband company is Telstra, You might as well forget about Cable down in Aus as only a fairly small percentage are able to get that, Satalite is to exhorbant in price, Wireless has all capped plans, Which leaves ADSL Which is also capped plans, where you get throttled down to dial-up speeds after you hit 10gb, Even if 10gb sounds like a fair bit, That 10gb also includes uploads as well, Which while seeding and downloading will use that quota up really quickly...
But I think the future is with Peer 2 Peer for distribution methods, The more people downloading in theory the faster you will get it, That moves most of the bandwidth requirements from the Server to the Downloaders who want the content, Which could also cost the consumer allot more in the long run. As Internet Speeds Increase, Video Quality and thus download sizes increase there needs to be more innovation in the Internet distribution methods to keep up pace.

I for one could handle a Torrent site, that was legal, Which offered downloadable movies for a few dollars for a once of viewing, Or even dare I say it... Ad supported.


By Ralph The Magician on 2/22/2007 8:26:12 PM , Rating: 2
Bandwidth is a primary concern precisely because services like Joost ARE using P2P technologies. Most ISPs have monthy bandwidth caps, and these kinds of services are going to start eating into that faster and faster.

You think that the ISPs are going to just sit around and wach their profits disappear? No. As soon as a service like Joost goes mainstream, you're going to have people hitting bandwidth caps left and right. People are aleady getting cut off for too much torrenting.

P2P video will not be free. In the end, you'll have to pay for it in both higher costs for broadband, and possibly even the services themselves.

This is one space where the telcos actually make a lot of sense in their anti-net neutrality stance. If a net neutrality bill ever passes, it's just going to result in bandwidth costs shooting through the roof.

Right now most ISPs around the world have bandwidth caps of less than 100GB. In most of Europe, it's more like 5GB-20GB. Here in the US, ISPs like Comcast give you a very generous 200GB, so long as you keep your upload/download ratio in check.


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