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Print 9 comment(s) - last by Quiescent.. on Dec 18 at 1:14 PM

Semiconductor industry expected to see significant profit reduction in 2009

More doom and gloom is in store for the semiconductor industry as the economy shows no signs of getting better and many analysts predict things are going to get worse yet.

Gartner Inc. released a statement today that shows global semiconductor sales will decline by 16% in 2009 thanks to the economic slowdown, which has led to decreased consumer spending and decrease in orders from manufacturers.

Gartner expects total semiconductor sales to decline to $219.2 billion. Last month, Gartner predicted that the global semiconductor market would decline by 2.2%. Preliminary numbers from the research firm show that 2008 revenue has declines 4.4% compared to the $261.9 billion the global semiconductor market generated in 2007.

Gartner said, "The financial crisis is having an unprecedented negative impact on fourth-quarter 2008 sales and profits, surpassing the 20 percent decline record set in the second quarter of 2001."

The research firm predicts that sales this quarter will plunge 24% compared to the previous period. 2009 could be the first year on industry history that two consecutive years saw revenues decline. Gartner isn’t alone in predicting a bad year for the semiconductor industry in 2009. Bloomberg reports that analyst firm SIA expects sales to drop by 5.6%, the first decline since 2001.

Most think of CPUs when the word semiconductor is mentioned, though semiconductors include DRAM technology as well. The DRAM market abroad is in dire financial straits with many smaller companies, and even some of the larger ones drastically cutting output. Some of the smaller firms may be forced out of the business altogether or forced to merge to maintain viability. The Taiwanese government is even looking at issuing loans to help solidify its national DRAM business during the financial crisis.

Gartner VP Andrew Norwood told Bloomberg, "(the DRAM) market is so bad that suppliers must either significantly scale back supply, or the weaker players will be forced into mergers or bankruptcy. (Gartner is) Expecting DRAM pricing to firm during the second half of 2009, and this has the potential to moderate the decline in 2009 semiconductor revenue.''

Gartner says that with all of the profit warning, 2009 will be a very weak year across the industry. Analyst Raffaella Sommariva said, "After all the profit warnings, 2009 will be very weak."

AMD is one of the hardest hit firms in the semiconductor business. AMD announced in early December that it was cutting profit projections by a massive 25%. The same day AMD announced that it was cutting its ownership in the foundry spin off that resulted from splitting its design and manufacturing arms.

AMD originally owned 44.4% of the new company along with investors from the Middle East. The new arrangement has AMD selling a further portion of its ownership in the Foundry leaving it holding 34.2% of the new company. The deal brought AMD $700 million in investment from ATIC, one of AMD's partners in the Foundry spinoff. With all of the trouble, surrounding AMD, and other companies in the semiconductor industry many wonder how much longer some of the firms can hold out.



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This is a little creepy!
By Quiescent on 12/16/2008 4:10:14 PM , Rating: 2
Just as I commented yesterday on how I thought businesses similar to the DRAM business were going to collapse along with the DRAM business if no action is taken. Making it a given that they are struggling too, these two pop out of no where, the ones I was thinking of: NAND flash and Semiconductors.

Well, I guess I was more knowledgeable on the subject than I thought... But I still know I am not too knowledgeable.




RE: This is a little creepy!
By Oregonian2 on 12/16/2008 4:28:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Just as I commented yesterday on how I thought businesses similar to the DRAM business were going to collapse along with the DRAM business if no action is taken.


Just bought a pair of 1066 Mhz GB OCZ DDR2 memory sticks. Retail in onesies including shipping was twenty-something dollars (for the pair). In large companies the paperwork selling it to you would cost more than that. DRAM seems to be more of a race to see who can lose the least, at least until a few more drop out of the race.


RE: This is a little creepy!
By Quiescent on 12/16/2008 4:56:38 PM , Rating: 2
I do agree. Even the 2 sticks of 2GB DDR3 18000 (PC3 14400) RAM I have been eyeing is below $200 after rebate. And it's considered a pretty high end peice of purdy RAM. But I doubt that they are making a profit off of selling this RAM.


RE: This is a little creepy!
By FaceMaster on 12/16/2008 5:26:40 PM , Rating: 1
I'm expecting to drink less alcohol and be a better person in 2009... but I doubt I will be.


RE: This is a little creepy!
By lagomorpha on 12/16/2008 7:33:20 PM , Rating: 3
I'm trying to be more realistic: I expect to drink cheaper alcohol in 2009.


RE: This is a little creepy!
By whiskerwill on 12/17/2008 10:22:49 AM , Rating: 2
I don't know why you think businesses "need" government action to survive. People are always going to be buying chips. If they buy a bit less the next few years, companies will just have to cut back some. Surely that's better than your tax dollars going to support them?


RE: This is a little creepy!
By Quiescent on 12/18/2008 1:14:14 PM , Rating: 2
Surely if it were the case that the severity wasn't too severe at all? Like I said in my last response: We need a temporary and permanent action: Temporary action is to rescue their asses out of their own mistakes, Permanent action is to implement laws to make sure businesses stay in check and don't do anything stupid if they have a huge effect on the national and/or global economy.


the end is near
By Dreifort on 12/16/2008 2:09:00 PM , Rating: 2
Sales may be falling now...but it's only a matter of days now until we release our Thumb Drive CPUs onto the public! muhahahaaha.




So the chips are down
By mpgenius on 12/17/2008 3:05:36 AM , Rating: 2
They'll be back up again in the mean time check out this site: http://www.thepcpartshop.com




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