The Obama administration has big plans
for electric vehicles. The administration poured
$2.4 billion USD into the development of electric vehicles and
battery technology in March 2009.
The $2.4 billion was taken from the
$787 billion USD economic stimulus bill and provided $1.5 billion
directly to automakers, $500 million for companies that build
electric vehicle components, and another $400 million for research
and infrastructure. This is in addition to up
to a $7,500 tax credit that is available to those who purchase
plug-in hybrid vehicles.
However, despite all of the money being
thrown at the electric vehicle industry, the payback for consumers is
continually being questioned. The latest backlash is in a new study
coming from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) according
to the Detroit News. The report suggest that consumers
won't see a payback for the energy/fuel savings of all-electric
vehicles for roughly 15 years. The upcoming Chevrolet Volt, however,
fares even worse -- according to the BCG, the payback timeframe for
the vehicle is a whopping 19 years.
The main reason for the disparity is
battery technology. Advances in battery technology to provide greater
range for vehicles have not come fast enough. Likewise, the
astronomical price tag of batteries used in vehicles like the Tesla
Roadster and Chevrolet Volt won't be coming down to more acceptable
levels anytime soon.
Even more troubling is BCG's assertion
that a 15-kWh battery pack which costs $16,000 today will still cost
a hefty $6,000 ten years from now. BCG suggests a number of things to make
electric vehicles more palatable to the U.S. consumer with two of
the more outrageous options being a 210 percent increase in the gas
tax or oil prices skyrocketing to $375/barrel.
And it's not just BCG that is
predicting doom and gloom for the electric vehicle industry.
DailyTech reported in late December that the National Research
Council (which is funded by the U.S. Energy Department) also didn't
have too many kind words to say about the feasibility of electric
vehicles. In addition, the relatively small $2.4 billion that the
Obama administration has already funneled into the electric vehicle
market would have to be expanded to hundreds of billions of dollars for
the vehicles to proliferate in the marketplace.
With both of these studies coming to
the forefront within weeks of each other, it's hard not to look back at
comments Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen made in
September 2009. He commented on the Volt's high asking price,
stating, "No one is going to pay a $15,000 premium for a car
that competes with a (Toyota) Corolla. So
there are not enough idiots who will buy it."
With regards to pure electrics, he
added that they are "for the intellectual elite who want to show
what enlightened souls they are." More recently, de Nysschen
commented that "paying
customers to drive your cars is not sustainable," in
reference to the aforementioned $7,500 tax credit.
Despite the controversy and negativity
surrounding plug-ins and all-electrics, manufacturers are still
shifting money and resources to the production of such vehicles. The
Chevrolet
Volt will be out later this year and Nissan is readying its
all-electric Leaf for production. Toyota is working on a production
version of a plug-in Prius and Tesla is speeding along with further
development of its Roadster
and the production version of the Model S.
The vehicles are coming and there's no
stopping them -- it will just take some time to see who is
"stupid" enough to buy one.
