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Analysts believe iPhone will sell 3 million in 2007, and Apple plans to ship them all in one day

Worried about not being able to grab an iPhone when it launches on June 29? Don’t be. According to BusinessWeek’s sources, Apple plans to have a whopping 3 million iPhones for sale on launch day, dwarfing nearly all other consumer device launches in history.

While the iPhone’s pricy entry of $499 may initially scare off enough consumers so that the device won’t immediately sell out, Apple still maintains a goal of selling 10 million units by the end of next year. Analysts are pegging the iPhone to sell only 3 million this year, which could mean no further iPhone shipments until 2008, when sales are estimated to surge to 10 to 12 million.

Piper Jaffray Cos. analyst Gene Munster believes Apple could sell 40 million iPhones in 2009, majorly boosting Apple’s bottom line, but that may not happen without a lower-cost model intended for the more casual phone user.

The iPhone’s June 29 date was revealed last week through a series of 30-second television spots, with one ad even showing the device’s superiority over the iPod. At the end of each spot is the reveal of the June 29 launch date, along with the AT&T smaller print reading, “Use requires minimum new 2 year activation plan.”

Last month, a report stated that the iPhone would be an AT&T network exclusive product for five years. Verizon, who turned down the chance to carry the iPhone, says it will have a comparable product announced late summer.



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I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/8/2007 10:21:36 AM , Rating: 5
"Apple still maintains a goal of selling 10 million units by the end of next year"

That is one of the most hilarious goals I have ever seen. They should seriously not embarrass themselves this way. Its like saying they will increase thier MAC platform to 10% of the world market... Rediculously laughable.

Lets see, I would say add 3g connectivity and lower the price to $199 and you will sell 10 million. LOL @ Apple. Once the launch hype dies down and people realize its just another phone, and it has problems all the debate will end. Its another Q, only better features and HUGE price tag.




RE: I can't believe Apple.
By tuteja1986 on 6/8/2007 10:47:36 AM , Rating: 1
Well if they sell 10million units by this year they beat Nintendo at supply.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By erector16 on 6/8/2007 11:34:39 AM , Rating: 2
They said they hope to sell 10 million by the end of *next* year.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By Finality on 6/8/2007 11:29:34 AM , Rating: 2
Well considering 10 Million units is 1% of current total volumes its not at all laughable.

Besides US consumers are not used to higher end expensive devices the rest of the world is.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By smartin684 on 6/8/2007 12:14:16 PM , Rating: 2
Apple says 10 Million, but they didnt say at what price. Prices should fall dramatically by the middle of next year as well as an update to the phone, so you are LOLing, but in your statement you are picking an arbitrary 199 price point and then saying they could reach their goal.

I say they could reach their goal by dropping to a 299 price point. Totally reasonable goal.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By OblivionMage on 6/8/2007 3:42:48 PM , Rating: 5
I just don't understand why someone would want one, I mean, I use a cell phone because its cheap, and it doesn't matter if I drop it. If I had an iphone I would be protecting it with my life, just not worth it IMO.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By dice1111 on 6/8/2007 6:15:58 PM , Rating: 4
Whats wrong with cheaper merchandice? Not every one can, or wants to spend hard earned money on frivalous products. Not everyone is Paris Hilton. Believe it or not, some people buy products based on function, not fasion.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:00:01 AM , Rating: 2
There is nothing wrong with cheaper merchandise, I was only answering the parent question.

He asked why anyone would buy one of these things.

Again, you bring up "frivolous". Is a CD player frivolous? Is a DVD player? A BluRay player? A plasma TV? A wireless network? A quad core CPU?

Yet there are plenty of people who buy these things (CD players used to cost hundreds of dollars; they wouldn't be available now for $25 unless someone bought the first expensive ones)...

You seem to imply the iPhone lacks function, yet from every demonstration/video or report, the iPhone has superb function, but charges a premium for it's usability.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/8/07, Rating: 0
RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/9/2007 2:55:55 AM , Rating: 3
The reported stats on mac market share have varied from 2-5% for a decade, depending on the source.

When the iPod came out, the market barely knew what an MP3 file was. It's not the same situation at all with cell phones.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 3:15:44 AM , Rating: 2
In 2002 IDC reported Apple's US market share as 3.48% and sixth place:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2002/07/03/marketshar...

IDC then reports in 2004 that they are have hit 4%:
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/...

In 2006, after the Intel transition, IDC reports they hit 4.8%:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/07/20/marketshar...

By the last quarter of 2006, they hit 5.1%:
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2007/01/18.9.sh...

I see it as a good thing; increased competition can only make Microsoft produce better software, which in turn ends up benefitting the remaining 94% of the market using Windows.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By rtk on 6/10/2007 3:29:04 AM , Rating: 2
Exactly as I said, depending on the source...

The last link you posted actually links to a gartner report. Doing another google search produced this link:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FF...

"Gartner reported in January 2007 that the worldwide PC market in Q4 2006 grew by 7.4% over the previous year to 67.3 million units. Apple sold 1.6 million Macs in that quarter, giving it a mere 2.3% of that global market."

If you read the whole article, it helps explain the wide swath of stats that one will come across.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/10/2007 10:30:15 AM , Rating: 2
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FF...

good point RTK, it truly is a pick and choose stats game. As I mentioned before Apple has not grown thier market share on the MAC platform in 10 years. Not at all, in spite of what M2k wants to believe, or which stats he chooses to show (or beleive).


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/10/2007 7:10:11 PM , Rating: 2
Not at all; I was very careful with my "sources". I stuck to only IDC and I stuck to only US market share.

When limited to that criteria you can see Apple is increasing market share every year.

It is a lot harder to measure global market share because Apple's presence is so small.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By retrospooty on 6/11/2007 9:58:53 AM , Rating: 2
"It is a lot harder to measure global market share because Apple's presence is so small."

Exactly...

And to use only one source when every source has a different result in not a fair comparo. Most reports show Apple is at 3% global (give or take 1) and has been there steady for about 10 years. I would guess that equates to 5% US Market (give or take 1) My point is their share is not growing. It has been minimal for a decade and OSX, and Intel chips have not broken that mold.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By michael2k on 6/11/2007 12:46:26 PM , Rating: 2
You ignore my point entirely.

Apple's US market share has grown, in the past five years, from 3.48% to 5.1%; I didn't bring up worldwide because Apple's share is so small that it's hard to measure percent differences, but that's not true in the US. In the US Apple is ahead of Sony, Acer, Lenovo/IBM, Toshiba, NEC, and Fujitsu. Only Dell, Gateway, and HP were ahead.

If you want to argue, you should argue THAT point; that Apple has somehow managed to grow market share int he US and move ahead of all the Japanese/asian PC manufacturers in the US.

Next step, of course, is the world :)


By hannibal da mekanikabull on 6/12/2007 9:49:50 AM , Rating: 2
No, I didnt ignore your point, I just pointed out a part of your point that made my point. ;)

I do believe Apple's US market share may have grown a bit the last year+, but the overall world market share has not changed. The other point is that you cannot beleive one single source when researching market share, as many different counts yield different results. Most still have Apple at 3%, gaining no ground at all.

anyhow, this is an iPhone artcle and the iPhone is being hyped along with the iPod craze and it is NOT an iPod, the smartphone market is far more sophisticated and picky (and difficult to deal with when you add in the cell carrier) than the iPod market. Good luck to Apple. they will need it.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By defter on 6/8/2007 3:39:44 PM , Rating: 2
3 million at launch isn't that much considering that over 3 million cell phones are sold every day.


RE: I can't believe Apple.
By ToeCutter on 6/8/07, Rating: -1