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Leaf expected to sell well says Ghosn  (Source: Nissan)
Both brands will have four EVs in their lines

The auto industry is doing better today than it has in months past, but they still have a way to go before things are back to the point they were before the economy tanked. Many automakers are betting on electric vehicles (EVs) as the next big thing in the automotive industry along with hybrids. Many automakers are rushing to get full electric vehicles on the market to meet what they expect to be a big consumer push.

Renault Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has given up a few details on the plans for EVs from Nissan and according to Ghosn, Nissan and Renault plan to jointly build 500,000 EVs each year by the end of 2013. He stated that Nissan plans to sell 20,000 electric Leaf vehicles in the US over the next year. He further predicts that Nissan will be "capacity constrained" for the Leaf for the next three years.

Nissan and Renault will each have four EVs in their respective lines by 2013. The four EV Nissan models will include the Leaf and will include one EV luxury car branded with the Infiniti badge. Nissan also has plans to produce 200,000 battery packs annually and 150,000 vehicles in the U.S. alone by 2014 in its Leaf factory in Tennessee.

Ghosn also stated that he expected EVs to account for 10% of all vehicles sold globally by 2020 claiming that the 10% figure is "very reasonable."
Detroit News reports that Ghosn also expects global auto sales to increase 3% in 2011 by about 2.5 million units sold.

At the same time Renault Nissan are talking up EVs that are coming, there are calls by EV advocates for businesses to use more EVs. The group is made up to retired military and business leaders and is asking Congress to do more to boost EV use for business around the nation. The group is called the Electrification Coalition and wants 150,000 more EVs in business fleets by 2015.

Big companies like FedEx that do huge amounts of driving are some of the main targets by groups looking to improve EV use in businesses. FedEx CEO Fred Smith said, "The case is very strong for a number of fleet applications over the next five years. Fleet electrification alone will not solve our pressing energy security challenges, but by bringing costs down, it will provide a critical boost to the consumer electric vehicle market."



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The Real Use for EV's
By tng on 11/16/2010 10:56:03 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
"The case is very strong for a number of fleet applications over the next five years. Fleet electrification alone will not solve our pressing energy security challenges, but by bringing costs down, it will provide a critical boost to the consumer electric vehicle market."


OK, looks like allot of EVs will be showing up on the market in the next 3-5 years. What percentage will be in use by businesses as opposed to private usage? 90/10? 80/20?

I bet that it really never does make much of an impact on the standard consumer market.




RE: The Real Use for EV's
By kattanna on 11/16/2010 11:18:54 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I bet that it really never does make much of an impact on the standard consumer market


there will be a small initial rush to buy an EV, but it will be a long time until it is any really sizable chunk of total sales.

EV's as of right now are just too limiting for the masses with their limited range and long recharging times, with nothing to say about a serious lack of recharging infrastructure, which given enough time can be over come, but not initially.

will we see some on the roads in major cities, you bet. more rural areas, not so much.

also, the bit about the auto companies looking towards EV's as their economic saviors, LOL. People need to have money to spend first, which a great many dont have right now. once thats fixed, buying of new vehicles will naturally return.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Murst on 11/16/2010 11:24:19 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
I bet that it really never does make much of an impact on the standard consumer market.

The impact of this is huge on the consumer market. Once you scale up production on EVs (and all of the required parts), the costs should start going down very quickly.

Lower costs will also mean better range, and that's on top of the advancements that will (most likely) already happen with the extra research in this field.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By MrTeal on 11/16/2010 11:40:26 AM , Rating: 3
Up to a point, an electric car is constrained by physics just as much as any other vehicle. It seems that people hear electric and think that you will see improvements on a timeline similar to the increase in power of a computer. We won't, not even close. There's been a lot of research already into low drag shapes, while there might still be improvements to be made they won't be huge. It's still going to take significant energy to send a car down the road at 60mph regardless of the drivetrain.
The motors and controllers used are already very efficient. There are gains to be had of course, but you can't get it over 100%, and that will limit it.

Better batteries and better charging infrastructure will be the key to getting the EV market off the ground, but that's a long way off. As an addendum to that, just having more quick charging stations won't solve the problem; people will not give up a gas car for long trips if they have to stop every hour to recharge, even if the quick charge only takes 5 minutes.

Baring 200-mile+ range vehicles being introduced at reasonable price points, single vehicle families won't be able to switch from the gas guzzler if they do any amount of traveling.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By rvd2008 on 11/16/2010 1:21:44 PM , Rating: 1
Long range drivers should stop every 2-3 hours and rest for 15-30 minutes for safety reasons. This should be enough to re-charge future EV. As long as there is a fast charging post.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Spuke on 11/16/2010 2:35:58 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Long range drivers should stop every 2-3 hours and rest for 15-30 minutes for safety reasons.
That's your opinion. If it's during daylight hours, I can drive up to 4 hours without stopping. When we do stop, it's for food as our truck only requires a fill up every 500 miles or so of highway driving.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By tng on 11/16/2010 1:33:45 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The impact of this is huge on the consumer market.
Don't think so, mainly because of limited range
quote:
Once you scale up production on EVs (and all of the required parts), the costs should start going down very quickly.
Well, yes, but that is true in almost any mass manufacturing. Also remember that just because something is cheap, does not mean that it will sell like hotcakes. Range is the key, without good range, only limited urban sales are likely.
quote:
Lower costs will also mean better range, and that's on top of the advancements that will (most likely) already happen with the extra research in this field.
While more sales will mean more private R&D into batteries, just pouring money on a project does not mean there will be huge advances in technology. Right now huge sums of money around the world are going into battery R&D to get a decent range out of a pure EV and the best that we see now is about 100 miles? Talk to me when they can get 300 and then we have a workable EV for the masses.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Murst on 11/16/2010 2:36:34 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Don't think so, mainly because of limited range

I'm not even sure how to answer this, honestly. I just don't see how you can think that producing 500k EVs will not have any benefits for the consumer market, even if the initial 500k aren't really targetted at the consumer. That would be like saying in the 1960s that research into computers is pointless from the consumer point of view because computers are too big and expensive.

quote:
Also remember that just because something is cheap, does not mean that it will sell like hotcakes

At this point, price is probably the biggest issue with EVs. Most people do not need a car that travels more than the range of "current" EVs.

quote:
While more sales will mean more private R&D into batteries, just pouring money on a project does not mean there will be huge advances in technology. Right now huge sums of money around the world are going into battery R&D to get a decent range out of a pure EV and the best that we see now is about 100 miles?

Even without *any* advancements in battery technology, mass production of EVs will cause an increase in range.

If a battery costs $10k to produce now, and it will cost $5k to produce once they're making 50 times as many batteries, you'll be able to effectively put twice as much batteries in a car for the same price. That by itself should close to double the range of the car.

quote:
Talk to me when they can get 300 and then we have a workable EV for the masses.

That's why its so great that Nissan is committing to this. You don't really expect a company to go from buliding 0 EVs to building 10 million EVs overnight, do you? They're slowly ramping up production.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Spuke on 11/16/2010 2:39:32 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I'm not even sure how to answer this, honestly. I just don't see how you can think that producing 500k EVs will not have any benefits for the consumer market, even if the initial 500k aren't really targetted at the consumer.
Being able to build 500k EV's is not the same as being able to SELL them. What's the market demand for EV's? That's the real question.

quote:
At this point, price is probably the biggest issue with EVs. Most people do not need a car that travels more than the range of "current" EVs.
That's what YOU need, that is not necessarily what everyone else needs. Are planning to buy a Leaf or other EV?


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Murst on 11/16/2010 2:53:47 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Being able to build 500k EV's is not the same as being able to SELL them. What's the market demand for EV's? That's the real question.

Well, that's really the company's problem. The neat thing about the market is that it will decide if they were right or not.
quote:
That's what YOU need, that is not necessarily what everyone else needs. Are planning to buy a Leaf or other EV?
I'm not sure why you want to tell me what I need or don't need. Its funny how some people can take a general statement of fact and try to apply it to individual cases. Or are you trying to argue that most people in the world need a car that travels more than 50km between charges?


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By tng on 11/16/2010 6:26:12 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I'm not sure why you want to tell me what I need or don't need. Its funny how some people can take a general statement of fact and try to apply it to individual cases.
Isn't that what you just did by saying that most people didn't need that range?

quote:
Or are you trying to argue that most people in the world need a car that travels more than 50km between charges?
I am not sure where you live but the point that Spuke and I are trying to make to you is that we live in areas of high traffic and have long drives to and from work. My drive when I am working at the office is 75km one way, I am pretty sure that allot of people here have the same type of commute.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Dr of crap on 11/17/2010 10:29:02 AM , Rating: 2
OK - People will be SLOWWW to adapt EV's.
Why switch - gas is old hat and we are used to how it works. Now you want to switch to something that requires people to think about they're cars and if it might need a charge so they can get to work or shopping!?!
Not going to happen to fast.

Second -
Renault wants to produce 500k, but they forcast 2.5 million cars sold a year. My math makes EV production 20% of the total cars produced. NO way that many EVs will be bought. They will sit on the lots and have to be discounted to get them off the dealers books in a timely fashion.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By Connoisseur on 11/16/2010 3:00:15 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Talk to me when they can get 300 and then we have a workable EV for the masses.


Actually, isn't it possible that, given appropriate financial motivation, consumers will change their driving habits? I keep reading comments along the lines of: "It's not feasible until it can achieve distance parity with gas engines." Well what happens when gas prices go up significantly (double or triple)? Will most people still continue to need to drive 200-300 miles per fill up? Is it not possible that they'll view stopping every 100 miles or so an acceptable inconvenience given potential price savings?

This is all speculation of course, but I feel that it's unfair to compare upcoming technologies using the current norm as the baseline (or ideal) situation. Who knows? For all the complaining about EV range, this change may yield additional social benefits. One person mentioned that drivers SHOULD stop every 2-3 hours to rest on a long road-trip to avoid fatigue.


RE: The Real Use for EV's
By tng on 11/16/2010 6:37:53 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Actually, isn't it possible that, given appropriate financial motivation, consumers will change their driving habits? .....what happens when gas prices go up significantly (double or triple)?
When prices triple, the economy will slowly grind to a halt or at least a slow crawl. Prices will go up, but I think that the people who supply oil, oil companies and all others involved realize that is is not a good thing to price the product so no one can afford to go to work on a daily basis. Consumer backlash has funded the push towards EVs in the first place.

Also it is really not that simple either. I have a house that I make payments on now. Yes it is fairly far from where my office is. I could rent an apartment nearby for double what my house payment is and settle for half the space.

Of course that is just what allot of people who think of themselves as "Green" would want me to do to save the planet.


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