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Notebooks fly past desktops in consumer PC sales

The writing has been on the wall for years concerning the rise of the notebook computer. Notebooks were once relegated to business professionals and the upwardly mobile types that didn't mind paying $1,000 USD or more to “cut the cord.”

However, Intel's Centrino campaign coupled with lower component prices have allowed the notebook market to blossom. Society's craving for wireless Internet access anywhere and a shrinking performance gap between desktops and notebooks have finally allowed the former to rise to the top in consumer PC sales.

Notebooks for the first time outsold desktops during 2007 for the consumer market. Online retailer Amazon.com reinforced the dominance of the notebook with its sales stats for the holiday season – 16 of its top-selling PCs during the holiday season were notebooks.

While consumers are quickly adopting notebooks to replace desktops, corporations are also making the switch – albeit at a slower pace. For this reason, notebooks still trail desktops slightly in overall PC marketshare.

Notebook sales increased to 31.6 million units during 2007 (a rise of 21 percent) while desktop sales dipped to 35 million units (a fall of 4 percent) for the overall PC market. Notebooks are expected to gain momentum in the coming years and are projected to reach 66 percent overall PC marketshare (71 percent for consumers) by 2011.

Consumers have been quick to snap up current bargain-basement 15.4” notebooks which can often be had for $399 to $499 at retailers like Staples, Best Buy and Circuit City – often without rebates attached. While these cheap desktop alternatives often come with integrated graphics, Celeron-M or Pentium Dual Core processors and usually 1GB of memory, their specs are more than enough to browse the Internet and plow through productivity applications.

Manufacturers like ASUS have also opened the floodgates at even lower price points with the Eee PC. The Eee PC starts at $299 for a model with a 630MHz Celeron-M processor, 512MB of RAM and a 2GB solid-state drive (SSD). The meager specifications for the Eee PC family haven't stopped consumers from snatching the sub-notebooks up at a record pace and ASUS is projecting to sell 3.8 million of the devices during 2008.

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Surprising? Not really.
By Enigmatic on 1/2/2008 2:43:38 PM , Rating: 2
Considering laptop prices are actually somewhat competitive with desktop prices this makes them a much more viable option for those who prefer some mobility. I think the lower flexibility in upgrading doesn't really affect the average user who tends to avoid upgrades anyways.

In my house we have 4 computers that are set-up and running (many more which are disassembled though). But our last two computer purchases have been laptops so I can see that even my household is indicative of this trend. You can a get a laptop with a large screen, pentium dual-core, 1-2 gb of ram and with 120-160 gb hdd for well under $700 and that's more than enough computing power than most people need.




RE: Surprising? Not really.
By monitorjbl on 1/2/2008 2:47:23 PM , Rating: 2
Yeah, a lot of colleges are starting to require students to have laptops now as well. I think that counts for a significant chunk of the sales.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By xsilver on 1/2/2008 3:08:07 PM , Rating: 3
That itself would largely come down to them being so cheap nowadays.
5 years ago the cheapest model would be 3x-4x what they are now.
Plus even a cheap celeron-m laptop is going to be more than enough power for most users who only surf and do word processing.

Im surprised though that there hasnt been a laptop developed with a 15+ cell battery because if everyone in a class or a conference room has a laptop; im not sure all locations will be able to provide 1 power socket per user. Also if you forget to charge the thing at night, you're boned for the next day.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By rudy on 1/2/2008 3:59:56 PM , Rating: 5
Yeah but in this day and age what user just surfs and does word processing? As people become more computer literate they immediately jump to using the PC more for other things. I see people gaming in every spot you can find a hard connection on campus. I don't care if the Laptop replaces the desktop so long as it does not come at a price as we have seen with displays. You simply can't find an LCD display that can compete with 7 year old high end CRTs for performance and flexibility. And sadly gamers like me are getting pinched into a corner thanks to the mass market not wanting CRTs anymore. Laptops are expensive to upgrade and many times barely upgradeable. I dread the day when production of desktop components will drop to the point manufactures decide not to produce them at all as is the case with CRT monitors. And with games like crysis coming out and blowing anything we have away I don't see the need for high end machines and the ability to upgrade going away.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By ImSpartacus on 1/2/2008 4:41:09 PM , Rating: 2
By the time desktops are retired laptops will be just as upgradable as desktops are now.

Think of how desktops started, could you upgrade one of the first ibm's? How about the apples after them? At some point, someone figured that an end user could upgrade his own dekstop and started to build compatible parts.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Souka on 1/2/2008 4:55:01 PM , Rating: 1
Hey, I had an Apple ][+ in 1979...running on 48k of ram...

1980 I upgraded it to 64k...and it was soo much better with it....and for several years after other upgrades were done by my brother and I.

So yes... desktops have been upgradeable for quite some time... :)


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By xsilver on 1/2/2008 5:48:27 PM , Rating: 3
Go check out your local library for a mix of "non hardcore" pc users.
See what you find
Result: email / word processing /flash games /youtube clips

Your barebones laptop that supports the above plus has a large enough hard drive for 6mp photo's will be more than enough for 60+% of users. Wireless NIC is also a requirement these days, but Im not sure if there are new laptops that dont ship with one these days.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Pirks on 1/3/2008 2:51:20 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
Laptops are expensive to upgrade and many times barely upgradeable
This does not bother most of the buyers. People just replace the whole machine most of the time, noone but a couple of techies cares about upgrades.
quote:
with games like crysis coming out and blowing anything we have away I don't see the need for high end machines and the ability to upgrade going away
Crysis is a failure and a sales dud, unfortunately, and in general gaming seems to be less and less tightly bound to your classic PC with powerful and expensive CPU and GPU. Crysis sales are laughable -> in future there will be no games like Crysis anymore -> less desktops sold -> more notebooks sold. Plain and simple. People just don't need the UberPower of the desktop anymore.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By rudy on 1/2/2008 4:04:33 PM , Rating: 2
On a side note it would be nice to see someone come out with a "portable" desktop sort of a lanputer idea. Something with say a 20" screen and a small form factor case attached and some sort of harness to hold the keyboard and mouse together. Give it an optional batter given how often I can find a batter and how bad the batter life on powerful laptops is, I find it the batter on a laptop is not really all that needed. I have had multiple people I helped purchase a laptop tell me they simply did not care about batter life for these reasons when asked if they wanted to sacrifice performance for batter life.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By InternetGeek on 1/2/2008 5:01:21 PM , Rating: 2
Look for Desktop Replacement laptops. THey are sized anywhere between 17" to 21". They are still portable but heavy. Basically they are portable workstations.

I got mine and haven't thought about a desktop anymore... might never get one again (desktop).


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Ringold on 1/2/2008 4:27:36 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
a lot of colleges are starting to require students to have laptops now as well.


I would hope that's a limited trend. I for one rationalized the purchase of a laptop that way, and it ended up being used perhaps once every 3 months. I used it quite a bit early on, but I recognized that I retained information better through a mix of watching and writing notes by hand, which took more effort. I probably could get similar results by focusing harder while typing, but why fight it when the result came naturally writing by hand?

Besides, frankly, if you walk across the back of any college class room and look at whats on people's laptop screens, you might see Office on perhaps 10% of them. If you're lucky, might even see someone playing WoW!

Once I got home, the power, size and versatility of my desktop means the laptop is virtually never used at home. 15 inch screen with a loud fan under load, no upgrade options and slower components, or a 20" beast that can barely be heard due to 12cm fan goodness?

It gets used when I travel, but thats about it. To help with portability, I'll get a 10-inch screened EeePC if/when they hit the market.

Maybe I'm an enthusiast and therefore biased, but laptops.. have limited appeal.

I think perhaps once laptops are as saturated amongst American consumers as desktops presently are the trend may reverse or significantly slow down. Desktops may never reign again, though, as laptops must be trashed while desktops can be upgraded, I'll admit. That is, unless some sort of standard comes in to play and we can, as users, start modding them to our hearts content -- but that would endanger the industries glorious and entrenched forced upgrade cycle.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By InternetGeek on 1/2/2008 5:04:16 PM , Rating: 1
Most laptops can be upgraded these days if you shop wisely. For example: go for the 3d-powered laptop.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By TomZ on 1/2/2008 5:39:03 PM , Rating: 4
That's a lame argument, since there's still a world of difference between desktops and laptops in that regard. Think about it - how many laptops let you upgrade the keyboard, mouse, display, audio, video, etc., let alone giving you the opportunity to make larger changes like changing the motherboard or power supply. Forget about it.

That said, I do understand the trend towards laptops in the consumer space. They are smaller, easier to set up, readily portable, etc. - overall very convenient.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Pirks on 1/2/08, Rating: -1
RE: Surprising? Not really.
By monitorjbl on 1/2/2008 8:10:12 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
And who's gonna replace MOTHERBOARD on a notebook? Your average consumer? Riiight...

You know, I've done that quite a bit on my desktop. If you like a case, and you want to keep it, its a rather straightforward task to upgrade everything inside since all of the parts are standardized.

Aside from that, capacitor problems, spilling coffee on your notebook, and several other legitimate things are very good reasons for a "normal" user replacing a laptop's motherboard outside of the manufacturer's warranty. It's a shortcoming of notebooks, don't think otherwise.

Though I have to say, the worst shortcoming is the lack of video upgradability for integrated graphics notebooks. Upgrading the graphics gives an old desktop a much longer life.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Pirks on 1/2/2008 8:53:05 PM , Rating: 1
Normal user just sends his/her machine to the service depot or something. Don't think otherwise.

Upgrading videocards works only for gamers, and how many of these left? Look at console vs PC game sales - nobody cares about those gaming videocards anymore. CONSOLE is The Word today, especially Xbox 360.

Normal people just throw away or sell old machine and buy a new one. And techies are a tiny minority. Hence the success of notebooks.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By monitorjbl on 1/2/2008 10:01:17 PM , Rating: 2
Well, like I said, outside of warranty, a user isn't left with many options besides dumping his old laptop and getting a new one. It's usually pretty expensive to replace a laptop motherboard without a warranty, to the point that replacing the entire notebook is cheaper, whereas a replacement desktop mobo can be found for (usually) around $150 if the case is standardized. Even if it isn't, you can still find replacement boards for desktops much more easily than you could a notebook.

I wouldn't say that no one cares about PC gamers, look at WoW, it's got around 9 million users now. Videocards are important for non-gamers too, they help with Windows Vista's Aero interface, and if you ever wanted to run the OS, it would be nice to buy a $70 video card for a laptop to make it work better, which you can with a desktop.

I'm not saying that "normal" users will always do this, it's just that they aren't given the option with notebooks, which is a shortcoming of the product.


RE: Surprising? Not really.
By Pirks on 1/2/2008 10:24:38 PM , Rating: 1
For the non-techie normal user there's not a big difference between replacing mobo in a dead desktop or in a dead notebook - in both cases he'll pay a lot. Serviceman makes sure he pays a lot, you know ;)

WoW and Vista have no need in gaming cards, they work great on the integrated ATI video chips. And if the notebook is so old that it can't handle Aero, then replacing notebook's video card without replacing everything else will make Vista so slow that the user will buy a new notebook anyway. Hence this is a moot point.

Normal users tend to replace machines as a whole, rather than doing upgrades, since they don't know what is upgrade. Hence notebooks attract the normal users. Techies - yes, for them desktops could be better, I agree. If the world's population consisted of only techies then probably desktops wouldn't lose the market share to notebooks. Desktop is the best techie's friend, you're right on that.