DailyTech - Notebook Shipments Surpass Desktops

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Gadgets Notebook Shipments Surpass Desktops
Shane McGlaun (Blog) - October 28, 2008 9:47 AM

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27 comment(s) - last by Quiescent.. on Oct 30 at 1:23 PM

Notebooks shipped more than desktop for the first time ever

The computer industry is still growing despite the fact that some PC makers are unable to hit previously high profit margins. Notebooks continue to be very popular and have reached a milestone.

IDC reports that notebook shipments have surpassed desktop shipments for the first time. In Q3 2008, notebook shipments were 55.2% of the PC market. IDC says that the record setting ratio was helped by a record number of notebooks shipped during the quarter. Netbooks have been making up a significant portion of computer shipments, which would have helped the ratio as well.

In Q3 2008, over 9.5 million notebooks were shipped in the U.S. for 18% growth year over year and quarter over quarter. Data shows that all leading computer venders shipped greater numbers of notebooks during the quarter. In fact, DailyTech reported in September that Apple had set record sales numbers with many of the sales being notebooks.

According to IDC data Sony, Acer, and Lenovo each exceeded 65% notebook to desktop ratio for shipments during the quarter. Based on the strong growth in the U.S. notebook market some new vendors are coming to America including ASUS and Samsung. Samsung is reentering the U.S. market, but ASUS has been here for a while with its Eee netbooks and other notebook systems.

IDC manager David Daoud said in a statement, "The consumer market continued to be the top driving factor in the notebook offensive but the commercial sector played a critical role too. The consumer market has long favored notebooks, with mobile ratios exceeding the 70% mark. So it is clear that the small and mid-markets, as well as the enterprise and public sector buyers, are seeing good value in mobility. Looking ahead, while mobility will remain a leading growth factor, the economy will be a major wild card in the short to mid term. Prolonged economic tension could have an adverse effect on the PC space leading to reduced growth, but the good news is that virtually every buyer considers PCs as must-have products and not a secondary wish-list items."

The end of 2008 is building to potential record levels for the consumer electronics industry including the PC industry. While overall holiday sales are expected to be at the lowest level since the early 1990's, consumer electronics sales are expected to grow by a healthy percentage this holiday season.

A recent study by the CEA concluded that consumer electronics sales would grow by about 3.5% this holiday season. The average consumer will spend $1,473 over the holidays on food, gifts, and decorations. The study also found that consumer electronics devices held four of the top ten spots on most wish lists behind world peace. Another research firm called TNS Retail Forward says that consumer electronics will grow over the holiday season as well by about 4% while the overall retail industry will only see 1.5% growth.

With notebook computers in the second spot on top 10 wish lists for most adults, computer makers may be in position for significant holiday sales. That is assuming of course that the economy doesn't fall further from its current state.

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Makes sense

By bhieb on 10/28/2008 10:49:31 AM , Rating: 2

Most people for the last 2 years have had excess CPU power for what the vast majority of user do (email, word processing, spreadsheets). Arguably even a 3 year old box can manage those tasks fine. So it makes sense that most new purchases would be to augment the desktop already in the house.

RE: Makes sense

By mmntech on 10/28/2008 11:16:08 AM , Rating: 2

Laptops have caught up with desktops in a sense given that mobile CPUs are now as powerful as their desktop counterparts while still offering excellent energy efficiency. Apple for example uses mobile Merom or Penryn cores in most of their systems except the MacPro.

People like laptops because it untethers them from a desk. They like to be able to take their system outside, on the bus, or to class. Since I dropped out of PC gaming and modding, I find I rarely use my desktop now. Today's trends in tech are seeing everything go mobile. It was no surprise that laptop sales would go up. They offer an all-in-one experience and they now sell for a reasonable price.

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RE: Makes sense

By kelmon on 10/28/2008 1:11:22 PM , Rating: 2

That's pretty much my position on the subject. For many years I had a dim view of laptops (Pentium, Pentium 2 and Pentium 3 based systems from HP and Dell) because they were much slower than desktop PCs. However, when I switched to the Mac I bought a PowerBook G4 because I didn't have the room for a desktop and it was fast enough for what I was doing at the time. These days I'm using a MacBook Pro for everything and I can't see any reason to go back to a desktop.

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RE: Makes sense

By Pirks on 10/28/2008 3:24:06 PM , Rating: 2

What's really cool about notebooks from the point of view of a gamer is that you can get a cheapo gaming notebook like Gateway P-173X (nVidia 8800GTS inside) for just $1329 + shipping and enjoy all your sweet PC games on the go. I'm currently exploring the dark spooky corridors of USG Ishimura on my fresh new P-173X, and IT IS AWESOME!!! I think I gonna run all my games on it now, the old desktop will be used only for the really rare stuff like Crysis. Gaming notebooks from Gateway are da new wave indeed! Get such a Gateway, get a Steam, then get a EA Downloader, and you're all set. I guess since the last PC heavyweight studio (Crytek) is gone console as all the others the desktop is really finally dead.

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RE: Makes sense

By Flunk on 10/28/2008 3:41:59 PM , Rating: 2

Well, not quite. Notebooks are still behind the curve by about 2 years. Also, discrete graphics are very expensive and normally impossible to upgrade. It's more that they are fast enough that most people don't really care about the lower performance or higher cost.

There will always be some applications for desktops but for most things people are happy with notebooks.

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RE: Makes sense

By Maskarat on 10/29/2008 8:05:08 AM , Rating: 2

... and your rhetoric is based on what???

Stretching your logic we could say that desktops are 2 years behind the curve, cause server are so much more powerful, have got better upgrade paths, and support fibre channel storage, something not available for current home desktops.

DUH!

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RE: Makes sense

By michael2k on 10/28/2008 11:17:47 AM , Rating: 2

I think what we are seeing is households growing into multi-computer units: 1 per person, much like cell phones.

It makes little sense to have 1 PC per person, as that requires a desk+chair+office space. A laptop per person, however, only requires 1 outlet and any place a person can sit.

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RE: Makes sense

By Oregonian2 on 10/28/2008 1:23:48 PM , Rating: 3

Until laptops have 24" LCD monitors in them (do they?) I still vote for having the desktop "first" and laptops added on as secondary (I know one can hook such a monitor to a laptop (and drive full resolution?) but having that and perhaps a full sized good keyboard attached really makes it qualify as a hybrid desktop because the chair+desk+etc setup is still there).

I see things more along the line of desktop(s) plus laptop(s) in a mix.

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RE: Makes sense

By amanojaku on 10/28/2008 5:01:47 PM , Rating: 2

That depends on your point of view on what a PC (Macs are PCS, too!) does. Plenty of people, particularly businesses, have switched to laptops despite the small screens. Adding a larger screen and (wireless) keyboard makes a laptop much more attractive than a desktop as you can take the laptop with you and do everything you could at your desk. If the price and performance are similar the smaller form factor wins. Think about it: you have to buy a monitor and keyboard with a desktop, anyway, so you're just cutting out a redundant piece of hardware.

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RE: Makes sense

By Oregonian2 on 10/29/2008 1:55:44 PM , Rating: 2

You've exactly described what I called a "hybrid desktop" in my posting. It's a desktop (desk, chair, monitor/keyboard space is all there) where a portion of it is a laptop when removed.

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RE: Makes sense

By Inkjammer on 10/28/2008 11:39:24 AM , Rating: 2

I find the transition funny at times. Most of my family have moved to laptops or SFF desktops, and every so often one comes over to our place and sees my CM Stacker 830 case... and their mind is blown. They can't comprehend the size of it (it's pretty effin' big).

Then again, the average user doesn't understand PC performance at all. It's frustrating for geeks like us, but they just understand theirs has "the Intel" and that's good enough for them. Which boils down to why laptops work so well for most people. They don't understand what they need, just what they want. And they just want to check their e-mail and some light office work.

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RE: Makes sense

By StevoLincolnite on 10/28/2008 12:05:53 PM , Rating: 2

Your not the only one, Recently I upgraded my granny's rig from a Pentium 3 Katmai running at 500mhz to an Athlon XP 2000+ - And the only difference she has noticed is that Microsoft Word boots up slightly faster than before, Now she is contemplating on getting a Netbook with an Atom 1.6ghz but managed to talk her out of it as she has bad eye-sight and the screen would be far to small. (She enjoys her 28" LCD) - As far as Gaming goes, the Popcap and Gamehouse games run flawlessly at 1024x768 with all settings on maxed with only a little TNT 2 Ultra overclocked and 384mb of PC133 SD Ram.

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RE: Makes sense

By Quiescent on 10/29/2008 2:02:14 AM , Rating: 2

It's all about performance, baby! Once you go with a computer that opens your programs up like it's nothing and does everything in that program like it's nothing, you never want to go back.

I remember when I got my AMD 3000+ 1.8Ghz with 1GB of RAM and a 7800GT, how it felt when I was still working on my 400mhz pII with 384mb of RAM and a 32mb VRAM video card. It seemed like that PII machine was soooooo sloooooow, even though before it seemed to be the fastest I ever used. Now I've used a Q6600 with 8GB of RAM and an 8800GT graphics card for a whole two weeks and feel like that AMD socket 939 PC I still have is a POS! It's SLOOOOOOOOOOW!

So for some of us, we like the performance, and sometimes you get what you pay for, meaning that a lot of those cheapo $400-500 laptops are really junk in performance, even after a pretty fresh install.

You may not see it, but anyone like me will notice the difference down to the most subtle bit of performance boost.

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RE: Makes sense

By Quiescent on 10/29/2008 2:09:25 AM , Rating: 2

In addition, when a real business is having to do something that isn't supposed to take time, they want a computer that will respond as fast as possible. They want a fast machine that will open that program up down to the 100ms that you clicked on it.

And this is coming from someone who has an EeePC 4G Surf. Yes it's slow, but I am still surprised by how fast this celly runs. However, it's ability to multitask is TERRIBLE.

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RE: Makes sense

By Maskarat on 10/29/2008 8:10:11 AM , Rating: 2

No wonder you don't run any businesses! Busisnesses want cost efficient not fast. If a Pentium 1 is enough for your job, that is what you will get!

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RE: Makes sense

By Quiescent on 10/29/2008 1:35:24 PM , Rating: 2

I don't know... I thought it was cost effective to have a computer built for your business that will last you longer.

Sure a PI will work, that's 1990s hardware. But if you look at it from a prospective that "Will this hardware last long for me?" Then you need to fork out a little bit more money to have someone build you a computer or even go for the little bit more pricier machines in the pre-built machines.

Why do I say this?
My school bought from either Gateway, Dell, or HP. Didn't matter which brand, they bought from the low-end brand.

By the end of the year to about the end of 3 years, hardware was failing right and left - NIC cards were failing, onboard video cards were failing, RAM was somehow failing, etc.

Is this really cost effective?
No.

This is why building a PC is cost effective. Sure you just paid $500 for a nice PC, but it has warranties that will you benifit you in the long run. Further more, your PC will last you longer, because you didn't skimp and used cheapo hardware.

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RE: Makes sense

By Quiescent on 10/29/2008 1:47:16 PM , Rating: 2

Excuse me, I just woke up, lol.

For more detail - those prbuilt machines were out of their warranty. If you have someone build a machine for you, even for $500-$1000, then your machine will last you longer than 3 years, which is the average time I'm seeing prebuilt machines last since 2000.

1990s hardware is during the time when they never really had a handle on how to mass produce hardware the cheapest way possible, so you had fewer times that hardware would fail. I still have that PII gateway machine, and it still works. You can't say that for new prebuilt computers today.

So when your hardware fails and it's not covered under the warranties because it's prebuilt, then you pay more money to either get replacements or to get new computers. Plus because most companies buy from the low-end side of prebuilt machines, they're going to have to continue to buy every 5-10 years anyways, because what if they needed new software that wouldn't run on that PII?

Once more, with having someone build your PCs for you, you have a minimum of 1 year to about 5 years to limited lifetime warranties. THIS is cost effective. Warranties are your lifeline. If something fails, you just have to worry about how much it's going to cost you to do an advanced RMA.

Why do a lot of companies spend money on the low-end prebuilts?
They're ignorant and don't understand the cost effectiveness of having a good machine built for them, you don't even need a good graphics card, but having one to use that isn't onboard has been proven to be a little better, because the heat the processor produces is making the onboard video work real hard. Thus why many fail so fast.

They don't care. They make enough money each year that they're completely blind to less cost effective it is to buy cheapo low-end prebuilts.

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RE: Makes sense

By Quiescent on 10/30/2008 1:23:20 PM , Rating: 2

Ah, again I didn't wrap it up here for you, I knew I was missing something.

In the long run, when you build that $500-$1000 PC, it will last you a very long time, it will have a variety of long warranties, and further more, it will probably be a quad core with 4GB of RAM and some crappy video card. Imagine that. I did a price check and found that you could make a semi-low-end quad core with 4GB of DDR2 RAM for $500 or a high-end quad core with 4GB of DDR3 RAM for $1000.

For me, since I'm into music production, I'm sticking with my q6600 65nm, but I'm going with a high end board for overclocking and supports RAM that is soon to be the mainstream RAM. DDR2 will soon be the thing of the past, and if it's one thing I learned about buying parts for my AMD 939 socket computer right when Core2duos came out, it's that by the time you need to seriously upgrade, you have to do a whole upgrade, not just the RAM or something else. DDR RAM is expensive, nobody sells socket 939 mobos, nobody sells socket 939 processors either, in the end, I have to do a complete upgrade, and I will do it so that my machine will last 5 years in technological lifetime, and at least 10 years in performance lifetime.

End Blabbering and Stuff

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Processing power

By JRi on 10/28/2008 11:11:34 AM , Rating: 2

Web surfing may need more power only because adds (Flash and other animations) on the pages use so much resources. This is one not-so-nice reason I need to upgrade my 4 years old system soon.

RE: Processing power

By Chadder007 on 10/28/2008 12:07:10 PM , Rating: 2

Yeah, Flash is a bit high on the resource side.
My old Pentium 4 2.6ghz has trouble with certain pages sometimes with a lot of Flash on them.

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RE: Processing power

By kensiko on 10/28/2008 9:53:02 PM , Rating: 2

True, I need Firefox or Flash to use my 4 cores !!

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RE: Processing power

By StevoLincolnite on 10/28/2008 12:09:11 PM , Rating: 2

I dunno, before I upgraded my Granny's machine which was a Pentium 3 500mhz Katmai it managed Firefox 3 with heavy flash websites, and sites like Youtube just fine, Firefox took a few seconds longer to load than it does on my T8100 Penryn Laptop but that was to be expected, for Internet you don't need a Dual-Core or even a fast Single Core, only time I can see it needing more processing power is if you have a GPU that cannot hardware accelerate MPEG video sources, but considering that even old Chips like the Intel i740, Savage 4, Matrox MGA can do that in hardware anyway...

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Unplugged

By chmilz on 10/28/2008 11:20:30 AM , Rating: 2

Anyone not see this coming? Didn't think so.
Every day I despise my desktop more and more. I'll most likely keep a monitor, speakers, and external storage around for when I make the switch to laptop early next year.

RE: Unplugged

By Inkjammer on 10/28/2008 11:42:18 AM , Rating: 2

My geek secret is that as much as I love my ultra powered, OC'd rig, I'd kill to have all that power in an ultra slim format case. If only laptops were truly upgradable...

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Netbooks

By TomZ on 10/28/2008 11:57:28 AM , Rating: 2

quote:
Netbooks have been making up a significant portion of computer shipments, which would have helped the ratio as well.

Anybody know what percentage of laptop shipments were actually netbooks? I'm wondering whether the netbook trend has really taken hold or whether it is something that is just getting a lot of hype. I don't personally know anybody who owns one.

RE: Netbooks

By StevoLincolnite on 10/28/2008 12:10:46 PM , Rating: 2

Neither do I, I don't really have a use for one, except to grab one, overclock and mod the crap out of it and try running the most demanding games I can find just for a laugh, I do see allot of 14.4" or larger laptops however with Intel IGP's, which are priced rather cheaply.

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Is the convincing enough evidence ...

By SunAngel on 10/28/2008 2:39:11 PM , Rating: 1

... overclockers are a minority?...that maybe one or two of them will see the light and realize that its simply a marketing campaign to get you to pay higher prices for those desktop motherboards and video cards causing everyone else to have to pay higher prices for components. average joe and jane doesn't even need a desktop to accomplish his/her tasks, what makes overclockers think they are special because they can accomplish a video encode in 0.98999999 seconds faster than a stock system? some people we have to share this earh with are so gullible and cause pain for everyone else. over and out.