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Roger Pielke (right) claims NCDC removed weather station data to dodge public scrutiny.  (Source: University of Colorado)
Weather station data hidden from public; scientists allege government cover-up

The theory of global warming began to explain one simple set of factsm-- surface temperature monitoring stations have shown a roughly one degree rise over the past century.   But just where does these temperature readings come from? Most are reported by volunteer stations, usually no more than a thermometer inside a small wooden hut or below a roof overhang. In the US, 1,221 such stations exist, all administered by the National Climatic Data Center, a branch of the NOAA.

Two months ago, I reported on an effort to validate this network. A volunteer group headed by meteorologist Anthony Watts had found serious problems. Not only did sites fail to meet the NCDC's  requirements, but encroaching development had put many in ridiculously unsuitable locations -- on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills.

Soon thereafter, a Seattle radio station interviewed the head of the NCDC, Dr. Thomas Peterson, informed him of the effort and quizzed him about the problems. Three days later, the NCDC removed all website access to station site locations, citing "privacy concerns." Without this data (which had been public for years), the validation effort was blocked. No more stations could be located.

Scientists were quick to respond. Climatologist Roger Pielke from the University of Colorado called the act a "coverup" and said it was designed to prevent public scrutiny. More shockingly, he revealed that researchers had been for years pressuring the government to validate the network themselves, and that the NCDC had begun to do j so, but cancelled the project and refused to make the data public, presumably to avoid this sort of scandal.  Joined by Watts and others, Pielke called upon the government to recant.

The resulting furor forced the NCDC to again made site locations public. But so far, they've failed to address to root of the problem, which is the wholly unsatisfactory locations of many of their recording sites, loations which make the resulting data unreliable, and compromise a dataset upon which much of US energy and environmental policy is based.


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Not saying the point is moot, but...
By dubldwn on 8/7/2007 6:18:26 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
ridiculously unsuitable locations -- on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills

Well, yeah, that’s true. Those are ridiculously unsuitable locations and that should be addressed. However, the temperature really did rise 1 degree over the last 100 years. Are you disputing that?




RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By masher2 (blog) on 8/7/2007 7:59:37 PM , Rating: 5
What this means is that the "error bars" on the actual temperature change are larger than we first thought. The recorded rise isn't "one degree" exactly, but something more like "somewhere between 0.6 and 1.6 degrees". That uncertainty is the width of the error bar.

Scientists have long known that at least some portion of recorded temperature rise is due to nothing more than urban "heat islands" and other related effects. Getting a handle on problems with the NCDC dataset will allow us to better judge just how large and fast the rise is.

Do I think this means all the recorded worldwide temperature rise is wholly spurious? No, but it certainly means we have even less of an understanding than we originally thought.


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By smitty3268 on 8/7/2007 8:25:25 PM , Rating: 2
There's clearly a problem with some of these land based measurements, but I'm glad you aren't claiming that global warming is a complete fraud like a lot of people who read this article are going to. Satellite based measurements have shown an increase in temperature as well.


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By masher2 (blog) on 8/7/2007 8:45:16 PM , Rating: 3
> "Satellite based measurements have shown an increase in temperature as well."

No. From the NASA website:
quote:
Unlike the surface-based temperatures, global temperature measurements of the Earth's lower atmosphere obtained from satellites reveal no definitive warming trend over the past two decades. The slight trend that is in the data actually appears to be downward.
http://science.nasa.gov/NEWHOME/headlines/essd06oc...


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By masher2 (blog) on 8/7/2007 9:46:12 PM , Rating: 4
Here is a link to the most recent data, which shows a tropospheric warming trend of 0.057 degrees/decade, which implies a surface warming trend of ~0.046 deg/decade. That's obviously considerably smaller than what the surface stations are reporting.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2/tmtglhmam_...


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By Rovemelt on 8/8/2007 8:56:16 PM , Rating: 2
Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/302...

Satellite data seems relatively consistent with ground measurements.


By masher2 (blog) on 8/8/2007 9:04:10 PM , Rating: 1
That paper is 4 years old. Read the one I cited above for a more up-to-date view, or simply read the newer one in your own link, which cites your original:
quote:
Satellite-based measurements of decadal-scale temperature change in the lower troposphere have indicated cooling relative to Earth's surface in the tropics...We have derived a diurnal correction that, in the tropics, is of the opposite sign from that previously applied. When we use this [correction] we find tropical warming consistent with that found at the surface
In other words, once a "fudge factor" is applied, the recorded cooling trend becomes a warming trend.

The 2007 paper cited above details both this and other problems in satellite and sonde readings. Check it out; it's excellent reading.


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By smitty3268 on 8/7/2007 11:04:20 PM , Rating: 2
That's old data, which was initially hailed by anti-global warming activists and later disproven.


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By rdeegvainl on 8/8/2007 5:04:51 AM , Rating: 2
Where? not that i doubt you, but I can't accept your statement as truth without some sort of source.


By masher2 (blog) on 8/8/2007 6:45:11 AM , Rating: 2
Rather more correct to say it was "supplanted", not "disproven". It's important to remember two things about satellite measurements. First, they cover only a very short time period (26 years and counting) which means a couple warm or cold years can skew the results dramatically. Second and more importantly, satellites do not measure temperature directly. They measure wavelengths, from which we apply a modelling process to infer temperature.

So, the most recent data includes the warm years of 1998-2005, and also a new temperature model which-- applied to the older readings-- and viola! Suddenly a small cooling trend becomes a small warming trend. There have been suggestions that the new modelling is at least partially motivated by a desire to "fit" the satellite readings so they reconcile with ground-based reports, but that's neither here nor there.

What is important is that the new modelling still has serious flaws. The latest paper from Christy, et. al (published just a few months ago) highlights some of these. First, there are still major discrepancies between satellite and ground-based readings. Simple physics says the troposhere (lower atmosphere) in the tropics should warm much faster than the ground. But its not...its warming slower, possibly much slower. Are the satellite readings wrong, or are the ground stations?

Secondly, the error bars on the data are larger than the actual shift...meaning that, even with the new model, the data *might* still show cooling, not warming. Third, the nighttime warming is substantially larger than the daytime, meaning the model is probably not accurately reflecting real-temperatures, at least in some cases. Fourthly, there exist some large discontinuities in the readings, which just happen to show up when past adjustments were applied, suggesting those adjustments had substantial error themselves.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2005JD006881...

In summary, if anyone is suggesting that the satellite readings "prove" the ground-based readings are correct, they are quite mistaken.


RE: Not saying the point is moot, but...
By Rovemelt on 8/8/2007 8:45:18 PM , Rating: 1
Wrong.

That Nasa webpage is almost 10 years old now.

Here's a link to the more recent GISS surface temp data:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

When the satellite data was corrected for loss of orbital altitude, it showed a slight warming trend in the troposphere. This was published after the NASA report showing a slight cooling trend.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1200/is_n7_...


By masher2 (blog) on 8/8/2007 9:08:48 PM , Rating: 2
> "This was published after the NASA report showing a slight cooling trend."

That link is from a 1998 Christy research paper. I've cited his most recent paper above, which details several lingering problems in the satellite readings.


By marvdmartian on 8/9/2007 10:52:22 AM , Rating: 2
Global warming is a complete fraud!! I have, using various methods, determined the real reason why we're noticing a warming trend on earth:

http://www.fortunecity.com/tattooine/bester/250/im...

Yes, it's true! Illudium-235 explosive space modulators!! ;)


By DiscussGlobalWarming on 8/12/2007 1:19:04 PM , Rating: 2
Yes. I am and many other dispute that. You can no longer just sit there and say "the temperature DID rise 1 degree" because as the article states - the data is FLAWED. Period. Now, are you disputing THAT?


Yes, but is it really that surprising?
By Master Kenobi (blog) on 8/7/2007 1:44:44 PM , Rating: 3
When you want to make a point, skewing results in a specific direction always make it more believable.




By jskirwin on 8/7/2007 2:23:21 PM , Rating: 2
True, but that only works when you hide your methodology - which is what the NCDC tried to do by taking the locations offline.

Once again it's not the crime that gets you, it's the coverup. By pulling their data collection methodology they are tacitly admitting they screwed up and their data may in fact be worthless. I suppose it's easier to try to win the coverup than to admit that your data may be skewed and therefore your arguments flawed - but that's a political decision, not a scientific one.


By porkpie on 8/7/2007 2:45:51 PM , Rating: 2
A government agency fudge things to protect itself and justify its existence? I can't believe it!

/sarcasm off


RE: Yes, but is it really that surprising?
By arazok on 8/7/2007 3:00:56 PM , Rating: 2
At this point, global warming is a blindly accepted truth in the public eye, and it's now driven by political agendas. Sadly, no amount of evidence showing everybody might be wrong matters.

"People will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it."


By Ringold on 8/7/2007 3:57:57 PM , Rating: 2
I think all we can do now is try to invest a little savings in the market with firms we think will profit from the paranoia. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

And now that George Bush is starting to sing the Global Warming gospel, with a lot of Republican's with business interests in biofuels and whatnot, "them" suddenly refers to the entire political class. Making money in the ag sector hand over fist helps one sleep better at night regardless of what climate science is saying. ;)