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Researchers at the NOAA make a positive observation about the global ocean temperature going up

While opposing factions wage war over global warming and what calamities it might bring upon the earth, research by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on ocean temperature and land-falling hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean seems to indicate that a globally warmer ocean may actually produce fewer killer storms.

In an article published in Geophysical Research Letters, physical oceanographer and climate scientist Chunzai Wang of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory explains that the effects of a warmer tropical oceans region have reduced the number of storms reaching the U.S. mainland.

"Using data extending back to the middle nineteenth century," Wang writes, "we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. land-falling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up. This trend coincides with an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, which could result in fewer U.S. land-falling hurricanes." He goes on to say "the vertical wind shear is not the only factor affecting Atlantic hurricane activity, although it is an important one."

While warming in the North Atlantic Ocean decreases the vertical wind shear in the main Atlantic hurricane development region which lies between the 10th and 20th degree latitudes between Central America and Africa, warming in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans increase it. The impact from the warming of the Pacific and Indian regions overshadow the North Atlantic's, producing a greater wind shear effect in the tropical Atlantic over all. The higher level of wind shear helps to suppress storm formation and reduces the number of hurricanes that trundle into U.S. soil.

Wang's team's observations were made on data collected on sea surface temperatures from 1854 to 2006 and show an almost global warming trend.

Though future global warming may increase Atlantic hurricane activity, overall storm production will likely be effected strongly by the sustained long-term warming of the global oceans. While, as Wang states earlier, wind shear is an important factor in storm formation, other components such as sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure and atmospheric humidity also play a role.

These may all change in ways unknown if a warming climate trend continues globally.


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Yes, but ...
By Hawkido on 1/25/2008 2:09:33 PM , Rating: 3
Just wait for the AL Gore-gonuts to come out with a horrible enviromental catastrophy afflicting the areas affected because there are no killer storms that wash thousands of human corpses out into the ocean for the Spotty Sea Much Fish to feed on.

"We must cool the ocean, so the storms may rage and sacrifice our bretheren to the Spotty Sea Much Fish Gods from whence we came!!! Now let us bow our heads and pray to Al Gore... At this time you can place your required donations in the tray being passed around to support the good work the church of enviromentalism is perpetuating on the world. Don't forget to buy your Carbon Credits at the gift shop on the way out."




RE: Yes, but ...
By masher2 (blog) on 1/25/2008 2:20:01 PM , Rating: 5
> "We must cool the ocean, so the storms may rage ..."

They're already preparing for that eventuality, with articles demonstrating that hurricanes are necessary for "coastal accretion":

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/major-storms/index.html

If it could be shown that human activity is decreasing hurricane counts, you can expect to see protests as a result.


RE: Yes, but ...
By i4mt3hwin on 1/25/2008 3:09:02 PM , Rating: 5
I remember reading someplace about forest fires and this type of thing. Basically humans try to prevent forest fires or put them out whether they are naturally caused or intentionally. But, if these smaller fires were to happen more frequently the ground brush would be cleared and less "huge" fires would occur, like the ones we see in California and stuff.

Seems to me like nature knows best, if we do effect the environment that greatly nature will have a way to counteract it.

These people seem to think natures always been one way, but there is plenty of proof that isn't true, so why try to keep it one way?


RE: Yes, but ...
By Hawkido on 1/25/2008 4:27:28 PM , Rating: 2
If you know many foreesters they will tell you the same...

Most forresters feel that wild fires are natures way of clearing the "Deadfall" off in increments. if 20 years of deadfall were to burn off at once the forrest would not survive. But if the deadfall burnt every 7 years there would not be enough accumulation to harm the trunks or roots of the trees. Plus the fires scourge the insects and fungi that prey on the trees of the forest. Kinda like the forrest's natural disinfectant.


RE: Yes, but ...
By Screwballl on 1/28/2008 12:14:00 PM , Rating: 3
This is exactly how it is.
A perfect example is in the Black Hills of South Dakota. The econuts got the forest service to stop clearing dead brush and using these small controlled burned to clear stuff out. The past few years saw several huge fires that caused massive amounts of damage to the area and threat to life because of the extra amount of dead matter sitting around. The forest service has since restarted its brush clearing program to hopefully reduce the large fires and keep them contained much quicker and easier. the problem is it will take them at least a decade just to catch up and get things thinned and cleared out to pre-econut levels.


RE: Yes, but ...
By Polynikes on 2/6/2008 1:36:57 PM , Rating: 2
All the rich hippies in Beverly Hills don't want their houses burned down, so we fight fires.


RE: Yes, but ...
By twnorows on 1/28/2008 11:41:13 AM , Rating: 2
Why pay for carbon credits when you can get them for FREE at:

http://www.tw-profitzone.com/free/


How many ways can you skin a cat?
By eye smite on 1/30/2008 7:26:40 PM , Rating: 3
I'm sorry, but the duality of dailytech and scientists seems consistent. DT publishes this article supporting global warming yet on Jan 3rd they published an article on natural cause for polar caps ice shift, not global warming. It states in that article as the north pole decreases in ice, and equal amount of ice is gained at the south pole. So, do scientists really know what's going on? Answer is simple, NO. They cook up half brained theories but need to do more research and of course need research grants and donations and funding and.........you get the point? Show me an honest on the level scientist, I'll show you an honest on the level Lawyer. Nuff said.




By MadMaster on 2/1/2008 1:40:22 AM , Rating: 2
Those are misquotes. The article about the natural causes of the ice caps is a little biased. Yes it was a natural cause, BUT the reason it was so severe was because of global warming. Arctic sea ice has thinned over the last 50 years...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007...

In other words, this is NOT a natural event.

Antarctica is not gaining ice. Recently the larson B ice shelf broke up (thousands of years old) and there is evidence of other melting... non of which is natural.

West antarctic ice shelf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sh...

Larson Ice shelf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

Antartica...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...


Not surprising
By masher2 (blog) on 1/25/2008 1:22:01 PM , Rating: 2
This corresponds with research I reported on last year. A warmer planet means less severe weather, not more:

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=8253




RE: Not surprising
By MatthiasF on 1/25/2008 1:36:05 PM , Rating: 2
dont the storms start in africa?
By kattanna on 1/28/2008 11:34:34 AM , Rating: 2
i seem to recall watching a documentary that showed hurricanes actually started by winds coming off the african continent, and then building up strength over the ocean to turn into full blown hurricanes.

has anyone tracked the weather activity over africa to monitor this?

or am i way off base in my recollections?




By MadMaster on 1/30/2008 1:42:33 AM , Rating: 2
It's more complex. The wind doesn't have to come off of Africa, as in the 2007 hurricane season, Hurricane Humberto formed in the Gulf just miles before hitting the Texas coast.

Hurricanes have two major affects (others do exist, but with global warming we're only worried about two) the shear winds which were described in this article and sea surface temperature. Specifically, if the Sea Surface Temperature below a hurricane is above 26.5 degrees C hurricanes grow and below 26.5 degrees C hurricanes decrease in size.

Shear wind is modeled to decrease the forming of hurricanes. However, ocean temperatures are on the rise (global warming) and the warmer temperatures will feed hurricanes more.

The future of hurricanes is up in the air. A good prediction is fewer hurricanes but when they do form they will be stronger. Also, there will certainly be more severe storms. It's also possible they will hit regions that have never seen hurricanes (the recent hurricane in the south Atlantic...first one to form there on record).


Excelsior!
By mmntech on 1/25/2008 5:21:46 PM , Rating: 3
Proof that they really have no idea what's going on. We really don't know enough about global climate to really release definitive answers on the subject. Unfortunately, hard science is taking a backseat to money.




But But But...
By iFX on 1/27/2008 9:31:24 AM , Rating: 2
What happened to all that malarkey from 2005 that we were in for disastrous storms in 2006 and 2007 because of the alleged warmer ocean water? Oh.. but look, nothing happened after all.

This is the biggest flip-flop of the decade.




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