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"I grow tired of asking"...

Over two weeks ago, Microsoft issued Yahoo's board an ultimatum -- join or risk losing their jobs.  Many assumed Microsoft was just blowing hot air and playing at empty theatrics, but as the deadline arrives this weekend, Microsoft reaffirmed that if a compromise is not met over the weekend, it will take drastic measures.

Among the possibilities, Microsoft said it might go fully hostile, and attempt to oust the board, appealing to shareholders.  This follows remarks made by Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer on Thursday.  The other option says Microsoft, is to lower the offer or even withdraw it altogether which is a steep departure from previous comments that indicated that Microsoft would keep trying to acquire the company to the bitter end, no matter what the cost.

Commenting on the state of the offer was Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell, who offered insight to Microsoft's plans on a conference call Thursday.  Said Liddell, "Speed is of the essence for the deal to make sense.  Unfortunately, the transaction has been anything but speedy and has been characterized by what would appear to be unrealistic expectations of value."

Liddell alludes to Yahoo's multiple suggestions that its company is worth far more than its battered stock price suggests.  Yahoo's leadership has tried to frustrate the merger process, citing that, in their opinion, it was not advantageous to the company in its current state.  Liddell says Yahoo is suffering from delusions of grandeur.  Liddell continued, "We have yet to see tangible evidence that our bid substantially undervalues the company.  In fact, we see the opposite."

Next week, if a deal is not reached, Microsoft will unveil its new battle plan according to Liddell.  He stated, "As outlined in our recent letter to the Yahoo board, unless we made progress with Yahoo towards an agreement by this weekend, we will reconsider our alternatives.  These alternatives clearly include taking an offer to Yahoo shareholders or to withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunities."

Such "other opportunities" could involve internal growth or other acquisitions, according to Liddell.  Microsoft has had relatively little success in growing market share in the search engine and online advertising industry, so such efforts would likely be perceived with a bit of skepticism in the business community.

Yahoo did post strong first-quarter results, beating expectations, but Ballmer and Liddell both voiced that overall the picture for Yahoo is no better, and may actually be getting worse.  William Blair analyst Troy Mastin thinks that the pair is headed for a proxy battle.  Said Blair, "A proxy battle seems increasingly likely; it sounds (like) Yahoo's got a price in mind somewhere north of $35 and Microsoft has a price in mind somewhere south of $35."

Blair warned that walking away could be a bad mistake for Yahoo, as it has done little to reverse its long term slide.  "In a sense Yahoo, by playing hardball, is really playing with fire because they have limited alternatives," opinioned Blair.

Thursday was filled with rough news for Microsoft, when it reported weak Windows sales for its fiscal third quarter ending in March.  This comes as the company struggles with how to phase out XP, its only acceptable current solution for low-end PCs.  Liddell intended to focus his conference call mostly on these results, but turned heavily to the Yahoo topic, when he noted how many callers were checking in.  He stated that there was likely twice as many callers as normal do to curiosity about the state of the Yahoo deal.

Microsoft's stock still remains about a dollar below its level during the original value, devaluing its original offer slightly, but not as much as during some points in the last month.  Yahoo's stock has been taking a beating on the market over speculation that Microsoft may drop its offer.



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Translation:
By i3arracuda on 4/25/2008 10:50:10 AM , Rating: 4
You can either profit by this, or be destroyed. It's your choice, but I warn you not to underestimate my power.




RE: Translation:
By Polynikes on 4/25/08, Rating: 0
RE: Translation:
By Spivonious on 4/25/2008 11:21:13 AM , Rating: 5
I am Hugh.


RE: Translation:
By therealnickdanger on 4/25/2008 11:12:03 AM , Rating: 4
Your mind powers will not work on me, boy!


RE: Translation:
By eye smite on 4/25/2008 11:20:01 PM , Rating: 3
You underestimate the power...of the darkside. If you will not be turned, you will be destoyed.


RE: Translation:
By nosfe on 4/25/2008 12:19:48 PM , Rating: 4
my kung fu is better than yours


RE: Translation:
By Omega215D on 4/26/2008 10:58:03 PM , Rating: 5
Yang: I know kung fu.

Ballmer (holding his chin): show me.


Doesn't matter to MS
By Aberforth on 4/25/08, Rating: 0
RE: Doesn't matter to MS
By Hexus on 4/25/2008 11:47:38 AM , Rating: 2
I think Google is about as non-deceptive as it gets. They don't hide sponsored links in your search results. They make it quite obvious what is what, and what search result they were payed for.


RE: Doesn't matter to MS
By Aberforth on 4/25/2008 11:52:42 AM , Rating: 2
I meant "Quality of information" displayed in search, ad and other managed services.


RE: Doesn't matter to MS
By Hexus on 4/25/2008 12:17:38 PM , Rating: 2
Ah, in that case, you're more correct.


RE: Doesn't matter to MS
By kmmatney on 4/26/2008 2:02:07 AM , Rating: 2
I have to admit I've been using Microsoft's search engine more and more lately. In many cases, it has worked better for me than Google - it's improved a lot in the last year.


Jerry Yang's valuation of Yahoo is nice
By spluurfg on 4/25/2008 11:59:01 AM , Rating: 5
...but it's totally unrealistic.

quote:
Liddell alludes to Yahoo's multiple suggestions that its company is worth far more than its battered stock price suggests.


Yahoo's share price is 57 times earnings per share. Google is at 32 times. Boeing's is 14.

Google's earnings growth rate is 30%. Yahoo's is 9%. Boeing's is 10%.

So basically, Yahoo's valuation is four times higher than a company that is significantly larger and has similar earnings growth. Its valuation is also twice as high than a company with triple its earnings growth. See where I'm giong here? Yahoo's earnings beat expectations, yet the share didn't move -- the share price is completely a function of the expectation of an MS takeover. If the prospect of a buyout by MS vanished, the share price would surely plummet.

Microsoft is already offering an insane premium -- any shareholder that doesn't expect 60% earning's growth should sensibly accept it.




By TomZ on 4/25/2008 12:14:38 PM , Rating: 2
I agree totally - but I would also add that in the case of Yahoo, their Board and Management have also proved they don't really have any creative ideas about how to grow moving forward, when compared to their peers like Google.

If Microsoft walks away, Yahoo loses 25% of its market cap. right away and a 50% of its market cap. in one year, I would predict.


It will be interesting...
By BigToque on 4/25/2008 11:54:13 AM , Rating: 2
If MS attempts a hostile takeover, don't they still need to convince 51% of the shareholders to agree to sell their shares? (well 50% + 1 share)

If the takeover bid decreases signigicantly from the current offer, what incentive do the individual shareholders really have to sell?




RE: It will be interesting...
By lightfoot on 4/25/2008 12:08:42 PM , Rating: 2
They don't need to buy half the shares, they just need to convince half the shareholders to agree to the merger. If they buy about 30% of the shares at market value (about 60% of the offered buyout value per share) then convince a third of the remaining share holders to take the offer. It really shouldn't be too hard.

Microsoft's real problem would be a poison pill strategy which would further hurt the value of all Yahoo stock.


RE: It will be interesting...
By Omega215D on 4/26/2008 10:58:49 PM , Rating: 2
Because the suit case may contain a high amount.

Deal or No Deal?


give it up
By omnicronx on 4/25/2008 1:00:03 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Liddell alludes to Yahoo's multiple suggestions that its company is worth far more than its battered stock price suggests
Sorry Yahoo, even if you stock is worth more, MS offered close to a 40% premium, you are kidding yourself if you think your stock is undervalued by more than 40%. If anything its the exact opposite, as this has been the trend for every other search engine company, I really don't see why yahoo thinks they are in a different boat.




RE: give it up
By Haltech on 4/25/2008 6:30:59 PM , Rating: 2
What the Yahoo CEO thinks is that Microsoft's price they want to buy the company at is lower then what their peak was back in Mid 07. The problem is that Yahoo will never reach their peak due to Google and the economy therefore must merge to have a chance.


Poor rebels...
By Polynikes on 4/25/2008 10:50:55 AM , Rating: 2
Where's Luke Skywalker when you need him?




RE: Poor rebels...
By just4U on 4/25/2008 8:49:52 PM , Rating: 2
He's busy at google fighting the <cough> good fight.. as it were.

Seriously tho, there is no bad guy in this just some stubborn misguided executives I think.