I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
……Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back….
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
quote: True religon is based on faith and revelation.
quote: To wit, there are multiple religions that are variously quite similar or wildly different. Each of them espouses the view that they are the "one true" religion. Each of them espouses that other religions/gods/etc. are false.The only way this can happen is when you have belief systems based on irrationality - meaning, the beliefs have not be rationalized against reality.The very fact that multiple religions exist is fundamental proof that to be religious is to be irrational.
quote: a lot of the scientific method was derived by men of faith.
quote: science can not disprove faith once the limit of accurate data is reached.
quote: I have no qualms attacking those who allow their beliefs to harm other people.
quote: It always amazes me how these discussions so quickly devolve into a heated argument with each side accusing the other of exactly what they are doing themselves. Those who rant and scream that the people of faith are idiots and irrational for their beliefs can no more prove for facts their own beliefs and vice versa.
quote: There is, in fact, no other "way of knowing" than the scientific method, which involves formulating a theory, gathering verifiable data, testing the theory against the evidence that has been gathered to see if it can be disproved, and if not moving it forward for peer review... after which you are actually pretty sure about something .
quote: What existed before the universe is something so far everyone has to guess. Those that say God made it and those that can only take it back scientifically to the Don't Know point both have equally valid answers beyond the point of absolute knowledge of the event.
quote: Science has nothing to say beyond the point of "Don't Know."
quote: but I would not want to try to back up my beliefs with known false data.
quote: Religion is tax exempt
quote: It's the university of east anglia - hardly a bright light in the academic world.
quote: Hopefully this will teach some of the people there that it's simply unprofessional to write some things in electronic missives.
quote: Still, I'm not surprised at a story like this appearing on DailyTech in the same week that six degree temperature rises were predicted by the end of this century.
quote: The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.
quote: since the need (NEED) to be green diminishes somewhat,
quote: As for carbon emissions - do those same parties have any means of preventing the massive annual forest fires in Africa?
quote: I am one who believes that AGW is happening because the body of evidence is quite compelling.
quote: Most arguments against it are like yours, where you just don't know enough about science.
quote: Obviously most intelligent people understand that man isn't causing any global warming.
quote: It is a matter of fossil record that mass extinctions have occurred, and also a matter of record that climate change has occurred. It is hardly a stretch to suggest that the former could be a result of the latter.
quote: There is, after all, no real option to say 'We don't understand it enough, so we do nothing.' - as that actually translates to 'continue what we've been doing', and we do at least have reasons to be question whether that is wise.
quote: Smog, for example, has clearly demonstrated then human behavior can have a marked effect on the environment on a local scale. Is the concept that it may have an effect on a global scale so farfetched we can simply ignore it?
quote: If the possible consequences are dire and our information is incomplete, is it not wise to err on the side of caution?
quote: As for claims of profiteering.....well, I'm sure we all know there is plenty of profiteering going on in both camps.
quote: WTF is a carbon credit exactly?
quote: A plot of various of the most reliable (in terms of strength of temperature signal and reliability of millennial-scale variability) regional proxy temperature reconstructions around the Northern Hemisphere that are available over the past 1-2 thousand years to convey the important point that warm and cold periods where highly regionally variable. ......Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back [Phil and I have one in review--not sure it is kosher to show that yet though--I've put in an inquiry to Judy Jacobs at AGU about this].
quote: to argue that the observed global mean temperature anomalies of the past decade falsifies the model projections of global mean temperature change, as contrarians have been fond of claiming, is clearly wrong. but that doesn't mean we can explain exactly what's going on. there is always the danger of falling a bit into the "we don't know everything, so we know nothing" fallacy.
quote: As it is standard procedure in all of science to use “tricks” to “hide” misleading data trends that would otherwise obscure your results...
quote: Dear Snap, Crackle and Pop,Once Tim's got an image here we'll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.I've just completed Mike's astro trick of using SExtractor to catalog the image objects in each data set for the last 20 exposures (ie from Dec onwards) amd from Oct for Keith’s to hide local stars. Mike’s sets got the galactic eccentricity values while the others helped correct atmospheric seeing. The latter two are for Nov, while the image catalog for Oct is combined with Dec. The estimate for Dec with data through Jan nets an area average e=0.73.Thanks for the comments, Snap.
quote: It's not a trick if they're telling you HOW they process their data.
quote: I'm not sure that you fully understand what's being discussed.
quote: Beyond being a crude caricature of a typical weak gravitational lensing email, the above is both completely typical and not suspect in any way.
quote: The same goes for the substantively identical “Temp Tricks” email
quote: This makes no sense at all. Apparently it needs repeating that a "trick" is nothing more than a "clever technique"*
quote: For instance when setting up graphs, they can choose intervals that show what looks like significant changes occurring but may not be significant at all.
quote: There are several excellent discussion on this outside of dailytech http://politics.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=14519...
quote: The University of East Anglia described the center, writing, "Widely recognised as one of the world's leading institutions concerned with the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change."
quote: Let us know when there's a problem with a peer-reviewed article in a journal. There's total transparency there
quote: Just as Monothestic religion moved from being an upstart "freedom" movement to a device to control people, it appears science is headed the same way. Instead of empowering people to live better lives, Science is being used to control and decieve people.
quote: Let us know when there's a problem with a peer-reviewed article in a journal. There's total transparency there.
quote: There's almost no way to catch falsified data in the peer-review process.
quote: According to a bunch of emails tat were 'Stolen' by 'Hackers'' who almost certainly would not have manipulated them to support their political beliefs because obviously they are fine upstanding citizens.
quote: Very relevant considering they only published the excerpts that would look most damning.
quote: You have information stolen for political gain Published for political gain
quote: No certainty that the information was not modified to enhance a political position.