DailyTech - LCD TV Market to Return to Growth in 2010

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Gadgets LCD TV Market to Return to Growth in 2010
Shane McGlaun (Blog) - December 31, 2009 12:35 PM

20 comment(s) - last by KoolAidMan1.. on Jan 19 at 1:06 AM

Demand will be pushed by new technologies like 3D

The poor global economy hit the electronics industry hard. LCD TV makers were hard hit right along with computer makers and other companies. The economy is slowly starting to come back though and DisplaySearch has released its LCD TV numbers for Q3 2009.

DisplaySearch reports that total TV shipments for the quarter were up on a Y/Y basis for the first time in 12 months. Based on the information the research firm predicts that TV revenues will climb Y/Y for the first time in six quarters in Q1 2010. Total shipments of TVs in 2010 are expected to grow to 218 million units compared to the 205 million predicted to ship in 2009. The 2009 total is a 1% decline in shipments overall. Keys to the growth are market demand in North America, Japan, and Western Europe. Demand is also accelerating in emerging markets as well.

“China is a hot growth engine for the global flat panel TV market as the transition from CRT to LCD and plasma TVs continues to drive market growth,” observed Hisakazu Torii, VP of TV Market Research for DisplaySearch. “Government stimulus activity is having a positive effect on demand for flat panel TVs in both China and Japan, while several upcoming analog-to-digital broadcast changes in 2010 are likely to increase demand in Western Europe for digital TVs. Meanwhile, large price declines in North America have been driving strong unit demand, especially for 19” to 32” sizes.”

DisplaySearch predicts that global average selling prices for all TV technologies will fall 9% for 2009. Forecasts for 2010 have CRT TV shipments declining to 32 million units while plasma TVs are expected to increase to 14.6 million units. The overall 2009 LCD TV forecast is now 140.5 million units, in part due to surging demand in China.

Growth in the LCD TV segment next year is expected to be spurred by new technologies like LED backlighting and 3D. Satellite TV provider DirecTV has launched a new satellite and one of the channels the new satellite broadcasts will be an all 3D channel. As new 3D content is available in America, more consumers will look to move to 3D capable TVs in 2010.

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Economy or Price Fixing?

By Mitch101 on 12/31/2009 12:53:34 PM , Rating: 4

I'm sure the economy had an effect but a portion I have to believe was that the prices just weren't coming down. I dont have any recorded trends or data to back my claims just noticing LCD's I would like for my PC and Bedroom were just more than I wanted to pay for them but are now approaching prices that I might spring for. And since AT&T and a few other companies started talking about suing LCD manufacturers for price fixing the prices have magically started dropping and fast. Because of this instance I dont buy the supply/demand/economy excuse I believe there was some price fixing going on but that's coming to an end.

Im sure they also want to move some LCD's before the Super Bowl which is when the majority of TV sales occur just prior.

RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By Nfarce on 12/31/2009 1:16:02 PM , Rating: 3

quote:
I'm sure the economy had an effect but a portion I have to believe was that the prices just weren't coming down. I dont have any recorded trends or data to back my claims

I do - even kept a spreadsheet. I watched prices all 2008-2009 on 40-46" 1080p LCDs before pulling the trigger this past October on a 47" LG. Here's just an example:

11/2008 - Samsung LN46A650: Amazon $1,649.99
12/2009 - Samsung LN46B650: Amazon $1,309.99
(20% price drop in 1 year)

04/2009 - LG 47LH50: Amazon $1,406.99
10/2009 - LG 47LH50: Amazon $1,197.99
(15% price drop in 1/2 year)

I snapped up the above LG at Fry's at a fire sale in October for $899 - glad I did.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By mdogs444 on 12/31/2009 1:39:58 PM , Rating: 1

quote:
I do - even kept a spreadsheet.

Nice way of keeping track of prices for something you want to buy. But I do have to ask....too much free time? :)

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By Spuke on 12/31/2009 1:56:19 PM , Rating: 2

quote:
I do - even kept a spreadsheet.

Damn!!! Now that's a great idea!!

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By zzeoss on 1/4/2010 6:06:36 AM , Rating: 2

you can use his spreadsheet for US prices, meanwhile i use this site for EU prices:

http://prixmateriel.com/

/joking

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By RMSistight on 12/31/2009 2:30:47 PM , Rating: 3

Hey, now this is a consumer I can give props to. He did the research he needed for someone he wanted to buy and jumped at the opportunity when he found a good deal.

A little research and patience goes a LONG way.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By sinful on 12/31/2009 2:29:25 PM , Rating: 1

Yeah but now LED TV's are out; it's not surprising that the LCD prices are going down now.

The real question is if LED prices are falling now...

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By bupkus on 12/31/2009 3:01:14 PM , Rating: 2

Whether LED or CCFL we're still talking LCD. The light sources used as backlighting are the only change and although LEDs offer a definite life-of-service advantage it remains questionable whether they provide a superior viewing experience.
When talking to non-techical friends I try offering a stained glass analogy. Stained glass generates no light of its own but requires an external light source to illuminate its brilliance. LCD panels are in that respect the same.
I'm hoping for oLED as the holy grail of contrast satisfaction amongst other eye candy characteristics. Now there are those few talking about 3D. Like I need to see Deadwood in 3D. :p

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By rburnham on 1/1/2010 1:59:26 AM , Rating: 2

I am still not fully convinced on the LED tvs. Not enough benefit to justify the often huge price increase over standard LCDs. Besides, my 40" LCD from Samsung still looks super.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By Yongsta on 1/1/2010 4:09:35 PM , Rating: 2

I see a pretty big difference between my Samsung LED Backlit 240hz TV vs my older traditional Samsung LCD. However if you really want to see a big difference you would have to look at an OLED TV.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By zzeoss on 1/4/2010 6:17:06 AM , Rating: 2

i agree with both of you, LED is crap. (240hz is seometing else, be it led or ccfl. and you can always go for plasma)

and to sinful, and completing on:

quote:

Meanwhile, large price declines in North America have been driving strong unit demand, especially for 19” to 32” sizes.”

LCDs are so 2005. We were supposed to have SED by now (from canon/toshiba). Or even FED (from sony). But no, what we need is crapp quality 19-32" TN panels, wich btw is the reason prices have dropped (VA/IPS panels are rare in this size segment)

SED like technologies IS THE FUTURE (for TVs and even monitor), NOT LED LCD or OLED.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By yourwhiteshadow on 12/31/2009 3:01:23 PM , Rating: 2

the real question is whether you (and other people realize the difference between LED and LCD tvs). its just the backlighting that's the difference, nothing else. though the backlighting can sometimes make a significant difference.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By ElFenix on 12/31/2009 8:22:48 PM , Rating: 2

people not understanding that 'LED' TVs aren't using LEDs for the pixels led the UK to slap samsung and it's 'LED TV' advertising. i kinda wish the US would do the same.

tbh i'd rather have a cheap plasma over the most expensive LED LCDs. the 240Hz LCDs look unnatural to me, like everything is computer generated.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By bobny1 on 1/1/2010 5:37:36 PM , Rating: 2

The real story next year is 3D and OLED. Now that they big boys in the game can no longer play the game of fixing prices as a weapon to keep the already old LCD market and LED skim as an excuse to rip consumers off. The doors are wide open for them to move on to the next chapter, wich is standarize LED and 3DHD and mass production of OLED. I hope they don't find a way of manipulating production and distribution of OLED technology. Otherwise, the technology could take decades to be adopted.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By KoolAidMan1 on 1/2/2010 4:53:01 PM , Rating: 1

A cheap plasma will blow away an LCD that costs three times as much. The additional technology built into those 240hz LED LCDs are just lipstick on a pig, an attempt to fix inherent issues that plasmas don't have to begin with, and those LCDs still don't measure up.

Waste of money, something as affordable as a Panasonic G10 will beat any LCD. Go up to a Kuro (if you can still find them) and we're talking about the best consumer picture quality on the market.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By inperfectdarkness on 1/4/2010 2:44:01 PM , Rating: 2

size, longevity & heat say you're wrong.

LED/LCD may not be "the future" but it is the best widely available at a price most consumers can afford. i'm much more comfortable with a 60" LED/LCD than a 60" plasma when it comes to portability (relative, of course).

any display advantages plasma had before have been erased by the LED backlighting; allowing for true blacks.

OLED, SED, etc. may eventually become competitive. for now--the price/performance/longevity are heavily in favor of LED/LCD. expect to see prices fall 50% on these models over the next few years & expect to see CCFL LCD's disappear from all but the shoddiest of stores.

as a mature technology LED/LCD will be just too cheap to pass up--both in exterior materials, electronics, and energy efficiency.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By KoolAidMan1 on 1/19/2010 1:06:35 AM , Rating: 2

LED backlighting is lipstick on a pig. I have yet to see any that look as good as a good plasma does. Black, color accuracy, motion, all are still not as good as something like a G or V series Panasonic or a Kuro. Portability, energy consumption, and weight are the only advantages LCD has, and none of those factor into my buying decisions, just image quality, something even the best LCDs lose on by a significant margin.

LCDs don't even have a price advantage these days, considering that a top end LED backlit LCD will both be more expensive with inferior quality compared to a mid-level Panasonic plasma.

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RE: Economy or Price Fixing?

By Strunf on 1/1/2010 11:22:07 AM , Rating: 2

I use a website that does price comparison and keeps a chart with the price for every product during a year long, I've never bought anything electronic without checking it first.

It's with Swiss prices but you can clearly see the trend
http://www.toppreise.ch/chart_164096.html

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Let's hope plasma gets a rebound too

By KoolAidMan1 on 1/1/2010 6:12:25 PM , Rating: 2

If there's a real recovery I hope its in terms of plasma TV sales. LCDs look horrible in comparison, and every new feature introduced to them is an attempt to band-aid inherent issues with the technology (black level, color accuracy, narrow viewing angles, movement artifacts) that simply do not exist with plasmas.

Superior marketing and consumer ignorance (ie - the myth that plasmas still have burn-in issues) are why LCDs continue to sell better than plasma, even though you can now get a far superior plasma by Panasonic for as much as or cheaper than an LCD.