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New chips promise incredible lifetime at low voltage

Long-standing concerns regarding flash memory are failure rates and short lifetimes.  While the SSD market is booming thanks to lower prices and strong marketing, many remain skeptical.  Among these skeptics are some major industry players such as Seagate and Fujitsu, who both believe that the technology, while promising, is not market ready.

A new breakthrough from Japan may soon change that.  Japanese scientists from the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology and the University of Tokyo have developed memory chips that could withstand hundreds of years of use.  They also work at lower voltages than tradition chips, promising power savings.

Most flash chips, such as those used in the memory cards for digital cameras or the Nintendo Wii, only have an estimated lifetime of about a decade.  Even worse, some applications which require frequent reading and writing can wear down cells much faster, sometimes ruining a flash device within only a few years.

For computers, some common scenarios that can wear down SSDs prematurely include the use of a swap file or virtual memory or frequent writes to log files.  Scientists estimate that high density flash circuits in their current state, for lifetime and other reasons are unworkable below 20 nm.  With Intel already starting to prepare for 32 nm production, this limit is fast approaching.

The Japanese scientists state that their new ferroelectric NAND flash cells can scale much smaller, to a scant 10 nm.  The scientists claim that the new cells can be rewritten 100 million times, as opposed to current flash, which can only support about 10,000 writes.

To further prolong the cell life, they employ a wear-leveling technology, in which all cells are used equally, and overused cells are "retired".  The end result is lifetimes of 100+ years.  Additionally, the new ferroelectric cells operate at 6 volts or less.  Current flash cells use 20 V, meaning that the new cells will likely cut power consumption by as much as a factor of 3.

The researchers hope to bring the technology to market within a couple years.



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I expect a follow up...
By Indianapolis on 7/16/2008 12:36:47 PM , Rating: 5
I expect a follow up article from DailyTech in 2108, either verifying or discrediting the 100 year claim.




RE: I expect a follow up...
By callmeroy on 7/16/2008 12:39:48 PM , Rating: 1
LOL my thought exactly...

How do we KNOW did someone travel into the future 100 years? LOL


RE: I expect a follow up...
By menting on 7/16/2008 1:42:56 PM , Rating: 5
using modeling based on current transistors and accelerated operating conditions you can estimate how long it'll last. Of course, it's only as accurate as your models, but they're pretty close right now, and improving every day.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By Indianapolis on 7/16/08, Rating: -1
RE: I expect a follow up...
By JonnyDough on 7/16/2008 6:20:00 PM , Rating: 2
If they can give me a double lifetime warranty I'll believe them. Of course, if the company is around in 100 years (when I'm a young 138) then I'll be surprised. Naturally, I will live that long because I want to and nothing will stand in my way. Except maybe death, but I've overcome bigger obstacles.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By Clauzii on 7/17/2008 12:10:21 AM , Rating: 2
ROFL :)

Yeah, death ain't the worst. Loss of data, on the other hand...


RE: I expect a follow up...
By ViroMan on 7/17/2008 3:41:54 AM , Rating: 2
There are worse things then death. Take the loss of using anything lower then your belly due to a spinal cord injury for example. Currently that is pretty Fing hard to deal with.(Except in 5 years we might solve that one.) Going blind is some scary sh1t too(We also have a partial cure for that atm). Your child dieing before you do, is heart breaking(Altho we can make much better clones now then we could in the past).

hmm I guess loosing your data really is the worst thing that can happen to you.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By JonnyDough on 7/18/2008 5:31:02 AM , Rating: 2
There is one worse thing than death and losing your data.

That would be not obtaining a solid foundation in basic education in which you learn how to spell words in a language correctly.

How would you like it if you spoke Spanish and I wrote:

"Como mi stahs?" Sounds a bit like, well, you know.

Or maybe "No homo Espanol." Uhh, yeah.

One might get the wrong idea of what I'm trying to say just because I can't spell. It could happen here too. Take your post to an English professor and ask them to point out your spelling and grammar errors. Learn how to utilize a tool before using it, otherwise you might hurt someone. Namely, yourself (try making your own resume?). It sure hurt me to see all your errors.


By Seemonkeyscanfly on 7/16/2008 1:00:56 PM , Rating: 2
I'd give them a break. If they do the report say in 2095 and the memory is still working correct, it will be close enough. Have to give them + - 10% for error right?? :)


RE: I expect a follow up...
By TSS on 7/16/2008 2:54:17 PM , Rating: 4
if they can find anything that's still working to hook it up to. remember the flash lasts 100 years not the interface.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By Smartless on 7/16/2008 3:18:51 PM , Rating: 4
For some reason that episode of southpark just popped into my head.

"This is some ancient super VHS or something. I can't connect your Wii to your floatscreen"

"There's gotta be someway to hook it up, its the fricken future"

"This may be the future for you but I can't hook up anything with less than a lazer 7 output."

"You gotta be $hittin me."


RE: I expect a follow up...
By xphile on 7/17/2008 10:52:51 PM , Rating: 2
And worse than that even before the interface expires the capacity has been so thoroughly spanked you dont use the media even for backup any more.

Who still has vital backup data stored on floppy disc?

Who would even if they'd said it will last 100 years?

And that interface is STILL around and still purchasable brand new.

Longevity is a moot point.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By DeepBlue1975 on 7/16/2008 4:13:18 PM , Rating: 1
Look, I've got a Delorean and was born in 2090.
I've got plenty of these to sell you, but you must promise to start waiting way before the day I start selling them, and tell all your friends about it.
Once all of you already had given me your money, I'll have plenty to buy the plutonium I need so I can use the Delorean Again and return to my time... With the remaining money which still is pretty valid in 2120.

PS: tell Spielberg that we've got no flying cars, but we've got some really neat intelligent laundry machines with integrated hologames console and holographic tutorials advising you how to pick up a girl while you wait for the laundry to be ready. And yes, you still need the damn coins and the clothes usually come out all wet... But hey, you get to play "The Elders Crawl" while you wait!.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By wvh on 7/16/2008 9:46:24 PM , Rating: 1
Seeing as the dollar is going the way of the peso... You might have to reconsider your currency though. Perhaps gold or oil? Or diamonds... There will always be idiots who want to spend a shitload of money on something with as little use.

My bet is on land... Protection against overpopulation, Lebensraum for your grandchildren.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By Noya on 7/17/2008 12:18:46 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
Seeing as the dollar is going the way of the peso...

Yeah, the Dollar is crapping out thanks to running those printing presses 24/7...the evils of a fiat monetary system in such a greedy and unstable world.

quote:
My bet is on land...

Yeah, unfortunately the government can take your land when it deems it necessary.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By BruceLeet on 7/16/2008 6:57:51 PM , Rating: 2
Eh heh.

"Now with 7 year warranty!!"


RE: I expect a follow up...
By Clauzii on 7/17/2008 12:27:00 AM , Rating: 2
Can the Vista calender show more than 100 years?

Psst: It's a Tuesday.


RE: I expect a follow up...
By stlrenegade on 7/17/2008 9:54:48 AM , Rating: 2
I worked on a DOE Remediation project that was cleaning up a uranium processing site in Missouri (WSSRAP). The site was cleaned up and the waste was collected and put into a giant "cell" that was a huge hill that had several layers of dirt/synthetic barrier/sand/gravel/rock to contain the waste. They said it would withstand tornadoes and severe weather and last for 500 years. Who's to say that is correct? No one working on the project will be here in 100 years, much less 500.


100+ years?
By martinrichards23 on 7/16/2008 12:35:05 PM , Rating: 2
Well, even if they are wrong, they will be dead in 100 years anyway.




RE: 100+ years?
By FITCamaro on 7/16/2008 12:48:38 PM , Rating: 5
I'm sure by then a US ambulance chasing attorney will have found a way to sue dead people for their past mistakes.


RE: 100+ years?
By MikieTImT on 7/16/2008 2:03:19 PM , Rating: 5
They'll have to start chasing hearses instead then.


RE: 100+ years?
By goku on 7/16/2008 2:16:48 PM , Rating: 2
You can, by suing the present day company; Tobacco Companies anyone?


Why?
By DeuceHalo on 7/16/2008 1:34:02 PM , Rating: 2
Who's going to still be interested in piddly 16GB thumb drives in 100 years when Buy N Large comes out with their 500 Exabyte model?




RE: Why?
By blckgrffn on 7/16/2008 2:45:17 PM , Rating: 2
Just throw that other piece of garbage away...


RE: Why?
By sweetsauce on 7/16/2008 3:41:49 PM , Rating: 2
I think all researchers should adhere to your stupid advice and halt all research asap. Whats the point since tomorrow there might be something better...


RE: Why?
By DeuceHalo on 7/16/2008 4:02:22 PM , Rating: 2
Who said anything about halting all research? Not I. However, we should be able to place value in research. There are far to many studies out there that have the "duh" result.

But since you believe there is intrinsic value in maintaining obsolete systems for 100 years, please, by all means continue to enjoy surfing the web with your 2400 baud modem attached to your $3000 8088 computer system.


RE: Why?
By HrilL on 7/16/2008 9:01:47 PM , Rating: 2
Yes I loaded dailytech's page and it only took me 15 minutes =0


RE: Why?
By Chocobollz on 7/17/2008 2:36:33 AM , Rating: 2
Yeah, and btw, they should start to thinking about ramping up performance rather than making it to last for a century. We would be dead by that time anyway :-D


RE: Why?
By marsbound2024 on 7/16/2008 5:34:36 PM , Rating: 2
Watch WALL-E recently by chance? :p


I dont think that...
By UppityMatt on 7/16/2008 1:27:50 PM , Rating: 1
Seagate has much room to talk. Seems i have had 3 of my last 5 Seagate drives die in the last 3 years and had to be replaced. At this point if they can create a drive that lasts past the warranty period they would be doing better in my humble opinion. I haven't bought a single drive from them since.




RE: I dont think that...
By dwalton on 7/16/2008 3:37:29 PM , Rating: 2
Almost everyone of my computer have gone through its hdd given up the ghost. Seems like hdds in general are the most short lived on average component of a computer.


RE: I dont think that...
By Clauzii on 7/17/2008 12:16:20 AM , Rating: 2
If You keep them at max. 35 degrees celsius, and don't kick them too much(!), most will live a looong time. Unless it's a normal IDE running 24/7. They don't like that if it's 365 days a year too.


RE: I dont think that...
By theapparition on 7/16/2008 5:13:19 PM , Rating: 2
Bet those were part of the old Maxtor line. (Seagate bought Maxtor)

Never had any other brand of disc fail like Maxtor. From personal experience, over 30 died.


RE: I dont think that...
By wvh on 7/16/2008 9:49:47 PM , Rating: 2
Either you have a huge load of harddisks, or you're a really slow learner. ;)

Couldn't have been as bad as those IBM Deathstars, though... Those truly dropped liked flies.


RE: I dont think that...
By Clauzii on 7/17/2008 1:20:04 AM , Rating: 2
Luckily, I avoided the Deathstar series, so I can actually say I have never had a HD go bad on me. NEVER! (Ok, a quantum 850MB, but that's because I dropped it..16 years ago :-)

I currently have 1x20MB(!), 1x245MB(!), 1x540MB(!), 2x6GB, 2x20GB, 6x40GB, 2x80GB, 4x120GB, 2x250GB and one 750GB running in various systems, and all looks healthy. And backed up of course!


More Things Fixed with SSD
By AggressorPrime on 7/16/2008 12:26:18 PM , Rating: 3
-Quick Access, Fixed by Start
-Raw Transfer Speed, Fixed by OCZ Core
-Life Time, Now Fixed
-Space, Just a matter of time...
-Price, Getting there...

Fixed = equal/greater than HDD




RE: More Things Fixed with SSD
By bunnyfubbles on 7/16/2008 1:27:51 PM , Rating: 2
Quick Access - was obvious from the beginning

Raw Transfer Speed - wasn't exactly hard

Life Time - might be fixed for this, but what about combining technologies? Something that is designed to last long might not have the performance/capacity/cost efficiency...in the end, we consumers don't really need a drive that lasts 100 years, 10 years would be more than enough...

Space - largely irrelevant, there's nothing wrong with disc drives for archiving the bulk of our data.

Price - again, not particularly that important, disc drives will be cheap and will continue to grow cheaper, we can save money by using insanely fast solid state drives as our drive for our OS and programs, while keeping disc drives around for their cost effective massive storage capabilities.


RE: More Things Fixed with SSD
By Oregonian2 on 7/16/2008 2:15:53 PM , Rating: 2
The wear leveling idea is ancient technology, and usually is something in the driver software. Used even with old FAT16 that rewrites the FAT quite a lot that I recall. :-)

This announcement seems not to be traditional "flash" per se, but a ferroelectric based technology. In other words, not an incremental difference but something new that's borrowing the name of the mainline product. This tells me to beware -- it's an infant technology so it may not work as well in a mass production environment or in real life (temperature, etc) as one might hope. One of the other new "flash" technologies currently has a high-temperature problem I understand.

A new technology also sometimes has problems with yield (cost) in a production environment. So it looks like a good thing, but things aren't quite a done deal yet. Let's see how they do when they are in SSD's purchasable at Fry's for a good price.


Hmm?
By dwalton on 7/16/2008 3:35:27 PM , Rating: 5
"all cells are used equally, and overused cells are 'retired'"

Doesn't this statement seem odd? If all cells are used equally then would each cell hit the overused ceiling and be retired roughly at the same time.

Like one day, you look up and your flash drive simply stops working as the majority of the cells inside are simply sitting back collecting social security.




RE: Hmm?
By Clauzii on 7/17/2008 6:54:50 AM , Rating: 2
As I see it, balancing the cells is like spreading out on the whole disc ie. filling it up before erasing anything. And then only overwrite what's absolutely nescesarry.

The 'retired' state is probably for files that are often used and unmovable. To my knowledge, some files in Windows are like that.

Retired cells get copied to new ones, and the old locked down. The drive probably does this transparent to Windows, that would otherwise not know where a unmovable file went.

So rather as one total shutdown, instead, I see the drives getying smaller and smaller.


Nessie
By elpresidente2075 on 7/16/2008 12:57:45 PM , Rating: 2
A few years ago, the Japanese scientists were found working on a project that would blow up Lake Loch Ness in an attempt to find Nessie. Apparently (despite the summoning of local wizards) something has come of it, as this report shows.




RE: Nessie
By JonnyDough on 7/16/2008 6:15:08 PM , Rating: 2
What we need is Kaspersky to hack the Loch Ness Monster's arterial brain waves, and then demonstrate to us all how to summon more wizards to write more reports. Yes, I am confused. See my other Kaspersky post for clarification.


Kaspersky
By JonnyDough on 7/16/2008 6:12:38 PM , Rating: 2
Once Kaspersky keenly demonstrates how you can take 10nm flash and reduce it's longevity by 99% while simultaneously gaining access to the hidden safe in your basement wall none of this will matter.




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