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Intel is in for a volatile 2006

Intel saw its profits drop by 38% in the first quarter to $1.35 billion dollars -- that was down from $2.18 billion a year ago. However, the earnings of 23 cents per share just barely eked pasted analysts' expectations of 22 cents per share.

"The first quarter was a little better than I was expecting. The second-quarter (estimate) was worse than I modeled. We're in for a rough quarter with Intel," said ThinkEquity Partners analyst Eric Ross. Things have pretty much been down across the board for Intel. Reuters reports:

The company lowered its full-year revenue forecast to a 3 percent fall from 2005. In January, Intel had forecast 6 percent to 9 percent revenue growth in 2006. Intel also cut its estimate of 2006 gross margin to 53 percent from its January forecast of 57 percent.

Much of the drop can be attributed to AMD's recent gains on the desktop and in the server arena. While Intel shares have dropped 24% in the past year, AMD shares have risen 80% during the same period.

Intel has aggressively cut prices to stay ahead of AMD's surge and its new Core lineup is expected to give them a boost later in the year. Only time will tell if AMD's Socket AM2 processors will have what it takes to keep up with Core products.

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It will all turn back around soon
By bamacre on 4/20/2006 10:24:03 AM , Rating: 2
Intel has a lot of good stuff coming out this year, things are going to rebound, and fairly well, too.




RE: It will all turn back around soon
By AstroCreep on 4/20/2006 10:37:52 AM , Rating: 2
It wouldn't surprise me, anyway.
The new products they have lined up are (finally) focusing on real performance, not just being 'fast', and they will absolutely play up the fact that their next gen stuff beats AMD in most aspects, especially with the lawsuit and all...


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 10:52:26 AM , Rating: 2
Why does everyone gobble up the intel hype (hype not evidence) about conroe and ask for seconds? When real world performance numbers come out and we see that Conroe performs better than k8 by just a little if at all will you people finally realize that you shouldn’t take intel’s word for it?


By AnotherGuy on 4/20/2006 10:56:16 AM , Rating: 2
Tell her it's up to either a new comp or a new wife


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By bamacre on 4/20/2006 10:56:36 AM , Rating: 2
Still in denial, huh? :D


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 11:06:36 AM , Rating: 1
no I just don't jump ship because the dude selling life boats says we are sinking...


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By bamacre on 4/20/2006 11:14:08 AM , Rating: 2
Yup, still in denial.

Hey, this is good for everyone. I've built amd and intel systems, don't have a problem with with either one. Except for the fact the competition between them is nothing to the sort of that between ATI and Nvidia. And that will hopefully start changing, which is good for all of us.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 1:58:35 PM , Rating: 2
Not in denial, just don't trust intel the same as I wouldn't trust AMD.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By zsdersw on 4/20/2006 3:53:07 PM , Rating: 2
Bull...

You certainly trust AMD more than Intel, and this quote from you is a strong testament to it:

quote:
When real world performance numbers come out and we see that Conroe performs better than k8 by just a little if at all


So you're trusting that the best available from AMD when Conroe ships will be only a little slower, if at all. You're placing trust in something we haven't really seen yet; exactly what you're saying people shouldn't do with Conroe.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By dmcanally on 4/21/2006 10:27:45 AM , Rating: 1
Whe did I say "the best available from AMD"? Don't assume and don't put words in my mouth. Even so, "the best available from AMD" when conroe comes out will be about the same performance of "the best available from AMD" right now.


By zsdersw on 4/21/2006 11:21:00 AM , Rating: 2
Then perhaps you should explain what you meant in your quote that I had in my reply.

It's not really an assumption to interpret what you said as meaning to imply "the best from AMD".. considering that the K8 architecture will be what's out when Conroe ships.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By hstewarth on 4/20/2006 10:58:32 AM , Rating: 1
There have been non-Intel previews of the Conroe showing off its performance on the Net. It doesn't matter much, just wait to this summer when people start getting them.

AMD really should be worry about the Conroe that much, it is the Woodcrest chip that they should be really worry about. I have not seen any previews on it but with its dual independent 1333Mhz bus at FB-Memory that 4x the speed of current memory. This is going to be one fast machine. Conroe and AMD AM2's will look like Celorons compared to it.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 11:01:23 AM , Rating: 2
links? Are there real numbers with close to equal machines?


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By hstewarth on 4/20/2006 11:23:57 AM , Rating: 2
There are many benchmarks out there - just Google for "Conroe FX 60" Here are 2 such, can't remmeber the forum with results with AMD people dropping there jaws.

http://www.hothardware.com/viewarticle.aspx

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i...

Please keep in my these were only at 2.4 and 2.66Ghz, the 3Ghz Woodcrest and eventually the 3.33Ghz Conroe EE would be signficantly faster.


By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 1:44:36 PM , Rating: 2
if there were emoticon's on here I would insert a rolleyes...


By dmcanally on 4/20/2006 1:57:20 PM , Rating: 2
looks like I will be using this emoticon too...

:footinmouth:


By harshbarj on 4/20/2006 3:13:29 PM , Rating: 2
Those reviews can't be trusted as intel set them up. All they(anandtech/hothardware) were able to do is hit the start button. Till they can get these chips in the lab and truly bench them anyone would be foolish to trust them. As a rule NEVER trust scores put out by manufactures.

from anandtech

"Intel setup the systems, Intel installed the benchmarks and Intel only let us run what it had installed. "


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By bbomb on 4/20/2006 3:45:29 PM , Rating: 2
Too bad it took Intel 5 years to catch up to the peformance of AMD's ancient K8 architechture. I wonder when AMD plans to revamp its cores and release K9.


By zsdersw on 4/20/2006 3:54:38 PM , Rating: 2
Too bad you don't realize that it takes 5 years for a new architecture to come out from either Intel or AMD.


RE: It will all turn back around soon
By Viditor on 4/20/2006 12:00:26 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Intel has a lot of good stuff coming out this year, things are going to rebound, and fairly well, too

They do have a very good desktop CPU (apparently) coming out. But how does that mean things will necessarily rebound for them?

1. Even if Conroe is the best thing since sliced bread, they can only produce enough for them to be ~10% of their desktops in Q3, and ~20% in Q4. This isn't enough volume for them to turn the financials around.

2. AMD will still continue to gain significant growth in servers. Even if Woodcrest is amazing, it won't be qualified till well into next year (about the time K8L is