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IT IDC: IT Spending Slowdown in 2009
Michael Barkoviak - November 17, 2008 9:28 AM

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30 comment(s) - last by Gzus666.. on Nov 18 at 10:24 AM

Analyst group IDC anticipates an IT spending slowdown in 2009

Industry analyst firm IDC recently issued a report warning the personal computer market will "slow down sharply" over the next quarter and into 2009.

The global economic crisis will lead to consumers spending less money during this holiday shopping season, with the United States, Japan and Western Europe suffering the most. On a domestic scale, Silicon Valley will be hardest hit, as the region has the highest concentration of high-tech jobs in the United States.

Prior to the economic chaos that came full circle in September, Goldman Sachs & Co. predicted IT job cuts in 2009, claiming both contractors and full-term employees would suffer because of the economy.

IDC originally predicted IT spending would grow 5.9 percent in 2009, but the latest report indicates just 2.6 percent growth.

Hardware spending, except for storage, will decline next year, while computer software and services should see solid growth over the next year, IDC said.

The entire briefing is available in IDC's Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide IT Spending 2008-2012 Forecast Update, which is available now.

"Although the revised forecast and the downside scenario both reflect a grim outlook for global economic growth over the next several years, IT spending actually fares well when compared to the previous downturn after the events of September 11, 2001," according to Stephen Minton, IDC Worldwide IT Markets and Strategies VP.

In addition, IT "is in a better position than ever to resist the downward pull of a slowing economy," which means spending on technology products will continue to grow next year -- but it won't be at the same pace analysts predicted six months ago.

Cisco, Dell, Nortel, and other companies have already announced IT spending will drop in the future, if it already hasn't.

Even if the next year or two will be tough for the IT industry, IDC and other analyst firms expect technology spending to recover at some point between 2010 and 2012. But the industry may lose more than $300 billion in revenue until a turnaround takes place in 2012 or beyond.

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Sucks

By FITCamaro on 11/17/2008 11:56:02 AM , Rating: 2

Friend of mine just graduated and is trying to get into the IT field.

RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 12:45:19 PM , Rating: 2

Tell me about it, ha. Got a CCNA and can't even get a bite.

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RE: Sucks

By Lord 666 on 11/17/2008 1:43:29 PM , Rating: 3

Push on forward and complete your CCVP. With the economy being sluggish, Cisco is pushing the IPT segment as there are cost benefits (reduced cabling and reduced cost on Moves/Adds/Changes.) There are many positions that are looking for "basic" Callmanager, and Unity experience. I have my CCIE Voice lab scheduled for Jan.

It also doesn't hurt to compliment the Cisco certs with Microsoft ones either.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 2:31:31 PM , Rating: 2

I was debating on moving to my CCNP or get a MCSE. Not sure about the current books that are out for the CCNP and I would have to update my Cisco rack, which would be a bit expensive. MCSE might be my next obvious choice, but you would think I could get at least a help desk position with A+, Net+ and CCNA. I mean damn, I'm not expecting to rule the world immediately, just a bite.

I might have to look into voice stuff. My pop is a telco guy for a large company, so I could easily get the information without issue. I guess it never has been up my alley as far as enjoyment goes, but I might end up giving it more of a chance.

Honestly though, the amount of open jobs have dropped to almost nothing here in Dallas. I check once a week and go back through the entire week's postings and there is barely anything compared to just 6 months ago. Rough time to be in the market I guess.

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RE: Sucks

By Lord 666 on 11/17/2008 2:54:21 PM , Rating: 2

http://seeker.dice.com/jobsearch/servlet/JobSearch...

http://seeker.dice.com/jobsearch/servlet/JobSearch...

http://seeker.dice.com/jobsearch/servlet/JobSearch...

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RE: Sucks

By afkrotch on 11/17/2008 2:00:51 PM , Rating: 1

Certificates are shiat if you don't have the experience to back it up too. Not to mention ppl networking.

Depending on the job, having a security clearance also holds a lot of value. If your friend or you don't have a security clearance and we were both going for a job with like...Lockheed Martin, even without experience/certs, I'd get the job.

Life's a bitch sometimes.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 2:38:44 PM , Rating: 1

Right, but you don't get experience by not working somewhere. If every business relied on nobody but experienced people, things would be in trouble pretty quick.

As I told Lord, I don't expect the world by any means. But I can't even get calls back on help desk positions for less than I make at my current job. Rough time to be in the market. Honestly I have only seen one job that required security clearance that I was actually interested in and would be qualified for.

But, as you said, life is a bitch. Not so much bitching as just putting it out there. Hell, 6 months ago I would have had people hand over foot offering me jobs in this area.

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RE: Sucks

By FITCamaro on 11/17/2008 3:33:48 PM , Rating: 2

Getting a job without years of experience is getting harder and harder. Why? Because of all the layoffs, there's plenty of people to chose from. It's an employers market right now.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 3:40:46 PM , Rating: 2

Yea, it's getting rough, but I guess I will just have to keep trying. No one said it was going to be easy, ha.

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RE: Sucks

By TO on 11/17/2008 5:06:25 PM , Rating: 2

Tell me about it... I have a B.S. in Computer Science, an MBA in Strategic Management Information Systems, PMI Cert., 2 years of SDLC IT Project Management Experience and I can't find sh*t!

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 5:12:31 PM , Rating: 2

Man, that is lame. You would think someone would jump on that. You live in a bad IT area, or just nothing biting?

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RE: Sucks

By TO on 11/17/2008 5:25:02 PM , Rating: 2

It seems that I'm competing with people that have 5-14 years experience since they don't have jobs now, there willing to jump down to my pay rate just to have a job!

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 5:41:35 PM , Rating: 2

Yea, that seems to be my problem as well. They laid off that huge IT firm in Dallas and since then the job openings have been almost nothing. You want to start a consulting firm with me? Ha!

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RE: Sucks

By TO on 11/17/2008 6:00:02 PM , Rating: 2

Actually I was thinking of opening a Staffing/Consulting firm... You can cover Dallas and I got NYC! Anyone else want to jump aboard?

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RE: Sucks

By Lord 666 on 11/17/2008 7:52:40 PM , Rating: 2

Was going to add that the complete opposite is sometimes true... too much experience.

If you are in NYC as I am, the PMI and MBA (from Columbia?) combined should count for something.

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RE: Sucks

By afkrotch on 11/17/2008 3:34:22 PM , Rating: 2

There's always the lower lvl positions, where you get training/experience. Usually as you progress, the company may see you have potential and send you on your way to training classes and such. These usually aren't great paying jobs, but good way to get in the door for college students/grads.

My hometown is close to Boise, Idaho. Too many IT jobs, not enough IT ppl. Not that I care too much, as I'm looking for jobs in Tokyo.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 3:50:48 PM , Rating: 2

Yea, but the pay is so bad most normal people can't live off it. I had one that tried to offer $14/hr as a 9 month contract to be the actual support for field techs that are setting up routers and switches for companies.

Obviously to be tech support for the field techs requires more knowledge than them to help them when they get stuck. For me that was around $6-7k a year cut in pay, no vacation, health or dental. This effectively cuts the pay further, as I tend to turn my vacation pay in for cash as it is, cause I rarely get to use it.

Hell, maybe I'm complaining too much, but even my pop who has been doing telco for 20 years or so says that was insane and they will just end up with some moron for that price.

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RE: Sucks

By drebo on 11/17/2008 11:59:32 PM , Rating: 2

For the most part, the overall trend in IT positions now is to require more qualifications, have broader job requirements, and offer less pay. For instance, I was just offered a job as a DBA. The job required that I have development experience in ColdFusion. It used to be that the DBA was the DBA and the developers were the developers. This job would have paid 65-70K starting 3-5 years ago. Now it pays 50K. I didn't take the job (current employer offered me a better deal) but that's how it is now.

Another example I see a lot of are the "Network Administrator" positions. It used to be that you'd have one that worked on the infrastructure and one on the software. Now, if you want to be a "Network Administrator", you'd damn well better be good in Cisco, Server 2K3, Exchange, AND have database management skills. Voice is typically a plus. That should be 3 jobs.

Voice is currently where we're seeing our greatest growth. Huge growth and even more potential for more growth. With voice, you can offer your customer a better alternative that will ultimately cost less. For offices with less than 8 phones, it isn't economical to have a full PBX on site, but some of the features of the PBX may be desirable. That's why I'm developing a virtual hosted PBX solution based on Asterisk. There's a low entry cost for the customer and the potential for great recurring revenue for me. For larger offices, I can still offer a customer premesis PBX, but now I'll have the infrastructure in place to offer SIP trunking, for the best of both worlds.

My suggestion would be to get into voice. It's where the money is right now.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/18/2008 9:03:09 AM , Rating: 2

I've definitely noticed that. Network admin that requires an MCSE only. Seems like the new America is to have one person do as many jobs as they can, effectively spreading them thin and making all the sections suffer.

I guess it might be time to get a CCVP book and go hit up my pop for some voice info, ha.

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RE: Sucks

By Lord 666 on 11/18/2008 10:08:34 AM , Rating: 2

Check out this http://www.ipexpert.com/index.cfm/a/p/vlectures for a free start.

When I completed my CCVP almost two years ago, the QoS exam was the most challenging, but with at least IOS 12.3 you should be able to do most of the labs at home. Your father would be able to help with the CVOICE exam as they cover some pre-IPT elements. The other three exams were straightforward.

My CCIE Voice written was completed at Networkers 2007 and was a composite of all five exams plus some really random questions.

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RE: Sucks

By Gzus666 on 11/18/2008 10:24:19 AM , Rating: 2

DOH! None of my stuff is 12.3. Got a 2610, 2611, 2650, then 2 2924XM switches and a base 2924. Going to have to upgrade I guess.

Thanks for the link, but CCIE is a bit above me right now, shooting for the professional stuff first. I do have access to newer Nortel stuff though, rather similar anymore to at least get the basics of voice down. Pop hates Cisco stuff, but he can at least help me with the non-vendor specific voice stuff, since he is heavy on analog and VoIP stuff.

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RE: Sucks

By corduroygt on 11/18/2008 12:23:43 AM , Rating: 2

Maybe we should all give up IT and join the UAW.

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ECONOMY IN RECESSION

By crystal clear on 11/17/2008 11:59:22 AM , Rating: 3

quote:
The global economic crisis will lead to consumers spending less money during this holiday shopping season, with the United States, Japan and Western Europe suffering the most.

Lets it be very crystal clear - the U.S. economy is in a full fledged RECESSION just like Japan & the major economies in the E.U.

Dont expect a quick turn around - this recesssion is here to stay for a long time,with the situation getting even worse by the day.

Just an example-

The unemployment rate rose to a 14-year peak of 6.5 percent in October. With the unemployment situation expected to deteriorate, consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity, would remain depressed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4AG0...

This recession will hit very hard just every sector of the economy incl the I.T./high tech sector.

The I.T. sector will suffer the most compared to other sectors of the economy-companies & people in the general will simply STOP spending on/buying new equipment etc.

The attitude will be " if it works fine - dont replace it-make do with it"</

Net result- Very poor sales & huge inventories & losses.

People are fooling themselves if they believe/think its a small crisis that will pass over soon - NO this one will be really bad & a prolonged crisis.

RE: ECONOMY IN RECESSION

By The0ne on 11/17/2008 12:49:08 PM , Rating: 2

IMO we've been in a recession since early of this year due to no growth for 3 months. There are still those that want to believe we're not however, which is very unfortunate.

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RE: ECONOMY IN RECESSION

By Gzus666 on 11/17/2008 12:51:19 PM , Rating: 1

I think it is one of those "If we believe hard enough and pretend it isn't happening it will become truth" types of deals.

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RE: ECONOMY IN RECESSION

By Oregonian2 on 11/17/2008 7:45:54 PM , Rating: 2

It's interesting that this article says there will be growth of 2.6%. Not exactly a slowdown on an absolute scale, just that growth itself is less so.

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RE: ECONOMY IN RECESSION

By crystal clear on 11/18/2008 7:40:17 AM , Rating: 2

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."

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"Slowdown?" Try "reduction"

By amanojaku on 11/17/2008 9:40:01 AM , Rating: 3

"Slowdown" implies a temporary adjustment in spending policies; I'd say companies are looking for permanent solutions. It's harder to make it big these days, so you have to be cost-conscious. I've seen companies diverge into new markets, like reselling their internal IT staff as professional services... all just to make and keep a buck.

RE: "Slowdown?" Try "reduction"

By steven975 on 11/17/2008 9:54:38 AM , Rating: 3

Exactly...more permanent solutions. Contrary to what the IT companies would have you think, there hasn't been many revolutionary things this millenium.

XP machines and Windows Server machines still work. Exchange Servers still work. Routers and switches still work. Even old Enterprise software still works. I can definitely say the stuff from Oracle isn't worth the money over the old versions.

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