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And air-breathing batteries, the end of traffic jams, cities heated by computer servers

Every year IBM surveys 3,000 of its engineers to predict five technological advances they think will take off within the next five years. One thing we can look forward to by 2015, Bloomberg reports, is holographic phone calls via mobile phone (think: Princess Leia's "Help me Obi-Wan" message projected by R2D2 in A New Hope).

Holographic phone calls lead the list which also includes air-breathing batteries, traffic jam-predicting computer programs, cities powered by computer servers' heat byproducts, and environmental information generated by sensors in cars and phones.

"These are all stretch goals, and that’s good," Paul Saffo, managing director of foresight at the investment-advisory firm Discern, told 
Bloomberg. "In an era when pessimism is the new black, a little dose of technological optimism is not a bad thing."

Aside from its entertainment value, the survey is important for IBM's own bottom line. IBM invested $5.8 billion in research and development last year, outspending its rivals. IBM's R&D figure accounted for 6.1 percent of revenue, while Hewlett-Packard spent only 2.4 percent of its revenue last year on R&D.

Many of the ideas that make IBM's yearly list reflect projects currently in development. Earlier this year, IBM teamed up with local and state agencies in California to crowdsource waterway monitoring. An app allows users to take a photo of rivers and streams and report back to the agencies, who don't have the means or the funds to monitor the waterways themselves. The environmental information sensors are an expansion on this project. 

"All this demonstrates a real culture of innovation at IBM and willingness to devote itself to solving some of the world’s biggest problems," Josephine Cheng, vice president at IBM’s Almaden lab, told 

IBM predicts that batteries could last 10 times longer in 2015 compared to today, because lithium-ion technology will be replaced with batteries made of energy-dense metals that recharge by interacting with the air.

Traffic jams will be lessened thanks to computer programs based on complex algorithms that, with the addition of real-time traffic info, can predict where and when traffic will happen. This information will be made available to drivers who will be told how to avoid being a victim of a jam. 

Finally, IBM says that almost half of a data center's power is used to keep the computers from over-heating. IBM engineers say that it would be more efficient to harness the heat produced by the computers to warm residential and commercial buildings.

However, you shouldn't put your money on all of IBM's predictions. In its first annual survey, conducted in 2006, the engineers predicted that instant speech translation would be the norm by now. While some, like Google, have made strides in the field, speech translation's ubiquity is limited, and the technology is still a work in progress. 

Another IBM prediction, this time in 2007, said that smartphones would act as wallets, ticket brokers, banks, and shopping assistants. That, to an extent, has already come true. Smartphone apps for Android, iOS, Blackberry, and Windows Phone 7 allow users to conduct online banking activities, pay bills, track spending, compare product prices, and buy tickets, all with a few clicks.

"The nice thing about the list is that it provokes thought," Saffo told 
Bloomberg. "If everything came true, they wouldn’t be doing their job."

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It's nice to work in a lab, but...
By amanojaku on 12/27/2010 11:19:28 AM , Rating: 3
Sometimes you need to be grounded in reality. Video calls are still uncommon, and holographic projection has yet to be commercialized. Only Star Wars fans will love a blue or red display. I don't see full-color holographic displays working on phones in five years, even as a prototype.

Even if I'm wrong, battery life is dwindling: older phones worked up to a week without charging, while newer phones sometimes need to be charged daily. Guess we'll need that kinetic energy charger IBM promises, too...

However, I don't see too many people shaking their phones a la Alec Baldwin for a recharge.

RE: It's nice to work in a lab, but...
By syphon on 12/27/2010 12:46:22 PM , Rating: 3
Very true. I have an EVO which is capable of video calls. I have made 3 calls on it in the 4 months I have had this phone. Call 1 was to a friend just to see if it works..the other two calls were from other friends testing if it worked. I have many friends that have the capability of video calls however none of us ever use it.

By Murloc on 12/27/2010 5:13:33 PM , Rating: 1
it's because it's useless.
If you have the time to do videoconferencing with your phone, why not just meet

By ThePooBurner on 12/27/2010 12:53:01 PM , Rating: 2
Some new phones are being outfitted with new Pico projectors that use low power lasers. It's not unreasonalbe to think that within 5 years someone one start using the pico projector as a means of outputting the video call being received. And since Video is starting to get a major push from companies like Apple (facetime), and the zelots always do what jobs says is cool, a 5 year time frame for it to at least be on the market is reasonable. 2 years for video chat to be the norm after it's fully adopted by Apple and other smartphone makers, and then 3 years after that for the new and improved video chatting. "Skype anywhere you've got a wall for life sized (and life like, wink wink) communication with your friends!"

No fusion powered flying cars?
By flyingrooster on 12/27/2010 11:43:16 AM , Rating: 2
Some of these predictions are really out there. The holographic mobile phone calls? Video calls were going to be ubiquitous in the 1950's, and 60 years later, it's still a rare event. And these new batteries, is there even a prototype yet? It takes years of R&D before it can be considered to be commercialized, let alone popular. The LiIon battery was around for years before it became cheap enough to mass market, and the early ones had major issues with high failure rates and explosions. The environmental sensors and traffic control technology are more plausible goals and are already implemented to an extent with the cell phone car traffic tracking.

They should have said flying cars powered by Mr. Fusion in 5 years.

By Anoxanmore on 12/27/2010 1:17:19 PM , Rating: 3
There is no realistic way to get a DeLorean to drive fast enough to achieve flight. ;)

Now breaking the time barrier and crossing the Einstein-Rosen Bridge, well that only requires 88 mph and 1.21 Gigawatts.

By Shadowmaster625 on 12/28/2010 8:28:21 AM , Rating: 1
The early ones? lol they are still exploding on a daily basis. If there is one thing you can count on, it is the fact that at this very moment, somewhere in the world, a battery is exploding. And that is 30+ year old technology.

By dgingeri on 12/27/2010 12:05:34 PM , Rating: 2
All these things are decades away. There is no way anyone is going to have the money to invest to develop these technologies for about 20 more years.

With US politics going the way they are, robbing all companies of any decent profit they make and keeping them from reinvesting it for product development, it might be more like 50 years.

By Silver2k7 on 12/27/2010 7:44:17 PM , Rating: 2
"Many of the ideas that make IBM's yearly list reflect projects currently in development."

Why wouldn't they develop holographic projection? It's already avalible in japan thought not as miniaturised as it would need to be to fit in a mobile phone.

By maven81 on 12/28/2010 1:53:57 PM , Rating: 2
"With US politics going the way they are, robbing all companies of any decent profit they make and keeping them from reinvesting it for product development, it might be more like 50 years."

Meanwhile on planet earth many US businesses are showing record profits. The only thing keeping these companies from re-investing in product development is themselves. It's their choice whether to spend that money on R&D or something else. And unfortunately most of them don't see R&D as a high priority.

You can trust IBM predictions
By kontorotsui on 12/28/2010 6:03:01 AM , Rating: 2
"I think there is a world market for about five computers"

Tom Watson, IBM chairman, 1958

RE: You can trust IBM predictions
By Parhel on 12/28/2010 9:04:28 AM , Rating: 2
Key word there is "is." As in, present tense.

By cjohnson2136 on 12/28/2010 9:49:37 AM , Rating: 2
In 1958 that would have been true. 2010 that is not true. I don't think he was making a prediction of what should be. Only saying what was needed for then.

"I modded down, down, down, and the flames went higher." -- Sven Olsen
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