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Gadgets Hybrid Vehicles 6% of U.S. Car Market by 2013
Marcus Yam (Blog) - November 10, 2006 11:30 AM
Print E-mail del.icio.us 36 comment(s) - last by theapparition.. on Nov 13 at 9:25 AM

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Market share to rise from just 1.25% in 2005 to at least 6% in 2013

Hybrid vehicles have been a niche market at best since their first introductions in the late 1990s. First developed by Toyota and Honda, the early systems were examined in detail by their competitors and the conclusion was that the added complexity and weight would make the vehicles too expensive for all but wealthy consumers with an interest in preserving the environment.

"Early hybrid vehicles sacrificed space, comfort, and performance for low emissions and high fuel economy," says ABI Research senior analyst David Alexander. "Now a much wider variety of hybrid vehicles is available."

A new ABI Research study, "Consumer Hybrid Vehicles," finds that the market now offers the benefits of a number of different hybrid applications, some of which are still designed for reduced fuel consumption and emissions while others offer enhanced performance or exclusive features such as AC power outlets. This adaptation to a wider market should see consumer hybrids' market share in the United States rise from just 1.25% in 2005 to at least 6% in 2013.

"In the consumer market, education is critical to the uptake of any new technology," says Alexander. "Many vehicle buyers now appear to have learned how hybrid technologies work and are getting interested in benefits other than better mileage. If fuel prices come down, performance becomes more desirable."

Toyota has broadened its hybrid range from the deliberately quirky Prius to include the Highlander SUV, the mainstream Camry, and a couple of Lexus luxury vehicles. Each is tuned to appeal to particular market segments. Honda has dropped its hybrid special vehicle, the Insight, in favor of enhanced versions of the Civic and Accord, both of which lean slightly more toward performance than economy.

GM will be launching its two-mode system next year in its full size SUVs under the tag line "No Compromise." It has already introduced the mild hybrid Saturn Vue Greenline, and the Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid pickup truck that features a built-in 110-V power supply. Ford's Escape was promoted from the start as having V6 performance with four-cylinder economy.

"Manufacturers are starting to tailor hybrid-electric technology to meet the needs of the target audience," concludes Alexander.

In other automotive news Honda has been showcasing its next generation clean diesel and fuel cell motor technologies, India is expected to have hydrogen powered cars soon, Intelligent Design has been showcasing its fuel cell motorcycle, Nissan broke ties with Toyota on hybrid technology development and lastly BMW released its first hydrogen powered vehicle.

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Heh...hybrids blow
By archcommus on 11/10/2006 1:13:45 PM , Rating: 2
When they cost at least $5000 more than their non-hybrid counterpart, of course no one's going to want them.

In case you didn't notice, unless you drive like 100,000 miles in five years, you most likely will not save any money with most current hybrids due to their high price tags. I'd rather pay a few more bucks at the pump each week.




RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By GhandiInstinct on 11/10/06, Rating: -1
RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Lujack on 11/10/2006 1:35:38 PM , Rating: 2
Nice analysis Ghandi.

Which car will be worth more after 100,000 miles--the hybrid or the standard version?

If there's no difference, then it's a 5 year payback. If there is, it's far less.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Anh Huynh on 11/10/2006 2:30:46 PM , Rating: 2
The original quote on The Car Connection was 10 years/200,000 miles. Either way after that amount of time the Hybrid would have a lower resale value due to a seven year battery life cycle, and those batteries are not cheap--roughly $7k.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Reflex on 11/10/2006 3:35:04 PM , Rating: 2
This is a point I often make, the 'gas savings' are more than gobbled up by the cost of replacement batteries, and those batteries are no friendlier on the environment either. The total environmental impact of a hybrid vehicle tends to be 25-50% higher than a standard gas car of roughly the same size.

These things are statements, not eco-friendly.

I have high hopes for hydraulic hybrids however, that makes a heck of a lot more sense for larger vehicles. Ford has demo'd a Excursion that gets 32mpg city using hydraulics for energy recapture...


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By number999 on 11/10/2006 7:36:36 PM , Rating: 4
quote:
total environmental impact of a hybrid vehicle tends to be 25-50% higher than a standard gas car of roughly the same size
When considering that the burning of gasoline produces 20 pounds of CO2 for every US 1 gallon used (various sites) I find this statement to be dubious, especially when considering the lifetime of the car. Comparing a Prius to a 26 MPG car (and how many cars do that well) over 100000 miles, the difference is 2300 gallons of gasoline which produces 46000 pounds of carbon dioxide, ideally of course.

The battery's most active component would be nickle which is highly valuable, especially in today's markets. Nickle also has the advantage of being more easily recyclable than say aluminum which forms strong bonds with other elements and must be purified using electrolysis (and lots of power). The battery very recyclable due to this fact. There is even an idea that the battery is leased, lowering the cost of the vehicle. Manufacturing/recycling pollution can at least be captured or ameliorated or processes can be used that are less polluting or use less pollution. Driving pollution can't, it goes in everyone's air.

Also, replacement batteries should not be really necessary. Properly engineered, there should be redundancy in the way the packs are connected as well as control circuitry telling which packs are dead. These systems are already used in Li-on systems. Another point is that these batteries are engineered to have mean lifespans in the 8+ years range (10+ in California). Actually the numbers are for minimum warrenty years, which means means lifspan is much greater than the number of warrenty years. It isn't a guarantee but then nothing actually in a car is supposed to last forever.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11812910/

Given the precise numbers quoted, I think it is fair to actually say where you get these figures for the environmental impact. Just saw the Simpson's episode where they go to Florida and visit EPCOT and they ride in the electric car of the future sponsored by the oil industry and lets just say the car isn't a great performer for obvious reasons. Just want to know where you got your numbers.

http://www.greenercars.com/byclass2.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_Low_Emission_Ve...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_vehicle
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/03/zaps_ameri...


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Reflex on 11/11/2006 12:16:44 AM , Rating: 2
I know that 2300 gallons of gasoline sounds like a lot, however when you get into manufacturing plastics and composites(petroleum products) as well as the electronics needed for the second motor on those cars, that deficit is more than made up for quickly. No, I do not have figures handy right now, I only have my own knowledge of thermodynamics, my fiance's knowledge as an environmental scientist, and her father's knowledge as a Chrysler engineer. The fact is that the increased use of plastics, plus the large amount of electronics significantly increases both the oil consumed directly by the product(in the form of structural materials) and the energy burned during manufacture. 2300 gallons is a drop in the bucket, honestly. You are also fairly dismissive of the batteries as an environmental hazard, a position that is quite strange because Li-Ion batteries are terrible environmentally(although not as bad as older ones).

BTW, no offense, but when you demand me to source this stuff and then you support your argument with Wikipedia and Greenercars(the first not an authoritative source, the second not a knowledgeable one) it makes your request seem a bit rediculous. I have learned already that people believe what they want to believe on this topic, regardless of if I bother to exaustively source everything or not. So I will state what I know and you can choose to believe it or not. BTW, I advise an energy committee for the Democratic Party in my state, and its amazing just how little is truly understood about energy deficits(no, they cannot be subsidized away) and thermodynamics in the environmental movement. Thier hearts are in the right place, but they really need a real education on the topic.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By doctor sam adams on 11/11/2006 2:00:24 AM , Rating: 2
Read the MSNBC article he links:

"“The number of failures has been really, really low,” says American Honda’s Juan Avilla. “We expect them to last the life of the vehicle.”

Toyota tells me that some of the original Prius models now have battery packs that have gone more than 300,000 miles.

BusinessWeek magazine reports that when the U.S. Department of Energy investigated hybrid batteries, it stopped its tests “when the capacity remained almost like new — after 160,000 miles.”

What will it cost to replace the batteries if they fail after the warranty expires? No one seems to know since that hasn’t been an issue yet. Manufacturers say they are trying to find a way to replace the defective cells without removing the entire battery pack. If they're successful, that would dramatically reduce the cost."

Not to mention that battery technology will improve if hybrids take off. Nanocapacitors, etc., or something in the "ten years away" category will likely be successful in improving energy storage technology as demand picks up.

As for sources, Wikipedia may not be as authoritative as a papal bull, but I've never found it to be rampantly untrustworthy, and it's pretty good about labeling articles containing questionable or biased information.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Reflex on 11/11/2006 8:20:48 AM , Rating: 3
Even assuming the batteries lived twice as long, it does not make up for the energy deficit or the waste problem(btw, all the extra electronics needed create a lot of chemical waste as well). If you want to increase mileage today, cleanly, without boosting the cost of your vehicle, you can do the same thing for the same price by simply buying a small diesel. A Jetta TDI gets roughly the same real world mileage, costs about the same as a Prius, and has no more manufacturing, electronics or other energy costs beyond any other vehicle.

Other bonuses are that you waste less oil in usage since oil changes are typically about every 12k miles in a diesel, and the engine life is basically unlimited with no toxic batteries needed.

Hybrids are interesting as a concept, but they are not a solution, even assuming you could get past all of the issues mentioned, its still a 2% solution, since it dosen't save all that much gas, and of the amount it saves, passenger cars are a small percentage of the transportation fuel totals, which are themselves less than half of the overall oil usage in this country(over 60% is used for plastics, fertiizer and other petrol products). If it could be done without costing us more energy overall, and without creating more toxic waste(both in the manufacture and eventual disposal), I'd be for it, but currently it cannot.

If people really wanted to make a statement they would do what Europe has been doing and move towards diesels. They run off of more fuel types more easily, are lower maintinence, last longer and are roughly 30% more efficient regardless of your driving pattern. And as of 07, have lower emmisions than most gas cars out there, including hybrids.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Zoomer on 11/11/2006 10:48:50 AM , Rating: 2
You can remanufacture 99% of the material of the batteries. The battery being dead is just a slight chemical imbalance. Some tweaks (using expensive eq.) would restore it to working order.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By number999 on 11/11/2006 3:48:37 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
both the oil consumed directly by the product(in the form of structural materials) and the energy burned during manufacture
The eco-type hybrids are usually lighter than normal cars or the same structurally (material-wise). The amount of energy used to manufacture it should be equivalent.

As for the plastics, it all depends on the types of plastic, their use, their feedstocks, and of course recyclability. The SmartCar, a BMW manufactured mini is supposed to be highly recyclable with replacable panels. Recycled, means less oil used.
http://www.thesmart.ca/index.cfm?id=4817
Weirdly enough, some plastic feedstocks can be replaced with ethyl esters, which are basically what bio-diesel is. This is old (40's)tech, though I'm not sure on the type of plastics it can be used for.

Still, 2300 gallons of gas for how much in additional plastic? Especially if the some of the plastic can be recycled. It doesn't quite balance out, I still think that it's worth it. And I took material science.

quote:
overall oil usage in this country

I think this web site says it all -
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/petroleumpr...
As can be seen, transportation swallows 13.6 billion barrels a day compared to 5.1 billion for industrial use in 2004 figures.

I do agree with a move towards diesels. Volkswagon released the TDI Lupo diesel in Europe. It got 75-80 MPG, which is astounding in a commercially produced car but there were pretty bad reviews about the quality and I think it's been removed from the market. I think with the move to low sulfur diesel, these types of cars should be able to enter the NAm the market. The caveate is that the Lupo is probably the limit that you can do with today's conventional ICE/Diesel tech.

If you want to get 100+ MPG, you're going to have to go higher tech, with more work. Steve Lapp, a professor in Ontario, got his Prius to get 100 MPG. His secret, put solar cells to charge the batteries. Excessive, yes, but hey it worked (you can also guess it cost alot). Also NA Prius' are hobbled. In Europe and Asia, there's a buttom to extend the electric mode of the car removed in the NAm market because it affects the battery warranty constraints. People have hacked it.

BTW, no offense back, but my references for example to greencars wasn't actually for arguements but for car milage stats. I hate going through the official gov't site, having to weed through it (again), yuck...(it's as if it's obtuse and obsure for a reason).

As for the Wikipedia, granted its not authoritative but it is reviewed by people on both side of the arguement openly, and for strictly factual information, is mostly correct. It also contains references to other articles and best of all is public and a fairly good place to start. Some of the more scientific journal sites are well, private and need to be specially accessed. They are also trying to get better peer reviews in. I put it in for people to look at for more info and to get a feel for the subject to start.

I really didn't even use it for any arguments. It's just when numbers are used I like to sort of see it, especially when it's not obvious where they are coming from. Even scientists get things wrong, that's what peer review is for -> review.

BTW, thanx for not biting my head off. Some people take critism way too personally on these blogs.

For this article though, what will probably happen is that hybrid tech will be co-opted by the manufacturers for little or no fuel savings while jacking up power and marketing it as green. Manufacturers make more money off the bigger more luxurious models per car than the smaller cars and there is a saturation point in how many cars the market can absorb.
http://www.hybridcenter.org/hybrid-watchdog-whats-...

Articles
100 MPG Car
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/how_to/...


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By number999 on 11/12/2006 4:32:46 PM , Rating: 2
Made a mistake
quote:
swallows 13.6 billion barrels a day compared to 5.1 billion for industrial use in 2004 figures
it should say million barrels a day. Jezz, what was I thinking.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By BillyBatson on 11/11/2006 6:00:27 AM , Rating: 2
$7k? what year did you look up the prices? last i read the batteries int he prius cost $1000 and the batteries in the civic cost $2000. granted these are not cheap prices but no where near $7k, also since they are good for at "least" 8 years, if you buy a hybrid today hopefully in 8 years when you need to replace them the cost to do so will be far less aand the batteries themselves will be smaller and more effecient. Then again that is assuming they still make the model battery your car needs lol


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By mindless1 on 11/11/2006 12:22:37 AM , Rating: 2
The hybrid will be more expensive to maintain and service, and worth less after 100K miles.

There is no payback, except maybe to the conscience of a deluded person, as those buying such a car and actually doing it as more than a mere token gesture will be few and far inbetween. The vast majority won't give up other modern conveniences that pollute or rely on non-renewable resources.

The key is what it's always been, for governments to step in and do everything necessary to cause alternative refuelling stations to appear close enough and frequently enough to be viable. This will be necessary to sell enough volume to drive down alternative product costs and increase the user knowledge base, parts base, service center base, etc.

In other words, it's not about the cars, it's about all those little gotchas we currently take for granted with gasoline powered cars. The current support base for alternative vehicles has to grow before the average consumer will buy one.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By Milliamp on 11/11/2006 5:43:14 AM , Rating: 2
Why focus on alternitave fuel cars when we still have a fosil fuel based power grids?

Second, you can't compare a 2,000 lb alternitave vehicle to a 3,500 gas powered car and call the technology more efficient.

And, it has been shown that Prius is better at EPA tests than real world driving. Many cars are, but the difference is greater with the Prius.

Personally, I think the gains with Hybrid and alternitave technology are exagerated.

I believe it is easier to make the grid clean becasue it does not have to be mobile.

But fossil fuels are not what it is really about is it? It is about looking down on the rest of the people in the world becasue you get to wear a hybrid sticker.

To many people in the US, that is worth every penny of that extra $10,000 sticker price.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow
By doctor sam adams on 11/10/2006 1:48:18 PM , Rating: 2
Uh... so why are they idiots? Because they spent extra money on a feature they wanted? What do you think about people driving Escalades? Ouch, on that scale the Bentley drivers must be subhuman.


RE: Heh...hybrids blow