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A full 2/3 of the high definition market will be universal players by 2012

The war between high definition formats is still raging and no one is ready to declare a winner yet. Blu-ray is currently outselling HD DVD for the most part, but it’s too early to count HD DVD out with strong sales and backing from some major motion picture studios.

Anyone old enough to recall the war between VHS and Betamax at the dawn of the VCR age can’t help but draw comparisons with the Blu-ray, HD DVD format war. In war for VCR format supremacy VHS won and relegated Betamax to niche use only. Many feel that today’s format war may never see a clear victory of one format over the other, and a recent study gives strength to that argument.

A new study from ABI Research looks at the growing market for high definition drives in the computer market. According to ABI Research the high definition market in computers will be worth $2 billion USD by 2012. ABI says that the vast majority of that market, a full two-thirds to be exact, will consist of universal high definition drives capable of reading both HD DVD and Blu-ray formats.

If ABI Research is correct, a market dominance by universal players will render the format war moot as consumers would not have reason to prefer one format over the other from a hardware perspective and it would reduce some of the competitive drive behind the competing formats to negotiate exclusives for one format over another is the majority of users could view both formats.

One could reasonably expect the home entertainment marketplace to look similar in the same time span. ABI says that its research shows that about 30% of computer users currently use DVDs for data storage and the storage capacity of modern DVD media is adequate for most storage needs.

In fact, only recently have rewritable HD DVD drives become available in notebook computers, while rewritable Blu-ray drives have been available for a while. ABI Research principal analyst Steve Wilson says, “ABI Research expects high-definition drives to bring in revenues of about $2 billion by 2012. Of that, about two-thirds will be accounted for by universal drives, which can play either format. Few universal drives are sold today, partly because of their higher price. But those prices will fall to about the same as Blu-ray players by 2009, and we forecast universal player sales to exceed Blu-ray the following year."

The currently low adoption rate of universal players, such as the Super Multi Blue drives from LG, is blamed on the significantly increased cost for the drives when compared to single format drives. Frequently consumers can buy individual Blu-ray and HD DVD drives for the same cost. ABI says it expects the price of Blu-ray players to drop in 2009 as the technology matures. This will mean cheaper Blu-ray lasers which will in turn make universal drives cheaper to build.

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Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By masher2 (blog) on 1/1/2008 7:09:45 PM , Rating: 2
> "ABI says that the vast majority of the market...will be compromised of universal high definition drives capable of reading both HD DVD and Blu-ray formats."

I've been predicting the same result for over a year now. The HD format war isn't going to be "won" by either side; the average consumer will simply buy a dual-format player, and neither know nor care which format their movies are in.

Here's a blog I wrote on the topic early last year:

http://www.dailytech.com/HD+Format+Wars+Declaring+...




RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By codeThug on 1/1/2008 7:33:51 PM , Rating: 1
That fact alone makes this war fundamentally different from the VHS/Beta debacle. People should quit comparing the two, get off the fence, and buy a combo reader.

The choice now becomes, who is offering the best content for the lowest price.


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By mindless1 on 1/1/2008 10:31:29 PM , Rating: 4
Except that HD-DVD only readers may remain less costly in the shorter term, and ultimately what content is available will depend on whether one format takes enough market share to make the other less attractive.

IMO, we can assume content will be made available for the perceived winning format, it's not as though content producers will be such snobs to ignore the profit potential of supporting customers' demands for either format.


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By mcnabney on 1/2/2008 9:52:46 PM , Rating: 4
Can you imagine Sony releasing HD-DVDs?

Me neither. Sony always reminds me of the kid who takes his ball, bat, and bases home if the other kids won't play his way.


By mindless1 on 1/3/2008 3:34:57 AM , Rating: 4
Yes I can, when you consider Sony's movie studio associations.

Do you deny that sony made VHS players?


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By Belard on 1/3/2008 7:34:44 AM , Rating: 3
But I don't agree with that.

The ONLY cheap HD-DVD players are the 1080i models from Toshiba which go for about $200~250. The $100~200 players are gone and were nothing more than the dumping of old-stock.

At Best Buy this Christmas, they were selling the SONY BR-Player for $300... quite a bit cheaper than Toshibas 1080p player. Currently WalMart is selling SONY for $348.

(From Best Buy)
# of BR-players to choose from = 8 reputable manufactures.
(SONY, Samsung, Sharp, Pioneer and Panasonic)

# of HD-DVD players = 3, from Toshiba ONLY. Prices are $300, $400 and $500... guess which ones have 1080p.

HEY GUYS - Just checked the prices at Walmart.com Philips Blu-ray player is now on the market. But what I also notice is that NO TOSHIBA players are listed, period.

As someoneone posted about the ONLY HD-DVD player (some junk made by some very off-brand company) "New statistics now indicate Blu Ray owns over 73% of U.S market, also 73% in Britain, and a whopping 95.2% in Australia!" I don't know where this info comes from... last info I have on the Japanese market, Blu-ray has over 90% of that market.

Let's see... 11+ available models from 7 companies vs 3 from 1 company. (Not including the PS3. Sharp sells a BR player on the market)

PS: newegg sells the sony for $299.
PS2: I do NOT include dual-players in the headcount.
PS3: $50 is not much of a savings from a 1080i player vs a 1080p player - especially when the $50 more expensive player has over 75% of the market.

I do NOT own any HiDef player, nor do I own an xbox or Playstation of any sort.

The HD war isn't over (Paramount accepting the bribe from Toshiba helped a lot), but with these numbers - who wants to bother buying a dual-format player or stores carring 2 formats of simular media? What if you want to take your BR disc to a friends home and he doesn't have a dual-format HD player? Back in the early 80s, there was Laser Disc vs. Video Disc... Laser Disc murdered Video disc because it was a vastly better format (but Video discs stored the 12" "DVD type disc" in a plastic caddy sleeve)...

Sorry, but the argument of cheaper players means nothing. If price sold more product, then Amiga computers would have more PC market than Microsoft/etc - back when they made computers in the 80s~90s...


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By omnicronx on 1/3/2008 9:33:13 AM , Rating: 2
Your whole post is BS!

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_...
--I own this player, your so called 'off-brand company' is just a repackaged Toshiba HD-A3. DT actually had an article on it in the past, but nice try.

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_...

The Venturer costs 189.99 (almost half the price of a BD player) and the toshiba costs 250. A far cry from the 300$ you mention. The venturer is also only $200 in Canada which is leaps and bounds lower than any other price of any other player.

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_...
Meanwhile the cheapest BD player costs 50 dollars less than a ps3.

You would also know by doing a little research or maybe reading older DT articles that 1080i vs 1080p makes little difference for high def players. 1080i for hddvd/BD is not the same as broadcast 1080i, the full native resolution is still being displayed as the frames are timesync'd and put back in perfect order by your TV's deinterlacer. (And don't give me the argument that better TV's really do look that much better, as a better TV should actually make less of a difference as the deinterlacer is probably better.

Ill end in telling you PRICE DOES MATTER! HD-DVD cheaper and continues to be cheaper than Blue-Ray. It's a well known fact about 65-70% of all BD players out there are PS3's and we all know what great attach rates they have been getting.
So next time please come in here with some better stats and maybe some proof, instead of saying something stupid that anyone can easily look up to prove you wrong.

P.S I was going to buy a 40GB PS3 this christmas until I found a $200 HD-DVD player at Walmart, a full $150 below any other high def player I have seen at normal prices in Canada. For me price mattered, and it swayed me from buying Blu-Ray, I am sure many other people are in the same boat.


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By Belard on 1/4/2008 9:19:48 AM , Rating: 1
No, my post is not BS.

I admit, there was some sort of ODD error in that now that Toshiba is listed.

But no... your OFF brand is still an OFF BRAND... it has a 90day warranty. Vs 1 year from most other companies (including Sony, Toshiba, Philips, etc). And while it maybe a re-badge Toshiba, there is most likely cheaper or missing parts... this is TYPICAL in the electronics industry - even within a name brand. Look it up. Hence, you can get low-cost and high cost motherboards from Asus that do the same thing... for the most part. Or a company may sell a lower-quality version of a VCR (whatever) to Mexico than the USA and give the Mexican market a shorter warranty period.

Quick google on Venturer is = LITTLE demand... from both Target and Walmart. People who buy $1500~$4000 HD-TVs are not going wet their pants on saving $0~100 on a no-name brand product.

Again, you say I am BSing - yet please show us the HUGE list of HD-DVD players... Oh yeah, Toshiba and re-badged low-Q bing Toshiba players. Doesn't change the fact there are over 10 available brands of Blu-Ray (not including LG's dual-format).

Oh, today I was in walmart. No Venturea on the shelf or listed. But they had the Toshiba A3 for $299... but next to it, the Sony for $288. I don't know why, but that is what's listed on the shelf.

The PS3, while is a BR player, is also a full blown console with a Hard Drive... its a pretty good deal considering that the CHEAPEST HD-DVD with 1080p is still $400, usually.

i vs p: Some say there is no difference. Some say that 1080p looks better, especially on BIG TVs (60" and larger)but none have said that 1080i looks better than 1080p.

PS: while many PS3 owners DO NOT watch BluRay titles on their console, the amount of PS3 sold up to know is around 7 million units. Compared to about 1 million Toshibas.

Facts remain... in titles sold, for every 1 HD-DVD sold, 3 Blu-Rays are bought - in pretty much every market.

HD-DVD Choices: 5
- Toshiba (x3)
- Venturera (limited)
- Xbox Add-on ($180 - required a the console)

Blu-Ray Choices: (13)
- Sony Players (x3)
- Sony PS-3 (x2 current models)
- Samsung (x2)
- Sharp
- Pioneer (x2)
- Philips
- Panasonic (x2)

Not including discontinued models from either side.

Coming soon: Marantz, Mitsubishi, Funai, Lie-On, Denon, Daewoo (I know) but kills venturea.


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By omnicronx on 1/4/2008 10:08:38 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Again, you say I am BSing - yet please show us the HUGE list of HD-DVD players... Oh yeah, Toshiba and re-badged low-Q bing Toshiba players. Doesn't change the fact there are over 10 available brands of Blu-Ray (not including LG's dual-format).
And amazingly all of those 'other' brands all sell for the same price 300-350+..
Wow.. what a great advantage, my mind has been changed.

As for the Off-Brand venturer player. Once again you dont know what you are talking about.. same parts except for the lcd display (which is better) and the casing. Other than that the components are almost exactly the same. Which is probably why I, along with many others have updated their firmware with the Toshiba HD-A3 firmware.

http://www.venturer.com/productimages/SHD7000Ventu...

http://images.bestbuy.com/BestBuy_US/images/produc...

Notice how they look exactly the same ?
quote:
PS: while many PS3 owners DO NOT watch BluRay titles on their console, the amount of PS3 sold up to know is around 7 million units. Compared to about 1 million Toshibas.
Who cares? The PS3 is not going to decide the fate of the next gen format, because unlike the PS2, its not in the living room of everyone in north America. Until Stand Alone systems become mainstream, all those numbers mean nothing anyways, you can not expect the PS3 alone to drive BD sales, and BD standalone sales are lagging compared to HD-DVD.

I am not advocating either format, each has its advantages and disadvantages. I personally do not trust the ongoing spec changes from sony. 1.0, 1.1, eventually 2.0, I just have no idea whats going to work, and what problems may arise. On the HD-DVD side, you still have to pay the same price as an entry level BD player to get 1080p, and BD has more movie studios on their side. Either way as I have said many times before, dual-format players will eventually become mainstream, and I really do not foresee either format going away in the near future.


By Belard on 1/8/2008 12:58:30 AM , Rating: 2
Compared to 9 months ago, the MSRP of the cheapest Toshiba was $500 (HD-A20) - same price as the 20GB PS3 back then...

Point: prices for ALL hardware is dropping. $0~75 price difference is not much of a deal breaker. As proven, the black-friday $99 HD-DVD players didn't do much damage to the blu-ray market.

Oh, so the Venturer is a major brand? Where do you take it for servicing?

quote:
Who cares? The PS3 is not going to decide the fate of the next gen format, because unlike the PS2, its not in the living room of everyone in north America.


Er... Toshiba has shipped out 100,000 HD-DVD players. There are more Blu-Ray players out there, NOT including PS3. And yes, the 7million PS3 *DO* make a difference. If 1/10th of them are used as Blu-Ray players, that's still 7x time user base over Toshiba.

And uh... are you saying that Toshiba *IS* in every living room? I don't own ANY Playstation...


By RamarC on 1/4/2008 9:37:25 AM , Rating: 2
omnicronx is right but i don't think the belard's post was complete bs.

holiday prices at best buy can't be used for comparison. (try and find a $200 pc with monitor and printer after dec 25th.) the lowest priced blu-ray player at best buy and circuit city now is $399. and you won't find one that's cheaper than sony's own player (except for a brief sale).

yes there are more vendors making blu-ray products, but they're practically identical. the distinction between bd players is more like buick vs. pontiac (80% same hardware) rather than honda vs. pontiac (90% different hardware).

the a3 is $200, the a30 is $250, and the 1080p a35 is usually $350. so the entire lineup is cheaper.

and the amiga analogy is completely lame. so even though amiga was cheaper, it didn't support the software that drove sales of pc's (lotus 1-2-3, wordperfect, and dBase). if it ran that software, then the pc industry might be completely different today. on the other hand, both bd and hd players play movies and their outputs are completely indistinguishable.

toshiba seems to be willing to go it alone (as far as major manufacturers go), but apple managed to carve out a niche for itself with the same tactic. i expect lg and samsung to start making hd players (since they already have the licenses to do so) and the marketplace will become more crowded.


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By nemoshotyany on 1/1/2008 7:38:14 PM , Rating: 5
Nice Prediction. Here have a cookie.


By roadrun777 on 1/3/2008 10:01:51 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Nice Prediction. Here have a cookie.


Is it an evil cookie?


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By AlexandertheBlue on 1/1/2008 9:51:15 PM , Rating: 3
I don't disagree, it is one of the things that I have been waiting for before jumping on the high def train.

However, it is possible that both high def formats will go the way of beta-max despite their higher quality. I see 2 reasons for this. The biggest is that for most people regular definition DVD is good enough. They don't care that the picture or the sound quality is better.

http://www.avrant.com/?p=218#more-218

The second reason is that we will likely see some form of downloadable/on-demand/non-physical format take over before either high def format becomes as ubiquitous as regular DVD.

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10-reas...

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10-more...

I admit that the first link is not an expensive or expansive survey but I do believe it is accurate because it mirrors conversations I've had with the people I work with and the people I go to school with.

The 2nd links are admittedly opinion pieces; however, they come from an individual who has quite a bit more experience with A/V issues than I do. I actually hope he is wrong, but I suspect he is right


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By masher2 (blog) on 1/1/2008 10:58:34 PM , Rating: 5
> "However, it is possible that both high def formats will go the way of beta-max despite their higher quality"

Possible, but doubtful. Remember that the "dual-format" players will all play standard DVDs as well. So once those players break the $100 barrier, why would anyone with an HDTV not buy in?

> "The second reason is that we will likely see some form of downloadable/on-demand/non-physical format take over "

Again, doubtful, from an infrastructure bandwidth if nothing else. It's going to be at least 10 years before a majority of the nation has the bandwidth to download HD content in near real-time. (and yes, I know *some* areas can already do it today. Those are pilot areas. Buildout takes time, especially in rural locations).

Also, don't forget there are consumer comfort issues with buying content without physical media. Many people want to own something physical for their money....especially when DRM issues will likely prevent that downloaded content from being easily backed up.

> "it is one of the things that I have been waiting for before jumping on the high def train."

Why wait? Your discs are going to be good regardless of which format you choose. You'll only be out the cost of the player regardless...and given you'll likely replace that player with a new model that costs somewhere in the $100 range, you'll really only losing that $100 by being an early adopter.

Assuming you already own an HD display or two, isn't $100 worth not having to wait another couple years for cheap dual-format players?


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By marvdmartian on 1/2/2008 9:55:28 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
Remember that the "dual-format" players will all play standard DVDs as well. So once those players break the $100 barrier, why would anyone with an HDTV not buy in?

How about people that already have an upconverting dvd player, that also has the divx capability, like the one I already bought for far less than the $100 price you're quoting. I have NO reason whatsoever at this time to upgrade, even though I have an HDTV. For me, the quality is more than good enough, and I feel as though the negative aspects of the HD players and disks (cost, cost, and oh, did I mention cost??) far outweigh the positive, for me at least.

quote:
It's going to be at least 10 years before a majority of the nation has the bandwidth to download HD content in near real-time. (and yes, I know *some* areas can already do it today. Those are pilot areas. Buildout takes time, especially in rural locations).

The only thing I have to counter that argument with, is how does the population density compare with the areas that already have that bandwidth capability, or soon will? I'd bet they run hand in hand, which makes your point lose some of it's power. Add to that the fact that the rural areas that don't have the high bandwidth capability also probably don't have cable, and are receiving their tv signals by either using dish satellite (which can handle higher bandwidth, though by no means as high as cable), or the old fashioned OTA "rabbit ears", and are unlikely to switch any time soon. Folks out in the sticks really don't care whether they have high speed internet or not, which is likely one of their compelling reason for living out in the sticks.
My point is, the high density areas will be the high bandwidth areas, thus satisfying a high percentage of the population. The rest will be just as happy with what they already have offered to them.

quote:
Assuming you already own an HD display or two, isn't $100 worth not having to wait another couple years for cheap dual-format players?


NO. See my first argument. Sorry, but I have no intention of adopting either format, for my tv or for my computer. At least not until the price gets to a fraction of what we're seeing now (and a pretty small fraction at that!). Why should I buy now, when really the only incentive you're offering up is a faster drop in the price???


RE: Its becoming obvious to everyone...
By omnicronx on 1/2/2008 12:28:47 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
How about people that already have an upconverting dvd player, that also has the divx capability, like the one I already bought for far less than the $100 price you're quoting. I have NO reason whatsoever at this time to upgrade, even though I have an HDTV....... etc etc.. NO. See my first argument. Sorry, but I have no intention of adopting either format, for my tv or for my computer. .... blah blah blah
I see a lot of 'I's in your statements, so I would like to remind you from the beginning the world does not revolve around your personal preference.

I would like to start off with your comment about upconverting DVD players. Most people do not have one as they already have a DVD player, and I noticed most people found little point in upgrading to something that their TV does marginally well anyways if they have an HDTV.

I personally found the difference between DVD and HD-DVD/BD astounding if you have a TV that is 37' or larger.

As for your cost statement, its great that you think this will be the reasoning high def formats will fail, but the high introductory prices for HD-DVD/BD should not surprise you. DVD's used to cost just as much, same can be said of VHS if you include inflation. Prices will go down as it becomes less of a niche market. I guess you skipped a few too many grade 11 economics classes.

quote:
My point is, the high density areas will be the high bandwidth areas, thus satisfying a hig