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Michael Hoffman (Blog) - December 13, 2007 11:44 AM

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6 comment(s) - last by NEOCortex.. on Dec 14 at 12:14 PM

A house after the 1868 quake (Source: Bancroft Library)

Next year could bring about the next big earthquake for the Bay Area

San Francisco Bay Area residents are used to enduring earthquakes, but scientists warn next year could produce an earthquake with the ability to devastate thousands of Bay Area residents. The fault located in Hayward, California, "the most dangerous urban fault in America," has a 140-year cycle in which it ruptures, and guess what - next year will be the 140th year. To be more exact, scientists expect October 21, 2008 is the anniversary that could cause a large amount of destruction.

The Hayward Fault is another hot topic during the American Geophysical Union conference currently underway at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. Even though other faults in the Bay Area -- San Andreas and Calaveras are prime examples -- get much more media attention, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) warns the Hayward fault is a major "ticking time bomb."

Several initiatives have popped up to help inform people in the Bay Area about the ramifications and damage caused by the last major earthquake in 1868. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance aims to help remind people that even though it is possible for the anniversary to pass without a major earthquake, we must always be aware of the power of the Hayward Fault.

Aside from the anniversary of when it last ruptured, scientists have a renewed interest because it is longer and may be connected to the Calaveras fault -- there is a remote possibility both faults could rupture at the same time. If both rupture at the same time, which could be a worst-case scenario, it adds an extra 25 miles of fault line.

In 2003, it was agreed that the Hayward Fault is the next Bay Area fault that is most likely to produce a 6.7 or higher earthquake on the Richter scale. Some scientists during the show are predicting the fault could potentially produce an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 higher, which is the equivalent of 50 megatons of TNT.

Scientists are particularly interested in the Hayward fault due to the heavily populated cities of Berkeley, Fremont, Hayward and Oakland being in danger if a powerful earthquake does occur.

Even if the Fault ruptures and doesn't produce the earthquake some scientists have been dreaming about studying, will you be ready?

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Reminds me of what I've read about the New Madrid fault

By marvdmartian on 12/13/2007 3:39:40 PM , Rating: 2

For those unfamiliar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Fault

It's utterly amazing how much energy can build up, and suddenly be released, by these fault lines. I remember back in 89, when the Loma Prieta earthquake hit, how they talked about the Hayward fault line, and how it would devastate the east bay area especially (tho any earthquake in that area is going to have widespread damage).

The New Madrid fault line has gone almost 200 years since it's last big quake, and while wikipedia mentions a 300-500 year timeline, I've also heard scientists talk that it's ready to go now, and could release at any time. If it's a biggy, we could possibly see almost complete devastation of Memphis, amongst other places.

Let's face it, ya gotta have respect for a fault line that caused the Mississippi River to flow backwards, even if it was only a temporary thing!

RE: Reminds me of what I've read about the New Madrid fault

By OSD237 on 12/13/2007 5:49:51 PM , Rating: 2

The New Madrid Faults are totally different. The Hayward fault appears to be plates sliding past each other. The New Madrid earthquakes are more or less unknown. I agree the amount of energy given off was colossal, but the area affected was far greater than you would expect to see for a comparable sized fault based earthquake. As wikipedia points out its an intra plate earthquake.

Just like the Hawaiian volcanoes arnt like Krakatoa or Tambora, the Californian and New Madrid Earthquakes are different in almost everything but name.

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RE: Reminds me of what I've read about the New Madrid fault

By MonkeyPaw on 12/13/2007 10:53:18 PM , Rating: 2

Yeah, anyone remember Ivan Browning? He predicted a major earthquake on the New Madrid fault back on December 3rd, 1990. I remember it well, because we discussed it in grade school "just in case." On "D day," half the kids didn't show up for school--and we lived just outside St. Louis. Much to our surprise, nothing happened that day.

Oh, and if DT needs a fun picture for this article, I suggest a picture of May Day or Max Zorin from "A View to a Kill." They actually call out the Hayward Fault as part of "Project Main Strike." =D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone

Check near the bottom. ;)

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RE: Reminds me of what I've read about the New Madrid fault

By NEOCortex on 12/14/2007 12:14:55 PM , Rating: 3

Goodbye bay area. I'll miss you.....

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Standards

By Ringold on 12/13/2007 8:07:44 PM , Rating: 2

Here in Florida, in the wake of Hurricane Andrew, which in Homestead made Katrina look like a mild summer thunderstorm, standards for home construction were made mandatory for the whole state. At my parents last house, even the screen around the pool was certified to take a Category 3 on the chin. Now more people are killed after the event as they try to take on downed trees and whatnot. Man vs giant oak tree, some times the tree wins.

In California, since it's no secret the ground occasionally decides to move around, are semi-recently constructed homes and buildings likewise built to standards meant to take, say, a 7 on the richter scale? If so, while I know it'd still be a huge event, but.. at least it wouldn't be the end of the world. If not many current buildings could absorb it, though, well... that would explain then why it's brought up so often I suppose.

And what about insurance? Does homeowners cover it, and if so, are they charging rates such that it seems like they expect to be eating losses, or has California nationalized it?

Just questions to try to frame the size of the potential disaster.

On a related note, this may bode well for infrastructure companies stocks. ;)

RE: Standards

By kamel5547 on 12/14/2007 12:38:20 AM , Rating: 2

There are more recent building codes addressing earthquake resistance. That being said many many many building pre-date those codes. THe number of hospitals that do not meet code is mind-boggling alone.When you look at it, the problem is buildings are generally not retrofitted unless they are torn down or fall down, thus there are many buildings that will collapse. One would need only to look at the destruction caused by the LA Northridge quake for an example.

Truth be told in the past fire (following a quake) caused as much (if not more) property damage as the earthquake itself.

Homeowners insurance generally only covers fire, with most other conditions being excluded (like floods, earthquakes, wind) and requiring a seperate policy (which are available). TO be honest everyone is betting that the feds or state would bail them out in the event of a major quake.

On a related note, most of the infrastructure companies are on a tear as of the last couple years ;)

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