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Natives were forced to settle in unstable mud flats in the 1950s, are now paying the price

Yup'ik Inuits who inhabit villages 400 miles south of the Bering Strait today live much as their ancestors did hundreds of years ago, fishing and hunting for game, albeit with some new modern conveniences.  But that way of life is being threatened by a changing landscape.

I. Erosion Issues Hit Inuit Town Hard

Heavy flow from the Ninglick River, which wraps around the Yup'ik village of Newtok on three sides, has been removing 83 feet (~25 m) of land per year [source], a process climatologists blame on climate change. The village, which is home to 350 people and 63 homes, today is at a crossroads.

The US Army Corps of Engineers said in a 2009 report [PDF] that the end of Newtok is inevitable; they say that the highest point in the town (the local schoolhouse, which stands on 20-foot pilings) will be underwater by 2017 and that there's nothing that can be done.

Newtok, AK
Newtok, Alaska [Google Maps]

There has been some confusion about the fate of Newtok when this happens.  For example the Guardian, a top UK paper, reports:

If Newtok can not move its people to the new site in time, the village will disappear. A community of 350 people, nearly all related to some degree and all intimately connected to the land, will cease to exist, its inhabitants scattered to the villages and towns of western Alaska, Anchorage and beyond.

The comment glosses over the fact that there are active plans by the villagers to relocate the village; hence the story's title -- "America's First Climate Refugees" -- while not that much worse than other titles on the topic, is decidedly alarmist.

Other nations bordering the Arctic are having fewer issues; at today's meeting of Arctic-bordering nations in Sweden (The Arctic Council), climate change is not expected to be a top topic of discussion.

II. A Big Mess Caused by Big Government

Still some of Alaska's more than 180 native communities may face tough decisions as the local permafrost melts.  While historically climate change has been a reality of planet Earth since the time of the dinosaurs, many villages may face tough decisions adapting to this reality of Mother Earth.

The melting is changing hunting conditions, and in villages like Newtok, is worsening erosion problems.

One problem facing the villagers is lack of transportation.  For Newtok -- 480 miles west of Anchorage -- moving or leaving the village is not as simple as jumping in the SUV and rumbling out of town.  There are no roads going into Newtok; the closest doctor, road, or gas station is 100 miles away.  The closest transportation of any kind is the small planes that fly into and out of Bethel, roughly a 60-mile hike away.

Newtok village
The only way into or out of Newtok is by snowmobile or by foot. [Image Source: Guardian]

One thing the Guardian's piece does get right is that American federal government's interference with tribal life has created this mess.

The term "climate refugees" is somewhat ironic, given that the Yup'ik were nomadic by nature, migrating over the permafrost.  In the 1950s the U.S. government told the Yup'ik that their nomadic lifestyle was no longer acceptable, they had to settle in one location so their children could go to school.  The Yup'ik begrudgingly accepted, settling in Kayalavik, a village of sod huts, farther north.

But when Alaska became a state in 1959, federal officials began to pressure the Yup'ik to relocate, as the Kayalavik village was harder for supply barges to access.  Eventually the ill-fated decision was made to relocate the tribe to Newtok -- a seasonal stopping place for the tribe's late-summer berry picking.

Larry Hartig, a state government official heading The Alaskan Commission on Environmental Conservation, comments, "The places are often where they are because it was easy to unload the building materials and build the school and the post office there.  But they weren't the ideal place to be in terms of long-term stability and it's now creating a lot of problems that are exacerbated by melting permafrost and less of the seasonal sea ice that would form barriers between the winter storms and uplands."

III. Government Moves Sluggishly To Fix the Mess it Made

The issues with the mud flats site did not begin to pop up until the 1990s when erosion began to intensify.

Now the government faces the sticker shock of the cost to move the village to the site proposed in a 2007 resolution -- Newton Island, a stable volcanic island across the river.  The cost of the move is estimated at $130M USD and thus far state and federal officials are hesitant to pony up that much money, despite creating the problem in the first place.  Still they have provided funds for initial construction, which should be enough to enact some necessary structures; workers could begin building this year.

Climate change in Alaska is somewhat of a regional phenomena; the area is warming twice as fast as the rest of the U.S.  There's a good deal of stress on the local ecosystem, but wildlife are adapting -- moose are migrating into caribou country; grizzly bears are mating with polar bears as their ranges overlap.  But humans are finding it harder to adapt.

Comments Nathan Tom, a Yup'ik villager, "The snow comes in a different timing now. The snow disappears way late. That is making the geese come at the wrong time. Now they are starting to lay their eggs when there is still snow and ice and we can't go and pick them.  It's changing a lot. It's real, global warming, it's real."

Newtok village
Newtok villagers like Sabrina Warner struggle to stay optimistic amid the midst the government has created. [Image Source: Guardian]

His partner (wife) Sabrina Warner had a Yup'ik mother and relocated from Anchorage to be with Tom in 2011.  She recalls, "It's scary thinking about summer coming.  I don't know how much more is going to erode – hopefully not as much as last year.  When I first got here the land used to be way out there.  Now that doesn't exist any more. There is no land there any more.  Two more years, that's what I'm guessing. About two more years until it's right up to our house."

The rising waters have also created flooding in many buildings, making a mess.  The landfill has been flooding and raw human waste sewage is spewing up from storage sites.  The local water treatment site has been condemned and shuttered.

IV. Villagers are Hopeful About New Town Site

Tom is hopeful that the relocation will be carried out quickly, but he's bought a tent for his family (including his grandmother who relies on oxygen to survive) to live in, in case the house is lost before a replacement is built.  He comments, "A few years ago, they said next year. And then last year they said next year. And next year, they are probably going to say next year again.  It's picking up.  I'm not afraid any more. The erosion is really fast. I know the state is going to deal with it pretty fast. They are not going to leave us hanging there."

He's been training for construction.

Mammoth tusk
Melting is exposing valuable mammoth tusks, a bounty for villagers.
[Image Source: National Geographic]

At the end of the day even the skeptics must acknowledge that the world is warming and that some of it may be caused by man.  But flatlining temperatures over the last decade have shown us that the predicitions of doomsday "runaway warming" were likely alarmist exagerrations.  At the end of the day most of mankind's warming problems, like Newtok, are much like other non-warming problems -- the byproduct of an intrusive federal government bureaucracy.

But on an optimistic note, even the mess in Newtok has some upsides.  The melting is exposing new fossil fuel resources and lost mammoth tusks, which sell for thousands of dollars on the black market due to their popularity with carvers and collectors.

Sources: Guardian UK, Government Accountability Office

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Still trying to keep the lie going?
By TheEinstein on 5/15/2013 11:25:04 AM , Rating: 5
Sinking Islands! Plate Techtonics
Polar Ice Caps Melting Antartic record size/amount and NASA evidence Artic is stable
Temperatures are rising shows they are recorded badly
The Polar Bears! Worlds leading Polar Bear expert says 95% (or so) of the populations of the bear are growing
The forests! There is more trees now than 100 years ago, 200 years ago, and even 300 years ago.
Temperatures really are rising! Even all the 'scientists' who claimed this are running from this due to near 20 years of flat line
People will starve! Famine! If global warming did happen we could grow more food and easier as well.
Tornadoes and Hurricanes! Recently records have been set for the LOWEST number of each...
Birds are going extinct! Blame kittens and windmills, kthxbai
Oil is bad! That oil will be used regardless, you cannot stopit, it WILL BE USED!
Earthquakes from fracking! Not only a farce, but a badly tried one. Heck if anything if we could trigger small Earthquakes we could save trillions of dollars and millions of lives!
My water lights on fire It does that in area's not fracked.
Oil spills are bad! We could stop a lot of natural caused oil spills by drilling.... just saying...
A lot of universities and scientists say it is true! And CERN and a lot of scientists who do not rely upon a lie for funding say it is not true... your point?
Record fires! Because you stopped logging, let undergrowth grow to bad levels, and don't let fire trails be made anymore?
If we don't do something and it is real, we will regret it! I regret many things, but not my laughing at a tinfoil hat strawman.
The Consensus... Was a lie... most scientists where making comments that were redacted from the final documents. Those who were not invited also had issues. The numbers are actually on my side.
The U.N. says so! And Syria was head of the Human Rights Commission, Iran is going to be in charge of the U.N. anti-weapons smuggling forum, and do I need to really go on?
Ummm... oil is peaking? Nope... the U.S. has more oil than ever even considered possible, other nations are now realizing huge and vast sums that they did not look for previously. We can push on for four hundred plus more years.
Smart measures will help and wont hurt the economy! Semi trucks cost $150,000 now instead of $100,000... all due to one EPA mandate.
You suck! Truth hurts, live with it.

RE: Still trying to keep the lie going?
By TheEinstein on 5/15/13, Rating: 0
RE: Still trying to keep the lie going?
By CountZero on 5/15/13, Rating: -1
RE: Still trying to keep the lie going?
By Donkey2008 on 5/15/2013 5:08:10 PM , Rating: 3
"It puts the lotion on its hands..."

Man, you sound like a real head case. I really hope you don't own body armor and a Batman costume.

RE: Still trying to keep the lie going?
By TheEinstein on 5/15/2013 11:45:20 PM , Rating: 2
no body armor, no fire arm, no costumes, and no tinfoil hat.

yet your post is entirely useless.. no content worth even debating...

where is your mojo? Where is your stunning revelations?

Hows this for a revelation... The only reason for starvation in this world is personal choice or a nations leadership.

By mi1400 on 5/16/2013 1:19:12 AM , Rating: 1
Most people are stupid here or dishonest... Poles are also shifting place... so if u all live like obidiant children... those places will still melt and disasters will still happen... The spot/land under north pole ice was never always the same piece of land under that north pole in time.

By TheEinstein on 5/16/2013 6:40:38 AM , Rating: 2
Ahhh the Donkey cannot come out and play? Scared to throw barrels at me and thump your chest?

How about you let the grownups talk science while you listen and learn?

This post brought to you by "The Chevy Volt loses Cheverolet money, is subsidized at not just the manufactorer but at submanufactorers and their submanufactorers, and costs more in total than a Testerosa does. That and the only way it is in production still is because Obama is forcing Government Agencies and the military to purchase it in mass quantities"

By Vonrikken on 5/15/2013 5:31:47 PM , Rating: 2
The Einstein? You don't sound conceited or like a conservative puppet at all... Your not impressing anyone here, move along

RE: Trolls
By KCjoker on 5/15/2013 5:58:38 PM , Rating: 2
Problem for you is you ignore his facts.

RE: Trolls
By TheEinstein on 5/15/2013 11:39:58 PM , Rating: 2
This is just a forum nick because I like math and... interesting science...

I also like debunking silly fake science, like cloaking machine crapola.

But do not get me wrong, I am changing the world. My strategy will be a big bounce for the Tea Party, timed with this Obama-nation Scandals... Sic Tyranus and Viva La Tea Party!

RE: Trolls
By Vonrikken on 5/16/2013 5:46:19 PM , Rating: 2
You are a kook that no one on these back water forums takes seriously. You obviously suffer from delusions of grandeur. The tea party is minority of kooks that will continue to be ignored, just like you.

RE: Trolls
By TheEinstein on 5/17/2013 4:49:20 AM , Rating: 2

Ohio we took on and beat down on the Establishment.

S. Carolina a stealth campaign was done and we took over in some regions.

In Texas we fought hard and won some serious victories

In Arizona the McCain followers were defeated and the State Party belongs to us.

My new strategy will make the difference in dozens of States where we will take over. Reince Prebius has no future, the Party will be ours. The Tea Party is just beginning.

Time and Tide
By drycrust3 on 5/15/2013 5:55:15 PM , Rating: 2
Heavy flow from the Ninglick River, which wraps around the Yup'ik village of Newtok on three sides, has been removing 83 feet (~25 m) of land per year [source], a process climatologists blame on climate change.

This sounds like classic erosion, and as such it may well be that classic erosion hindering techniques can be used. While that may not actually stop the disappearance of the island, it could change it enough to take away the immediate urgency. Since this island is actually in the mouth of a river, then one must expect river flows to be an important factor regarding the existence of the island.
It may well be the island was created by the sediment carried by the river, but that something has now changed with the result that the island is disappearing instead of being built up.
Unfortunately the gloss of "Global Warming" could well actually hinder this situation because when people have been told by experts that their situation is inevitable because you can't stop the earth getting warmer then they focus on trying to relocate and don't consider trying to fix the problem.
As Jason said, the choice of the location was done by bureaucrats for political expediency and not with a longterm mindset. The problem, though, is erosion affects everything. Even the villages first choice of a hill could have been undone by lack of erosion control.

RE: Time and Tide
By dragonbif on 5/17/2013 2:01:23 PM , Rating: 2
I used to live in this part of the world and I can tell you the land is always changing. The land is sand and ice, the water moves the rivers every summer. There are several other villages that were moved 30 years ago because of this same problem. Bethel solved their problem next to the river by cutting the ice in the river in the winter and putting rocks at the bottom. They also put in a steal wall along the river.

Other places that have had the same problem:
and more

However unlike some of the others that only had to have part of the village moved Newtok is in a really bad spot. The river binds right into Newtok. The cost of putting in a wall would be way too much because you would have to start way before the bend. One thing that they do not tell you is the other side of the river is the bank is getting bigger so the river is just shifting.
Now one thing that is true is the permafrost is getting thinner but not by much. This would not be the problem they are facing.

Note: I have been to Newtok however it has been about 6 years. I live down here in the lower states now.

RE: Time and Tide
By TheEinstein on 5/18/2013 1:20:29 PM , Rating: 2
A great post... wish it had been done early in the existance of this thread.

I remember once mapping a stream in my forestry clas, there was proof the stream had done similar stuff as to what you are describing. water will always take the easy route.

Here's the plan
By stm1185 on 5/15/2013 5:25:01 PM , Rating: 2
Buy up thousands of Foreclosed homes in lets say Stockton, CA or another city, renovate them, and give them to the Inuits, then open up business loans and tax incentives to drive job employment, and you end up with a reinvigorated city, and a population no longer at risk of being washed away.

RE: Here's the plan
By tng on 5/17/2013 4:58:02 PM , Rating: 2
quote: lets say Stockton, CA
Really? Move these people from a climate that rarely gets above 50F and throw them into some place like Stockton where in the Summer it can get to 100F+? If they don't die of heat stroke they just may get shot by all of the local crime...

By Ammohunt on 5/15/2013 10:46:40 AM , Rating: 1
The earth has been warming since at least the last ice age..i for one am glad for it.

RE: Fact
By Omega215D on 5/15/2013 3:32:04 PM , Rating: 2
How is this modded down? The Earth has seen much warmer global temps along with disastrous cooler temps.

Oh and we had a Little Ice Age which wasn't all that long ago in big timeline.

It's actually getting colder in Alaska
By Tony Swash on 5/15/2013 11:48:24 AM , Rating: 2
The irony of this report appearing now is that Alaska has recently been experiencing markedly colder winters and the recent winter has been remarkable cold with many cold temperature records broken.

Residents of Fairbanks, Alaska, are enduring the harshest cold spell in more than a decade. Temperatures at the Fairbanks International Airport recently plummeted to 51 below zero. Fairbanks is known for its frigid winters, but temperatures typically only drop to 16 below zero this time of year. The recent low low is actually not far from the record low of 58 below zero from 1933. January in Fairbanks this year was the coldest January since 1971 and one of the top ten coldest on record.

Meanwhile the famous Nenana River ice breakup, marked by a well attended local event, is near the top three latest dates in 97 years of contest.

This is a pretty good overview of the reality behind this silly scare story

RE: It's actually getting colder in Alaska
By bah12 on 5/15/13, Rating: -1
By TheEinstein on 5/15/2013 2:57:25 PM , Rating: 2
I think Mick will never learn even though his comrades are fleeing the sinking ship as quickly as they can. the efforts of the few Conservatives in Europe to map weather stations is bearing fruit... soon the evidence a vast majority of weather stations are badly placed and all information from them skewed upwards... will start paying dividends.

Tied with plans I hope to get done and this goose is COOKED.

Regardless the evidence keeps mounting... let mick keep poking his finger in a hole in the dam as the dam starts to collapse around him

By hubb1e on 5/15/2013 12:53:05 PM , Rating: 2
"At the end of the day even the skeptics must acknowledge that the world is warming and that some of it may be caused by man."

Can this statement be any more vague?

"Vista runs on Atom ... It's just no one uses it". -- Intel CEO Paul Otellini

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