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Paul Allen  (Source: moregoodfoundation.org)
Paul Allen's statistical analysis says Google+ achieved 7.3 million users July 10, and will reach 10 million users today

If the internet is the wild west, then Mark Zuckerberg is a cowboy who has mastered quite a bit of the terrain with 750 million visitors to his Facebook saloon. But, as seen in many old western films, there's occasionally a showdown accompanied by the cliché, "This town isn't big enough for the both of us." While Facebook hasn't met its match quite yet, Google+ may be well on its way. 

Google+ launched only two weeks ago, but in its short time on the web (and despite its invitation-only testing phase it's currently in) the social network is blowing up, and many predict that it will be a suitable rival for Facebook. 

According to Paul Allen, founder of Ancestry.com, Google+ achieved 7.3 million users on July 10. His statistical analysis also estimates that Google+ will acquire 10 million users today, and if Google keeps the invitation button active, it will reach 20 million users by this weekend. 

"My model is simple," said Allen. "I start with U.S. Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates.

"My ratio is 1 U.S. user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven't updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time."

While Allen works on updating his method, Google+ continues to expand and the question on many minds is whether Google will pull the plug on the invitation button at some point or not, eventually limiting the number of users that can access the field testing phase. But whether it does or not, many current users have expressed their fondness of the fresh-faced social network.

"I predict that Google+ will go from 0 to 100,000,000 users faster than any other service in history," said Bill Gross, founder and CEO of technology incubator Idealab. "The service is great. It is timely. People are engaging with it like crazy. There are rumors that there are already 4.5 million people. That might be high. It might be as low as 1 million, or even lower, but my guess is that it's more than 1 million people already.

"The next year will tell. Will there be bumps in the road? Sure. Will Facebook and Twitter fight back with more innovation? Of course! But I'm saying that Google+ is already good enough, and the team on Google+ is being so responsive in a way that makes me believe they have a real winner here."



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hmm..
By Eduardo9240 on 7/12/2011 1:59:25 PM , Rating: 2
is it too late to get an invitation?? :)




RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:12:44 PM , Rating: 3
sent you an invite


RE: hmm..
By Digimonkey on 7/12/2011 2:18:58 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite as well? Would appreciate it greatly.


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:33:08 PM , Rating: 3
invite sent


RE: hmm..
By Eduardo9240 on 7/12/2011 2:21:48 PM , Rating: 2
Thanks!!


RE: hmm..
By cherryp00t on 7/12/2011 2:44:45 PM , Rating: 2
May I get an invite as well??

Thanks!!


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:06:17 PM , Rating: 3
i sent your invite


RE: hmm..
By cherryp00t on 7/12/2011 3:21:35 PM , Rating: 2
thank you!


RE: hmm..
By hopsandmalt on 7/13/2011 8:24:53 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite? Would be very much appreciated! Thanks!


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:03:29 PM , Rating: 2
Hey sorry to be a 'me too' kinda guy but any spare invites left? Been signed up for an invite for ages with no joy.

thanks in advance!


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:05:08 PM , Rating: 3
yoo don't have your gmail account listed under your DT profile so I don't know your email address


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:05:44 PM , Rating: 2
hi just changed it to hotmail email - does it have to be gmail?


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:06:41 PM , Rating: 3
yes it has to be gmail cause it is connected with your google account


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:08:49 PM , Rating: 2
oh I have other google accounts (analytics, adwords etc) that use non gmail accounts so assumed it would be ok. Will switch/send gmail account. Thanks a million.


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:11:45 PM , Rating: 2
have changed it to my gmail - thanks again


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 3:07:29 PM , Rating: 2
i tried your hotmail just in case though


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:28:08 PM , Rating: 2
hi again - nothing in hotmail so looks like you were right Gmail it is. Nothing there either but have added gmail to my DT profile now if you could resend. Really appreciate it sorry for the hassle.


RE: hmm..
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 4:06:52 PM , Rating: 2
ok i sent it to google one now


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 4:18:37 PM , Rating: 2
thanks. got it. :)


RE: hmm..
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:07:54 PM , Rating: 2
my email is now showing - I have a gmail but don't like to use it on blogs etc for spamfear™ but I'll change it to gmail if required. thanks.


RE: hmm..
By mkennow on 7/12/2011 3:31:08 PM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite?


RE: hmm..
By leejunfan on 7/12/2011 3:38:18 PM , Rating: 2

Can I please get an invite? I know this is starting to get old for you.


RE: hmm..
By brshoemak on 7/12/2011 3:59:55 PM , Rating: 2
Any invites left by chance?


RE: hmm..
By Dmorales12 on 7/12/2011 4:36:15 PM , Rating: 2
Do you mind if I can get an invite as well been trying for days now


RE: hmm..
By jpatracar on 7/13/2011 10:10:49 AM , Rating: 2
Hey may I get an invitation also!?..plz!??! =)


RE: hmm..
By wilzu on 7/13/2011 10:24:04 AM , Rating: 2
If there are any extra invitations floating around, I'd appreciate one.

Thank you!


RE: hmm..
By topher.de.chris on 7/14/2011 9:12:26 AM , Rating: 2
Could you send an invite my way please? I would <3 you forever.


RE: hmm..
By mwhitley30 on 7/13/2011 8:17:05 PM , Rating: 2
Could I possibly get an invite????? Puhleeeeee?????


facebook sucks
By smokedturkey on 7/12/2011 1:24:38 PM , Rating: 2
I can hardly wait to get into Google+. Could someone invite me please?




RE: facebook sucks
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 1:39:31 PM , Rating: 2
I sent you an invite


RE: facebook sucks
By kr1s69 on 7/12/2011 2:47:10 PM , Rating: 2
Any chance of sending me an invite?


RE: facebook sucks
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:48:36 PM , Rating: 2
invite sent, man im getting tired of this lol


RE: facebook sucks
By kr1s69 on 7/12/2011 2:49:36 PM , Rating: 2
Thanks!

i'll repay the favour to some others on here :)


RE: facebook sucks
By DHLC on 7/12/2011 3:38:23 PM , Rating: 2
If you are "paying it forward" and have received your invite I would love an invite as well! Thanks!!!!


RE: facebook sucks
By pro5 on 7/12/2011 3:51:06 PM , Rating: 2
Agreed.. I'll send some out IF i ever get one myself :)


RE: facebook sucks
By alp1n3 on 7/16/2011 5:32:32 AM , Rating: 2
Could I possibly get an invitation as well?? Many thanks!


RE: facebook sucks
By DHLC on 7/13/2011 2:06:40 PM , Rating: 2
Is it still possible to get an invite?

Thanks!


RE: facebook sucks
By MJP2000 on 7/12/2011 3:32:19 PM , Rating: 2
Wow, I love the generosity going on here! Any more invites? I've been waiting patiently but I'm getting anxious.

Thanks!


RE: facebook sucks
By smokedturkey on 7/12/2011 8:16:10 PM , Rating: 2
Thank you Caleb, you the man! :)


RE: facebook sucks
By Moishe on 7/14/2011 3:33:49 PM , Rating: 2
I could use an invite as well.... thanks in advance to anyone!


Yep
By dagamer34 on 7/12/2011 11:19:14 AM , Rating: 2
It's growing fast enough that had Google not had an invite process, it certainly would have crashed by now. Let's not forget that Facebook itself initially limited accounts by restricting users to .edu addresses (when Facebook was much better then) before opening it up to the general public.




RE: Yep
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 11:21:17 AM , Rating: 5
And it is definitely a good product, IMO. My wife got mad at me for deactivating Facebook and switching completely to Google+. All my friends are on Google+ now so it makes no difference to me.


RE: Yep
By kleinma on 7/12/2011 11:49:01 AM , Rating: 2
Until there is some sort of unified model to allow all these social networks to talk to each other, it is just going to be too complicated to pick one over the other, based on features, what people you know use what service, etc..


RE: Yep
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 11:50:34 AM , Rating: 2
Which is very true. I only had 30 friends on facebook and all are on Google+ so it's easy for me to switch not easy for my wife who has 1500 facebook friends


RE: Yep
By Jedi2155 on 7/12/2011 12:49:23 PM , Rating: 2
Its easy to switch when you only have a few dozen friends you keep in touch with. When you have a few hundred or more, it gets a little bit tougher forcing you to use multiple services once to keep in touch with all your buddies....I hate that but I guess fragmentation is just one of the downfalls of progress.

That's why I love programs like Pidgin for all my instant messaging needs. I use it for Xfire, AIM, Facebook, MSN, Gtalk, ICQ all in one..


RE: Yep
By Iaiken on 7/12/2011 1:56:56 PM , Rating: 4
quote:
When you have a few hundred or more, it gets a little bit tougher forcing you to use multiple services once to keep in touch with all your buddies...


Nope, made a post about my jumping ship and that people who wanted an invite should PM me their e-mail, just like I did with MySpace... and just like MySpace most of the active members on my friends lists followed suit.

I'll basically use both for a month before shutting down my FB account and e-mailing them to request they delete all of my personal information (as they are obliged to under Canadian Law).

So long FaceBook and good riddance...


RE: Yep
By MrTeal on 7/12/2011 2:34:51 PM , Rating: 2
Sounds like a good opportunity for your wife to unfriend the best friend of the brother of a girl who's birthday party she went to once when she was 7.


RE: Yep
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 2:38:59 PM , Rating: 2
hahaha trust me i have tried to convince her to get rid of those friends but she argues that she does talk to them. I don't believe it but I can't stop her so whatever.


RE: Yep
By Iaiken on 7/12/2011 1:52:07 PM , Rating: 2
I've managed to get over 300 family, friends, associates and colleagues to jump ship all by my lonesome.

Repeat the above 2 million times and Facebook will be in deep trouble...


Think the invitation mechanism is all hype
By BSquared on 7/12/2011 11:39:43 AM , Rating: 2
As soon as G+ went Beta, I had an invite the same day from Google, ever since I've invited about 300 people. I dunno about anyone else, but I don't think theres a limit on invites, specifically for the fact that everyone and anyone I know on G+ has invited about a dozen and more people themselves. This sounds a lil too much like being given 10, 50, and then 99 invites for GMail beta back in the day. Tell everyone it's limited admittance, and people go wild trying to get into it, hence artificial demand. Half the people I invited haven't even bothered to use it, and half of the half that do use it, already are complaining theres really nothing to do on it, other than use it just like twitter.




RE: Think the invitation mechanism is all hype
By stburke on 7/12/2011 11:47:41 AM , Rating: 3
If I may be so bold as to ask for one? I ditched facebook 5 months ago and have been waiting for a good alternative.


RE: Think the invitation mechanism is all hype
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 11:49:53 AM , Rating: 2
I can send you an invite just give me your gmail address


RE: Think the invitation mechanism is all hype
By JonB on 7/12/2011 3:50:51 PM , Rating: 2
I could also use an invite. Doing some class research.


By Ravioliolio on 7/13/2011 12:52:38 AM , Rating: 2
If there are any left I'd love an invite, and I'll start passing some out as well.


By danjw1 on 7/12/2011 12:31:25 PM , Rating: 2
My brother has tried to invite me and my other brother and neither of us have gotten them. So something is blocking that.


By FayKnaim on 7/13/2011 2:29:17 PM , Rating: 2
Please...


Another request for an invite
By nhorley on 7/12/2011 4:53:06 PM , Rating: 2
is it too late to get an invitation?? :)




RE: Another request for an invite
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 4:54:58 PM , Rating: 2
no, but you can't get one cause your email is not in your DT profile


RE: Another request for an invite
By nhorley on 7/12/2011 5:20:04 PM , Rating: 2
Just updated my dt profile

Thanks


How can this be accurate?
By chromal on 7/12/2011 11:48:54 AM , Rating: 2
How can google+ be as large as this article claims? It's a limited access alpha or whatever. I just looked, nope, they still aren't accepting members from the general public.




RE: How can this be accurate?
By cjohnson2136 on 7/12/2011 11:51:56 AM , Rating: 2
Say one person gets an invite. That person invites the 50 friends on facebook and say half of those join. Those 25 people then invite 50 and half of them join. It grows exponentially. That is how it could be so large.


This guy must be a lot of fun at a party!
By gregpet on 7/12/2011 1:30:23 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Paul Allen's statistical analysis says Google+ achieved 7.3 million users July 10, and will reach 10 million users today


Doesn't Paul Allen (apparently not THAT Paul Allen) have anything better to do than estimate something that Google could tell you (and will eventually) with the hit of a button...




By ElCapitano on 7/12/2011 4:20:47 PM , Rating: 2
CJohnson.. thanks for the invite


Isn't google dominent enough already...
By bernardl on 7/13/2011 1:07:05 AM , Rating: 2
I am not sure why I would want to trust Google on this one.

Their dominence is worrying enough already.

Let's not forget that their "free" ad based funded model is killing more software companies by unfair competition than MS ever did... by far.

Why give my personal data to the big vilain?

Cheers,
Bernard




By mackx on 7/13/2011 5:48:46 AM , Rating: 2
because it's not facebook.

if i opt out of something with google, it tends to stay that way. with facebook, your privacy settings get screwed around when they upgrade/make changes.

wonder how many peoples data is sold when their settings are changed to "allow" everything? after this "accident"?

tldr version - i trust google more than facebook


*Sigh*
By bplewis24 on 7/12/2011 12:22:24 PM , Rating: 2
The ironic thing about all positive G+ press I read (or any coverage of the features, etc) is that I cannot use any site's share function to share it to G+ yet.

Oh well, I guess I just have to share it to Facebook and rub it in

:)




By ElCapitano on 7/12/2011 3:15:44 PM , Rating: 2
Want to continually be my friend on FB!

Invite plz. Thanks! ;)




Spare invite?
By malvo on 7/12/2011 6:55:18 PM , Rating: 2
Anybody with any spare invites please?




cxzcxz
By nananan on 7/12/2011 8:26:39 PM , Rating: 2
http://www.benzlogo.com/
Free transport




Invite please?
By Michaelsm on 7/12/2011 8:28:55 PM , Rating: 2
Does anyone have a spare for me too please?




google+ invite
By G-Man on 7/13/2011 12:23:41 AM , Rating: 2
can anyone send me an invite for google+?




Invitation?
By Piyono on 7/13/2011 6:36:05 AM , Rating: 2
May I please have an invitation?




Google+
By z00lander on 7/13/2011 8:29:02 AM , Rating: 2
Can I get an invite from anyone? thanks a million




Invite, anyone? Thanks in advance!
By FayKnaim on 7/13/2011 2:27:30 PM , Rating: 2
They should give invites to Nexus One owners.... ;)




Invite?
By davey2k on 7/14/2011 11:02:53 PM , Rating: 2
Would anyone like to share an invite?

thanks!




Wake me up
By FITCamaro on 7/12/2011 12:18:59 PM , Rating: 1
When something interesting happens.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/googleplus.png




APPS
By icanhascpu on 7/12/2011 5:25:05 PM , Rating: 1
Bring them on!




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