Noted Hurricane Expert Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his stance on the impact of Global Warming on Hurricanes. Saying "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," Emanuel has released new research indicating that even in a rapidly warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity will not be substantially affected.
"The results surprised me," says Emanuel, one of the media's most quoted figures on the topic.
The view that global warming has limited impact on hurricane strength has been previously reported in numerous DailyTech articles.
Emanuel, professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, is the author of numerous books and research papers on climate change. For over twenty years, he has argued that global warming breeds more frequent and stronger storms. In fact, his 1987 paper is often cited as the first appearance of the theory itself.
His 2005 research -- published just one month before Hurricane Katrina struck -- made world headlines, and was heralded as the "final proof" that Global Warming was already having severe impacts on daily lives. Overnight, Emanuel became a media darling. The following year, Time Magazine named him to their "100 People Who Shape Our World" list.
In 2006, Al Gore used an image of a smokestack spawning a hurricane to promote his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.
Emanuel's newest work, co-authored with two other researchers, simulates hurricane conditions nearly 200 years in the future. The research -- the first to mesh global climate models with small-scale high-resolution simulations of individual storms -- found that while storm strength rises slightly in some areas, it falls in others -- and the total number of worldwide storms actually declines slightly.
Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.
quote: Emanuel's reversal is certain to reverberate through political circles as well; many politicians and candidates are using the hurricane threat to compel action on climate change.
quote: Tell you what...go make camp on a couple thousand year old glacier in greenland. If your camp is still there in 5 years, you are right. If it isn't (and it won't be), then you are thankfully removed from the gene pool and we know you were wrong.
quote: Al Gore, the UN.... They are charlatans, idiots and liars
quote: Global Warming is going the way of Y2K and the Ozone Hole.
quote: Yes, as this latest report seems to confirm
quote: Thats not a report and it doesn't "confirm" anything. It's just yet another computer model.The actual data shows sea level rise is still going up at the same slow rate it has for thousands of years.
quote: The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reporters from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers [all] point to a radical change in clmatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temerpatures in that part of the Earth's surface....Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted.
quote: The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway...Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
quote: Did we prevent the Manhatten Project from going forward until every citizen understood nuclear theory?
quote: In the past 50 years, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase
quote: That peninsula (a tiny part of Antarctica) is right on top of an active volcano region also.The rest of Antarctica (the vast majority) has been cooling the past 50 years. That's something GW can't explain.
quote: It's hardly a tiny part
quote: there is an Ozone hole in that region that reduces temperatures.
quote: You have it backwards. Low temperatures reduce ozone, not the other way around.
quote: Would someone be kind enough to explain to me how a refrigerant behaves as an insulator in the open atmosphere? I have read everything I can find on this global warming business and none of it makes any real sense so far.
quote: The theory that...CO2 [is] destroying our upper atmosphere is false because it goes against the scientific method.
quote: Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend
quote: Basinwide power dissipation and storm intensity generally increase with global warming, but the results vary from model to model and from basin to basin. Storm frequency decreases in the Southern Hemisphere and north Indian Ocean, increases in the western North Pacific, and is indeterminate elsewhere.
quote: ...this suggests either that the greater part of the large global increase in power dissipation over the past 27 yr cannot be ascribed to global warming, or that there is some systematic deficiency in our technique or in global models that leads to the underprediction of the response of tropical cyclones to global warming.
quote: Thus, the present results are broadly consistent with those of global model studies in that both generally show an increased frequency of very intense storms, but some tendency toward a reduction in the overall frequency of events in the Southern Hemisphere. The simplicity of the intensity model and natural selection technique employed here allows us to draw a fairly definitive conclusion about why the frequency of events declines in some places in our simulations.
quote: the greater part of the large global increase in power dissipation over the past 27 yr cannot be ascribed to global warming
quote: The above discussion suggests that only part of the observed increase in tropical cyclone power dissipation is directly due to increased SSTs; the rest can only be explained by changes in other factors known to influence hurricane intensity, such as vertical wind shear
quote: My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential
quote: Also of concern, he says, is that the increases in storm intensity are mirrored by increases in the average temperatures at the surface of the tropical oceans, suggesting that this warming is responsible for the hurricanes' greater power. Since hurricanes depend on warm water to form and build, Emanuel warns that global climate change might increase the effect of hurricanes still further in coming years.
quote: Earlier in the summer, Emanuel reported that hurricanes have grown more powerful and destructive over the last three decades due in part to global warming...
quote: Hurricanes have grown fiercer in recent decades, spurred by global warming, and even tougher storms are likely on the way, [Emanuel] predicts...
quote: Emanuel’s latest research, published in Nature Magazine, shows a startling global increase in hurricane strength and duration, which he correlates to rising sea temperatures linked to global warming .
quote: his latest research, published in a recent issue of the journal Nature, which correlates the greater increasing hurricane intensity with human-induced global warming...
quote: and instantly I'm as qualified on a field of study as someone that spent 20-30 years studying the field and have multiple degrees
quote: the long term temperature trend throughout the industrial era has been upward.
quote: The RSS satellite temperature data you link is exactly what you would expect to see from anthropogenic warming
quote: That warming trend started over 250 years ago though, long before we were generating CO2 in bulk. How do you explain that?
quote: No it isn't. AGW predicts the troposphere should warm much faster than the surface. It isn't.