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13-year-old says Apophis has 1 in 450 chance of hitting Earth in 2036

NASA predicted that the Apophis asteroid has about a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Earth in 2029 when it will to pass by the Earth at a distance of around 32,500 kilometers. Apophis first became an object of attention in December 2004 when the asteroid was deemed to have a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth.

The fear is that the asteroid could pass through a gravitational keyhole leading to an impact with the Earth in 2036 when the asteroid makes another orbit near earth. According to NASA, if the asteroid struck the earth it would create a 1,049 foot wide ball of iron and iridium weighing 200 billion tons that would crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The result of this crash would be devastating to the Earth as huge tsunami waves would be generated and obliterate coastal areas as well as inland areas. In addition to the Tsunami threat, the impact would create a thick dust cloud that could darken skies for an unknown period of time. The threat of impact from Apophis led to some calling on the UN to get a plan in place to deal with the threat asteroid impacts.

Yahoo News reports that a 13-year-old German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, found a fault in NASA’s calculations. Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam to calculate the likelihood that Apophis would collide with the Earth in 2036. The boy took into account the chance that Apophis could strike one of the 40,000 orbiting satellites around the Earth on it initial pass in 2029 leading to a change in the trajectory of the asteroid.

This change in trajectory if Apophis strikes a satellite could mean an impact in 2036. According to Marquardt the likelihood of Apophis striking the Earth in 2036 is 1 in 450, not the 1 in 45,000 NASA predicts.

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I'm ashamed
By phatboye on 4/16/2008 10:44:37 AM , Rating: 3
As a graduate with a B.S. in Math I wouldn't even know where to begin on how to do calculations like that. What the hell are they teaching these kids at his school and why wasn't I ever taught how to do something like that. I spent most of my undergraduate years in math learning about crap that would never be useful in the real world. Or is this kid just smart enough to have just figured out stats all by himself? w/o a very expensive education.




RE: I'm ashamed
By drakanious on 4/16/2008 10:50:49 AM , Rating: 2
I would assume some advanced differential equations and statistics?


RE: I'm ashamed
By masher2 (blog) on 4/16/2008 11:06:53 AM , Rating: 4
You can do pretty much everything you need in orbital mechanics with nothing but calculus. In fact, as the equations are already derived, I assume this kid simply plugged the values in same as NASA did...but added in the additional step of a probabilistic assumption of a small amount of velocity loss due to a collision with a geosynch satellite.


RE: I'm ashamed
By General Disturbance on 4/16/2008 11:29:35 AM , Rating: 4
It sounds to me like all the kid did was increase the cross-sectional interaction radius of the earth by including the orbit of geo-stationary satellites, and saying that if the asteroid passes within this radius it has the potential to strike a satellite which loosely could be classified as dangerous and an impact.
The calculation would simply be:

Earth_Only_Chance/Geo_Orbit_Chance = Earth_Radius^2/Geo_Radius^2

(1/45000)/Geo_Orbit_Chance = 5000km^2/(40000km)^2 = (~1/10)^2

Geo_Orbit_Chance = (1/45000)*(~10^2) ~ 1/450

This would be the level of a, what was it, 12 year old's math ability and education level.


RE: I'm ashamed
By EntreHoras on 4/16/2008 3:56:41 PM , Rating: 2
I felt like reading the script for "The Big Bang Theory" only without the hot blondie.


RE: I'm ashamed
By clovell on 4/16/2008 5:12:45 PM , Rating: 2
Exactly. With thousands of satellites and possible collision vectors and momentum transfer scenarios with said satelites, the equations that would have to be recalculated and re-computed - basing this number on the expected value of the conditional probabilities of possible trajectories following a satellite collision would bring the world's combined computing power to its knees.


RE: I'm ashamed
By TwistyKat on 4/16/2008 1:46:48 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
I assume this kid simply plugged the values in same as NASA did...but added in the additional step of a probabilistic assumption of a small amount of velocity loss due to a collision with a geosynch satellite.


Either that or NASA forgot to carry the 1.


RE: I'm ashamed
By Samus on 4/16/2008 2:25:46 PM , Rating: 2
They probably didn't account for the metric system...again. OPPS.


RE: I'm ashamed
By daInvincibleGama on 4/16/2008 6:06:23 PM , Rating: 4
NASA and the entire Us science community have been using the metric system for decades now.


RE: I'm ashamed
By daInvincibleGama on 4/16/2008 6:06:45 PM , Rating: 3
US*


RE: I'm ashamed
By rebturtle on 4/16/2008 10:13:20 PM , Rating: 3
I believe this is what most of us were thinking of:
http://www.space.com/news/070108_moon_metric.html

quote:
The dual strategy led to the loss of the Mars Climate Orbiter robotic probe in 1999; a contractor provided thruster firing data in English units while NASA was calculating in metric.


RE: I'm ashamed
By lompocus on 4/17/2008 7:32:22 PM , Rating: 1
He's 13 you retard!


RE: I'm ashamed
By Ammohunt on 4/17/2008 5:04:55 PM , Rating: 2
Try Trigonometry if you the OP would have joined the ARMY Artillery rather than waste his time on College indoctrination he would have learned the calculations necessary to predict such an impact.


RE: I'm ashamed
By cochy on 4/16/2008 10:50:59 AM , Rating: 5
Umm..Since this Yahoo! article provides absolutely no information about his calculations, this is what I'm assuming.

He simply figured the odds of the asteroid hitting one of the satellites (I didn't even know there were satellites orbiting at over 30,000km). He then equated a hit with changing the trajectory of the asteroid exactly enough to absolutely hit Earth.

This obviously can't be right as a 200 billion ton asteroid being stuck by a nuclear weapon would have a minimal effect on it's trajectory let alone it hitting a tiny pot hole in space (satellite).


RE: I'm ashamed
By NEOCortex on 4/16/2008 11:00:18 AM , Rating: 2
I to am a little skeptical about the influence a satellite would have on an asteroid of that size. One thing the source article mentions that this articles doesn't is the fact that NASA apparently agrees with this kid, so I guess there is validity in his calculations.

I just wish there were more details...


RE: I'm ashamed
By cochy on 4/16/2008 11:06:27 AM , Rating: 2
Well it says they both agree on what would happen if it hit. NASA didn't comment on his calculations.


RE: I'm ashamed
By headbox on 4/16/2008 12:06:19 PM , Rating: 2
NASA is probably still checking his math.

This article jumps out as B.S. because he would have to accurately calculate the new trajectory for each of the impacts. It seems like his calculations imply that contact with any other object in space would put it on course with Earth.


RE: I'm ashamed
By masher2 (blog) on 4/16/2008 12:20:13 PM , Rating: 2
> "This article jumps out as B.S. because he would have to accurately calculate the new trajectory for each of the impacts"

Well, the story *is* BS, but not for the reason above. You don't have to calculate new trajectories for each...just the increase in a keyhole capture scenario due to the loss of velocity from an impact.


RE: I'm ashamed
By Some1ne on 4/16/2008 3:52:41 PM , Rating: 2
The loss of velocity that occurs when a 200 billion ton object (is that really the right number? Seems a bit high) collides with a 10 ton object is about the same as the loss of velocity that occurs when a city bus collides with a fly. Which is to say, essentially 0.


RE: I'm ashamed
By masher2 (blog) on 4/16/2008 6:20:26 PM , Rating: 3
As calculated below, its sufficient to cause a dV sufficient to change the asteroid's path by one meter every 8 days or so...or by about 320 meters by the time the asteroid comes around again in 7 years.

Small indeed...but not zero.