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Print 28 comment(s) - last by afkrotch.. on Mar 4 at 12:38 PM

Analysts anticipate a strong PC shipment decline in 2009

Gartner expects PC shipments will drop 11.9 percent this year -- the biggest decline suffered by the industry -- as emerging nations prepare to reduce the amount of products they order.

Although most industries are suffering from the struggling global economy, the PC industry was able to persevere in 2008, but Gartner predicts its luck will run out throughout the year.

"The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious," Gartner research director George Shiffler said in a statement.

The 11.9 percent predicted drop is more than three times worse than the PC industry's previous loss of 3.2 percent in 2001.  Prior to the economic meltdown, Gartner believed global PC shipments would top 155 million units this year, which would have been a nine percent increase when compared to last year.

Emerging markets have exploded over the years, but sales will drop 10.4 percent in 2009, Gartner predicts.  Both mature markets and emerging markets will suffer because of the economy.

"The impact of reduced replacements will be especially acute in mature markets, where replacements are estimated to account for around 80 percent of shipments," the research firm said in a published statement.

Hewlett-Packard, the largest PC maker, was forced to cut its 2009 profit outlook because the slumping economy has drastically hurt its PC business.  Dell also posted a 48 percent decline in Q4 earnings, and anticipates a continued struggle through 2009.



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Hurrah for analysts!
By MrDiSante on 3/2/2009 7:45:46 PM , Rating: 2
Pulling numbers and facts out of their behinds since Nostradamus.




RE: Hurrah for analysts!
By DigitalFreak on 3/2/2009 7:49:18 PM , Rating: 2
It's Gartner. That's all they do.


RE: Hurrah for analysts!
By codeThug on 3/2/2009 9:44:03 PM , Rating: 2
What? Pull numbers and facts out of their behinds since Nostradamus.


By Master Kenobi (blog) on 3/3/2009 9:48:56 AM , Rating: 3
Gartner needs to go away. I don't know how many times I've heard people quite gartner predictions as absolute truths.


RE: Hurrah for analysts!
By iamezza on 3/4/2009 5:15:27 AM , Rating: 2
Ah, so that's why they are called anal ysts?


PC shipments to decline
By frozentundra123456 on 3/2/2009 7:46:34 PM , Rating: 4
Actually computers are becoming so powerful that for routine use such as office aps and web surfing, replacements are not really needed except for hardware failure. Back in the old days, upgrading from 200 mhz to 400 or some similar upgrade had a huge inpact on performance. Now for basic uses almost any computer made within the last couple of years is quite adequate now and for a long time to come.
The only aps that really benefit from upgrades now are games and video encoding.




RE: PC shipments to decline
By mindless1 on 3/3/09, Rating: 0
RE: PC shipments to decline
By applepies on 3/3/2009 7:52:08 AM , Rating: 5
Microsoft take note! Keep your price for Windows 7 low and a lot of people will upgrade the OS instead of buying a new box!


RE: PC shipments to decline
By mindless1 on 3/3/2009 8:07:05 PM , Rating: 2
It's very strange you've been rated up, as you are basically wrong. Win7 isn't all that much different than Vista, those with Vista systems have little incentive to switch to Win7 if it were free and took zero time to install, configure, and learn the differences in the GUI. Users of XP on the other hand still have a system presumably older, then even older still by the time Win7 is released.

It will be as always, the majority of new OS sales to individuals will be OEM licenses coming with a new system. The OS IS priced low when it comes with the system. A lower than typical retail OS license cost would tend to do something else instead, cause fewer people to reuse their prior OS license when building a new system or doing significant enough upgrades that it invalidates the prior limited license, though again this is a minority as most people don't build or upgrade their own.

MS would lose money by lowering the price considering this, because of their monopoly they can keep pricing the same, even raise it some and still sell their volume through OEMs, IF people weren't putting off new systems due to the recession and the fact that if their older system isn't so old as to be ineffective for their common tasks or to have failed and be in need of costly repair, it still suits their needs.


Wha?
By Spivonious on 3/2/2009 8:06:14 PM , Rating: 2
"Worse drop ever"

Are you kidding me?




RE: Wha?
By Dianoda on 3/2/2009 9:36:33 PM , Rating: 2
What? You don't enjoy reading egregiously incorrect grammar from time to time? I personally find such errors to be hilarious.


RE: Wha?
By codeThug on 3/2/2009 9:49:48 PM , Rating: 3
Almost always never make fun of somebody else's grammar.


RE: Wha?
By Creig on 3/3/2009 7:57:54 AM , Rating: 2
He needs to use more gooder English.


RE: Wha?
By afkrotch on 3/4/2009 12:30:34 PM , Rating: 2
I'm don't agree with you. I'm think he's English is gooder.


Less e-junk piling up ...
By armagedon on 3/2/2009 8:44:16 PM , Rating: 2
well at least, that will be a relief for all the tech junk which litter third world developing countries. People tend to hang on to their computer longer now. As for me, i stop upgrading mine 3 years ago because it does everything i want. Even for playing game i just popin another PCi-E card, not a new cpu/mb. That said from what i am seeing, even pc gaming is going down the drain anyway against the consoles.




RE: Less e-junk piling up ...
By mindless1 on 3/3/2009 8:13:00 PM , Rating: 2
It may not ultimately be a relief of the rate of tech junk accumulating. What happens when the sales go down? Manufacturers tend to build to lower price points with the results being slower, lower quality systems that probably won't have as long of a viable or pre-failure lifespan. Such systems will then need be replaced sooner.

The mitigating factor is one you'd already mentioned, since systems are now fast enough for the majority of uses there is less incentive to replace them until they fail.


good
By yacoub on 3/2/2009 9:37:56 PM , Rating: 2
then let's see prices come down to try to keep sales up. i'm looking forward to better prices.




RE: good
By mindless1 on 3/3/2009 8:14:42 PM , Rating: 2
Lower prices would have to mean a drop in construction cost, or OEMs suffering losses to the point where some may not survive, reducing competition and variety which is bad for the consumer.


By quiksilvr on 3/2/2009 7:22:55 PM , Rating: 1
Down with Democracy!




Blame Micro$hit
By reader1 on 3/2/09, Rating: -1
RE: Blame Micro$hit
By InternetGeek on 3/2/2009 8:24:46 PM , Rating: 4
Ehm... you don't need new hardware to enjoy the benefits of new software unless you're looking for faster/cheaper processing or you own a mac...


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By zonetime on 3/2/2009 9:20:29 PM , Rating: 2
Well, it seems that itards always blame microsoft. That's because they've been so brainwashed by "get a mac" ads they need some way to make themselves feel good after being ripped off. mac users base most of their decision on thinking it's far better, when in fact it isn't. I've had both and know apple is hype. I currently have windows 7 up and running for a over a week and it's completely stable and hasn't needed one reboot during my stability test. It makes my macbook pro (which i'm selling) look antiquated. I think microsoft has really hit the sweet spot between xp and vista this time. Also my system is QQ at 3.6ghz and is quite a bit faster than macs out there. I have 1TB (not 500 mb), more ram than most macs and set it all up for $678! It's fast and stable as can be. Any one who thinks microsoft is shit is brain washed by apple ads. So there is no blaming ms as you said. If there is any shit, it's the mac for being so over rated, and over priced. I've also found out their policies in terms of repair or upgrade suck.


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By 67STANG on 3/2/2009 9:41:58 PM , Rating: 4
I'm sorry, but Apple has trademarked iTards. You'll need to delete your post immediately.


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By mindless1 on 3/3/2009 8:19:56 PM , Rating: 3
Nice rant, though it would be fair to say plenty of people have no interest in a Mac even though you seem to be in the group that was brainwashed into buying one, and these people prefer their OS to go in a different direction than MS is taking it (recalling the large backlash in switching from XP to Vista).

Most people simply don't need to feel *modern* at the cost of time or money, their systems ARE actually modern if they acceptably do the tasks required of them today. Modern in a real-world practical sense instead of marketing conceptual or contemporary hardware spec sense.


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By zerocool84 on 3/2/2009 8:41:56 PM , Rating: 2
At least you get a choice of programs and hardware to use, not like other comapnies.


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By codeThug on 3/2/2009 9:52:09 PM , Rating: 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AyVh1_vWYQ

That's what I'm talkin' about...


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By Belard on 3/3/2009 3:46:26 PM , Rating: 2
While I think Vista is part of the problem, the whole world has slowed-down.

The vista issue is that many people DON'T want vista and are just waiting for it to be replaced. Business update cycle is 3~6 years. So even in one of my offices, we're using all XP/Office2003. We're purposely waiting till a few months after Win7 comes out before replacing these computers with Win7/Office2010.

Some machines are showing wear & tear, but we'll deal with replacements if needed. Luckily, XP-OEMs are still available for purchase.


RE: Blame Micro$hit
By afkrotch on 3/4/2009 12:38:46 PM , Rating: 2
We still have Vista on the testbed. We're on XP/Office2k7. Businesses sit behind the times, as they like to verify that all their apps will work on a new OS. Not to mention, they want the general public to find all the bugs and inform Microsoft. Then have them get fixed before they upgrade to it.

We do blanket licensing, so a new system can come with whatever the hell OS or no OS at all. We don't need it.


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