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Windows Phone 7 is predicted to be the second largest smart phone OS, by market share, within four years.  (Source: Neowin)

Meanwhile, the Android army is also on the rise. Gartner predicts it will have almost a 50 percent market share by next year (2012).  (Source: DeviantArt)

Microsoft's struggling partner Nokia was recently surpassed by the second largest Android smart phone maker, HTC, in market cap.  (Source: Corbis / Joel W. Rogers)
Android estimated to hit near 50 percent; meanwhile, HTC passes Nokia in market cap

Gartner, Inc., one of the world's most respectable market research firms, has announced [press release] that its research supports our hypothesis that Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 smartphone OS will become the market's second largest player when the phase-out of Nokia Oyj.'s (NOK) Symbian OS is complete.  

In a research report released this week, it estimates that this year the platform will only rise modestly from 4.2 percent market share in 2010 to 5.6 percent in 2011 (still behind Symbian, in fifth place).  But by 2012 it will jump to a 10.8 percent, switching places with Symbian.  And three years later in 2015, it will have surpassed iOS and Research in Motion, reaching 19.5 percent market share, taking the #2 spot in world market share.

The report is most pessimistic about Canadian smartphone maker Research in Motion, Ltd.'s (RIM) prospects.  It predicts that RIM will fall from a 2010 peak market share of 16.0 percent to 11.1 percent by 2015.  It also predicts that Apple, Inc.'s (AAPL) iOS will rise this year, but fall by 2015.

Aside from Microsoft, the other big winner if Gartner's predictions hold true will be Google.  Gartner predicts that Google will rise from a narrow lead of 22.7 in 2010 world sales, to a dominant 49.2 percent market share by 2012.  

Variety of handset options, bleeding edge hardware, and a relatively strong brand image continue to drive Android sales upward even as some of its other competitors flounder.

On Wednesday in the Asian markets, Taiwan's HTC Corp. (2498) passed Finnish phonemaker Nokia in total market cap.  Market cap isn't the best measure of true performance or company reach (Apple recently passed Microsoft), but it does off a bit of a thermometer to the market's perception of a company.

HTC's cap hit $33.8B USD after shares rose 5.3 percent in the day's trading.  Nokia managed a modest 1.1 percent raise, with its cap closing at $33.6B USD.

Nokia ships far more phones than HTC.  HTC, currently Asia's second largest phone maker (in market cap), shipped 24.7 million handsets in 2010, according to Gartner.  By contrast, Nokia shipped 461 million units last year.

However, HTC's phones are largely high-profit smartphones, whereas Nokia's sales are still heavily driven by low-margin older phone designs.  In that regard the companies are much closer in profit than the sales numbers might indicate.  HTC's operating margin, a measure of profitability was 16 percent during 2010's final calendar quarter, while Nokia's was 7 percent.

Traders' valuation of HTC may also be based on the fact that the company has a great deal of upward momentum.  Nokia, meanwhile, has a degree of downward momentum as it tries to make the painful transition from Symbian to Microsoft's Windows Phone 7.

HTC's rise in the smartphone market has been nothing short of meteoric.  The largely unknown device maker has risen to become one of the premier Android smart phone makers, trailing only South Korean giant Samsung Electronics (005930).  Its success largely owes to its decision to fully throw its support behind the "winning horse" in the smartphone race -- Android.

The company does face some threats, though, such as Chinese Android phone-maker ZTE (000063).



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So...
By quiksilvr on 4/7/11, Rating: 0
RE: So...
By RandomFool on 4/7/2011 10:36:34 AM , Rating: 2
Nope, they mention the fruit in the article. Unfortunately, it's one fruity phone against many more Windows and Android phones.


RE: So...
By omnicronx on 4/7/2011 10:38:54 AM , Rating: 2
They predicted no such thing. They said Google would be #1 with ~50% share, and MS would be #2 (not half the market) at ~20%.

They are predicting that Apple share will go down, and will help make up that last 30%.


RE: So...
By MeesterNid on 4/7/11, Rating: -1
RE: So...
By Flunk on 4/7/2011 11:02:27 AM , Rating: 5
No, he's perfectly right. He said Apple would make up part of the remaining 30% of the market. Which includes all other OSes. Since they mention elsewhere in the article they expect Blackberry to retain 10% that means that iOS is fighting for that last 20% with everyone else.

Learn to read first before criticizing.


RE: So...
By StraightCashHomey on 4/7/2011 6:13:11 PM , Rating: 1
Lol.. what a jackass. Bet you wish there was an edit button.


RE: So...
By quiksilvr on 4/7/2011 11:11:07 AM , Rating: 2
FOMP (Fail On My Part)

I misread the article, good catch.


RE: So...
By Calin on 4/7/2011 11:16:24 AM , Rating: 2
Mobile phones are not what they used to be, Apple just found a new profit center with the iPad. As the iPod is no longer the halo product it once was, its place was taken by iPhones and now iPads. I wonder what's coming in the next 5 years...


RE: So...
By Da W on 4/7/2011 11:28:56 AM , Rating: 2
Chips implant in your brain


RE: So...
By dark matter on 4/7/2011 1:15:31 PM , Rating: 1
A massive oil shortage, resistance to anti-biotics, increased global instability and most likely the utter collapse of the global banking industry.

In short; World War 3


RE: So...
By callmeroy on 4/7/2011 2:54:28 PM , Rating: 2
Happy times....keep those positive thoughts rolling along....


RE: So...
By ResStellarum on 4/8/2011 5:28:47 AM , Rating: 1
I agree. This prediction is highly unlikely. Then again, Gartner changes its predictions every few months, so I wouldn't put much stock in it really.

I don't see Microsoft's mobile platform going anywhere but down in the near future.


Seems about right
By InvertMe on 4/7/2011 11:28:25 AM , Rating: 5
This is how I see the market playing out too. It will be interesting to see what the actual numbers will be.

I have a vested interest in this as I have been steering my firm away from iPhones and to WP7 phones. I would hate to be pointing them to a dead end.




RE: Seems about right
By Wolfpup on 4/7/2011 12:04:19 PM , Rating: 1
I'm surprised by this but in a way kind of relieved. Microsoft as the big bad was evil...but I don't know, they still allowed some real choice, and they never pushed things as far as Apple has, I don't think. Apple gets a little power and just goes NUTS with the user control, random things like trying to charge third parties 30% to operate their own store, etc.

Android + Microsoft doesn't sound too bad. I'd love if WebOS does well too though!


RE: Seems about right
By Conner on 4/7/2011 3:22:41 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Apple gets a little power and just goes NUTS with the user control, random things like trying to charge third parties 30% to operate their own store, etc.

Imagine a world where Walmart allowed any one with 99$ to set up shop in their store!!!

Stores have rights to carry and not carry products.

If that 30% commission was so bad then developers would go develop for Andriod.

I just happy that the AppStore allows such easy access to indie software, more so than any other store in history.


RE: Seems about right
By Mr772 on 4/8/2011 7:21:18 AM , Rating: 1
You mean like the largest online retailer ever? Amazon does this and charges much less than 30% to sell in their store. There is no $99 fee to setup in their store either.

Nobody ever said stores couldn't pick what they wanted to sell.


RE: Seems about right
By Conner on 4/8/2011 7:42:41 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Nobody ever said stores couldn't pick what they wanted to sell.

quote:
By Wolfpup on 4/7/2011 12:04:19 PM "......they never pushed things as far as Apple has, I don't think. Apple gets a little power and just goes NUTS with the user control...."


Good for Amazon. Go release your software there and see how much you sell.


RE: Seems about right
By Paj on 4/8/2011 7:22:17 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I just happy that the AppStore allows such easy access to indie software, more so than any other store in history.


Apart from say, Steam, or the Xbox store?


RE: Seems about right
By Conner on 4/8/2011 7:55:48 AM , Rating: 2
When I said indie, I didn't mean just games. And indies have been more successful on the iOS platform more than any other (world of goo example).
http://2dboy.com/2011/02/08/ipad-launch/


RE: Seems about right
By Reclaimer77 on 4/8/2011 9:30:08 AM , Rating: 2
What's with the hostile fanboism? Take a pill kid.


RE: Seems about right
By Conner on 4/8/2011 3:08:13 PM , Rating: 2
How did you pickup hostile?


RE: Seems about right
By BZDTemp on 4/7/11, Rating: -1
Ok...
By Conner on 4/7/2011 1:12:04 PM , Rating: 3
As long as Apple has +70% developer market share I don't think things are going to change.
Another thing to note is Apple's recent success in China. They're not standing still and won't let Google or Microsoft take over their high-end market, in any part of the world.




RE: Ok...
By B3an on 4/8/2011 12:18:19 AM , Rating: 2
Well speaking as a developer obviously Apple wont have that many developers for much longer as the other OS's continue to grow and mature.
I think most devs will happily jump ship to other OS's when it's time as Apple makes us jump through too many hoops.

And many people dont even know about this yet... but with the upcoming Flash Player 11 this year with complete GPU hardware acceleration and access to DirectX/OpenGL it will have the ability to do console-level 3D graphics, this is going to bring a new era to the web for gaming, like Flash did with video, as now you'll be able to get some truly impressive looking games you can play in a browser on any device with Flash support. Instant cross platform capability. They can be free or payed for games (like a massive multiplayer MMO game all based inside the web browser), or ports of existing games (i've seen quickly ported Quake 3 running in Flash Player 11 pre-release), but it gives devs the ability to avoid stores and get 100% or atleast a higher cut of the sales.
Not saying all devs will start doing this, of course not, but some will definitely be drawn to it. It opens up many new possibilities and extremely easy customer access for delivering your games.
But one things for sure - none of this will available on any Apple iOS devices.


RE: Ok...
By Mr772 on 4/8/2011 7:24:58 AM , Rating: 2
Apps running on a web site that's the "real" reason apple doesn't support flash. It breaks their walled garden and lets people use apps through their browser that they didn't get from apple's app store.


RE: Ok...
By Conner on 4/8/2011 7:35:34 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
And many people dont even know about this yet... but with the upcoming Flash Player 11 this year with complete GPU hardware acceleration and access to DirectX/OpenGL it will have the ability to do console-level 3D graphics

Flash mobile is not optimized enough for anything. This is vaporware if I ever heard such a thing. It's hard to believe that flash will somehow magically become good enough to run on phone hardware and on top of that run more than a simple video stream.

And even if it is released, Adobe has their port Flash-to-iOS software.
http://www.adobe.com/support/flash/downloads.html

So unless Google finds some magic way of releasing development software to solve all the fragmentation problems, I don't see your point.


Gartner.... respectable!??!?
By BZDTemp on 4/7/2011 6:29:55 PM , Rating: 2
Maybe years ago but for a long time they have been making studies funded by companies looking for good stories.

One example is that Microsoft has payed Gartner for studies which, surprise, surprise, came out and said TCO was lower for Windows than for Linux.

I wonder who funded this "study" :-)




$33.6 percent
By SimpleLance on 4/7/11, Rating: 0
M$ Pays for another study
By Dribble on 4/7/11, Rating: -1
RE: M$ Pays for another study
By Mitch101 on 4/7/2011 12:03:30 PM , Rating: 2
You have to look at it Globally Windows Phone 7 is rapidly growing in some countries and Symbian atill outsells Android and iPhone in some markets. India and Australia for starters.

Windows Phone 7 has 'stronger start' than Android in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/windows...

Windows Phone 7, which went on sale on October 20, snagged a 4.4 per cent share for the quarter.

Nokia's Symbian maintained first place with a 32.2 per cent share, followed by Apple's iOS (30.3 per cent) and Android (25 per cent).


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By fishman on 4/7/2011 1:41:40 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
"Windows Phone 7 has 'stronger start' than Android in Australia"


Well, MS has had a smartphone OS for a number of years. WP 7 is just the latest. It's like when Windows 7 came out - the sales of Vista dropped accordingly.

In the US, the total share of MS Mobile and WP7 is dropping:

http://blogs.computerworld.com/17751/windows_phone...



RE: M$ Pays for another study
By Mitch101 on 4/7/2011 2:31:47 PM , Rating: 2
It doesn't sell as fast as the established Androids and iPhone yet so when we look at marketshare as a whole its NOT GAINING market share. But if you compare Windows Phone 7 sales to pre Windows Phone 7 sales its selling very well and gaining in sales. Until Windows Phone 7 sales numbers start to reach iPhone and Android numbers it will appear to lose market share despite the Phones selling. Any phone company not selling at Android and iPhone numbers will appear to be losing despite their phones selling well and more and more people are buying smartphones over regular cell phones.

Consumers are still learning about the Microsoft Phones.

In Big Corporate Windows Phone 7 is being tested currently when Microsoft starts to drop in more Exchange and Sharepoint support then Big Corporate will start to bring them in.

The drawback is HTC and the others make a better Android Phone than they do the Windows Phone 7. For instance better camera's on the Androids and very few Windows Phone 7 have the Memory slot. This is why Nokia is crucial they need to put on a higher quality component. You cant release a similar Android Device and Windows Phone device side by side and give the Windows Phone a sub par camera and video record ability and expect it to sell as good as its droid version counterpart with a better camera and video. Thats the bad of third party hardware manufacturers. Its why the Apple iPhone cameras and video are so good. Microsoft needs to address the save a dollar components the third parties are doing to the device. But Nokia will solve that issue.


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By micksh on 4/7/2011 6:56:20 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
if you compare Windows Phone 7 sales to pre Windows Phone 7 sales its selling very well and gaining in sales
Sure, just because Windows Phone 7 sales before Windows Phone 7 were zero. Everything non-zero will be a gain comparing to zero.
quote:
The drawback is HTC and the others make a better Android Phone than they do the Windows Phone 7. For instance better camera's on the Androids and very few Windows Phone 7 have the Memory slot.
Maybe it's because Windows Phone 7 does not support user-swappable memory cards, no? What's the point of memory slot if you can't use it?

And it is certainly impossible to equip Windows Phone 7 with better hardware than Android. It's because Windows Phone 7 currently runs only on single platform, Qualcomm Snapdragon QSD8250 and Adreno 205 GPU.
This platform is now outdated. Android devices can use newer hardware but WP7 devices can't. These are limitations that Microsoft puts on WP7.
quote:
Thats the bad of third party hardware manufacturers
You have no idea what you are talking about, do you?
You can't even use your own mp3 as a ringtone on WP7. And you probably think it's "the bad of third party hardware manufacturers", not the bad of Microsoft.


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By Mitch101 on 4/8/2011 10:57:24 AM , Rating: 2
Not even going to comment on your first zero comment you dont get it the first time you wont understand the second time around.

The memory slot idea is brilliant. For example the iPhone is hard set on memory no expansion so Apple must make multiple versions of the phone. With the Microsoft phone you get the one phone and add as much memory as you believe you need. If your iPhone runs out of memory guess what you have to sell it and get a new one with more memory. With the Windows Phone 7 you just replace the memory. No need to sell and buy a new one. One phone you choose how much memory you need. Sure its not swappable but if you run out of 32+ internal memory on a phone with a 5megpixel camera and 720p video your just being a hog about something.

Now for those and the ones without a memory slot also With Microsofts online cloud you dont need to swap memory cards you can upload to the cloud and log into your pc and the pictures and movies you recorded are there and downloaded to your PC. Sure it would be nice but its first gen the iPhone is on its 4th and still doesn't have a memory slot and its selling well.

There is nothing out there that requires a dual core cpu in a phone that 99% of the people need and the apps are written with the lowest common denominator like many PC games are held back because they are written with Wii, 360, PS3 in mind for maximum sales. I dont know of any applications that currently require a dual core chip in a phone so its overkill currently. Sure it will eventually be needed but not today. When you can name 50 must have cant live without apps on the device that require that dual core you will be right otherwise they run fine on a single core 1ghz proc.

I do believe the Windows 7 phone manufacturers should have 8 megapixel cameras with full 720P video recording not VGA and reduces FPS at 720P with a better lens on the device and a front facing camera even if it doesn't use it currently.


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By phryguy on 4/8/2011 4:27:28 AM , Rating: 2
Australia only has 21 million people. That's even less than the state of California. Please cite your sources for India. AFAIK, WP7 isn't even localized for any of the Indian languages, so they'd have to use English.


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By kleinma on 4/7/2011 3:08:27 PM , Rating: 3
Yeah MS paid for a study that says Google will own half the market. What are you an idiot? Or just a blind iPhone zealot?


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By amanojaku on 4/7/2011 3:26:21 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Yeah MS paid for a study that says Google will own half the market. What are you an idiot? Or just a blind iPhone zealot?
C) All of the above?


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By snakeInTheGrass on 4/7/2011 5:26:06 PM , Rating: 2
He was pointing out that Microsoft can't really expect all Symbian users to just magically transfer to WP7. Did you see him saying Microsoft paid to point out that Google has a higher market share? Do you have a reading problem? Get a grip.


RE: M$ Pays for another study
By kleinma on 4/7/2011 5:37:22 PM , Rating: 2
No I saw him making claims that Microsoft paid for the study to happen. If I were a giant company paying for a supposed unbiased study to be done I would at least have them project me to be the winner, not second place (in this totally fabricated hypothetical situation he has claimed occured). That was my point. I have a grip. Thanks.


By snakeInTheGrass on 4/7/2011 5:50:10 PM , Rating: 2
OK, that makes sense, claiming he said anything about Google or iPhone seemed a bit odd. I'm not sure I agree - I think if Microsoft had paid for a study they'd be thrilled for it to claim they'll be in second place. Claiming first place would sound even more wrong. :)

I have no idea how Gartner comes up with the studies or who it takes payments from for them; if Microsoft did pay for the study, I'd call it even more fishy. As is, it just sounds like the same type of useless stuff that analysts for investment banks do.


What are these guys smoking? I want some!
By jnemesh on 4/7/11, Rating: -1
RE: What are these guys smoking? I want some!
By Da W on 4/7/2011 5:04:42 PM , Rating: 1
warning. troll. warning.


By snakeInTheGrass on 4/7/2011 5:19:57 PM , Rating: 3
How is pointing out that Gartner is smoking some potent stuff trolling?


By ResStellarum on 4/8/2011 5:23:15 AM , Rating: 3
Dude, you are the one trolling. What he said was quite reasonable.

In terms of the article, I'm not convinced Windows Mobile 7 can get that level of marketshare. Microsoft's mobile platform has actually been declining overall. That means more people are upgrading to competing smartphones than switching directly to 7. This does not bode well for Microsoft's nascent iteration.


Fortune tellers and grifters
By Tony Swash on 4/7/11, Rating: -1
RE: Fortune tellers and grifters
By Conner on 4/7/2011 2:26:52 PM , Rating: 2
nice article


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