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The International Space Station
The future of the ISS beyond 2015 remains very confusing for the public and space officials

The International Space Station, floating more than 200 miles above the Earth's surface, has been supported in the scientific community, but a lack of major scientific breakthroughs from space has made a growing number of people doubt the ISS and the nations supporting the mission.

A recent pairing of opinion blogs in the "Outlook & Opinions" in the Washington Post argue the actual benefit of the multi-billion ISS, and whether or not it's worth all of the trouble that NASA and others are going through to complete its construction.  Writer Michael Benson claims that the project is "going no where at a very high rate of speed," and continues by saying the ISS still has "virtually no purpose and is accomplishing nothing" as a scientific research platform.

A countering blog written by a former NASA contractor highlights the successes of the ISS, and why nations are willing to put so much time, effort and money into the project.

As even more money is being pumped into the ISS, there continues to be a growing discontent over the project that NASA hopes to complete before 2010.  Once the current shuttle is retired, there is an expected five-year gap until 2015, when NASA expects to roll out Orion.

The ISS has 15,000 cubic feet of livable space, 10 different modules, the ability to host five astronauts plus an extra one or two, and has fully-functioning research laboratories able to host a multitude of different experiments.  The project began in 1998, but suffered delays due to the shuttle Columbia disaster, and has suffered major budget issues over the past 10 years.

But with an estimated lifespan until 2015, the future of the ISS beyond that has remained very confusing amongst the five lead nations responsible for its construction.  Besides NASA and Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan and Canada have been responsible for providing financial support and hardware that has been used to create and add to the ISS.

Once completed in two years, the space station will have evolved into a $100-billion project that the five nations will be very unlikely to want to give up, and instead will be used until it's no longer feasible.  The head of the Russian Roskosmos space agency, Alexey Krasnov, said during the Multilateral Coordination Board last week his agency wants to add electrical-supply hardware and other technology aboard the ISS, and wants to keep it running as long as possible.

After launching habitable space modules to the ISS recently, both the ESA and JAXA said they intend to make use of their modules to help keep the ISS supported and operational.  NASA's Griffin said it is very unlikely NASA will turn its back on the ISS before 2016, but with the U.S. space agency's renewed interest in future missions to the moon and Mars, less money and supplies may be available for the ISS.

The five nations are actively talking about the financial and technical responsibilities that each nation will need to offer to help take care of the ISS until 2020 and beyond.  The U.S. Congress already said NASA should be prepared to support the ISS until 2020, and anything beyond that will be taken into consideration once the time comes.  Russia will have to take on an extra burden while helping transport NASA astronauts and cargo aboard its own rockets until NASA is able to complete the Aries-Orion shuttle in 2015.

Researchers also hope to be able to use the ISS as a working platform for possible manned mission to Mars, and as a proper stepping stone for supplies and astronauts on the way to the moon.  But Benson argues that stopping at the ISS on the way to Mars would be a waste of fuel and time to make a pit stop.

Despite the criticism, NASA, Russia and other space organizations continue in their effort to finish the space lab in the next two years.  Two cosmonauts working at the ISS recently installed a new docking target and also worked on several science experiments.

Regardless of whether or not journalists, the public, or space engineers approve of the ISS, developed space nations will continue to try and finish construction the next two years.  After the construction is completed, however, the five leading partners behind the ISS will continue to modify and fix the ISS until it is no longer economical to do so.



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Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/2008 8:06:47 AM , Rating: 5
The number one reason to complete this project is that it's a stepping stone to greater projects, such as lunar landings, mining, etc. It's an exercise for many of the best engineers that the world can muster. Once it's finished, then the world of astro-faring nations can focus its collective attention on the next great lunar challenge.




RE: Why it's important
By JasonMick (blog) on 7/23/2008 8:14:52 AM , Rating: 3
Agreed.

Yea, the biggest problem is unrealistic expectations. The fact of the matter is that the ISS has accomplished a lot considering the state of spaceflight.

It'd be great to have more, but without a space elevator or some other exotic method of transporting people and materials into orbit cheaply, you could never get the really cool stuff, like a space colony, or space factories.

Of course these efforts remain a ways away, so for now we should give the ISS our all, I say.


RE: Why it's important
By jadeskye on 7/23/2008 8:20:41 AM , Rating: 2
I agree. I've always loved the ISS. The truth of it comes in that we've had people living in space since it's birth.

That alone is an achievement for mankind if you ask me. The depressing part seemed to be that it would be finished in time for it to crash into the ocean, i never saw the point.

Now that they're gonna try and maintain it beyond 2015, i'm pleased. maybe in the decade or so longer we hope to keep it we can start work on the space elevator or maybe forgo that and just go straight back to the moon.


RE: Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/08, Rating: 0
RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 9:56:52 AM , Rating: 3
> "It'd be great to have more, but without a space elevator or some other exotic method of transporting people and materials into orbit cheaply, you could never get the really cool stuff, like a space colony"

All we need is a nuclear rocket. Chemical propulsion doesn't have a high enough specific impulse to get to orbit cheaply. That means massive amounts of fuel to lift microscopic payloads.

The tight fuel budget also means you have to boost at very high gees (which requires a very strong structure) and aerobraking when you need to land (which requires materials to handle ultra-high temperatures). That means spacecraft are terribly difficult to design. But with an efficient nuclear engine, boosting at 2G is possible, and, without aerobraking, there's no particular stresses from reentry. Hell, you could air-seal a school bus and make a spacecrat out of it.


RE: Why it's important
By rtrski on 7/23/2008 10:39:04 AM , Rating: 2
A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum. I'm sure you could brace it as well as just "air seal" it, but it's still pretty inefficient compared to something with a cylindrical cross-section. Corners are bad.

I liked Varley's take on it...he invented a B.S. 'endless thrust' drive as the justifying technology for a (fun, but fairly lowbrow) SF book about a race to Mars and had a ragtag team convert an assembly of train tanker cars into a space vessel.

Can you point to any studies on nuclear rockets and weight-to-impulse ratios, e.g. the weight lost to shielding vs. the wait gained not carrying all the chemical fuel and oxidant? I'm honestly curious, not doubting your statement.


RE: Why it's important
By wordsworm on 7/23/2008 11:30:20 AM , Rating: 2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocke...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_pulse_propuls...

I was able to find these articles. My biggest beef with the idea, of course, is the potential for an accident. Nuclear catastrophes, such as a high altitude explosion, could lead to a wide dispersal of radioactive material. If he's talking about nuclear pulse propulsion, then you have to take into account that it could conceivably kill 1-10 people every time it was launched due to radiation hormesis.

Anyways, I'm still more into the concept of a magnetic launch. http://www.launchpnt.com/Space_Launch.32.0.html If something like that was created, there would be no need for nuclear disasters, or even chemical disasters. Launch a series of modules to include some solar powered ion thruster, robotics to build a mining base, refinery, etc, and voila: lunar base. It would be so much better than playing with those nasty nuclear reactors.


RE: Why it's important
By NullSubroutine on 7/23/2008 1:39:24 PM , Rating: 2
I think the varying space elevator is a far more efficient for getting things into space. If you can get that into space, you could just start making ships or whatever in space off a manufacturing platform built on an asteroid or moon.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:41:07 PM , Rating: 2
> "I think the varying space elevator is a far more efficient for getting things into space."

Oh sure. Only problem is we don't have anywhere near the technology to build it yet.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:29:20 PM , Rating: 3
> "My biggest beef with the idea, of course, is the potential for an accident. "

Do you realize we've *already* had multiple accidents with rockets carrying nuclear materials -- Apollo 13 is the most well-known example. The unused lunar lander was carried back to Earth, where it and its nuclear cargo (a few kg of plutonium inside a SNAP-27 RTG) entered the atmosphere in uncontrolled descent. The lander burned up, but the SNAP module survived reentry, and landed harmlessly in the ocean.

Nuclear reactors can be built with incredibly strong shielding packages. Surviving even the most catastrophic of launch failures isn't that difficult, even with 1960s technology. With current materials, its a piece of cake.

> "Anyways, I'm still more into the concept of a magnetic launch"

A great idea for bulk materials that can withstand the g forces. But wholly impossible for ever launching humans into space.


RE: Why it's important
By Ringold on 7/23/2008 12:12:57 PM , Rating: 5
quote:
A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum.


It worked in Space Balls.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:40:34 PM , Rating: 3
> "Can you point to any studies on nuclear rockets and weight-to-impulse ratios..."

Chemical rockets run about 250-450 seconds of specific impulse. The crudest nuclear rocket would generate about 850 seconds, all the way up to 5000+ seconds for advanced designs.

That may not sound like a huge difference...but one look at the ideal rocket equation proves otherwise. An increase of 10X in specific impulse can mean 100X the lifting power.

> "A boxy, flat-sided school bus isn't exactly the best shape for withstanding an internal pressure vs. external vacuum"

Of course; the statement was intended to prove a point, not as a serious proposal.


RE: Why it's important
By Janooo on 7/23/2008 6:10:46 PM , Rating: 2
Complete BS. You wouldn't have enough fuel to reach Ve (escape velocity) at 2G.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/23/2008 6:50:14 PM , Rating: 2
> "Complete BS. You wouldn't have enough fuel to reach Ve (escape velocity) at 2G."

With a propulsion system with an Isp of 3000 seconds or more, you must assuredly would. You do the math. The equation you want is:

Delta v = (g*Isp) ln (m0/m1) - (g*t)

delta v for an LEO launch is 7.8 km/s, g is the acceleration due to gravity, Isp is the specific impulse of the engine, m0 is initial mass (payload+reaction mass), m1 is final mass (payload), and t is the boost time.


RE: Why it's important
By Janooo on 7/23/2008 11:14:46 PM , Rating: 1
The size of a tank for 3000s is unrealistic. That's your problem.


RE: Why it's important
By masher2 (blog) on 7/24/2008 9:14:04 AM , Rating: 2
Eh? You don't understand the concept of specific impulse. It has nothing to do with "tank size".

Isp is a metric that measures the efficiency of your reaction mass, roughly equivalent to its exit velocity. Rockets function by throwing reaction mass out the rear, using Newton's third law. The higher the exit velocity, the less mass is required to impart a specific change in velocity.


RE: Why it's important
By bongsi21 on 7/23/2008 11:57:37 AM , Rating: 2
In achieving greatness you have to prepare to sacrifice

Like they say, in every seed you plant there will come
a day that the seeds will be fruiton to its highest bloom.

Support the ISS for the next frontier of mankind and leap boundaries!!!!


RE: Why it's important
By afkrotch on 7/24/2008 4:16:18 AM , Rating: 2
Fck it. Add some rockets on the ISS and push it to Mars and place it into orbit. Create a 2nd ISS and leave that one in Earth's orbit. After that invent some type of high speed transport vehicle between the two.

Add in a string and cups for telecommunications. That'll lower costs.


RE: Why it's important
By Treckin on 7/25/2008 3:06:36 AM , Rating: 2
I LOL'd...


RE: Why it's important
By Moishe on 7/23/2008 9:14:36 AM , Rating: 2
As others have said, the building of the ISS alone as been a huge gain in knowledge and provides a great place to learn and grow.

That being said, science does not exist in a vacuum and it MUST rely on finances from outside. Financial consideration makes the world go around whether we like it or not. The ISS partners should be leasing lab space to private corporations who might want to use the labs. They should be doing all they can to put experiments onboard so that what is there is being used. That may mean lowering cost, lowering standards, whatever.

No matter what, this things needs to be built and used a much as possible. Hell, paint the Coca-Cola logo on the side for cash.


RE: Why it's important
By Ringold on 7/23/2008 12:08:12 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
It's an exercise for many of the best engineers that the world can muster. Once it's finished, then the world of astro-faring nations can focus its collective attention on the next great lunar challenge.


China is not a partner in the ISS, and Apollo had no space station experience to build upon, and yet Apollo got the job done and China is currently outpacing us in lunar aspirations.

There may be other justifications, but this one just doesn't seem to hold any water. In fact, the way you say it, it sounds more like welfare for engineers.


RE: Why it's important
By djc208 on 7/24/2008 8:58:45 AM , Rating: 2
And unless they're not doing any research on board, it's not a reasonable assumption to denounce it because they haven't found the cure for cancer or solved free energy yet. Every university and science lab across the world is doing research every day, but the results are usually baby steps and can takes years to yield solid data. It may take till 2015 to start seeing the results of research on the ISS hit the "streets" of the average person.


We need a Moon Base
By ZimZum on 7/23/2008 8:19:41 AM , Rating: 2
A bunch of people orbiting in a glorified tin can. Who have no access to deodorant or running water for months on end, ewwww, no thanks. No, we need to focus on setting up a moon base. No problems with Bone and Muscle wasting. Virtually an endless supply of Helium-3. And at only 1/6th the earths gravity, chubbo's like myself will finally be able to dunk a basketball. Plus from my old sci-fi novels, I understand the moon babes are quite amorous.




RE: We need a Moon Base
By Radnor on 7/23/2008 9:25:08 AM , Rating: 2
Before you can Run, or Walk for that matter, you need to know how to crawl. Crawling is boring and slow, but it is necessary.

I hope they find more uses for the ISS and that the ISS does its job of teaching us how to crawl. Time/money sink ? Maybe. Necessary time/money sink. Without a doubt. I look forward for the completion of the ISS and further endeavors.

But if you like trees, deodorant, running water, well mate, space isn't much your type.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By Ringold on 7/23/2008 12:30:01 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Necessary time/money sink. Without a doubt.


Second time I've seen it in the discussion, but no particular explanation. Is it just the science experiments? Of those experiments, how many couldn't be done elsewhere?

The key thing I think we've really learned from the ISS as far as operational or space development goes is..

a) The government can't design a transmission box for the Osprey, why did we think they could do a space station

b) The government tossed aside the idea of inflatable modules. Due to Bigelow, we now know that is possibly the best way to go. Thanks, NASA, for showing us what not to do.

In other words, we've rediscovered a common truth about any government project, manifested in costs and lost time. Libertarians have been saying the government is ill-suited for anything beyond law enforcement and defense since at least Adam Smith, in the modern tradition anyway. (He probably stole the idea)

Meanwhile, China has avoided the entire orbital boondoggle business, and outpace us all. We're even underperforming our former 1950s and 1960s selves.

Just playing some devils advocate myself here, but only to a degree; I really don't see huge value in the ISS. I still want to see it go on, but not because of scientific value, but because (like Iraq) once we start something involving allies I vastly prefer we finish the job to maintain our honor, integrity, etc. While maintaining our credibility, might as well squeeze what we can out of it now... but going back, I think we'd be far better off if the ISS had been aborted early on.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By maven81 on 7/23/2008 2:53:08 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Meanwhile, China has avoided the entire orbital boondoggle business, and outpace us all. We're even underperforming our former 1950s and 1960s selves.

I think you're forgetting two things here, first China did express interest in making their own space station, so they may have avoided it for now, but maybe not for long. But second, from what I can tell their designs are significantly relying on copied, or bought russian technology. The only reason they are where they are is because someone has done the homework for them.
Of course the problem for us is that when everyone possesses the same, or similar technology, all that's necessary to succeed is the will and the money. Unfortunately we have neither, and China has both.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By Ringold on 7/23/2008 9:16:30 PM , Rating: 2
So, they once had interest, but realized perhaps it was a money hole and avoided it. I had forgot any interest of theirs, but that only strengthens my notion that they know how to get ahead.

Also, we're drawing from experience with Apollo-like designs and more modern equipment from the ongoing shuttle program. China has no inherent advantage in ripping off the Soyuz, if that is what they are doing.

You did hit on a real issue, though. We lack the will and therefore the money. That's not what I was going after though; I was going after what real use the ISS really serves to justify its ongoing existence that couldn't be done in another way -- beyond the issue that our honor as international partners is on the line.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By djc208 on 7/24/2008 9:30:04 AM , Rating: 2
I think the problem most times is that it seems to be the "government" trying to do the devlopment. How top heavy have all these projects become?
These representatives spend too much time trying to "help" engineer and oversee the project when the closest most of them ever got to engineering was when they walked past the buildings in college or drank with one at a frat party.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By Solandri on 7/23/2008 2:15:41 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Before you can Run, or Walk for that matter, you need to know how to crawl. Crawling is boring and slow, but it is necessary.

I'd argue that the ISS is trying to run before we can walk (or crawl). On a per dollar basis, unmanned space exploration has produced orders of magnitude more science than the manned program. Rocket technology has pretty much peaked out - you're not going to get much better efficiencies unless you go nuclear. So research is instead shifting back to planes which can fly into space. Funny how that's what the U.S. was doing with it's X-15 program before the Soviets launched Sputnik and we got sucked into a "cost is no object" race.

I'm all for a manned space program. But currently we devote way too much money to actually putting man (and their support structures like the ISS) into space. We need to be spending that money on things like new propulsion technologies, space planes which can fly to altitude aerodynamically (and thus efficiently) instead of ballistlicly, self-sustaining environments that'll be necessary for multi-month or multi-year voyages away from resupply, finding some material which is strong enough to construct a space elevator, etc. Our current manned space program is a relic of the cold war where image and being first took precedence over cost, mundane efficiency, and long-term sustainability.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By maven81 on 7/23/2008 3:27:08 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Funny how that's what the U.S. was doing with it's X-15 program before the Soviets launched Sputnik and we got sucked into a "cost is no object" race.


While you made some excellent points, I think this one is misguided. The X-15 didn't fly until after sputnik, and as neat as it was it was more rocket with a man stuffed inside then space plane. If your goal is simply to reach orbit I guess that works, but it could never compete with an actual spacecraft.
I think the space race is actually what allowed things to get done... it's when there was no race anymore that things went into a totally wrong direction. The space shuttle, which didn't have a clear reason for existence, had no chance of doing anything outside low earth orbit, and never fulfilled it's goals of cheap space travel.
Unfortunately the space station is in a similar predicament... it's almost as if the countries are now saying hmm... well now that we've sunk all this money and built this thing... what are we going to do with it?


RE: We need a Moon Base
By Master Kenobi (blog) on 7/23/2008 9:46:44 AM , Rating: 2
Due to the low gravity, the muscle degeneration is still present, just less so than on the ISS.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By wordsworm on 7/23/2008 10:24:53 AM , Rating: 2
Well, if you're going to be a permanent resident of the moon, it shouldn't pose too much of a problem - it's only on returning to earth.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By snownpaint on 7/23/2008 11:04:50 AM , Rating: 2
I agree the ISS is a part of the process of development to get to the next level. The Space race did amazing things to take humans to the next level in technology. (We are using an example now) It may be in a stagnate state at this moment, but little experiences can prevent major disasters in future missions. "Like touching the hot plate before you decide to put your face on it"

Though, I feel, the launch system still needs some major refinement and upgrades. We seem to have the space hospitality running smooth and in top form, however, getting things to it is still inefficient and subject to long pre-fight time and setups. I don't think Nuclear Rockets is a way to go. They may be powerful, but I don't like the idea of radioactive rockets blowing up and raining down on earth. (snit happens, I know some satellites have reactors in them) Keep the nuclear stuff on the ground and behind thick slabs of concrete.


RE: We need a Moon Base
By PhoenixKnight on 7/23/2008 11:11:14 PM , Rating: 2
Hold on Tubby, you're not on the moon, yet.


Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By 325hhee on 7/23/08, Rating: -1
RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By Suntan on 7/23/2008 12:21:40 PM , Rating: 3
I wish I saved my last rating to rate your simple minded, often incorrect, rant down.

Good thing other people in history were not as simple minded in their endeavors.

Lastly, I’d rather they put my tax dollars into the ISS than the umpteen thousand handouts they give to all the lazy slobs that can’t be arsed to go out and get a job.

-Suntan


RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By maven81 on 7/23/2008 12:37:48 PM , Rating: 2
That odd rant of yours doesn't really warrant a response, but this just rubbed me the wrong way.

quote:
What can be done on a moon base that can't be on the ISS?


Seriously? Manufacturing (the base is bound to be far larger then any space station, giving you lots of room for a facility with abundant vacuum and low gravity). Eventually this would even allow you to build spacecraft there too... Much easier to launch things from the moon then from earth. Mining... not just He3 mind you. Astronomy and other science as the far side of the moon is perfectly shielded from the earth's radio interference, and telescopes on the moon don't have a pesky atmosphere to deal with. That's not to mention that you could do plenty of research on geology and so on.

By the way, as far as your concern about fusion reactors goes, we've experimented with them for decades. Not a single one ever exploded.


RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By Suntan on 7/23/2008 3:27:18 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
What can be done on a moon base that can't be on the ISS?


Some closed minded DB back in the Spanish court, circa 1490…

"Seriously Your Highness, what could those individuals do over on some continent that we couldn’t do floating on a boat in the harbor?"

-Suntan


RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By foolsgambit11 on 7/23/2008 2:00:41 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
Establishing a base on the moon, really don't have anymore benefits than the ISS, plus you'd have to plant it somewhere, it's going to be either on the dark side, or light side of the moon. To subject someone with total light all the time is not healthy, same as the opposite.


"There is no dark side of the moon, really. As a matter of fact, it's all dark." - Pink Floyd

No, but seriously. No part of the moon is constantly in light or dark. We always see the same side of the moon, but that has nothing to do with the moon's relation to the sun, only its relation to us. And the side we always see is sometimes light and sometimes dark. So there is no dark side of the moon, QED. (It is true, however, that days would be longer (say, 29 days or so instead of 24 hours))

I know, correcting just this error in the post is like picking up a piece of trash in a landfill, but I had to say it.


RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By Fronzbot on 7/23/2008 3:35:17 PM , Rating: 2
But if there's no dark side of the moon then where do all the moon monsters live?


RE: Ok, gonna play Devil's advocate
By DASQ on 7/23/2008 5:14:57 PM , Rating: 2
Under your bed and in your closet.


By elessar1 on 7/23/2008 5:53:57 PM , Rating: 2
At Monsters Inc.???

Cheers...


By oTAL (blog) on 7/24/2008 5:28:22 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
What makes people think a Fusion reactor would be any better, if she blows, it'll be just as bad as a nuclear reactor.


Well... you lost all credibility there...


"So if you want to save the planet, feel free to drive your Hummer. Just avoid the drive thru line at McDonalds." -- Michael Asher

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