Facebook could be in trouble if it continues making sweeping changes
Social networking went mainstream thanks to MySpace – most teens
and many tech savvy people of all ages began using the site before
rivals like Facebook had even hit the web. Today MySpace has been
vastly outpaced by Facebook in user numbers.
Facebook's user
base is ballooning in the U.S. and around the world with teens to
older adults flocking to the service to keep in touch with family,
friends and meet new people. Reuters reports that some believe
that Facebook is close
to achieving "technological lock in" of its dominance.
Technological lock in is the idea that as society gets used to using
technology, users are less and less likely to switch
technologies.
UCLA student Alyssa Ravasio told Reuters,
"I think Facebook is the most valuable Internet commodity in
existence, more so than Google, because they are positioning
themselves to be our online identity via Facebook connect." She
continued saying, "It's your real name, it's your real friends,
and assuming they manage to navigate the privacy quagmire, they're
poised to become your universal login," she said. "I would
almost argue that Facebook is the new mobile phone. It's the new
thing you need to keep in touch, almost a requirement of modern
social life."
One example of a technological lock in
that Reuters cites is something that most of us will be
familiar with -- the QWERTY keyboard. People have stuck with QWERTY
layout since it was invented in the 1870's despite alternative
layouts for keyboards that some feel are superior.
According
to Comscore, Facebook had 112 million unique visitors in the U.S. in
December compared to the 57 million MySpace visitors and 20 million
for Twitter. A technological lock in is not guaranteed for Facebook
though. UCLA professor of communications studies Tim Groeling said,
"It's their [Facebook's] game to lose at this point."
Facebook
could lose users if it continues to anger its user base with sudden
sweeping changes along the lines of the changes it recently made
to its privacy settings. The changes were a way for Facebook to
get more traffic in the ramp up to monetize the site.
Ravasio
warns, "All these [internet] companies saying they'll figure out
how to monetize later seem to be forgetting that 'monetizing' has
historically always meant a degradation of user experience quality."
"Young lady, in this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics!" -- Homer Simpson
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