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These are just a couple of figures in ExxonMobil's insight through 2040

ExxonMobil said it plans to invest $185 billion in energy projects over the next five years, and has given its insight on what the future of energy looks like through 2040.

ExxonMobil has released its report, "The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040," which takes a look at some energy challenges and predictions for the coming decades.

The report sees the global population increasing from 7 billion people today to about 9 billion in 2040. With this population bump, energy demand will grow 35 percent worldwide (65 percent in developing nations alone compared to 2010).

The report said automotive technology like hybrid cars are expected to keep global personal transportation energy demands steady for the most part. By 2025, it sees full hybrid prices coming down and these types of vehicles accounting for 40 percent of the global vehicle fleet by 2040. However, plug-in hybrids and electrics will likely only make up five percent of the market by 2040.

Vehicles will move away from gasoline as the No. 1 transportation choice thanks to tech like light-duty engine efficiency, and see an increase in diesel fuel instead. In fact, diesel will make up 70 percent of fuel demand growth through 2040.

CO2 emissions in OECD countries will be 20 percent lower in 2040 than 2010.


Also due to the population increase, electricity generation will be in great demand over the decades. In fact, ExxonMobil says it will account for more than half of the increase in global energy demand (electricity demand alone will grow 85 percent from 2010 to 2040). Electricity and natural gas will account for more than 60 percent of the world's residential/commercial energy demand by 2040 as cleaner fuels are used.

Oil will remain the No. 1 global fuel while natural gas steals coal's spot for second place. The report said coal will peak, and then decline as nuclear power and renewable energy grows. Oil and gas will supply about 60 percent of the global energy demand in 2040 (a 55 percent increase from 2010).

At 2040, North America will likely go from net importer to net exporter of oil. With growing demand and an evolving energy landscape, more global trade opportunities will arise.

A couple of other highlights include a 50 percent increase in energy demand for chemical production, and nuclear/natural gas generation in non OECD countries will increase by 150 percent.

Source: ExxonMobil



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Well, duh!
By Lord 666 on 3/12/2013 3:01:17 PM , Rating: 4
All of the diesel owners on this forum have said this for years; better fuel, higher efficiencies, and lower emissions.

Do not need an a press release for this.




RE: Well, duh!
By Skywalker123 on 3/12/13, Rating: 0
RE: Well, duh!
By Uncle on 3/13/2013 12:30:02 AM , Rating: 2
I only have one question. Will Monsanto and corn or some derivative be involved with diesel fuel production.


RE: Well, duh!
By marvdmartian on 3/12/2013 3:54:51 PM , Rating: 2
Also, usually, higher maintenance and repair costs. Don't forget, there's 2 sides to every coin!


RE: Well, duh!
By Reclaimer77 on 3/12/2013 4:28:33 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
All of the diesel owners on this forum have said this for years


Yes and they've been mostly European. Unfortunately diesel just doesn't work in America that well currently. EPA mandates make it impossible to produce diesel engines at a competitive cost. The diesel fuel taxes are outrageous, pushing diesel to nearly $1 more per gallon. The cars themselves are thousands of dollars more on top of all this.

Because of these factors, Exxon's report is wildly optimistic. Unless major policy changes happen in our Government, do not expect diesel passenger vehicles to outpace gasoline ones.


RE: Well, duh!
By kleinma on 3/12/2013 4:47:29 PM , Rating: 3
I don't think the exxon report is being optimistic. It is just how they are showing the numbers:

quote:
In fact, diesel will make up 70 percent of fuel demand growth through 2040.


the key word there is growth. It isn't saying that 70 percent of fuel demand will be for diesel, it is saying that from now until 2040, 70% of the ADDITIONAL fuel needed versus what is currently being produced will be diesel. We would need to see gas vs diesel figures for today to see how level that 70% of growth demand makes the playing field. If currently they are refining 3 to 4 times the amount of gas as they are diesel right now, then gas would still be number one in overall consumption.


RE: Well, duh!
By maugrimtr on 3/13/2013 10:15:12 AM , Rating: 2
The numbers are not US based. The diesel growth may well occur in the rest of the world where the efficiencies have not been taxed out of existence.


RE: Well, duh!
By Mint on 3/12/13, Rating: -1
RE: Well, duh!
By Reclaimer77 on 3/12/2013 7:21:43 PM , Rating: 2
Why don't you rage more kid?

quote:
Until we implement a tamper-proof system of tracking big rig mileage, diesel damn well should be taxed far more than gasoline.


Where did I say it shouldn't be? I was simply pointing out the, obvious, barriers to mass diesel adoption for passenger vehicles.

You need to turn off your attack radar, chill out, and stop looking to take everything out of context.


RE: Well, duh!
By freedom4556 on 3/13/2013 6:03:53 PM , Rating: 1
Another factor is that gasoline is now watered down 10% with free (i.e., subsidized) ethanol, which drives down the price at least that much compared to diesel. That's worth 35¢ or 40¢ extra at the moment right there.


RE: Well, duh!
By Lord 666 on 3/13/2013 6:55:13 PM , Rating: 2
While reducing petrol fuel economy by about 20%. Its not free, taxes pay for it.


RE: Well, duh!
By Lord 666 on 3/12/2013 9:58:35 PM , Rating: 2
Policy change has nothing to do with what Americans purchase. In fact and to keep things easy, look through all of the diesel articles of DT in the past 12 months. Ford just stated if there was a demand, they would start producing diesel passenger vehicles. The new Cherokee (2014) and Ram come in diesel, but why skip over the minivan, who knows why.

Over 50% of all Volkswagens sold in the US are diesel. This lead to only the sixth time ever yearly sales have surpassed 300,000. They even just showcased their diesel hybrid three row SUV and sports car concept.

Anyway, my point is most Americans just have misconceptions stuck in their head from when diesels where dirty and slow while unable to see long term concepts.


RE: Well, duh!
By Reclaimer77 on 3/12/13, Rating: 0
RE: Well, duh!
By Reclaimer77 on 3/12/2013 10:25:04 PM , Rating: 1
And why the hell would I buy a VW, and suffer their horrible reliability and maintenance costs, when I could just buy a Mazda 3 for example?

Is the extra 3 MPG from the Jetta TDI worth the extra cost and horrible reliability ratings? I don't think so personally.

Seriously look up VW if you think I'm exaggerating. Pretty much every reputable source has them ranked at or near the bottom in quality and reliability.

I'm sorry but you've gotta get over this stigma that diesel fuel is the Holy Grail of the automotive world. I have nothing against the fuel, but if it's not in my best interests to go diesel, I'm not. In Europe the Government has structured the taxes so that it IS in your best interest to buy diesel. But here that's not the case. The cars have to compete on their own merits, which to be honest, haven't been that great so far.


RE: Well, duh!
By Lord 666 on 3/12/2013 11:13:28 PM , Rating: 2
I'm in NJ, born there too, but with foreign business travel including DoD. Huge proponent of the second amendment and eagle scout. Not bashing the United States, not even close actually. However, the average citizen cannot think past the next episode on the tube let alone ROI.

Agreed, diesel cars cost more to purchase and fuel. In NJ, its about 30 cents more per gallon and my oil change this past Sunday was $90 on the TDI for car whose sticker was 31,000 in 2006. As you said, any decent car nowadays should last at least 100,000. Agreed, mine has 150,000 on it and plan to run it until it completely dies, but even then the parts are worth something. I broke even around year four and we are on year seven. Business people would call that investment.

In fact, my CFO hates whenever I drive for business somewhere at 0.56 a mile since he knows it only costs me $57 to fill it once for a 500 mile round trip drive. Even factoring in 0.15 per mile ownership cost (its really less, but whatever), still works out to be $150 profit. Do that several times a year and its real money. In my case, its about $1000 unrealized extra revenue per year over the past seven years.

Almost all of the Jetta's I see on the interstate are TDIs with most of the Passats as well for good reason... diesels are highly efficient at constant RPM interstate driving. This Passat did 1600 miles on a single tank - http://news.discovery.com/autos/drive/2012-vw-pass...

Sure, say whatever you want about VW. Fair enough, but right now they are the only cost conscious diesel option and more than half of their business is from diesel so they are doing something right. Chrysler is bringing on more diesels, all Audis will be soon enough, and MB always has a fair share. Honda missed the boat and plus you mentioned Mazda, still waiting for them as it would be interesting to see. Whatever happened to Nissan's plans? Ford too is missing the boat while they are getting laughed at for the miserable claimed economy. Hyundai should make a diesel, especially since they were also caught making false mileage claims.


RE: Well, duh!
By keith524 on 3/13/2013 9:55:42 AM , Rating: 2
Just pulling the MSRP off the VW website a base Jetta is $20,845 then you add in TDI and it's $26,225. That's 22mpg standard versus 31mpg for the TDI variant. Then using the national average diesel is $0.377 higher than gas. That means you break even at around 145,000 miles. If you put 15k per year on your car that's 9 years to break even. That's a piss poor ROI for most people. In fact most people would never break even. If you drive a lot then it might work for you but the vast majority of people the TDI is a bad deal.

Just for comparison I looked at the Ford Fusion Hybrid and it's base price is $27,200 and 47mpg. That means you break even at 75k miles which is much more achievable.


RE: Well, duh!
By Lord 666 on 3/13/2013 5:46:23 PM , Rating: 2
As you noted, it all depends on the use case. Road warriors with high percentages of interstate driving have a faster return than around-town usage.

Not sure about your numbers though. The VW site has the price of a stripped Jetta TDI for 24,155 while the Ford Fusion Hybrid starts at 27,200. Sure, its not an apples to apples comparision due to the options difference, but the ROI definitely changes. I am a definite fan of the new Fusion looks, but based on Ford's recent mileage claims and proven real-world mpg performance of VW diesels, its also not a fair armchair hypermiler comparsion. On paper vs reality, the numbers are different.

For my use case and at 25,000 miles per year, the best car would be a plug-in diesel hybrid followed by a pure diesel.


200+ MPG
By talikarni on 3/12/2013 3:31:25 PM , Rating: 1
With todays technology, it is easily possible to create an engine for a full size truck that still has 400 horsepower but gets 200+ miles per gallon. It has been out there for at least 10 years... but big oil and the auto manufacturers have kept it hidden and bought out similar or competing patents to keep it buried...
Do some digging through the patent system, you will see some still viewable online, while others have used their money and people in DC to "hide" them from the easiest methods of viewing the patents (online, libraries).




RE: 200+ MPG
By kleinma on 3/12/2013 4:49:57 PM , Rating: 2
I know your tin foil hat is on really tight, but if you are going to float conspiracy theories, then why don't YOU provide the links instead of making claims and then telling people to go do research if they want to see for themselves. Provide proof in your ramblings and people might attempt to take you seriously.


RE: 200+ MPG
By Dorkyman on 3/13/2013 4:19:29 PM , Rating: 2
Best post of the week. I nearly blew my breakfast cereal out my nose!

Heck, 200+ mpg is nothing. Now that you've let the cat out of the bag (better check your car for bombs every time you get in) it's probably okay now to inform everyone that we've invented a new and improved version of that engine that gets 400+ mpg! Plus, it makes pure water as a byproduct, and furthermore it eats up atmospheric CO2 like candy. We've been afraid to make much noise about our new technology, but now I guess it's safe to do so.

Hint: "Flux Capacitor"


What ExxonMobil is saying is...
By Beenthere on 3/13/2013 2:34:06 AM , Rating: 2
...that they are going to continue to rape consumers, especially Diesel consumers, as much as possible for the next 30+ years - bacause they can.

Diesel engines are not more expensive to produce than equal quality gas engines. Diesel fuel is not more expensive to produce than gasoline. There is no shortage of crude oil or gasoline. You can buy all you want for $5/gal. in the U.S. or higher elsewhere where local taxation increases the price.

The only reason gasoline prices are this high is because consumers pay these prices. If consumers stopped buying fuel for 2 weeks every storage facility on the planet would be over-flowing and the price of gasoline would drop to record low prices.

Most people have never taken an economics class in their life and they don't understand the laws of supply and demand do work - if you work them. The oil companies are using these laws to exploit you.

The sad reality is that most people live too comfortably and they are unwilling to experience a short term inconvenience for long term lower energy prices. The oil companies understand this and use it for price gouging. THAT is why they can rape the public and get away with it. Stupidity abounds in the consumer segment of society.




By Dorkyman on 3/13/2013 4:33:06 PM , Rating: 2
Wow. You really should take one of those Econ classes you talk about.

So, people stop buying fuel, and then prices collapse. Got it. But you're oblivious to part two of that situation. When people start buying fuel again, everything reverts to how things were before.

And yeah, the oil companies are "using" the law of supply and demand. We all are. It's not good and it's not bad. It just is.

Finally, I am impressed that you are so brilliant in multiple areas that you can claim with certainty that (a) diesel fuel is no more expensive to produce than gasoline and (b) ditto for diesel versus gas engines. You could teach Detroit a thing or two.


All Electric by 2040
By mjv.theory on 3/13/2013 9:12:00 AM , Rating: 2
Prediction: By 2040 90%+ of all new vehicles worldwide will be all-electric.

Prediction: By 2050 90%+ of all new vehicles will be autonomous, with steering wheel and pedals removed.




RE: All Electric by 2040
By Dr of crap on 3/13/2013 1:00:22 PM , Rating: 2
Really - 90%, and since you know so much which stock should I buy for 2040 to make a billion dollars???

In 27 years, 2040, electric cars will still be a small segment of the cars sold.

"The report said automotive technology like hybrid cars are expected to keep global personal transportation energy demands steady for the most part. By 2025, it sees full hybrid prices coming down and these types of vehicles accounting for 40 percent of the global vehicle fleet by 2040. However, plug-in hybrids and electrics will likely only make up five percent of the market by 2040."

From here -
http://www.dailytech.com/ExxonMobil+Energy+Report+...

Please don't spread you crystal ball pridictions any more.


Thorium LFTR
By Kurz on 3/12/2013 3:29:42 PM , Rating: 2
Google the title of this post for a first look into a pleniful energy future.




Optimistic?
By CaedenV on 3/13/2013 4:29:07 PM , Rating: 2
Perhaps I am a bit optimistic, but I would think that by 2040 we would have relatively cheap all electric cars a bit more readily available, and cheap enough that they would sell like hot cakes. On the other end I always imagined hybrid vehicles to be just a stepping stone between ICE and electric cars, and that once relatively cheap electric vehicles become available that hybrids would simply 'go away' somehow. Nothing against hybrids (my next car will probably be a hybrid), but one would think that if someone was looking at a hybrid vs an electric that is just a few K more that the hybrid market would just dry up.




Sooo then...
By msheredy on 3/12/13, Rating: -1
RE: Sooo then...
By Kurz on 3/12/2013 1:55:44 PM , Rating: 1
http://www.captainscomments.com/images/633-gaspric...

Perhaps you should be wondering what the government does to fuel prices.


RE: Sooo then...
By drycrust3 on 3/12/2013 3:06:25 PM , Rating: 2
According to the article, America currently imports more oil than it exports, so the price at the pump is governed to some extent by the strength of the American dollar. If the American dollar continues to weaken, then even if everything else remained equal the price you pay at the pump in America would rise. The oil companies aren't responsible for this.
There is a belief that world wide oil production peaked about the year 2000, meaning world wide production is now declining, so expect the price of oil to increase even more. You can argue all day as to how much the oil companies are responsible for this, but the cheap to access oil is pretty much gone, leaving just the expensive stuff, meaning the oil extractors just won't sell their oil to those wanting to pay cheap prices.
Add to all this the fact the human population is expected to increase by roughly 30% by 2040, meaning increased demand.
If the value of the currency where you live declines in value compared to the rest of the world, then you will pay even more than if the value of your currency remains strong, but regardless the price for oil based products will increase.


RE: Sooo then...
By kleinma on 3/12/2013 4:55:34 PM , Rating: 2
Peak oil is not real. The concept is real, but the reality is not. Not yet anyway.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/04/opinion/frum-peak-oi...


RE: Sooo then...
By Solandri on 3/12/2013 4:07:05 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
...lower the price of it BITCHES! It is after all the cheapest fuel, commonly available, to produce.


- Per unit of energy, natural gas is cheaper, mainly because it's a gas and a PITA to handle and transport. Oil companies routinely just burn off any natural gas which comes up the oil pumps, instead of capturing it for sale later.

- Very little of the price you pay for gasoline is under the control of the oil companies. The vast majority of your $4 for a gallon of gas goes to the country/landowner where the oil was pumped out of the ground.
http://fuelfix.com/files/2011/08/gasEIA.jpg

Lowering the price is part of the reason why we're so involved in Middle Eastern politics - to promote stability so production is steady (whether it be as a democracy or dictatorship doesn't seem to matter, as long as it's stable). Unfortunately many people don't grasp this connection and want the government to try to lower gas prices while simultaneously withdrawing from Middle Eastern politics.


RE: Sooo then...
By CaedenV on 3/13/2013 2:49:08 PM , Rating: 2
The spice must flow


"Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn." -- Seagate CEO Bill Watkins














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