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Electronic Arts expects PS3 to sell better than Xbox 360

Massive games publisher Electronic Arts released estimates placing PlayStation 3 ahead of Xbox 360 in sales throughout 2008, reported GamesIndustry.

According to the publisher, Sony’s console will make major gains in Europe, where it expects between 5 and 6 million PlayStation 3s sold in the year. In contrast, EA thinks the Xbox 360 will sell just 1.5 to 2.5 million units.

EA believes that PlayStation 3 will be able to tie the Xbox 360 in North America, both selling 4.5 to 5.5 consoles each in 2008. With Europe and North American numbers combined, however, the PlayStation 3 is expected to take a 3.5 million sales lead for the year.

While EA is betting on the PlayStation 3, the games company has had its share of challenges developing games for the system. Several of its sports titles, such as Madden NFL and NHL, run at smoother framerates.

At a recent investor conference call, EA CEO John Riccitiello said that developers were “still experiencing some delay on the PS3,” but added that multiplatform games made first on Sony’s system, such as Burnout Paradise, posed fewer problems. “There still remains some catching up to do on the engineering side for the PS3,” said Riccitiello.

Not surprisingly, the Wii is predicted by EA to be the top seller again for the second year in a row, with 12 to 13 million in 2008. The portable systems are also expected to continue high sales, with the DS hitting 14 to 16 million and the PSP to sell 6 to 8 million. The PlayStation 2 will carry out its long tail with 3.9 to 4.9 million.

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Bluray Player/Living Room Appliances
By rupaniii on 2/4/2008 9:32:54 PM , Rating: 1
These are the only Bluray players 2.0 profile guaranteed or compatible.
Now, also, there is the fact that sony can short their BDP-S bluray players and get more sales that way on Bluray.
If they begin shipping it with the home theater remote it would help tremendously.

As games want/use more texture, the PS3 has a huge advantage.
We shall see if it is ever needed.




RE: Bluray Player/Living Room Appliances
By dubldwn on 2/5/2008 1:07:13 AM , Rating: 5
quote:
As games want/use more texture, the PS3 has a huge advantage.

No, we already figured that out. It won’t be. Crysis fits on one DVD, and it’s too uber for the consoles. Crytek says so. Do you know what would happen if Crysis was “optimized” for your PS3 and set to run at 1280x720? Your PS3 would step down from your shelf, walk to the middle of your carpet, squat down, and take a huge, huge dump. I’m afraid the GPU’s in today’s consoles are simply not ready for those kinds of textures. Maybe the next generation, with GPU’s that can push frames with said textures at 1920x1080, will benefit from Blu-ray. This, of course, is after Sony has done all the heavy lifting, taken all the shots while they were down, and Blu-ray drives are 20 bucks.

Oh, and if you want more maps, get a hard drive.


RE: Bluray Player/Living Room Appliances
By DingieM on 2/5/2008 5:13:02 AM , Rating: 4
Actually, truth is very much different.

Crysis is not very optimized even on a PC. That may well have to do because crysis had to run on many different systems, which makes game programming for the PC quite hard.
Opitmized and correctly programmed, Crysis will run just fine with great visual quality on the more expensive consoles.
And if crytek says so, it may very well have to do that they don't have a clue (yet) how to program efficiently for the consoles.
Crytek is by no means holy! If they can't manage it does not mean nobody can!
Granted the PC has the massive advantage of having lots of internal memory, but that is the major drawback: Games on PC's are inherently inefficient, also because of the humongous bloatware called Windows Vistaaaaaa and also XP.
I am willing to bet Gears Of War 2 will stand up against Crysis visually and may even surpass it...
Same counts for Killzone 2.

Point of playing games on a console is that you can play on the couch with a superior audio setup, relatively to what is available for PC, and on a large LCD TV.
With 720p on a LCD TV you can create gorgeous visuals, with high speed gameplay.
Games developers just have to know how to unlock the power on the consoles. And believe me, both PS3 and Xbox360 have lots of high bandwidth power to play with.
Don't tell me that 6 hardware threads on 3.2 GHz with a bandwith of ~25 Gb/s from CPU to GPU (with 192 unified shader engines on 500MHz) and bandwidth of 256Gb/s from GPU to GPU subsystem is too slow to achieve Crysis class graphics?
Don't tell me that 6 Cell PPE's on 3.2 GHz and a GPU (G70 class) on 500MHz is too slow to achieve Crysis class graphics?
Both can utilitze the hard drive, only MS and Sony have to give the green light for that.

A visually great game is not only achieved by textures anymore, it is about a bunch of textures, procedural geometry (consoles are designed for that), procedurally generated textures (consoles are designed for that), many types of lighting.
Things change...

quote:
As games want/use more texture, the PS3 has a huge advantage

Totally untrue: textural performance is determined by amounts of internal memory and how fast it can be streamed and processed from external storage to internal storage.
With this in mind, texture streaming is fastest from hard drive.
PS3 has advantage in procedurally generated textures above everything else.


RE: Bluray Player/Living Room Appliances
By Proteusza on 2/5/2008 6:01:49 AM , Rating: 2
The 360's GPU has 48 unified shaders and 192 pixel processors, not quite the same thing.

I dont doubt that, given more time to optimize for just 2 platforms, the boys at CryTek could do well. Nevertheless, remember that there is only so much extra speed you can get out of older hardware. CryTek may not have spent much time optimizing for older GPUs, but I will bet they spent lots of time optimizing for newer GPUs. What I mean to say is that performance on G80 class GPUs is about as good as its going to get.

That being said, 720p would be a low resolution were it on a PC, so perhaps that will allow Crytek to save enough bandwidth to allow Crysis to run okay.

About procedurally generated textures - I reckon in a few years time we wont even be using static textures anymore. Just shaders.


By powerincarnate on 2/5/2008 8:05:42 AM , Rating: 2
Crysis is an incredibly under optimized game for the PC. Like one person said, PC games tend to be under optimized. When you compare what consoles can do, and what PCs can do, Consoles often time achieve much more with much less hardware than the PC.

Don't bring up 1080P with crysis or 1920 x 1200. Don't even bring up 1680 x 1050. Most people run Crysis at 1280 x 720 or 768. this is with G80s, for example. I have a Geforce 8800 GTS 320, 6 GBs of Ram, E6600 intel core 2 duo CPU, despite all that, my system Chugs with high settings and 720P level resolution. Even at medium settings, things slow down often during firefights and alot of people on screen.

Remember Oblivion, if you were to compare equal PC and PS3 hardware, Obliviou would chug on the PC hardware, but runs mostly smooth and graphically beautiful on the PS3's hardware. How about Gears of Wars, on the 360 it's silky smooth, on equal PC hardware, it's extremely unoptimized and not as smooth. We could continue this for days. Despite all that, I don't believe the consoles would be able to get 1080P high setting visuals of crysis, but then again, NO GPU alive, no SLi or Crossfire GPU alive today, can do that. We'll have to wait for the 9 series nvidia cards, and if the projected 30% increase is true, even the next gen cards, won't be able to do it and the 10th series cards seem like when it's will be reality.


By jrb531 on 2/5/2008 4:09:04 PM , Rating: 2
The 360 has basically an ATI x1950XT inside it.

They are darn near identical. If a game can run on an x1950 with DX9 then it can run on a 360.

-JB


By DrKlahn on 2/5/2008 10:46:00 AM , Rating: 3
No the truth is that an underclocked 7800GTX with half the memory bandwidth of it's PC counterpart would have serious trouble with Crysis. And with a max texture size of 4096 (4MB) and 256MB of GPU memory, the only advantage the extra storage will give us is more FMV/cutscenes. The Cell, as good as it is, will have problems keeping all those SPE's busy. We are seeing the top programmers in the industry just now taking advantage of 2 cores effectively. Certainly the heavy optimization that consoles see will benefit the PS3, but hardware juggernaut it is not.


Makes sense
By ajfink on 2/4/2008 9:14:23 PM , Rating: 2
The 360 has already saturated a significant amount of its intended market, a market that is often more than willing to own more than one console. It's not surprising, terrifying, shocking, or bad. It's just common sense.

I own an Xbox 360 - love it and play it almost every day - and I might buy a PS3 for the Blu-Ray player and for use as a F@H monster. Four hundred dollars to play movies and fold, yup, and a hope that Killzone 2 is better than the original. Most PS3 exclusives are totally uninteresting in regard to my typically American gaming mentality, but to each there own - obviously.

I'm sure there will be other PS3 games that appeal to me at some point, so maybe the much-talked-about Tax Rebate will be funding a new electronics purchase.

We borrowed the money from China, and it may find its way back, via Japan.




RE: Makes sense
By ajfink on 2/4/2008 9:22:14 PM , Rating: 2
To reply to myself, it seems that the 360 will keep up its pace mostly because it will probably cut its price a bit, edging itself into lower price points and becoming a new way for the less console-enthusiastic people to get a bite.


RE: Makes sense
By Aloonatic on 2/5/2008 6:56:43 AM , Rating: 2
I'm not a big fan of following sales/shipped numbers but the following seems fairly obvious.

If you want an xBox360 you've probably already got one (especially in the US)

If you want a PS3 you may have one but you may also be waiting for price drops, which cheaper blue laser and general manufacturing cost reductions may well provide sometimes this year but there's no guarantee.

Also, there are (finally) a few half decent games coming out for the PS3 this year, so the no games argument can't be levelled at the PS3 for the first time.

There's simply more "room" for PS3 sales (especially in the US) and people are buying it as BD player too. Not sure how much use a PS3 bought as a BD player is to EA though?

For the record, I live in the UK, have a PS3 and finally bought a game (CoD4) the other day after having my console for nearly a year??? Console came with ridge racer (I hate that game) and Resistance when I got it.

Also, China owns us all and I hate their food, dam it!


Another prediction?
By BioRebel on 2/4/2008 8:54:19 PM , Rating: 3
Didnt they also predict the Pats winning the superbowl?




RE: Another prediction?
By onwisconsin on 2/4/2008 9:04:04 PM , Rating: 2
Yes they did, 38-30. First time IIRC it's been wrong


Fine I'll do the research
By Haltech on 2/4/2008 11:41:10 PM , Rating: 1
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_conte...

If you check the bottom picture, even though the 360 sold alot more becasue of the early launch it is still beating both the Wii and the PS3. With Wii with the only one having a chance to beat the 360 and the PS3 having no chance.
And some how I dont agree with EA




RE: Fine I'll do the research
By Shlong on 2/5/2008 3:16:38 PM , Rating: 2
I think the PS3 can beat 360 this year domestically in the US (mainly because of Metal Gear Solid). Worldwide I think the PS3 will outsell the 360. With the Wii outselling both domestically & worldwide.


RE: Fine I'll do the research
By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:07:09 PM , Rating: 2
My cousin and I predicted the PS3 woud probably outsell the 360 ( in worldwide sales ) by a 'bit' ..

A bit ? Well if EA even close and PS3 does outsell 360 by 360,000 units ( Say 7,000,000 360's AGAINST 7,360,000 PS3's FOR THE YEAR ) .. That being said.. 360 is ahead of PS3 by around 7 million units so far .. it would still be years before PS3's INSTALL BASE is EQUAL or GREATER then 360's ..

At a rate of 300K units this year, 500K the next , etc.. It would take many years for the PS3 to catch the 360.

I think within 3yrs though the next MS console will be out, which Sony would have to look outdated to. When PS2 was out they really didnt have much competition.


By TerranMagistrate on 2/4/2008 8:55:05 PM , Rating: 4
The PS3's greatest issue in the past was the cost of the unit for consumers, second being a generally lacking available lineup for the majority of 2007. Now both of those low points are going to be gone here in 2008.

In any case, the PS brand always seems to do exceedingly well regardless of the region it is sold in. The PS3 is looking to continue that trend.




I don't get why this matters.
By Domicinator on 2/6/2008 12:21:10 AM , Rating: 2
For several reasons:

1) Xbox 360 already has a great install base. Do you guys think it's going to get the Dreamcast treatment or something? There is no need to feel threatened by this statement from EA. The 360 will live out its intended lifespan and there will continue to be games for it. Xbox Live is immensely popular, and so is the 360 despite its early problems. That's a good sign.

2) PS3 HAS to make a comeback at some point. And it will. Things will come into equilibrium. Sony has made just as many blunders as Microsoft as far as hardware, in fact I'd say they're pretty much on an even playing field right now. There are good reasons to hate both companies at this point, but if you're a console gamer, you'll have to choose one or buy both.

3) Wii is a completely different animal than the PS3 or the 360. The elderly like to play it. Your parents like to play it. The games are completely different, and more geared toward that crowd. Of COURSE it's going to sell more. But true mainstream hardcore gamers don't want to play the Wii unless they have a PS3 or 360 as well to fall back on for the more intense gaming. Wii's sales numbers are NOT going to kill PS3 or 360, because it's not the same kind of machine and doesn't appeal to the same crowd. End of story. Yes, there will be some overlap, but that shouldn't really effect any of the platforms too much, in fact it will help them.

4) Why does it matter who "wins" unless you're an executive at MS or Sony? Both machines are great. I think Xbox 360 has a more robust library and online system, but that's just me. I love my 360 and all of my friends have them too, so it works out great.

So I guess I don't get why this is such a big issue with some of you. Me personally? I'm worried about PC gaming. If anything is in danger of extinction, it's the PC as a game platform. Since I'm primarily a PC gamer, that makes me very sad. But the writing is on the wall now more than it has ever been in the past 20 years. ALL of the console systems are doing their part in killing the PC.




By Snuffalufagus on 2/6/2008 5:36:51 AM , Rating: 2
For fuks sake I think you made a great post.
I tend to avoid these discussions because everyone who posts seems to (in my opinion) imply by their general fanatisism that the current next gen system that sells the most by year 'X' will be the only platform to come up with a future product. Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, and more than likely some other new contender (I'm thinking some of the brain power that helped launch the CMD64, Atari, etc...) will all have a subsequent hardware offering, and all of them will be better than what the same company offered this time around. Oddly enough this wil happen because progression in technologies not purely console related will make it possible, for a past example, without PC gaming the current consoles would not have half the graphics horsepower they have today.


Get act together EA ...
By Malhavoc on 2/4/2008 8:42:46 PM , Rating: 2
I wonder if this means that EA will stop putting out garbage ports for the PS3 anytime soon. After purchasing Fight Night: Round 3 and Skate, I decided to boycott any of their releases until some drastic changes. While the actual gameplay may be fun on these two games, I feel like I am playing on a Commodore 64 with the load times between session changes.

I'd purchased FN3 when I bought the machine and would have been very disappointed in the system if I had not also purchased Resistance FOM, to see that it wasn't the machine's fault.




Time will tell.
By Bigjee on 2/4/2008 10:05:24 PM , Rating: 2
Browsing the net i read a few days ago that there will be a 100gb version coming out that will cost $399 and the 40gb will cost $299. If this is true then I can very well say that EA is telling the truth. But I guess time will tell.




Isn't this good for Microsoft?
By doodler85 on 2/4/2008 10:10:32 PM , Rating: 2
With every console comes a cost to the manufacturer... if they sell less consoles but have a much larger and more active base, that's game profit.




By amandahugnkiss on 2/5/2008 4:04:28 AM , Rating: 2
have an excellent work environment, pay their employees well (not just management), and a whole slew of other shit that everyone who has ever worked for them or has worked in the industry knows is BS? If they BS their bread and butter this much how can anyone think they'd tell anyone outside the industry the truth?




By omnicronx on 2/5/2008 12:08:24 PM , Rating: 2
Ill believe it when I see it. The PS3 still lacks in the games department. For those like me that already have a 360, there are 1 maybe two good games to buy. I would know, as when i bought my ps3 it took me 20 minutes to choose a game. I ended up picking NBA 07.. played it once have not touched it since.

To be honest i see the ps3 gaining sales as a cheap BD player, nothing more. For gamers, the 360 is still going to be the more attractive product. More games, cheaper product, sometimes better quality (EA titles).

I would be willing to be that 360, and PS3 worldwide sales will be around even by the end of this year. I am guessing this is an EA PR move to push the ps3 so that they can put further development into the PS3, nothing more.




By darkblade33 on 2/5/2008 5:43:18 PM , Rating: 2
Lets give some very hopeful "ideal" figures to Sony.

Say Sony outsells 360 by 700k this year, 750k next year, 900k year after. This comes means Sony would've outsold M$ by 2.3 million during a 3 yr stretch.

Now we need to subtract that from 360's seven million console lead over PS3.

Do some math now:

Ah gee, PS3 is still behind 360 by 4.7 million units in total sales in 2010; the same year MS releases their new console to make PS3 look really outdated !

YAWNS ~




no way
By villageidiot111 on 2/4/08, Rating: -1
RE: no way
By IntelGirl on 2/4/08, Rating: -1
RE: no way
By inighthawki on 2/4/08, Rating: 0
RE: no way
By Manch on 2/5/08, Rating: 0
RE: no way
By daftrok on 2/4/2008 9:27:52 PM , Rating: 2
I would follow that trend more closely:

According to this chart, in the first 65 weeks the stats are as follows:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Al...

Xbox 360: 8,784,991
PS3: 9,709,046
Wii: 20,818,563
Obviously not a major difference but generally speaking the PS3 made one million more sales in its first 65 weeks than the 360 in its first 65 weeks.

Another major factor is the fact that there are a multitude of MAJOR exclusive titles for the PS3 coming in 2008. Some of which are:

Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy XIII
Gran Turismo 5
Killzone 2
Resistance 2
MLB '08: The Show
LittleBigPlanet

The 360 has exclusives are well though they aren't as well known as titles like Metal Gear or Final Fantasy or Gran Turismo. On top of that, the genre for games that the 360 has is not as widespread as the PS3. You don't have a game like LittleBigPlanet on the 360 or a racer as expansive as Gran Turismo.

Now I'm not predicting the future or anything because the market can change in a heartbeat. But I believe that the 360 needs to make a price cut in the not too distant future because the PS3 is catching up and now its RATE (not its TOTAL) of sales are surpassing the 360.


RE: no way
By mcturkey on 2/4/2008 11:40:18 PM , Rating: 3
Ahem. Gran Turismo 5 is not coming out in 2008. GT5 PROLOGUE is, which is a stripped-down version of the game that is only going to be selling for $40. It is extremely unlikely this will sell many systems, and certainly won't hit the 10+ million units that previous GT games have sold. FF XIII is not coming out in 2008, except possibly in Japan (even then, I doubt it) - I'll eat my own arm if we see it in the US or Europe before 09. MLB 08 isn't a system seller - the only sports game that moves systems in any significant number is Madden, but that's all platforms. The others you mention are valid, however, and will certainly help Sony.

A price cut on the 360 would be helpful, but at this point, having systems in stock would be even more helpful. In the US at least, most retailers seem to be out of stock on 360s.


RE: no way
By daftrok on 2/4/08, Rating: -1
RE: no way
By Farfignewton on 2/5/2008 12:11:51 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue is set for April 2008


April!? I swear I saw 20-22 of Feb somewhere. Which brings me to...

quote:
Gran Turismo 5 is set for Q4 2008.


I may be the pot, kettle, and cauldron calling the silverware black, but never believe a GT release date until after you've created your savegame file. ;) I think 2,3,and 4 were all several months late.


RE: no way
By MaulBall789 on 2/5/2008 12:10:12 PM , Rating: 2
As I recall, GT4 was nearly 2 years late (slated for mid 2003, released early 2005). And not really that much better than GT3 A-spec IMHO. Still played the heck out of it though.


RE: no way
By glitchc on 2/5/2008 1:04:06 AM , Rating: 2
You forgot...

God of War: Chains of Olympus

and (personally anticipated) Tekken 6.


RE: no way
By jconan on 2/5/2008 2:45:52 AM , Rating: 2
Add DMC4 to the list. Should be out next week or so.


RE: no way
By DingieM on 2/5/2008 3:46:55 AM , Rating: 3
DMC4 is multi-platform, I could already download the Xbox360 demo.
Personally, that game genre sucks


RE: no way
By daftrok on 2/5/2008 7:12:48 PM , Rating: 2
Play God of War and God of War 2.


RE: no way
By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:17:05 PM , Rating: 2
Its out on 360 too..


RE: no way
By DingieM on 2/5/08, Rating: 0
RE: no way
By mars777 on 2/5/2008 7:36:01 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Personally I don't like the repetitive Japanese style RPG's.


I personally do, because they are the best in my opinion (no MMO has the same quality).

quote:
And I find it strange that GT5 creates so much hype. I don't get it, its just a bit of racing nothing else.


Probably a lot of people like racing. I personally don't but i know a bunch of them.

The difference between X360 and PS3 is that the PS3 has a cult audience, that buys cult games. So many iterations of a game doesn't mean a bad thing, contrary. That is what the X360 lacks...


RE: no way
By StevoLincolnite on 2/5/2008 8:15:24 AM , Rating: 2
The reason I would buy the PS3 is: Final Fantasy!
The Reason I would buy the Xbox 360: Fable 2
The Reason I would but the Wii: Zelda!

Those games I have always followed like a typical Zealot - I just wish they were all available on the one platform...


RE: no way
By michal1980 on 2/5/08, Rating: -1
RE: no way
By darkblade33 on 2/5/2008 5:49:59 PM , Rating: 2
Reality check here folks:

Even if Sony outsells MS by INSANE 2 MILLION consoles EACH YEAR THE NEXT 3 SOLID L-O-N-G YEARS - it would be the middle of 2010 before Sony BREAKS EVEN in consoles sold.

What does this mean? Sony which before could milk profits.. is up against a stronger Nintendo and MS who will very likely both release next gen consoles around 2010 to compete more against an outdated PS3 forcing Sony out of their past 10 year console theory.


RE: no way
By retrospooty on 2/4/2008 11:04:04 PM , Rating: 2
I say to EA...

FIRST, get all your games out with a decent UI that work properly and respond as they should.
THEN you can work on all the predictions you like.


PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By IntelGirl on 2/4/08, Rating: -1
RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By masher2 (blog) on 2/4/2008 9:05:42 PM , Rating: 3
I've seen those figures before and, even ignoring the large number of highly questionable assumptions that went into deriving them, there's no disputing that the XBox 360 sold much better its first year than the PS3 did in its debut year, and still today has nearly twice the installed base.

Now, will the PS3 turn things around in 2008? If its holiday sales are any indication, it will. But there's no denying its still definitely the underdog at this point in time.

Disclaimer: I own both consoles and play neither. I couldn't care less which one "wins".


By cplusplus on 2/4/2008 9:44:48 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
there's no disputing that the XBox 360 sold much better its first year than the PS3 did in its debut year, and still today has nearly twice the installed base.


Actually, from most of the things I've seen, they sold about the same in their first calendar year. The 360 has been out almost exactly a year longer and has about 7-8 million more sales worldwide. Which, as has been said more than once here, is about what it sells in a year. The question to be asked is whether the PS3 will sell well enough outside of the US to make up for the sales of the 360 in the US. Because worldwide, the 360 is, right now, the worst selling console (but not by that much).


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By powerincarnate on 2/4/2008 10:12:08 PM , Rating: 2
Recently Daily tech members have proven themselves to either be extremely stupid, or extremely one sided towards issues. Previously was during the whole Blu-Ray HD-DVD news that was flooding the world at the beginning of January. One member was trying to downplay the news, and almost as if he wanted no one to win and for it to drag on longer like that was best for customers.

Anyways, Obviously the sales numbers are for Worldwide numbers and not US numbers. Because we all know the 360 won this year in the US. After all, NPD numbers week in and week out show it. But what you guys fail to realize is that the 360 is Hardly the successful machine in Europe or Australia and They are essentially Not competing in Japan. When you factor all markets, The 360 is NOT beating the PS3. Even in the US, if you factor in Year one of each consoles, it isn't a 360 advantage.

What people fail to just accept was that 1 year was a big advantage. We kept comparing games that came out for the 360 for its second or 3rd affair, and was just showing up on the PS3 for the first or second time. Plus people failed to realize that the hardware is completely different. It is hard to port Multiplatform games, so companies that had been use to using the 360 for the year past, continue to build the game from the 360's perspective and tried to port it to the PS3 and were met with challenged. Either Release it later, or release it with various short comings on time. 2007 was a big year for 360 with respect to games, just like , you guessed it, 2008 will be a big year for the PS3 with respect to games. Everything just seems to make sense, when you break it down correctly instead of simply saying one is better than the others.

Years 3, 4 and 5 will be important because no longer will the advantages and disadvantages in the past matter. It will now come down to the games. Any intelligent person would have realized that the 360 would end up 3rd this generation because they aren't competing in Japan. In the US though, we'll just have to see. 360 still and probably will always have the internet/Xboxlive advantage. PS3 has the advantage of its optical system becoming the new standard in the world. Graphically, I don't think there will ever be a major major difference between the two once both mature.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By masher2 (blog) on 2/4/2008 10:36:55 PM , Rating: 3
> "the sales numbers are for Worldwide numbers and not US numbers...When you factor all markets, The 360 is NOT beating the PS3"

It's a bit difficult to factor in "more markets" than the entire world. Worldwide, the 360 has some 17.7M units sold, the PS3 10.4M.

Based on Q4 07 sales, the PS3 is selling faster than the 360. However, extrapolating that trend forward is problematic. The PS3 more than tripled its sales from Q3 to Q4, due primarily to a price cut. If MS follows with a similar cut, it will likely see a similar gain.

You correctly point out that, over time, the 360's advantage in game selection and ease of development will minimize. Which means total sales are going to be driven primarily by price and marketing.

And THAT means predicting which one will outsell the other in 2008 is essentially impossible. Not unless you can read the minds of both Steve Ballmer and Howard Stringer.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By powerincarnate on 2/4/2008 11:01:22 PM , Rating: 1
You can make a good extrapolation. That's how companies extrapolate things all the time. That's how companies, especially public ones, are able to guage where they are and where they will be by the end of the quater, or year. It's actually quite easily done. For example,

1. Blu-Ray is in 2008 is poised to be the Defacto standard for High definition disc. The Playstation 3 is the only future proof blu-ray player out there. It is THE best blu-ray player currently. As we say in the PS2 days, for the second straight generation, a game console will have a major impact in the consumer electronic/movie player business.

2. Microsoft ensured that the 360 will have a great 2007. All of it's major major titles already came out. Titles like THE 360 game, Halo already came out. Gears of WArs already came out. Blu-Dragon, it's japanese style RPG savior that turned into a disappointment already came out. Mass Effect, already came out. Plus, the advantages of that one year with better multiplayer titles will decrease more and more. We've already started seeing this with Burnout, CO4, and Now Devil May Cry 4. This is in contrast to the PS3, which still has 2 major Final Fantasies, one possibly coming out this year, MGS4, little big planet, killzone 2, GT5, and whatever other japanese RPGs that may finally show up this year.

3. With the Playstation 3 being trimmed in one way or another to decrease the cost, and with the blu lasers now becoming cheaper and cheaper to produce, this will allow the PS3 to have another price cut sometimes this year. There is no question in my mind that Sony will try another price cut close to the holidays, to have another surge. And while 360 could do the same, the 360 was already in the range of the Wii with the core, while the PS3 isn't, so the bigger advantage to a price cut will be the PS3 in my opinion. If they can get to 299 for example, that would be bigger, than if the 360 get to 249. I doubt they will get to $299 though, but $349 is a great possibility.

4. And one of the key factors, is that the numbers AREN'T US numbers. Sony is doing will in all 3 markets, and price cuts and better game will improve that. 360 on the other hand, could cut it's prices until it's blu (obvious pun) it still won't compete in Japan. Europe, Australia and other PAL countries has no nation ties to any of the systems and seems to be more evened out. This Leaves only the US does Microsoft has an advantage. And as we seen for year one for each consoles it isn't even an advantage. Again, Key thing is Worldwide numbers, cheaper PS3s will mean a much larger surge in the PAL and japanese countries. Tie that in with a price cut, and Final Fantasy, and I think PS3 will win the world wide numbers as well.

I still don't understand they way 360 fans acted like they won something. I don't think Microsoft has EVER won a single year in sales. 2006 was PS2 for consoles, 2007 was Wii, and prior to 2006 it was domination by the PS2. 360 never won a single year, and they never won even against Generation 7 consoles in which that console had a year to compete. ie.. 2007, it was the Wii that won. Remember, It wasn't cool that Xbox fans were dissing Gamecube fans for a few extra million. There is nothing to be proud of if you are number 2, especially when at number 2 you've never or maybe with the exception of 1 or 2 quaters this year, ever posted a profit in your games division. The ruler of this years generation is still the Wii, and the goal will always be to beat them.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By masher2 (blog) on 2/4/2008 11:33:52 PM , Rating: 3
Extrapolation is a little more difficult than that...accurate extrapolation, at least. For instance, let's look at your points above.

1. Correct, but most non-gamers will not buy a game console strictly to play movies. The embedded BD means that, for gamers, a PS3 priced the same or somewhat higher will outsell a 360. As 2007 clearly demonstrated, though, if that difference is overly large, the extra appeal vanishes. In the final analysis, it comes down to how much appeal BD adds, versus how difficult it makes for Sony to drop pricing.

2. Valid for 2008 but, as you point out, the real race is long term. Which company will have the better titles in 2009-2010? Impossible to say at this point. And, of course, we don't know how many of those quoted titles are going to be delayed, possibly long past their due dates.

Oh, and as for calling Blue Dragon a 'disappointment', it broke all sales records in Japan for a 360 game, and even managed to propel the 360 to a brief one-week victory over the PS3 in Japan.

3. The 360 is cheaper to produce, period. Assuming both MS and Sony are willing to play equivalent hardball, the 360 will always be cheaper. Furthermore, the PS3 just had its price cut. The 360's reduction will therefore (likely) occur 6-9 before the PS3 drops again.

In the end, it all comes down to price and marketing. A huge price cut by MS and a major ad blitz, and the 360 will outsell the PS3. No price cut, or simply a minor one, and the PS3 will outsell the 360.

There are times when extrapolation is both easy and fairly accurate. And there are times like this, when calling a sales winner is not much more accurate than flipping a coin.

Most pundits drastically overpredicted early sales for the PS3...then followed with drastic underpredictions of the massive sales boom following the first price cut. Now -- in typical fortuneteller fashion -- they want you to forget their past mistakes, and focus on their latest guesses.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By powerincarnate on 2/5/2008 12:25:28 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
OMG! That quote and response has got to be the best of the year so far on DT!


It's nice that you thought it was funny. Though at first, I wasn't sure if the joke was DT knowing that he's talking about the world and therefore making a joke that it is difficult to exrapolate more than the world, or if DT was just a dope. I know my response though wasn't necessarily directed at the DT poster but more towards people in general who looked at the fact that Microsoft won all 52 weeks in the US and felt like the global numbers must be off because that isn't what they were seeing. I was pointing that they shouldn't look at just the US but the whole world. PS3 can compete in all 3 markets and the 360 can't. This is the big difference.

1. With regards what your saying, the goal and premis of this discussion is just pure sales. Not which one is the better gaming console. There is no question that Blu-Ray, especially in light of what's going on recently with Warner, will have a BIG impact. Whether it will be as a pure game console, pure movie player, or hybrid is irrelavant.

2. Again we are talking about Globally. The 360 now and will always lack great Japanese style rpgs. That will always be it's crutch. Because, PS3 can compete in the FPS category, but 360 can't compete with the japanese RPG category. So things like Disgaea 3 and other tactics style japanese rpg will be sony exclusives. Final Fantasy style Japanese RPGs will also mostly be sony Exclusive. Microsoft knows this, and why they courted Sackaguchi so thoroughly. Plus, Japan is one of those nationalistic type of countries, XBOX will simply NOT sell well other there. Only reason why Blue Dragon helped with that one week sale was because Sony's System at the time was still VERY new, we are talking about December 7 2006 release date. This was less than a month after PS3 came out. Therefore this was against the heavily expensive, no price reduced, Game library anemic PS3. All that for 1 week of a jump, in a country that probably was dying for a next gen japanese style rpg.

3. Listen, any price cut in the middle of the year will only get a momentary bump, like the PS3's price cut in July. Price cuts will have a major impact at the end of the year near holidays, Unless it was reduce just prior to 1,and most likely 2 major blockbuster titles. And as I was saying before, when your priced high, you can have major price cuts of like $100, as you get lower and lower in price, the difference in cuts become less and less, chances are, the $449 360 will be 399, the $349 will be 299 and the $279 will be 249. PS3 still can have a larger cut if needed. Yess it will still be more expensive, but again, in light of blu-ray, the better deal is by far the PS3. I'm not a large fan of Price is the such a massive reason a console sells well, except for when the price is so far out there. Example, 600 bucks is so far out there, that they simply couldn't stay there and sell the console. But, Nintendo gamecube was always the cheapest, but that didn't mean they sold well. XBOX quickly became the same price as the PS2 but that didn't mean it sold well.

Listen, the XBOX360 is a wonderful game machine. It's proven to be a wonderful media machine as a whole. It has the most robust internet system of all the consoles. It did a lot of things well. Only Sony idiots will deny these thigns. Quite frankly, if you care just about games IN THE US, then 360 was the better choice. I rather a smooth 60 frames madden with better online than a 30 frames madden with poorer online. I rather a games graphically superior, come out on time, and with better online. Problem is, graphically superior is starting to be a thing of the past, most multiplatform games now come out at the same time, Home will improve the internet aspect of Sony. XBOX can't compete in Japan, while technology and first adopters will chose the PS3 for blu-ray. Since Microsofts only soft advantage is the US, it better sell That much more in the US to compensate for the rest of the world.

Personally, I just don't believe that it will be able to do that. Not with Blu-Ray, not with the price of the PS3 coming down. In the end, I firmly believe they both will lose to the Wii, and Sony will be second, and 360 will be 3rd. The difference being no one will dominate like PS2 and PS1 did, but Wii will still have a healthy lead.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By sweetsauce on 2/5/2008 1:43:26 AM , Rating: 2
Price cut + 150million in advertising = sony sold a ton of consoles in a small period. Microsoft cut their advertising to offset the cost of RROD. Will this continue? Im not sure any company can afford to spend 150 milion in advertising in one period, unless they are really desperate to win market share.

Mass effect sold over 1 million copies in less than 2 months on mostly word of mouth and reviews from gaming sites and magazines. There was hardly any advertising for the game, and when i did see any it was a 15 sec spot. Be ready to see some serious advertising for games like Too Human and Fable2.

Microsoft's goal was to compete with the monster that is the playstation brand, and it succeeded with flying colors. On the "world market" comment, the xbox is made for the american market. Microsoft knew they would never compete with sony in japan, and worldwide the playstation brand is incredibly strong. All they can hope to do is compete in those markets and reach as many customers as possible. Here in the US the 360 is dominating. Console sales might be close, but software sales is a landslide victory for the 360. Theres no comparison.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By powerincarnate on 2/5/2008 8:24:15 AM , Rating: 1
Here in the US, the 360 is NOT dominating. the Wii is dominating. and Microsoft Hopes to compete against not just the PS brand, but the Nintendo Brand as well. Often times, people only see Half of the situation. It's not just Xbox vs. PS. If so, then the 19 billion dollar gaming industry would be much less. So if the XBox was meant for the American Market, then even in that market it isn't winning. again, year one to year 1 sales, it isn't winning. The XBOX brand hasn't won a Single year in sales. NOT A SINGLE. But yet I hear words of Domination coming from people's mouth. And please don't tell me that the XBOX brand has to compete against the big and Bad Playstation brand. This is what Sony Did against Nintendo after 2 generation leads, including owning 90% market share in the 8 bit NES days. Sony did that in it's first year in existance. Microsoft it's first year laid an Egg, Its best chance is when Sony made a collosal mistake like Nintendo did with N64 but it doesn't seem like it can keep its lead. Despite that Sony Mistake, And a 1 year head start, Microsoft let NINTENDO be the one to profit and take the lead. The way people are talking, it's like saying the Sega Saturn is Dominating and profitting from Nintendo's mistake, when all data shows that the Playstation brand as the one dominating and not Sega.

P.S. Microsoft's strategy is be Second in its own market and be 3rd in the other two major markets, then I think we can all agree than the XBOX360 will end up in last place at the end of the generation, and I can easily see that EA's prediction is true and more PS3s will sell over 360s in 2008 World market.


By masher2 (blog) on 2/5/2008 9:28:29 AM , Rating: 2
> "Here in the US, the 360 is NOT dominating. the Wii is dominating. and Microsoft Hopes to compete against not just the PS brand, but the Nintendo Brand as well"

In these discussions, people sometimes forget what the company goal really is-- to make a profit. Some people seem to think Microsoft would be happier selling only 5 million 360s, as long as Sony and Nintendo did worse. That isn't the case. Market share is an important factor, but in the end it's total widgets that counts.

Selling 17 million of anything is a great success. The 360 will certainly top the original Xbox sales of 24M, and will, barring RROD surcharges, generate a hefty profit. More importantly, XNA keeps Microsoft's foot in the door for .NET, generating important synergies for its Windows OS.

BTW, The "DT" by my name doesn't make me an employee of DT. I'm simply a contributor and, of all the DT bloggers, the one who is probably the least knowledgeable on the topic of consoles.


By sweetsauce on 2/5/2008 10:30:21 AM , Rating: 2
Did you even read what i wrote? They are dominating whether you like it or not in SOFTWARE SALES. Guess what, thats a MAJOR source of income for all 3 consoles. Until they get a return on R&D and subsidized console sales, thats their only source of income. Sony doesn't even come close to the 360 in SOFTWARE SALES. The wii is also behind in sales. So yes, once again, the 360 dominated the US market.


By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:14:25 PM , Rating: 2
You're not sure any company can afford it ?
Look up the net worth of all 3 companies ( nintendo, sony, ms ) .. Nintendo surpassed Sony in company value about 6-7 months ago.. neither is near MS.

360 is making plenty off games which helps the losses, but even with losses the company is putting way more CASH into banks then either of its competitors..


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By robinthakur on 2/5/2008 6:38:02 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Oh, and as for calling Blue Dragon a 'disappointment', it broke all sales records in Japan for a 360 game, and even managed to propel the 360 to a brief one-week victory over the PS3 in Japan.


Oh come on, you're kidding yourself! Blue Dragon was one of the most disappointing releases I've ever played. Utterly mediocre and underwhelming in every way. The Japanese went a little crazy over it, but nothing like the bedlam which greets a new SquareEnix release. They only bought it because it was hyped and because it had some usually dependable people working on it. As for
quote:
broke all sales records in Japan for a 360 game
that's not exactly hard. It merely reflects Microsoft's mistaken thinking that the Japanese will go nuts for an American console with cynically targeted RPG content. Considering the costs of distribution, the volume of sales and the fact that virtually nobody in Japan sells/buys/knows what it is, and its unappealing software lineup its only Microsoft's pride that keeps the 360 on sale there.

I think Sony has recently regained some of their former confidence with the price cut and Blu Ray's victory, and expect that the PS3 will dominate for 2008 against the 360 which has not really got many decent games left to release. Its almost like nobody in MS planned for 2008. Maybe their next console is out soon...


By BansheeX on 2/5/2008 9:42:49 AM , Rating: 2
Although I agree with you that the PS3 will ultimately outsell the 360, it's worth pointing out that Sony continues to make two consoles and the PS2 is being re-positioned to eat into the Wii's sales at $100 and is still doing quite well with a low price, massive library, and easy availability. It's hard to include the Wii in any kind of comparison because even though it's a console, it's simply not going after the same demographic as the PS3 or 360. Nintendo tried the general base with the N64 and Gamecube, and failed utterly in sales. It's all about the non-gamers and young gamers for them now. My mom understands and enjoys Wii tennis, but give her a controller or tell her to play an RPG and she'll act like it's a nuclear switchboard.


By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:09:34 PM , Rating: 2
First let me say, compared to Nintendo and Microsoft Sony's company value is in 3rd place.

Nintendo's net worth surpassed Sony's about 6 months ago and neither value is close to Microsoft.

My cousin and I predicted the PS3 woud probably outsell the 360 ( in worldwide sales ) by a 'bit' ..

A bit ? Well if EA even close and PS3 does outsell 360 by 360,000 units ( Say 7,000,000 360's AGAINST 7,360,000 PS3's FOR THE YEAR ) .. That being said.. 360 is ahead of PS3 by around 7 million units so far .. it would still be years before PS3's INSTALL BASE is EQUAL or GREATER then 360's ..

At a rate of 300K units this year, 500K the next , etc.. It would take many years for the PS3 to catch the 360.

I think within 3yrs though the next MS console will be out, which Sony would have to look outdated to. When PS2 was out they really didnt have much competition.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By EglsFly on 2/4/2008 11:33:25 PM , Rating: 4
quote:
powerincarnate > "the sales numbers are for Worldwide numbers and not US numbers...When you factor all markets, The 360 is NOT beating the PS3"
..
quote:
masher2 > "It's a bit difficult to factor in "more markets" than the entire world."


OMG! That quote and response has got to be the best of the year so far on DT!

<Can't Stop Laughing>


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By Ryl3x on 2/5/2008 2:22:47 AM , Rating: 2
lets be nice.....PS3 shouldve owned the market on release but was a failure. The 360 has dominated the high end market and now.....years later has the PS3 shown life only thanks to Blue Ray. Sad for Sony that it took beatings on its own format to even challenge the gaming market.

lol.....i was paid by sony to make this post.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By nerdye on 2/5/2008 2:50:27 AM , Rating: 1
This topic indeed has many variables that attribute to its complexity. Yes, the ps3 was plauged at first by carrying a very high initial price tag and having a very expensive blue drive incorporated before either blue ray or hd-dvd had a chance to take off. Ps3 was not helped by sub stellar launch titles other than resistance.

Xbox has captured America quite well, while japan still refuses to buy it, and Europe is favoring the Ps3.

My question to Europe is, when sony released the Ps3 and made it illegal for you guys to import their newest console, did that actually make you guys want to buy it once you were allowed to? Am I the only person that would be bitter after that? I don't kiss the hand that slaps me.


By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:24:19 PM , Rating: 2
MS has done well to outsell its former console with the 360.
That being said its task was a great one when trying to even break into the european market which was firecely loyal to the PS2 - and it has done pretty well in european markets with this in mind.

Theoretically, Even "IF" PS3 does outsell 360 by 300K units this year, 500K the next, 1,000,000 the next ( Im really giving Sony a positive outlook ) that means in 3 years they would still be behind MS in actual consoles sold - AKA, Installed base - by about 5 million consoles ! As of now they are up 7 million units wordwide- so subtract the number of consoles Sony 'outsells' MS by each year from 7 million - thats a long road folks !

The problem is Sony doesnt have 5 yrs.. I doubt they even have 4 yrs - Before the next MS console comes out to make PS3 look outdated.


By powerincarnate on 2/5/2008 8:41:50 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
lets be nice.....PS3 shouldve owned the market on release but was a failure. The 360 has dominated the high end market and now.....years later has the PS3 shown life only thanks to Blue Ray. Sad for Sony that it took beatings on its own format to even challenge the gaming market.


Well, Sony risked their usually profitable gaming division to get the next standard out. considering that this may be the last standard in a while (I don't see TVs going past 1080P for the simple fact that TV signals may never be 1080P for bandwidth reasons) I think Sony made the right decision. They will own the next gen optical format for some 15 years. I still think most people, most general people would rather physically own their product than a download, and with the size of HD media that would need to be downloaded, I can't see it overtaking optical media disk anytime soon personally.

So yes, Sony Struggled. That's fact, The system was just too expensive. The architecture was just too new and different. this made programing for it a hassle. Not just the architecture is different but the difference between the two graphically next gen architecture made it so that they couldn't be easily ported from one to another like it was from the PS to Saturn days, from the Deamcast to PS2 days or from the PS2 to the gamecube and XBOX days. This will make it so that you have to have separate teams, more time, or highly skilled programmers to get it done right. Now that the PS3 is a year old, the hassles of programming is starting to become less and less, the Price is starting to decrease, the game library is starting to increase, Home should be coming out soon, and Blu-Ray won, the Playstation brand does seem to have the advantage worldwide over the 360 brand.

Quite Frankly, I just don't think Microsoft has the right strategy for worldwide success. WAY too much emphasis on steroid looking FPS games, and way less emphasis on casual games, artistically beautiful fun games, and way to little Non Western RPGS. Sneaking in one or two JRPGS wasn't going to shed the feeling that it is a American Console, vs. a Worldwide console.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By jconan on 2/5/08, Rating: 0
RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By mmntech on 2/5/2008 10:09:35 AM , Rating: 2
That would likely be almost insignificant since MS replaces most of them at no cost. It may have been more important in the past but not now due to the three year warranty.

Of course the PS3 would eventually surpass the 360 in sales since the market is getting saturated and people are going to begin looking for something different.


RE: PS3 already outsold Xbox360 in 2007
By powerincarnate on 2/5/2008 11:48:07 AM , Rating: 2
I don't like the notion that the market is saturated and thus PS3 will win. That would be akin to saying, in 2002 that the market is saturated with PS2s therefore The Xbox will win. Fact of the matter is, the market is no where near saturated. Most previous console generation owners haven't switched yet, They are going to be buyin tons on this new generation consoles in the next 3-4 years. Tons of people have the Wii, and they might want a second system. Tons of people are young and haven't had any consoles yet, and they are going to want to buy their first one.

Market saturation has nothing to do with why the PS3 or any group wins, it might cause a slow down to the leader, but it should never result in the leader LOSING because of saturation because by definition, when the loser begins to catch up, it too will become saturated and slow down.

And speaking of Saturation, I thought by now the PS2 would be Saturated, Damn, by the sales of 2006 and 2007, it seems, that it wasn't saturated enough. Get the point. PS3 will pass the 360 because it is the overall best media system, in light of blu-ray, and it will pass the 360 because it has a much broader appeal to demographics of all 3 markets. Something the 360 still struggles to have.


By ViperROhb34 on 2/5/2008 5:31:56 PM , Rating: 2
Theoretically, Even "IF" PS3 does outsell 360 by 300K units this year, 500K the next, 1,000,000 the next ( Im really giving Sony a positive outlook ).. In the next 3 yrs using the above rosey numbers .. Sony would've outsold MS by 1,8 million consoles... that means in 3 years Sony would still be behind MS in actual consoles sold by about 5 million consoles !!

The problem is Sony doesnt have 5 yrs.. I doubt they even have 4 yrs - Before the next MS console comes out to make PS3 look outdated. The next generation Nintendo and MS console could very well include Bluray players ( if that format does indeed make it ) ..

Fact is Bluray is selling better then HD-DVD, but neither format is doing well. The movie 300 which holds the record for high def sales sold about 400K units ( when you combine sales from HD-DVD AND BLURAY ) - thats not real good when thats your best seller and the same movie on DVD sold 18 million..


By darkblade33 on 2/5/2008 5:59:42 PM , Rating: 1
yes talk about numbers ..

Sony outsells MS by 1 million consoles every year beginning this year for the next 4 yrs - thats 4 million consoles - which MS is already ahead 7 million.

Sony will still be behind MS in total consoles sold by 3 million units in 2011 - but by then MS wil have a newer console that makes PS3 look uber weak.


Hmm
By IceTron on 2/5/08, Rating: -1
RE: Hmm
By TerranMagistrate on 2/5/2008 2:46:47 PM , Rating: 1
Because you don't agree with it right? Of course.


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