A recent study looking at
atmospheric carbon when combined with a recent summary of global
atmospheric temperatures over the past 30 years sharply illustrates
Looking first at the temperature map,
which was compiled by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville using satellite data of atmospheric
temperatures over the last three decades, several interesting things
pop out. First, one quickly notices the relative highs that
were reached between 2002 and 2007, which believers in the theory of
anthropogenic (manmade) global warming (AGW) tend to fixate on.
And likewise it's equally easy to notice the sharp drop and relative
in 2008, something that AGW disbelievers elect to focus on.
the new year, the temperature is on the rise again, but as can be
seen in the graph it's unclear whether this increase will truly mark
a warming rise, or simply another cyclic variation. There have
been approximately 7 cyclic variations over the past three decades,
highlighted by the peaks.
Meanwhile, turning to a new
study in Nature Geoscience, in 2008 global carbon levels
soared 2 percent to record highs of 1.3 tons of carbon per capita per
year. The paper cites increased use of coal in developing
nations as the biggest factor, with emissions from oil and
deforestation as minor factors.
One of the paper’s lead
authors, CSIRO’s Dr Mike Raupach comments, "The current growth
in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is closely linked to
growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). CO2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion are estimated to have increased
41 per cent above 1990 levels with emissions continuing to track
close to the worst-case scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). There will be a small downturn in
emissions because of the GFC, but anthropogenic emissions growth will
resume when the economy recovers unless the global effort to reduce
emissions from human activity is accelerated."
accelerated rate of carbon emissions raised atmospheric levels to 385
parts per million, 38 percent above pre-industrial levels. Four
billion metric tons of carbon were emitted in 2008.
combination of soaring emissions and the lack of soaring temperatures
paints an intriguing puzzle for those in the climatology research
community with open minds. On the one hand, warming may be
occurring, albeit more subtly than many AGW advocates claim.
Under this scenario, a gradual upwards climb over many cycles may be
noticed, as global carbon increases. On the other hand, another
possibility is that almost no net warming will occur as carbon may
need to reach much higher levels before its effects truly kick in.
And a final possibility is that dramatic warming may indeed kick in
at sometime in the near future -- despite the fact that it hasn't
Either way, the overall picture leads suggests, for the
time being, that scientists question the IPCC's alarming estimates of
global temperature increases. While such increases can not be
ruled out, they do not seem to fit the current data, at least from a
macro (global) perspective.
With the international community
puzzling over expensive
climate change legislation, it is important to consider carefully
what landmarks by which to gauge "success" amid the
uncertainty of cyclic variation. Furthermore, critics and
proponents aside, the wisest approach seems to be to avoid schemes
that throw money into the wind, such as carbon
trading or carbon sequestration. Instead, if money from
global taxpayers must be spent, it seems much wiser to put it towards
projects that could eventually show financial returns and cut
emissions, such as fuel efficient cars, clean fission power, improved
solar cells, and viable fusion power.
quote: After all what place does logic have in a religion?
quote: combined with a recent summary of global atmospheric temperatures over the past 30 years
quote: we are sweltering through summer-like 30C+ (85F+) temps for days on end, before the official start of our summer season in December
quote: This goes to show those who are demanding draconian measures are placing way too much emphasis co2 as the sole culprit.
quote: Those conversations led Gore to politically inconvenient conclusions in this new book. In his conversations with Schmidt and other colleagues at the beginning of the year, Gore explored new studies – published only last week – that show methane and black carbon or soot had a far greater impact on global warming than previously thought. Carbon dioxide – while the focus of the politics of climate change – produces around 40% of the actual warming. Gore acknowledged to Newsweek that the findings could complicate efforts to build a political consensus around the need to limit carbon emissions. “Over the years I have been among those who focused most of all on CO2, and I think that’s still justified,” he told the magazine. “But a comprehensive plan to solve the climate crisis has to widen the focus to encompass strategies for all” of the greenhouse culprits identified in the Nasa study.
quote: The kings of climate hysteria
quote: The world produces 30 billion tons of CO2 per year currently (IPCC's numbers). To affect a 1 degree change in surface temperature we must STOP ALL CO2 production for the next 33 years.
quote: Why is this not a 6?
quote: Wow...I almost agree with Jason. Congrats Jason this is one of the least politically skewed posts yet!
quote: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are estimated to have increased 41 per cent above 1990 levels
quote: how nice it must be to load the earth full of carbon and plastic
quote: Anyone catch the news that California is now ramrodding limits on big screen TV emissions now?
quote: What's wrong with that? If people are too stupid to spend an extra $10 on a TV that saves them $20 per year in electricity then we should try to do something about it.
quote: What's your proposal?
quote: Two countries who don't give a crap about their impact, only about what will help their economies grow.
quote: Carbon Level are Soaring,...