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HD DVD winning standalones, but Blu-ray winning with the help of PS3

Last week, the European HD DVD Promotional Group proudly stated that it had a 74 percent market share in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. The figure was regarding the split of dedicated players, which did not include the PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive.

Following the HD DVD camp’s announcement, the Blu-ray team fired back with its own hefty set of figures. Taking into account PlayStation 3 and PC drive sales, Blu-ray Disc Association European Promotions Committee says that Blu-ray Disc makes up for almost 95% of all next generation hardware sales in Europe this year, reports Pocket-lint.

Of course, none of the numbers thrown around by either side of the format battle are perfect. For one, not all of those who purchase a PlayStation 3 will necessarily be buyers of Blu-ray movies, while all who purchase a standalone HD DVD player did so for the sole purpose of playing movies.

"This is simply because those who buy a standalone player are interested solely in buying and watching movies and other video content, whereas those with HD drives built into games consoles are primarily interested in games," said Steve Nickerson, senior vice president at Warner Bros high definition media. Warner currently supports both high-def formats.

"These figures are especially important because the standalone player market is by far the biggest driver of movie sales in the long-term," Nickerson adds.

On the North American front, HD DVD Promotional Group took the opportunity at the Entertainment Merchants Association (EMA) Home Media Expo 2007 to pound its chest by announcing its hardware sales were up 37 percent from Q1 to Q2 2007, while software sales experienced a 20 percent increase in growth.



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PS3s do matter
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 11:09:13 AM , Rating: 3
Which camp is using the most fuzzy math? The drowning HD-DVD world. To say its unfair to not count PS3s whatsoever is pretty wishful but not very realistic. But to be fair it's also wrong to count them all too. If someone has a PS3 with an HDTV I think he/she might choose to rent a BR movie sometime. And while they are visiting Blockbuster they might pick up a PS3 game to rent also since both will conveniently work on one device.

I think some of you have the logic backwards. Sure many consumers may not be inclined to buy a PS3 strictly for movie viewing (although thats quite a bargain) people would be inclined to take advantage of the second greatest feature of the PS3: Watching a BR movie! I certainly have. What a deal that is :)

I also believe it's pretty safe to say the computer camp will prefer the disk format with the highest capacity? Size matters there one would think. And I really don't care about the triple sided ultra layered future announcements from HD DVD.

Lastly, all the nay-sayers that were demanding a PS3 price cut: The same sources that projected the 60GB price cut are now are projecting a price cut for the 80GB PS3 as well. http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=...

As far as this wonderful new $299.00 HD DVD player thats giving HD-DVD another breath of air: how long do you think it will be before a standalone BR player's price won't be cut as well? Blue laser diodes and other BR player production costs are coming down.




RE: PS3s do matter
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 11:13:06 AM , Rating: 2
Fair...not unfair. Sorry.


RE: PS3s do matter
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 11:15:15 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
As far as this wonderful new $299.00 HD DVD player thats giving HD-DVD another breath of air: how long do you think it will be before a standalone BR player's price won't be cut as well? Blue laser diodes and other BR player production costs are coming down.


You tell me. Even if BD drops its player down to $399 from $499, the fact is that HD is still $100 cheaper.


RE: PS3s do matter
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 11:45:40 AM , Rating: 1
Whoopty do.


RE: PS3s do matter
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 12:27:21 PM , Rating: 2
Exactly. So with BD costing at least 100 more, what is there to sway consumers to buy it? Seeing as how there is no difference in the quality, there is no reason..


RE: PS3s do matter
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 1:38:35 PM , Rating: 1
True. They are insignificantly vastly similar in specs. Other than their names.

Oh wait one has lower capacity. Certainly a minuscule feature today. I think there are more too. Naw.


RE: PS3s do matter
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 2:47:52 PM , Rating: 2
The capacity makes no difference on the movie, and the average consumer doesnt even know how much fits on a standard DVD much less an HD/BD DVD.


RE: PS3s do matter
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 3:34:58 PM , Rating: 3
If you are going to react to my thread please read all the posts before you chime in.

As I said before for the next PC disk storage medium capacity undeniably does matter a good deal.

And for the movie viewer/renter/buyer more capacity COULD mean things like more content, features, quality, languages, camera angles, director cuts, alternate endings, whatever. In other words even for those dumb movie viewers bigger obviously can be better.

But the whole idea is to upgrade from DVD right? But you'd prefer the format with 20GBs less capacity. Enjoy.


RE: PS3s do matter
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 4:19:12 PM , Rating: 2
For watching movies, i could careless if it came on a 12gb disc. as long as its HD quality.

I personally do use blank CD's & DVD's to store data. I make music cd's and movies, but thats about it. I have several external 500gb HD's that ill use for data storage. I guess right now, i just dont see the absolute need for a 30gb storage disc or a 50gb storage disc. Either is fine as longa s it serves the purpose.


RE: PS3s do matter
By Timeless on 7/19/2007 2:52:14 PM , Rating: 2
When two players are around the same price range or $100 apart from one another, I would think the consumers would start looking at the movies. The one with the better movies will win out the crowd. No one will buy a player that doesn't have a lot of titles that they want. It's all up to preference after that. Just my thoughts.


DVD
By Shoal07 on 7/19/2007 9:15:25 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
These figures are especially important because the standalone player market is by far the biggest driver of movie sales in the long-term


PS2 and the DVD format would disagree.




RE: DVD
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 9:22:47 AM , Rating: 1
I dont see what the PS2 has to do with the DVD format. The DVD format was already mainstream and popular prior to the PS2 and Xbox consoles coming on out DVD media. Also, Home standalone DVD players were already cheap and mainstream before DVD-R/RW Optical & Home Recorders became affordable and mainstream.

Movie buyers are not just gamers, in fact that would actually be a small percentage as a whole of movie buyers.


RE: DVD
By Exodus220 on 7/19/2007 9:54:37 AM , Rating: 2
I think he was trying to imply that the PS2 helped propel the DVD format forward. Fortunately for DVD there was not a competing format...unless you want to count VHS but it was easy to see who was going to win that imaginary fight. When the PS2 came out DVD players were still expensive compared to todays standards. I think they were still around $150+ for a player, but the huge popularity of the PS2 helped to expand the format and may have also aided in the lowering of prices. I loved my PS2 as a DVD player, but I must admit it was not the reason I bought one.


RE: DVD
By modestninja on 7/19/2007 11:14:32 AM , Rating: 3
The PS2 was a horrible DVD player. In a sense it did propel the format forward though... The people I knew that used theirs as a DVD player soon found out how poorly it did that job and bought a stand alone player.


RE: DVD
By killerroach on 7/19/2007 12:38:21 PM , Rating: 3
It may have been a horrible DVD player... but it was also a fact that it made for a very consumer-accessible way of viewing DVD movies, in particular in the Japanese market (you probably remember the stories about how, for a while, the best-selling "software" for the PS2 at launch was a DVD of "The Matrix").

Personally, the hardware sales mean absolutely nothing at this point, and the software sales, while meaning a bit more, still mean pretty much nothing. It's like two amoebas arguing over which is the biggest. Neither has enough momentum to really make the next leap forward and, unless some major studio switches camps, it's quite possible that both could end up as failed formats.


RE: DVD
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 1:13:07 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
It's like two amoebas arguing over which is the biggest.

I nominate that quote for a spot on the bottom of the DT pages!


RE: DVD
By gsellis on 7/19/2007 10:32:09 AM , Rating: 1
I have never used our PS2 player as a DVD player. Not when I get optical digital audio from my regular player.


RE: DVD
By DCstewieG on 7/19/2007 12:40:32 PM , Rating: 2
Uh, the PS2 had optical digital audio.


well...
By Gul Westfale on 7/19/2007 9:51:17 AM , Rating: 2
... as long as these two are still fighting over who is winning there ios no clear winner.

and as long as there is no clear winner i'm not going to invest in either format; unless someone really soon makes a PC blu-ray/HD DVD combo burner for a hundred bucks. but i'm not holding my breath.




RE: well...
By AlexWade on 7/19/2007 10:14:14 AM , Rating: 2
Rumor has it that Samsung's universal player is going to cost $550, less than a PS3 (once all the 60GB PS3 are sold out). If true, and that is still debatable, then HD DVD or Blu-Ray ain't going anywhere. The Samsung player will sell, then cheaper universals will come out because the Samsung player is popular, and then we will look back and wonder why the "fanbois" even bothered and we will laugh at them. They will both be around until the next stupid format war. TMany many people are waiting for a reasonably priced universal player. Once that happens, HD DVD and Blu-Ray will really take off.


RE: well...
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 10:29:28 AM , Rating: 2
This may happen.......down the road. But the day i spend $550 for a DVD player will never come.


RE: well...
By wallijonn on 7/19/2007 12:13:53 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Once that happens, HD DVD and Blu-Ray will really take off.


Maybe not. First everyone will first need to convert to HDTV. That's at least 5 years down the road. Even then, people may prefer to buy DVDs instead because they may cost half to a third what HD movies cost. At the present time HD movies cost roughly twice as much as regular movies. Are you going to rebuy every movie you won in HD? Unlikely.


RE: well...
By kelmon on 7/19/2007 11:48:21 AM , Rating: 2
Well said. I'm having nothing to do with either format until this is all sorted out and one has retired from the market. A universal player would help but until they are widespread then I don't see them as being a solution (for example, the player itself might be rubbish).

For the time being DVDs are fine image-wise and cost peanuts so both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD can take a hike.


C'mon...
By enlil242 on 7/19/2007 11:40:51 AM , Rating: 2
I really tire of this pissing contest... I could care how may PS3's or HD-DVD add-ons there are. I also tire that movie companies are supporting one or the other. I won't buy anything until their is just one, or a viable combo player. AND prices fall for both hardware and titles...

The one thing I like HD-DVD over Blu-ray is HD-DVD players can play regular DVDs. So, this means I only need one player, as I am NOT going to get rid of my 400+ DVDs, nor do I want to need two, or three players.

Sony really needs to get off this PS3 thing. It seems they really don't care so much about the Gaming part of their system as they do the damned BluRay player in it. Maybe if the PS3 put more effort in getting games out, and lowering the cost to, say $349, I'd buy one...




RE: C'mon...
By enlil242 on 7/19/2007 11:44:50 AM , Rating: 2
OK, forget about the part about Regular DVDs .. my brain farted and realized that both have the red alser built in... :-S


RE: C'mon...
By Chaser on 7/19/2007 11:46:53 AM , Rating: 2
Do I hear $100.00!


One Thing
By SavagePotato on 7/20/2007 9:04:17 PM , Rating: 2
One thing I don't see mentioned much is that the bottom of the barrel lowest end toshiba player doesn't even output 1080p, 1080i max. The "good" hd-dvd players are still just as and in some cases more expensive than BD players.

Personaly, I don't like compromising and buying the good enough solution. Thats why I just ordered a ps3, still one of if not the cheapest blu ray solutions. No matter what format wins, I don't feel like I will end up with a defunct player, even if blu ray does fail, well i'll just play the games.

I honestly don't understand the good enough crowd, the consuming masses that buy 720p off brand lcd's with a whacked out resolution to save a buck and want to slap the cheapest possible solution they can on it so they can say they have HD. Honestly why? What are you saving buying something that you are going to want to replace in three years?

Gonna have to quote the Offspring. I don't give a f#*@ if it's good enough for you.




Yeah, right
By gsellis on 7/19/07, Rating: -1
RE: Yeah, right
By zombiexl on 7/19/2007 8:54:58 AM , Rating: 2
I agree except I havent had a cig lighter in any of my last 4 or 5 cars. Its a 10-25$ option now and I don't smoke.


RE: Yeah, right
By ZoZo on 7/19/2007 8:59:44 AM , Rating: 2
But if 95% of the cars sold had cigarette lighters which only worked with Marlboro and at the same time buying a seperate lighter were expensive, then Marlboro would be in an advantageous position.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 9:04:20 AM , Rating: 1
Thats exactly correct. If you look deply at the figures - it would average out that of each of the PS3 owners, each owns less than 1 BD-DVD.

Thus proving that they are purchased with the intent of playing video games. We will soon have people comment here that say "well me and my friends bought ours to do both, and i have 55 BD DVD's." Well guess what my friend, that just means that there 55 other people out there who dont have any movies for it. So pick your poison.

Also, I dont quite agree with the optical PC drives being included either. No one in their right mind is going to buy that Optical PC BD-DVD drive just to watch movies, so lets get real. Those are sold to people and corporations who are using the 50GB discs for data, not for watching Talladega Nights.

Standalone players are what's important here. Standalone's target the entire society as a whole, not just a niche of gamers. I am also saying that the HD-DVD add on doesn't play any more of a role than PS3 does, because again, that is targeted at a niche of gamers. Granted, its much cheaper to buy the add-on and watch movies on the PC than it is a DB-DVD Optical PC drive, but not many people are concerned with that either.


RE: Yeah, right
By Dribble on 7/19/2007 9:29:50 AM , Rating: 2
While I mostly agree there are those who bought the PS3 as a stand alone player because it was cheaper then the actual stand alone players and had the added bonus of letting them play the occasional game.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 9:34:05 AM , Rating: 2
Yes, i am sure that may have been the case for some people when the PS3 first came out. However, i dont see that as the case anymore with standalone HD players being sold as low as $199 (after rebate). An extra $300 to play the occasional game for those select people doesn't seem much like a "value".


RE: Yeah, right
By therealnickdanger on 7/19/2007 10:14:23 AM , Rating: 2
Find me a Blu-Ray player selling for $199.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 10:27:36 AM , Rating: 1
There isn't one, thats the point.


RE: Yeah, right
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 10:29:02 AM , Rating: 1
Exactly! And that is the problem with BD right now - Sony seems to think they are going to "win" the format war just based on PS3 alone. The reality is that HD-DVD is going to drown them with low-cost stand-alone players. Stand-alone players are going to decide the fate of BD vs. HD-DVD, not game consoles.

Stand-alone players will have several times the market penetration of game consoles and much higher movie attach rates.

Sony needs to have stand-alone BD players in the $100-200 range by this holiday system, or else they can pack their bags and go home.


RE: Yeah, right
By omnicronx on 7/19/2007 1:01:55 PM , Rating: 2
What i funny is that this only proves Sony is Selling 0 standalone players in europe. If the numbers jump from a HD-DVD lead to 95% BD in europe when the ps3 and pc drives are counted, would that not indicate how bad they are selling.

As said before we all know maybe 1.5-10 people actually use their ps3 for high def movies so what does that say about sony's numbers, especially when the HD-DVD numbers also exclude xbox 360 addons


RE: Yeah, right
By deeznuts on 7/19/2007 1:47:28 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Exactly! And that is the problem with BD right now - Sony seems to think they are going to "win" the format war just based on PS3 alone.


They are winning it. And it's not just PS3 alone, it's studio support. All but one major studio supports Blu-Ray. There are 4 (or maybe 3) that DON't support HD DVD.

Also you guys keep arguing that Standalone players and cheap players are what's important. What's important to what? Media sales? Well if media sales are the ends and all of this is the means to get there, let's look at media sales, where BD has been trouncing HD DVD anywhere the PS3 has been released, Europe included.

Attach rates are important, when you combine them with players. An attach rate of a little less than 1 for 4 million players (PS3 will reach that shortly), is better than attach rate of 4 for 200,000 players, or whatever HD DVD has sold.


RE: Yeah, right
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 2:26:23 PM , Rating: 1
Studio support doesn't mean anybody is winning or losing. It's just a measure of the ability of both sides to gain influence within that part of the business at this point in time. Clearly any of the now-exclusive studios will flip-flop on their decision if the market makes it clear that they made the wrong decision.

Here's how to win the format war - it's a bootstrapping problem - get some content out there, then get some players out there. Then more content will come because of the players, and then more players will be sold because of the content. And so on. The one who does this better and faster than the other, wins. If both do it equally well, it will probably be a draw. It's really more of a "race" than a "war."

Cheap standalone players are important because their sales can easily outstrip and dwarf the sales of the game consoles. In the longer term, the percentage of people playing BD movies on their PS3 will be meaningless compared to the percentage playing them on standalone players (what percentage of people play their DVD movies on XBOX?). The only value to PS3 is that it gets a large quantity of players initially into the hands of consumers, and it also gives PS3 buyers a "free trial" of BD. That benefit is all short term (but important).

But the next wave will be the standalone players. That is where the volumes will come, both in terms of equipment and content. HD-DVD seems to have adopted the strategy of flooding the market with relatively low-cost players. That would be smart, IMO, and Sony and friends will need to do the same if they don't want BD to lose out to HD-DVD. My only concern there is that Sony doesn't have a track record of putting together low-cost hardware, so I don't expect them to lead that charge. It would be most effective if they could, but I suppose it will be left to other BD equipment OEMs. We'll see what happens.


RE: Yeah, right
By deeznuts on 7/19/2007 2:38:35 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Studio support doesn't mean anybody is winning or losing.
My apologies for not being clear (or misstating). I didn't mean that studio support was a measure of success in the format war. But that it was a tool that will help decide the war.

Blockbuster made the conscious decision to drop HD DVD in most of it's physical rental locations. We can only speculate, that this is due to several factors. One which they stated, renters were overwhelmingly choosing BD over HD DVD. This would lead to other considerations such as limited shelf space, and the decision that if they dropped HD DVD, they would only lose on studio regarding High Def formats. In reverse, they would have lost more exclusives. Again I'm speculating, but you know damn well these were in the discussions to drop HD DVD from rental locations.


RE: Yeah, right
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 4:54:45 PM , Rating: 1
The Blockbuster decision is interesting. If you look at the big picture, it is odd that they would make a decision like that so early on. I'll bet that HD rentals are just a tiny fraction of their overall current business, and clearly the future is unknown about final BD and HD-DVD market shares in the future mature market.

Because I cannot understand the logic in their decision (their explanation was PR BS), I would suspect that Sony and/or the other BD supporters promised Blockbuster something in return, e.g., cash payment, favorable terms, etc. I don't see why Blockbuster would otherwise join one side so early in the game. What's otherwise in it for them?


RE: Yeah, right
By hyperbolicparody on 7/19/2007 6:02:33 PM , Rating: 2
HD-DVD rentals likely aren't worth it right now. You need a stand-alone player or a far-from-inexpensive add-on for your XBox360.
I'll bet they see a (proportionately to number of overall players) large number BD rentals due to people with monthly rental passes that come in for PS3 game rentals. Buddy of mine worked at one of the Blockbusters where they had more XBox/PS2 games than real movies, and parents w/ kids almost always rented a movie along with their game, as opposed to the other way around.

They'll carry BD movies because one of their prime market segments (PS3 owners) will be willing to rent them, and it's a sell to parents who just bought their kid a really expensive present. Don't underestimate people's willingness to spend money to make a previous purchase "worthwhile."

I like HD-DVD, mainly because I have some personal issues with a number of the BD consortium companies...

...but in the end, WALMART will determine the victor. Whichever group eventually get their devices and media to take up 75% of the shelf space at Walmart will win (especially since large portions of America have ONLY Walmart to make technology purchases, I'd bet more than 50% of high-def TV purchases are made at Walmart now or in the near future).


RE: Yeah, right
By FITCamaro on 7/19/2007 10:43:30 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I am also saying that the HD-DVD add on doesn't play any more of a role than PS3 does, because again, that is targeted at a niche of gamers.


Thats not true. The HD-DVD addon can be counted into HD-DVD hardware sales. Yes the Xbox 360 is targeted at gamers. But the HD-DVD add on is not. If someone buys one, its for the sole intent of playing movies. And remember, you can use the HD-DVD drive with a PC too. If someone wants a cheap way to watch HD-DVD movies on their PC, they just have to go buy the HD-DVD drive and plug it in.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 10:46:53 AM , Rating: 2
Ok, i do see where you are going, and tend to agree. Then i retract my previous statement that it should not be included.


RE: Yeah, right
By wallijonn on 7/19/2007 11:34:28 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
No one in their right mind is going to buy that Optical PC BD-DVD drive just to watch movies, so lets get real. Those are sold to people and corporations who are using the 50GB discs for data, not for watching Talladega Nights.


No, anyone who buys a PC BD burner must be a pirate and also, at the same time, a potential pirate. Therefore the corporations that buy these burners should be treated like criminals and investigated vigorously. It doesn't matter that the media is expensive. The potential for abuse is staggering. And as such it should be a controlled substance, with limitations exports to unfriendly nations.

[I'm being sardonic and sarcastic, folks.]


RE: Yeah, right
By Hawkido on 7/19/2007 4:00:14 PM , Rating: 2
The PC BD drives (and HD-DVD drives are PRIMARILY sold to owners for the EXPRESS pursose of watching Movies. It is called homes theater PC's. You can rightly exclude the HD-DVD Burners and BD Burners, as they are for mass storage (I think like 12 have been sold, as they cost more than a car *exaggeration*) But if you have no burner then the HD disc readers (both camps) are worthless for anything except watching movies (and in the PS3 camp playing games as well) because no software is sold on BD or HD-DVD(except the PS3 BD titles, which there are currently so few this might as well not be listed, hopefully that will change).

As for the rest. Give us the numbers please as has been stated in these threads time and time again. Don't tell us percentage rise or decrease or false claims. Just say:

HD-DVD
Standalone:
XBox360 HD AddOn Drive:
PC-Drive:
Movies sold:
Blu-Ray
Standalone:
PS3:
PC-Drive:
Movies sold:

Wouldn't that solve everything? Each film studio and harware maker could make up their own mind. You could then extrapolate just how valuable each device type is for the movies sold.

Plus you have to take into concideration that the Blu-Ray crowd has a better opportunity to rent movies Vs. Buy movies as they have exclusive access to Blockbuster and all other video stores also rent BD titles (as of yet all other video stores are scared to dump BD titles for an exclusive contract with HD-DVD). This may actually hurt Blu-Ray as fewer people buy movies than rent them. My little town has 2 major video stores (BlockBuster and Hastings) and crap loads of smaller video stores. All the video stores (even the small ones) carry Blu-Ray. Only Hastings carries HD-DVD. Hastings says the Xbox games rent out very well, but they have only one or 2 customers that rent HD-DVD titles, The BD titles there rent at about 5 times the rate. Block Buster says the Blu-Ray titles are renting very well.

How many towns only have block buster as a major video store? If BD gets one other major video store to go exclusive it will be game over for HD-DVD as the video rental places are the ones that determine format victories (VHS Porn & Movie rentals Vs. just movie rentals on BetaMAX)
Once you only see one format in the video stores peopel know what to buy.

My wife is a marketing major. Blu-Ray sounds like a new product, HD-DVD just sounds like a bump up of a last gen. technology. Blu-Ray even shifted it's ad campaign to add High-Def Blu-Ray to its commercials, further clarifying the Blu-Ray = New High Tech in High Def.
HD-DVD = High Def. on old tech.

Plus techies have been talking for years about using blue lasers on optical discs. That may be a small group of people but they talked to lesser techie wannabes and impressed them and they only remember Blue laser now they hear Blu-Ray and think "Oh! It's finally here!"

Gripe if you want, HD-DVD has a bad name it doesn't market well. Techies have been talking about storing massive data in 3-D on crystals for years. If they would have called it HD-Crystal Disc it would have marketed much beter. It would have sounded like a new tech. "Oh! It's finally Here Data on crystals! How wonderful! I want it!"

See how it works... HD-DVD forgot to use the imbedded subliminal advertising words buried deep in our electronics consumers minds.


RE: Yeah, right
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 4:49:28 PM , Rating: 1
Interesting point about the naming of BD compared to HD-DVD. To play devil's advocate, I would suggest that HD-DVD has a slight benefit over BD with many people, simply because they are familiar with and comfortable with DVD. Therefore, they might see HD-DVD as the next technology step after DVD, whereas BD might be considered more of an unknown.

Maybe that sounds crazy to people who research the stuff prior to purchase, but to the Average Joe who walks into a store, credit card in hand, he's buying more on perception. The situation may exist of "I know what HD-DVD is, but WTF is this Blu-ray stuff anyway?"

Also, I don't think Average Joe has been waiting for blue lasers. I think he doesn't even know (or care) about the color of exisiting lasers.


RE: Yeah, right
By Hawkido on 7/19/2007 5:30:53 PM , Rating: 2
That part was also discussed in detail in marketing analysis. Technology purchases usually involve the geek factor. People find the geekiest person they can find and ask them about "new Technology" The person may not be the "person-in-the-know" but he may have read a few tech journals heard something, blah blah. I hear my Dad misquote something I read to him about a new tech and all he remembers are key words. That's about all the common person can remember about technology. All it takes is a 1-2% shift to give a larger lead.

As to the DVD to HD-DVD similarity, that actually works against them. New != Familiar. Technology is seen like this. "I'm so glad I bough this new technology! It's just like the old technology!" See what I mean. No one wants to pay $200-$600 more for something that is the same as what they currently have or just barely better.

In marketing you can actually under price your product and people will equate Cheap Price to Cheap Value. Doesn't mean it is true. "X-Brand" jeans are really no better than Generic brand jeans (Maybe alittle but not 10-20 times the price better) However, the percieved value of the "X-Brand", with it's higher price, is that it is of better value (socially, sex appeal, style). Where the actual value of the item is equal to, or in some cases with acid washed jeans less than, the Generic jeans. So the low priced HD-DVD players won't have as big of an impact, because you still need a (still expensive to the lower class) HDTV. Else you just payed $200 for a dvd player (with funky outputs that you can't use) in the era of $29 dvd players.

Where the price of the BR players with it's much higher price (while too high IMO) will still create the perception
of higher value. Restricting your sales on a popular item keeps it in the Highly Desirable zone. Razr phones held that spot for years. Once they could no longer hold that spot they dumped them on the market. Now they are everywhere. Wii? Still tucked away in the holy land of High value. You can get one if you try hard enough, get put on the velvet rope waiting list, and be deemed worthy by the god of social bouncers to be allowed into the club of acceptance. Marketing has became very effective once they blended Psycology and Sociology into it.

As far as HD-CrystalDisc... How many of you thought of the data storage crystals used in the Superman movies? Come on! Raise your hands... See, choose an embedded term that screams New Technology. Plus, the Superman movies were played to the target buyer demographic (late 20's early 30's) when they were children, so it is deeply buried into their minds.


RE: Yeah, right
By isorfir on 7/19/2007 9:12:19 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
Statistics like this also concluded that because all cars have cigarette lighters, all car owners are smokers.


I disagree with that analogy. Although it's true that not everyone who buys a PS3 will use it to play Blu-Ray movie's, I'm sure a very large percentage will.

A better analogy would be that everyone who buys a sports car will drive it fast. True, not everyone will drive their sports car fast, maybe some of them just bought it for the commute to work, but most of them will.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 9:32:13 AM , Rating: 1
I would still drive fast....even if it was only my commute to work :-)

Whats the point of buying a sports car if you wont drive it like a sports car? Its like saying what is the point of putting a lift kit of a 2WD truck, or the opposite, lowering a 4WD truck. None.


RE: Yeah, right
By HammerZ on 7/19/2007 11:12:51 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Whats the point of buying a sports car if you wont drive it like a sports car?


Then what's the point of all the SUV's in the market when most of the owners will never go off-road? :)


RE: Yeah, right
By TomZ on 7/19/2007 11:30:30 AM , Rating: 2
What gives you the idea that SUVs are designed to go off-road?


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 12:25:34 PM , Rating: 1
I dont think you see many SUV's with "OFF ROAD" stickers on them. Those are usually trucks that are made for OFF ROAD - like constructions works and sorts.


RE: Yeah, right
By FITCamaro on 7/19/2007 10:53:41 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Although it's true that not everyone who buys a PS3 will use it to play Blu-Ray movie's, I'm sure a very large percentage will.


Obviously when you compare the number of Blu-ray movies sold vs. the number of potential Blu-ray players out there (including PS3 sales) this is not the case. When you average out the total number of Blu-ray movie sales(not counting the 5 free titles you get) vs. the number of players sold, every Blu-ray player owner owns about .25 movies.

Ands thats being nice and assuming that since Blu-ray disc sales topped 1 million at the end of April, another million have been sold which is not the case. So 2 million movies vs. about 8-9 million players including the PS3.

And the majority of people who buy sports cars, don't drive them like sports cars(at least in the US). Maybe not ever, but not on an even remotely regular basis. Now the people who think they have sports cars (riced out Civics, Sentras, etc.), they drive their car like a sports car. And I smile any time I see one of them wrapped around a pole.


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 11:03:02 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Now the people who think they have sports cars (riced out Civics, Sentras, etc.), they drive their car like a sports car. And I smile any time I see one of them wrapped around a pole.


Haha yeah. Those idiots. I bet putting on those sweet wheels and stickers makes that 110hp Chevy Cavalier go fast! Please. Whats the point of putting more money into your car than what it was worth new? Just buy a nice car and leave it at that.


RE: Yeah, right
By bplewis24 on 7/19/2007 11:05:01 AM , Rating: 3
quote:
Obviously when you compare the number of Blu-ray movies sold vs. the number of potential Blu-ray players out there (including PS3 sales) this is not the case


This is simply not true, and I'm surprised that people keep bringing this up over and over again.

I am a PS3 owner. I constantly rent Blu-ray discs from Netflix. Even if I don't own any movies on BD, that does not indicate that I didn't buy the PS3 with the intention of using it as a Blu-ray player. Attach rate is not the be-all, end-all of this discussion, despite what most would want us to believe.

Brandon


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 11:10:59 AM , Rating: 2
Unless you fail to see the counter point to it. Netflix & Blockbuster both purchase movies, and rent them out. The movie manufacturers do not make nearly as much money off those businesses that rentout movies, as opposed to people who flat our purchase them. Instead of selling 10,000 discs at a volume discount to Blockbuster, they would rather sell 2/3rds that amount to a consumer.


RE: Yeah, right
By PitViper007 on 7/19/2007 2:20:29 PM , Rating: 2
Actually, and anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here, don't Blockbuster, Netflix, et. al. have to purchase their movies at a higher rate due to the fact that they are renting these movies out? Movies that the consumer purchase are purchased with a non-commercial, basically single user license. The license that the Rental companies purchase their movies under would be a commercial one which I would think would cost more. Just my thoughts. Anyone know for sure?

PitViper


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 2:45:54 PM , Rating: 2
Thats incorrect. There is no rule that would stop Netflix or Blockbuster from purchasing them at a retail store, and then renting them out. Once you purchase, it becomes your property and are free do rent out or let people borrow. As long as they do not make copies to rent out or let borrow, then they are fine.

So no, they do not pay an increased rate. They get them at discount from a supplier for purchasing in bulk. Then they go out and sell them used. So in reality, they are paying probably half what we would, while making money on each one rented.


RE: Yeah, right
By ArneBjarne on 7/19/2007 4:51:26 PM , Rating: 2
Of course Netflix/Blockbuster can't just buy discs at a retail store. Like PitViper007 said, those discs are licensed for home use only, which is hardly what Netflix/Blockbuster are using their rental discs for. (Try reading the FBI warning etc. next time ;))

You seriously think the movie companies don't want a piece of the pie every time Netflix/Blockbuster rent out one of their titles???


RE: Yeah, right
By mdogs444 on 7/19/2007 5:32:08 PM , Rating: 1
I dont believe that is correct. If so, then they would not be able to sell their previewed movies to their customers after they've been rented out.


RE: Yeah, right
By RubberJohnny on 7/20/2007 12:37:07 AM , Rating: 3
Hey i've got a good idea, why dont mdogs444, FITcamaro and TomZ meet up and have a X360/HD-DVD love in somewhere?

Damn, evertime there's an article posted on either of these topics you guys tend to shove your heads up your arses. You know it'd be more enjoyable if you get a daisy chain going...


RE: Yeah, right
By Hawkido on 7/19/2007 4:54:20 PM , Rating: 2
Okay 1 million BR discs sold before it is even one year old (april 23rd 2007). How many HD-DVD disc have been sold to date, and how many months old is HD-DVD? 15 months old? Have they even crossed the 1 million mark yet? Not as of April 23rd 2007. I haven't heard it and I doubt they would actually surpress a real number that sounds good because the HD-DVD marketing group has been stretching their other numbers till a 1 looks like a square.

I agree that in the long run, PS3 won't have much to do with disc sales. However, it also sounds to me like PS3 has an astounding early impact on sales. Sounds to me like going BR exclusive at Block buster has made a bigger splash, and that has only recently happened. That will drive sales up more for BR discs. It will also boost customer confidence in BR. As it will be the only HD format in BB stores (a few BB stores(~200) will still stock both). Will BR hit 2 million before HD-DVD hits 1 million? (has HD-DVD hit 1M yet? I don't know and can't find the number od disc sales. Lemme know if you fid out!) That would pretty much be the last nail wouldn't it? More BR exclusives than HD-DVD exclusives means no video store in their right mind would drop BR (unless the studios shift their format or go dual format), but BB wasn't afraid to drop HD-DVD. Who's next? Video stores have a huge impact on which format wins (Porn rentals on VHS, but not BetaMAX). With this information, it makes it clear that HD-DVD brought in some damage-control marketing firm to try and spin up someting like good news. I bet Bill Gates' garage is full of HD-DVD movies he bought just to drive up sales numbers. He probably gives them away to MS employees and friends by the shopping cart load. Just to try and stuff the numbers.


"So, I think the same thing of the music industry. They can't say that they're losing money, you know what I'm saying. They just probably don't have the same surplus that they had." -- Wu-Tang Clan founder RZA

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