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Print 100 comment(s) - last by retrospooty.. on Jun 28 at 2:12 PM

Apple stock enters a downward spiral

Apple is easily one of the most valuable companies in the world, not just the technology industry. However, recently Apple's share price dipped below $400 per share for the first time since April. The deflating stock price resulted as a stockpile of unsold iPhones prompted Jefferies & Co. to lower its target price for Apple stock.

At the same time, a company called Global Equities Research also showed that low morale was causing employees to leave Apple. While Apple stock was trading as low as $398.05 per share yesterday, Apple stock closed down 2.7% to $402.54. Apple shares have fallen 24% this year, and the stock is down 43% compared to its record high of $705 in September.
 
While Apple stock is on the decline, competitor Google has seen its stock gain 23% this year.


Bloomberg reports that one reason for the stock decline is that many analysts are concerned that CEO Tim Cook is taking too long to deliver new breakthrough products. Reports indicate that retailers and wireless carriers currently have two times the normal level of iPhone inventory on hand and Apple is selling fewer handsets than expected. This would explain the latest trade-in offers and slashed prices on iPhone 5 smartphones from Best Buy and Walmart respectively.

Analyst Peter Misek from Jefferies recently wrote in a report that he expects Apple to build a maximum of 85 million iPhones in the second half of 2013 compared to previous estimates for 110 million units.

Many are expecting Apple to release cheaper versions of the iPhone and versions of the iPhone with larger screens. Those devices will go along way to helping Apple grow its market share according to many analysts. However, the next generation iPhones are not expected until the fall to accompany the launch of iOS 7.

Source: Bloomberg



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Love seeing Apple fail
By techxx on 6/25/2013 9:23:09 AM , Rating: 5
Always despised this company. Let's get those shares down to $10!




RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By quiksilvr on 6/25/2013 9:42:10 AM , Rating: 5
This is actually one of those situations where you really don't want that to happen. Instead, falling stocks should be an incentive to actually improve the company's practices and products (as well as their pricing), not an incentive to fall into the nether, never to be heard form again.

I despise Apple, but I don't believe that a company should simply disappear. It should change for the better and earn its right back.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Mitch101 on 6/25/2013 10:36:44 AM , Rating: 3
Apple is deteriorating without Steve Jobs. They are starting to copy Windows Phone now and do all the things Steve didnt want them to do. While they have to adapt to survive they are out of real ideas/innovation even if they are not thier own. They dont know which ones are worth stealing and able to preach like they invented it. They dont buy other innovative companies worth buying and they cant keep charging high prices when the compeition products are doing it just as good if not better at half the cost. People will pay for innovative solid products but not for rehashed and incremental updates.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Mint on 6/25/2013 10:23:59 AM , Rating: 2
LOL they have $150B+ in cash. They could liquidate all operations and still be worth $150/share.

Lest any Apple fans be bitter about Google and handset makers 'copying' Apple, note that Apple made an obscene amount of money from its first mover advantage - more than all its competitors combined. They were rewarded plenty for their 'innovation'.

But being first does not entitle you to endless profits, and you need to keep evolving. Apple's stock hit $700 because its shareholders thought it would do just that, but it didn't, so now Apple's stock has fallen back to more reasonable levels.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 10:36:56 AM , Rating: 2
Exactly... More of the same + slightly faster isnt going to keep working forever. Not with the powerhouse phones that are out now.

With that said, I am willing to bet an iPhone with a 5 inch screen and higher res would sell huge amounts at high prices. Maybe in 2014.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 1:50:19 PM , Rating: 2
With that much cash, they can actually lay off everyone and just take billions in interest a year. They'll just have a total of 3 employees and annual profit margins of 99+% before taxes.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By w8gaming on 6/25/2013 7:38:56 PM , Rating: 2
The cash reserve belongs to the investors, not Apple. From the investor point of view, cash reserve sitting idle that does not contribute anything to earn more profit is not a good thing. It is better paid out as dividend so that the investor can find ways to turn better profit. In fact, cash reserve can disappear quickly if the senior management of a company makes a series of bad decisions, such as buying other companies. Yes, the cash reserve alone worth $150/share, but that does not represent the future worth of Apple.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By ltcommanderdata on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Motoman on 6/25/2013 3:21:26 PM , Rating: 5
It would be worth it.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By coondini on 6/25/2013 10:33:00 AM , Rating: 2
Can't wait to see the Swash Spin™ on this one. That is sure to be entertaining.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 1:47:38 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
The position of Apple remains what it has been for quite some time, the most succesful PC OEM, easily the most successful mobile device company with the strongest mobile platform, the world's largest digital content business, the world's most succesful retail operation, and a simply gigantic cash mountain ensuring financial stability for the next decade.

He is right but exaggerated a bit. Apple's stability isn't because of their market presence anymore. Tech market goes too quick so any giant can be toppled. Their dominance in the coming years will come from the $140B cash they have.

quote:
Every other player in the tech business would love to be in the same position as Apple, they know that and so do you. It's why they all try to copy Apple so much.

Unfortunately, he is right here also. HP pretty made a clone of apple's macbook pro lol. Not everyone copies apple though. It did give everyone a swift kick in the butt to get moving.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By momorere on 6/25/2013 2:38:55 PM , Rating: 2
Vibrant success huh ? Kinda like all the hyped up new model laptops being "captured" and returned for investigations ? I love how crApple is the first company to jump onto new technologies (developed by others, of course) to try and taunt it as being the greatest thing ever and it blowing up in their faces or not even becoming mainstream.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/arti...


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 2:44:19 PM , Rating: 2
I think that is an effect of the iCloud in Tonys head. ;)


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Xplorer4x4 on 6/27/2013 5:00:44 PM , Rating: 2
Yep, he is programmed just like a robot.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By momorere on 6/25/2013 4:24:31 PM , Rating: 5
You are absolutely right. EVERY site on the internet dealing with stocks and such are conspiring to make crApple look bad. I guess the imaginary HUGE drop in stock price and hardware failings of brand new products are all just hopes and dreams. If your idea of a rarely sweeter time is the current situation and stagnation of crApple, I really pity you. I love how you always point back to profits when something negative or truthful is stated against your beloved company.

We get it man, we get it. It's all about profits, profits, and prophets. I simply call it the Tony Swash syndrome. Since you quote and use BI as facts, have a quick peak at this. I'll even highlight the Tony Swash syndrome part for you.

Instead of being royally pissed off that Apple has a tiny sliver of the overall smartphone market, those people are too happy to point out that Apple makes more money than any other company in the smartphone market.

While it's certainly important to be profitable, at some point it becomes obscene, and self-defeating.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-incredible-p...

But you get the point. Anything bad said about your beloved is taken as a personal hit to your ego. And of course any product recalls or such "makes no difference" as it is mark against the Holy land. crApple fanatics are just as bad if not worse than the extreme jihadist and take offense to anything towards their god.

By the way the falling stock price is messing with the simple minds of crApple employees. So, they may be losing alot here shortly due to that and the fact that they have been sending out their resumes to other companies for awhile now too.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 5:04:29 PM , Rating: 3
Funny how you are pleased with things like profit, web traffic and having the latest OS rather than what your device actually does for you. I am certainly happy that you take pleasure from Apples webtraffic though... For whatever its worth. Yay webtraffic... Were #1. Trafficiest web on the net.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 5:48:03 PM , Rating: 3
Right... I forgot. The fanboy deluxe. ;)


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By testerguy on 6/26/2013 7:46:46 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Funny how you are pleased with things like profit, web traffic and having the latest OS rather than what your device actually does for you. I am certainly happy that you take pleasure from Apples webtraffic though... For whatever its worth. Yay webtraffic... Were #1. Trafficiest web on the net.


Funny how you are pleased with things like device activations and having an outdated OS rather than what your device actually does for you. I am certainly happy that you take pleasure from Android's feature phone sales though... For whatever its worth. Yay activations... Were #1. Most activated on the net.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/26/2013 8:14:41 AM , Rating: 1
The obvious flaw in your logic is that I didnt say those things. Tony did, just above said it pleased him. I actually do care what my device does for me and any debate I have had is rooted in that. Unlike you and Tony, whos debates are rooted in defense of a company. I couldnt care less about Google or Android. The second something better comes along, I drop them like a clingy bitch. Right now, there is nothing better... Although IOS made a big move forward in my book with copying WebOS's task switching. That and a larger phone with better res would turn me. Thinking of an iPad mini with Retina anyhow if it comes out. For my purposes, the missing features of IOS wont affect me on my tablet.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By testerguy on 6/26/2013 10:47:26 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
The obvious flaw in your logic is that I didnt say those things


If you are honestly trying to claim that you've never ranted on about how Samsung or Android are outselling Apple - there's just no point continuing. You don't always talk about the device - quite often you go on about sales and I always wondered why you even cared.

quote:
Unlike you and Tony, whos debates are rooted in defense of a company


Pointing out your hypocrisy isn't defending anything, let alone a company.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/26/2013 11:29:24 AM , Rating: 2
We have discussed what sells more in the context of what sells more and is more popular. Also as it affects user install base, but not that I get "pleasure" from it as Tony mentions above. You are simply too angry to have any debate with. You put yourself in a hole by defending a company then come out fist flying to anyone that disagrees.

Flake off little man.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By testerguy on 6/27/2013 1:42:23 AM , Rating: 2
So - you now admit you have ranted about sales figures, proving my point.

And if you want to talk about context - Tony talking about the stock value rather than the device on an article about stock price seems to suggest you're disproving your own point.

As for 'anger' - where on earth did you get that from? And which part of my previous comment where I explained I'm not defending any company did you not understand?


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/27/2013 8:12:48 AM , Rating: 2
"So - you now admit you have ranted about sales figures, proving my point."

Ranted? No, it has been discussed in the contexts mentioned above.

"And if you want to talk about context - Tony talking about the stock value rather than the device on an article about stock price seems to suggest you're disproving your own point. "

Again, for the 3rd time. I was commenting on the fact that the positive measures "please" him. Are you not reading prior to resonding?

"which part of my previous comment where I explained I'm not defending any company did you not understand?"

The part where you act as if you arent here to defend a company. You cant come in here, defend Apple at every step, only post in Apple articles and only in favor of Apple and simply say "I am not defending Apple" and make it true. it isnt and you and I both know it... So does anyone that frequents these comment sections. Are you really that stupid to think no-one else notices you are here on the same agenda as Tony? You are a couple of lemmings. MY god, get a life outside of defending a company , no company is worth it.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By testerguy on 6/28/2013 6:16:37 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I was commenting on the fact that the positive measures "please" him


Are you seriously trying to suggest that 'Tony likes Apple' was your point?

quote:
You cant come in here, defend Apple at every step


So which of my comments in this thread are doing that, then? The fact I haven't immediately invalidates the rest of your comment.

quote:
only post in Apple articles


You keep saying this, I wonder if you think it means anything, whatsoever? My points are the same regardless of whether or not I've wasted time on other articles on this site. At most, it shows that I'm interested in smartphones. Shocking.

quote:
and simply say "I am not defending Apple" and make it true


Ironically, like right now - how you are simply claiming 'you're defending Apple' - believing that makes it true.

quote:
Are you really that stupid to think no-one else notices you are here on the same agenda as Tony?


Actually I think impartial observers would be able to discern between a factual statement or set of observations about a company and being a fan boy. I'm also quietly confident that your anti-Apple hatred and self-confessed irrational decision making (ie the FRAND discussion where you based your opinion on REPUTATION, not the facts) is quite obviously apparent to any educated impartial observer.

It's clear to me that you only interpret me as someone with an Apple agenda because I disprove the nonsense you propagate with your own agenda. Given your self-confessed dislike of Apple it's pretty ridiculous that you try to claim you're above things like that 'no company is worth it'....

You get your validation from Reclaimer77 (who as far as I'm concerned is your incest son) and Cheese (who I label a monkey for a reason) which makes you forget that you are completely off the rails and have no balance whatsoever.

If you weren't so unbalanced, my replies correcting you wouldn't have to appear the same.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/28/2013 2:12:38 PM , Rating: 2
Delusional or lying sack??? I really don't care which you are. Just wondering if you are trying to convince yourself or others.

http://www.dailytech.com/CommentUser.aspx?user=286...

Case closed. End of story.

Jackass.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By RayW on 6/26/2013 3:54:56 AM , Rating: 1
You don't own any Apple stock? I guess at some point you wised up and dumped it. Must have been at $700 too, since you are so obviously the smartest guy on this board.

Oh sorry, I spelled 'smug' wrong.

Twit. Do try to keep up.

---
RE: Apple Stock
By Tony Swash on 8/10/2011 7:00:08 PM , Rating: 2

quote:
I am eager to hear from someone who own Apple shares. Do you?

I do. I am keeping them. Apple, unlike everybody else, have had a twenty years strategy for the post PC world, listen to Steve Jobs various speeches back when he returned in 1997, listen to the vision he outlined. It came true. He rebuilt the company from the ground up in his image and now it purrs like a finely tuned machine whether Jobs is around or not. Apple sales will explode in China in the next two years. Apple will double in size. I am keeping my shares.

Google made a strategic mistake of immense proportions when it betrayed it's alliance with Apple and turned them into enemies. Android is an astoundingly bad strategy for Google to deal with the threat and opportunities of the post-pc world (in Google's case mostly threats). I can still see no sound reason why Google thinks Android is good for Google. I think they drifted into a ridiculous adventure partly through hubris and partly through poor corporate governance and poor leadership. Google will end up paying a very high price for Android. It's a shame really - they seemed so interesting for a while, perhaps a force for good and then they let themselves fall into being a sort of poor mans Microsoft V2 only without the gravity or clout. If you set out to seriously attack the business of most of the major large tech companies with products you don't actually make any money on you you end up making some very powerful enemies for no good reason. Madness.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/26/2013 7:08:00 AM , Rating: 2
HAHAHAAAHHAHAHAHAAH, caught him in his own lie. Now THAT is funny, I don't care who you are.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/26/2013 8:15:45 AM , Rating: 2
LOL... Awesome.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Tony Swash on 6/26/2013 3:35:30 PM , Rating: 1
Sigh. I did own Apple stock. I don't now. Why on earth would anyone outside of the financial sector care about the price of stock they don't own. You guys are so funny. The straws you clutch at aren't even real straws.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/26/2013 4:07:47 PM , Rating: 2
"Why on earth would anyone outside of the financial sector care about the price of stock they don't own"

Right, stock price doesnt matter. What is important is web traffic. As long as you get the most web traffic. /rolls eyes.

Doofus.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By RayW on 6/26/2013 9:39:53 PM , Rating: 2
Sigh.

I thought you would be keeping your precious Apple stock for the next 2 years while sales take off in China? Perhaps something made you change your mind about holding this world-beating stock--would you care to share? Your insight on this and everything else, including outright clairvoyance regarding Google's massive future fail with Android has been truly astounding.

Oh sorry, I spelled 'worthless' wrong.

Sigh.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/27/2013 4:23:23 PM , Rating: 2
This is the ultimate laugher...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/26/h...

STAB at Tony's company based heart ;)


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By StevoLincolnite on 6/25/2013 7:59:48 PM , Rating: 2
Tony... Sorry. But can't resist, this is how the world looks upon iStuff.
http://pics.blameitonthevoices.com/062010/small_li...


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By retrospooty on 6/26/2013 11:40:02 AM , Rating: 2
You gotta admit, the Mac does look easier to use ;)


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Marmadoc on 6/26/2013 7:27:12 AM , Rating: 1
Now there´s a troll that just can´t resist a juicy bait.


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By rountad on 6/25/2013 4:08:57 PM , Rating: 2
the trademark symbol was a nice touch


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By hau101 on 6/26/2013 1:01:39 AM , Rating: 2
As much as I dislike Apple, for them to disappear means Samsung will pretty much own the phone market, unless all iphone users switch to Windows Phone or Blackberry.

But...still might be worth it? lol


RE: Love seeing Apple fail
By Da W on 6/26/2013 6:46:22 AM , Rating: 2
And I despise Google.


What happened to...
By Oyster on 6/25/2013 10:17:10 AM , Rating: 2
... all those calls for Apple stock being worth $1000? Oh, and all the DailyTech articles boasting about Apple being the most valuable company in the world (market cap) when the stock was hovering around $700. I'd love to hear from those who bought this thing at $700.




RE: What happened to...
By Mint on 6/25/2013 10:27:19 AM , Rating: 2
I'm still pissed about not shorting it. I even posted on DT saying I would, and was waiting for $750. I thought it would get there with all the calls of $1000.

Oh well. Live and learn...


RE: What happened to...
By ertomas on 6/25/2013 12:20:53 PM , Rating: 2
I didn't short Facebook and didn't short Apple... I had intention on doing both but chickened out. I failed :(


RE: What happened to...
By tng on 6/25/2013 6:32:02 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
... all those calls for Apple stock being worth $1000?
Everybody makes calls about a hot company being hotter than it really is, the real problem for Apple is that their stock went from $705 to $400 in under a year? On top of the fact they don't like paying a dividend?

What would be the point in keeping the stock from an investment point of view? I assume that most serious investors sold just after the slide started and unless you are in it for the really long haul or bought at a much lower cost, then you are really thinking about not if but when you should sell.


will get worse from here
By w8gaming on 6/25/2013 7:35:19 PM , Rating: 3
No surprise there. The smartphone market is reaching saturation point and going into "purchase for replacement" cycle. The sales unit will not be that high in the future. Even Samsung S4 is showing signs of slowing down in sales. Selling a cheap iPhone, will help in market share and ensure a healthy app store ecosystem in the future, but it will not help Apple share price because margin will be much lower and it will cannibalize their premium segment. The previous high share price of Apple is based on assumption that Apple will ends up beating all competitors running Android or W8 etc, and it has not happened and show no sign of it will ever happen. Becoming the most valuable company in the world while the company is selling only a few high premium, non essential goods is not a good thing as it is not possible to sustain that position. Current share price is supported by the huge cash reserve Apple has, once that is paid out as dividend the price will go even lower.




Not at all surprising.
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 9:09:52 AM , Rating: 2
Its long overdue for a major upgrade... And I dont just mean shiny new icons ;)




But...
By Fleeb on 6/25/2013 11:45:32 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Those devices will go along way to helping Apple grow its market share according to many analysts.


It's not about the market share. Some guy in here always points that out.




By Concillian on 6/25/2013 2:00:30 PM , Rating: 2
You know how people always used to upgrade their computer because they'd see significant performance increases with the new one? And how they do so WAY less often now, because their current one does what they need fine?

Yeah... phones are reaching that point.

Even bargain phones have dual cores, which takes care of the performance concerns of most. They have adequate enough memory and enough processing to keep people happy.

I think we're done seeing the "next BIG thing" and are only going to be seeing the "next thing" from here on out. Everyone is reaching for features and shotgunning in hopes that it's the next BIG thing, but we're done with BIG. My wife and I are both on perfectly adequate 2 year old phones (GS2 and iPhone 4S) There's nothing we need the next BIG thing for that our phones don't do adequately now.

This is why inventory is increasing, this is why stock is on the decline. The smartphone rollout happened. It's done, and now we'll see a slowdown in turnover and exchanges.

Apple was trading at insane and unsustainable multiples. It's slowly floating back down to more practical valuations.




Global Equities Research?
By name99 on 6/25/2013 2:16:07 PM , Rating: 2
So you're worried about what Global Equities Research thinks? Would this be the same Global Equities Research which said, on June 3, 2013, and I quote:
quote:
"iOS7 has a very simple, clean and uncluttered UI (User Interface), which may take little time to be appreciated.”

The authors add that “iOS7 is completed new UI, which is far superior to anything that is available out there.”

and that they feel a realistic valuation for Apple is $650/share?

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/06/0...




What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/13, Rating: -1
RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 10:12:10 AM , Rating: 2
"The lowered sales of iphones is because of the recent news of the upcoming iphone update."

The yearly update is a known thing. They have sales expectations and orders for parts and have lowered them. Same thing with Samsung and the S4. Not much of an improvement over the S3 and they arent selling as well as Samsung expected. I dont know what they were thinking with a 100 million unit goal, but it will not happen. Too many other good phones to choose from.

In Apple's case, part of the issue is that people see what is coming and know it's just more of the same. Based on the supply chain and the millions of parts that are already on order we can confirm the iPhone 5s will be exactly what we already knew it would be... The exact same thing only a bit faster. It will have the same small, low res screen with a faster CPU and a few new software features. Oh boy, let the excitement commence.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 10:58:55 AM , Rating: 2
It's common to have increases and decreases in inventory. That's the whole point of having an inventory. They can adjust with dec/inc orders. It's no a big deal in operation management unless you are getting no sales. There's trigger point in inventory control to raise or decrease orders. This is straight out of Operation and Supply Chain Management text book.

I'm saying it would have little effects on stock price. The current situation is a global problem because it is mainly the feds and China's economy. Feds as in Federal Reserve. Most of the recent decreases in Apple's stock price is from these news. The increase in inventory is not the main contributor.

Just so you know, anything involving the Feds will cause a global change. Our currency is the universal currency. The world is more dependent on our economy than we are dependent on theirs. It doesn't help that Bernanke is so damn transparent that it is causing a panic.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 11:05:04 AM , Rating: 2
You are acting like there is a global downturn. All major stock measures are very near several year, if not all time highs. There isn't a global problem. At least not with smartphones, manufacturing, and related stocks. This is a simple cause and effect. Sales arent quite what was expected, manufacturing orders have been lowered and the stock dips from it. Not a major issue.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 11:26:51 AM , Rating: 3
Look at historical data on recession. We are hitting another bubble again. The economist and investors realized it. Feds states they are lowering purchases of bonds to decrease money supply and control the bubble/inflation. That is the simple explanation.

There are a lot of other factors contributing to this. It is about the banks and their reserves. It's just sitting there. Banks are not lending like they're supposed to. They only push government backed loans at the moment to avoid liabilities. The feds have to stop flooding money because the banks are not doing anything with it. There's a lot of money out there and that's why the bond interest rate is so low. But after Bernanke spoke, the bond interest rate jumped to 2.46% from the low 2s.

If I give you a detailed explanation, it would take like 10 pages. Just know that the current bubbles is generated in the stock market. We're at an all time high in stock while the economy hasn't really bounced back. That's because the money supply that was increased did not go back into businesses and the people. It went into the stock market or sitting in the bank. It caused the current bubble and is unsustainable. The feds are simply trying to control this by lowering money supply. At the same time, it hurts businesses looking for capital. These dumb bankers are still causing problems even after the feds bailed them out last time.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 11:41:55 AM , Rating: 2
Okeeedokee... But the analysts mentioned in the artivel above and other market analysts disagree with that.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11960834/1/iphone-w...

"Analyst Peter Misek from Jefferies recently wrote in a report that he expects Apple to build a maximum of 85 million iPhones in the second half of 2013 compared to previous estimates for 110 million units ."

"Bloomberg reports that one reason for the stock decline is that many analysts are concerned that CEO Tim Cook is taking too long to deliver new breakthrough products . Reports indicate that retailers and wireless carriers currently have two times the normal level of iPhone inventory on hand and Apple is selling fewer handsets than expected. "


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 11:58:09 AM , Rating: 2
And analysts are wrong as often as they are right. There was one contest between monkeys and expert analysts. The monkeys won. I've seen experts post some ridiculous plain false information about tech companies before.

You cannot sit there and deny the fact that the US stock market just took 7% decrease in the past month. Which all of that happened because of the feds. Not only did apple's stock went down, almost every single stock I owned besides AMD went down. I'm not saying the drop in stock price had nothing to do with the inventory increase. I'm saying it is much less than the article made you believe.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:14:51 PM , Rating: 2
You cannot sit there and deny the fact that the US stock market just took 7% decrease in the past month.

You also cannot deny that the markets are way up over the past months.

DJIA - Year to date: up 12.75%
DJIA - Last 1 year: up 18.15%
NASDAQ - Year to date: up 10.77%
NASDAQ - Last 1 year: up 17.95%

Apple - Year to date: down 24.48%
Apple- Last 1 year: down 29.59%

See the difference?


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:27:37 PM , Rating: 2
So you move the period from one month to one year?
lol I guess Steve Job's has nothing to do with apple.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:35:17 PM , Rating: 2
No, you moved the conversation from Apple's phones not selling as well as expected and turned it into a "stock market in general" conversation, so I posted Apple vs the "stock market in general" #'s showing that your theory doesnt hold water.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:41:06 PM , Rating: 2
But... If you want to look at a narrow 1 month view... It's still not tracking. (BTW, these #'s are up the the miute as of a few minutes ago)

DJIA - last 1 month: down 4.14%
Nasdaq - last 1 month: down 4.19%
Apple - last 1 month: down 9.02%

------------------------------------
DJIA - Year to date: up 12.75%
DJIA - Last 1 year: up 18.15%
NASDAQ - Year to date: up 10.77%
NASDAQ - Last 1 year: up 17.95%

Apple - Year to date: down 24.48%
Apple- Last 1 year: down 29.59%


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:50:24 PM , Rating: 2
Did you expect Apple to decrease 4% like the DJ or Nasdaq?
I guess volatility is not a word.

I guess nothing happened in China.

Why do you keep using the year comparison? A year comparison is an irrelevant piece of information when the news is about this month's inventory surplus.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:53:13 PM , Rating: 3
You are seriously bent. Look at the #'s 1 month, year to date, or 1 year, Apple is NOT following the market, Apple is severely underperforming to the market no matter how you look at it.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:44:55 PM , Rating: 1
and you're retarded to think this news that just happened have any effect starting a year ago. I would say a month ago might be legitimate because some people knew about this and may have leaked to the big investors. As for the public, we're usually the last to know.

So moving your timeline back that far is disregarding all events that happened during those 11 months. Like the change in CEO and stagnant "innovations" in products.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:49:22 PM , Rating: 2
What are you even talking about? #1, he has been CEO for 2 years now, since summer 2011. #2, look at the #'s 1 month, year to date, or 1 year, Apple is NOT following the market, Apple is severely underperforming to the market.

Cheese is right about you. You take your argument way past the point you have been proven wrong and just make yourself look stupid with incorrect facts and ridiculous notions.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:55:39 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
What are you even talking about? #1, he has been CEO for 2 years now, since summer 2011. #2, look at the #'s 1 month, year to date, or 1 year, Apple is NOT following the market, Apple is severely underperforming to the market.

How do you evaluate a CEO's performance? I guess you can tell by his first day in office? After the first year, it's clear to everyone that Tim is nowhere near Steve's performance.

Even up to this date, all the products I've seen were in development by Steve. Even the upcoming watch. Tim Cook has been riding on Steve Job's legacy and now it's fading. His new plan is to flood the market with products in both high and low end. You wonder why people are afraid of the margins decreasing.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 1:00:44 PM , Rating: 2
I didnt bring up the CEO and I dont care about the CEO's performance. YOU brought that change in subject up.

Look, this is very simple. The article and several analysts are attributing the price drop to excess inventory - as in sales are lower than expected. The lowering of forecast and parts orders confirm it. YOU came in and said its more about the market in general dropping recently. I showed up to the minute FACTS about Apple price vs. 2 different well known market averages. 1 month, year to date and 1 year. In all 3 Apple is underperforming. That is it and that is all. I aam done with this stupid conversation. You are all over the place jumping from subject to subject, incorrect, and irritating.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 1:04:59 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I didnt bring up the CEO and I dont care about the CEO's performance. YOU brought that change in subject up.

I brought up CEO's performance because you moved the time line to a year. If you think CEO's performance has nothing to do with stock price then you are a joke.

Your simple mind doesn't seem to grasp that there are hundreds to thousands of factors that can affect a stock price. This inventory problem is a small part. Their inventory goes up and down every month. If they missed projections, they just adjust it. Every product company have this problem. Considering how Apple is very good with supply chain and logistics, this is a minor problem. They don't produce any products either so canceling orders does not hurt them since there is no fixed cost to maintain.


RE: What the hell?
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/25/2013 1:06:43 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Cheese is right about you. You take your argument way past the point you have been proven wrong and just make yourself look stupid with incorrect facts and ridiculous notions.
Yep. Thank you.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 1:10:37 PM , Rating: 2
I know... WTF. Every conversation goes on all these tangents and taken to extremes. In the end, Apple isnt hurting, they are obviously financially healty... The point being made is that sales arent what was expected, and looking at the next round, the iPhone 5s doesnt look interesting either. Same tiny low res screen but faster . Yawn


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 1:26:31 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
I know... WTF. Every conversation goes on all these tangents and taken to extremes. In the end, Apple isnt hurting, they are obviously financially healty...

What extreme and tangents. Everything I've stated are direct effects from both Micro and Macroeconomics.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 2:06:06 PM , Rating: 2
"What extreme and tangents."

I agree with the article, and the analysts quoted in the article. You think its more about the market in general. A point that you differ from myself and the analysts and the article and the other article I linked to. OK fine, we dont agree.

Extreme and tangent? Right here. All things quoted by you.

"Look at historical data on recession. We are hitting another bubble again".

"How do you evaluate a CEO's performance? I guess you can tell by his first day in office? After the first year, it's clear to everyone that Tim is nowhere near Steve's performance."

"Your simple mind doesn't seem to grasp that there are hundreds to thousands of factors that can affect a stock price. "

for example...


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 2:36:50 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Extreme and tangent? Right here. ...

Historical data, annual performance review, multiple variables affecting stock prices are extreme and tangent?

What world are you living in. In mine, there are billions of people and millions of businesses creating a global network of wealth and markets. In turn, stock prices are affected by multiple factors.

Did you not even notice the recent crash in the market in the past week? I guess that had nothing to do with the stock price lowering?

You don't even know your variables and just blindly agree and you think you're so right because some troll named cheesewiz agrees with you lol


RE: What the hell?
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/25/2013 2:48:39 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
troll named cheesewiz
If this isn't the pot calling the kettle black. Get a job and a clue you retard.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 2:52:18 PM , Rating: 2
I repeat...

DJIA - last 1 month: down 4.14%
Nasdaq - last 1 month: down 4.19%
Apple - last 1 month: down 9.02%

------------------------------------
DJIA - Year to date: up 12.75%
DJIA - Last 1 year: up 18.15%
NASDAQ - Year to date: up 10.77%
NASDAQ - Last 1 year: up 17.95%

Apple - Year to date: down 24.48%
Apple- Last 1 year: down 29.59%

Again, I wasnt saying Apple is any large trouble, just that what all the analysts are seeing is correct... And it NOT just about the past week, the product has been looking aged and the competition strong for a while thus the major drop, thhus the 1 year relevant info. No they aren't hurting, but they sure aren't growing like they were and could REALLY use updated products, not just an iPhone 5s with the same features only a bit faster again (again).


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 3:03:12 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Again, I wasnt saying Apple is any large trouble, just that what all the analysts are seeing is correct... And it NOT just about the past week, the product has been looking aged and the competition strong for a while thus the major drop, thhus the 1 year relevant info

That's great. You've only proved that you've gotten off tracked. Go back to the original comment you replied to.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 3:41:01 PM , Rating: 2
"You've only proved that you've gotten off tracked. Go back to the original comment you replied to."

Are you daft? This is my original comment and it is all on the same track. The only different tracks are the ones you keep bringing in.

"In Apple's case, part of the issue is that people see what is coming and know it's just more of the same. Based on the supply chain and the millions of parts that are already on order we can confirm the iPhone 5s will be exactly what we already knew it would be... The exact same thing only a bit faster. It will have the same small, low res screen with a faster CPU and a few new software features. Oh boy, let the excitement commence."

God damn dood, focus. I dont know if you have ADD, or your a a complete and utter moron, or just messing with me.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/26/2013 8:15:54 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
Are you daft? This is my original comment and it is all on the same track. The only different tracks are the ones you keep bringing in.

I'm the one who started this thread. Therefore, the only original post is mine.


RE: What the hell?
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/25/2013 1:59:39 PM , Rating: 2
And, notice he always has to have the last word.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 2:10:00 PM , Rating: 2
I know... On top of that, he is just all over the place. It's not that he is 100% wrong, He is usually half wrong (which is still an F by any scholastic measure). It's also that he is having conversations no-one else is having. LOL.


RE: What the hell?
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/26/2013 8:28:51 AM , Rating: 2
I think he is a little slow in the head to be honest...


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:00:41 PM , Rating: 2
http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/it...

how about the hundreds of articles about QE that's been around for months? you seem to concentrate on the small picture.


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:09:28 PM , Rating: 2
This isnt about the market in general, its about Smartphones and lowered orders.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:39:59 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Apple Stock Dips to $400 as iPhone Inventory Climbs


Stock price doesn't change only because of iphone inventory. It changes based on a lot of things. Apple sells more than iphones and is in a global economy. The major contributor in the recent month is not the inventory problem, but the QE and global market problem. Usually, a news like this only cause stock price to drop for one day and never 10% change over a 1 month period.

quote:
This isnt about the market in general, its about Smartphones and lowered orders.

I guess the drop in the whole market had nothing to do with the share price of apple.


RE: What the hell?
By ilt24 on 6/25/2013 12:38:14 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
A recent JP Morgan report demonstrated fears over the Galaxy S4's sluggish sales. In June, the financial services firm cut share-price estimates by 9.5 percent, and lowered the company's 2013 earnings estimate by nine percent -- which sent shares plummeting.

JP Morgan cited poor European consumer demand as the reason for lower-than-expected shipment rates, and as a result cut predictive annual S4 shipments by 20 - 30 percent. Originally, the South Korean firm was expected to sell 80 million Galaxy S4 units this year, but estimates are now closer to 60 million. In response to the report, CEO Jongkyun Shin denied there was a problem with current sales figures.


http://www.zdnet.com/samsung-to-retire-the-galaxy-...


RE: What the hell?
By retrospooty on 6/25/2013 12:45:48 PM , Rating: 2
I am not getting your point (possibly because you didnt even bother write a single thing)... I mentioned in my very 1st post this is the same thing that Samsung is going through with the S4.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:57:39 PM , Rating: 3
he's saying the market as a whole ended up having less demand than what was projected by the smartphone industry. How hard is that to figure out.


RE: What the hell?
By rubbahbandman on 6/25/2013 1:10:43 PM , Rating: 2
While I agree we are hitting another bubble again in the stock market, I don't believe lending the money out to main street would put our economy in better shape overall (at least not yet).

The main problem with getting the money out to everyone is that short-term we'd see huge benefits, but these same benefits would cause rampant inflation once the masses have money so the end result would be disastrous.

The Fed is basically "very carefully" printing tens of billions of dollars every month and miraculously not driving inflation to the heavens. My understanding is this is being accomplished by avoiding the multiplier effect that results from bank lending - specifically bank lending to the masses.

I'm guessing the Fed's goal is to disguise all the money that could potentially go into the money supply for the masses, and use it to shore up the banks (this part was already obvious) but I don't think anyone really realizes the house of cards that was actually built and how fragile a position we're all in.

A bubble in the stock market is significantly more manageable than the systemic problems that would arise from lending to small businesses and Joes like us. So...in my opinion that's why the money is staying out of main street's hands and I agree with the logic.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 1:20:43 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
While I agree we are hitting another bubble again in the stock market, I don't believe lending the money out to main street would put our economy in better shape overall (at least not yet).

We're not lending the money out to wall street. The feds are buying bonds from the the banks and thus increasing the money supply in the system. That is how money is created, whenever the the US treasury sell another bond. The feds cannot buy the bonds directly from the government so they buy from banks or you.

quote:
The Fed is basically "very carefully" printing tens of billions of dollars every month and miraculously not driving inflation to the heavens. My understanding is this is being accomplished by avoiding the multiplier effect that results from bank lending - specifically bank lending to the masses.

No, it has to balance in accounting. A = L + E
We increase our asset by increasing our liability. A bond is a liability to the government but an asset to the bank and feds.
When we increase government debt(bonds), we increase the money supply which increase investments. That is what macroeconomics is. The banks however, is not lending to businesses like they should and causing a problem.

quote:
I'm guessing the Fed's goal is to disguise all the money that could potentially go into the money supply for the masses, and use it to shore up the banks (this part was already obvious) but I don't think anyone really realizes the house of cards that was actually built and how fragile a position we're all in.

The fed's only goal is to control inflation and unemployment. That's the point of their existence. They do this by buying more or less bonds. The theory is buying bonds puts more money into the economy and stimulate businesses which lower unemployment. Selling more bonds means increasing the interest rates which make bonds attractive and people/banks/businesses will buy bonds. That puts money back into the feds and out of the economy. This will lower inflation.

This bubble is complicated because the banks are making it hard for the feds to have control over the money supply. The other problem is Bernanke is so damn transparent.


RE: What the hell?
By rubbahbandman on 6/25/2013 3:15:44 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
We're not lending the money out to wall street. The feds are buying bonds from the the banks and thus increasing the money supply in the system. That is how money is created, whenever the the US treasury sell another bond. The feds cannot buy the bonds directly from the government so they buy from banks or you.

I get that, I wrote "main street" (AKA average joes). My point was in reference to the last paragraph of your original post that the increased money supply did not go back to businesses and people that need capital. I was basically making the assumption that we can't give the money back to "the people" because that is going to drive inflation since you're effectively opening the floodgates to the money supply to regular joes and it can't be controlled (right now a lot of it is hidden away in the stock market, US treasuries, bonds as far as I understand). Effectively, a controlled environment.

You understand a lot more about economics than I do, but let's say the banks started lending out the money they are getting to people and businesses. I know for a fact that banks have small reserve ratios. If they get a million dollars from the government, they could hypothetically lend out 30 million dollars (money multiplier effect). Even if bank lending were far more conservative I still think it would be risky to allow much lending and we're already seeing it play out this way.

The fed would absolutely fail to control inflation if that happened (at least in a way that the money supply would go to people and businesses). I don't like the banks, but I think they have to restrict lending for a while even though it causes other problems.

I believe the fed, government, and banks' plan is to restrict the money supply until we're in a stabilized environment and then buy back the bonds primarily through the banks and cut the people and businesses out of the equation because they can't be trusted. (Note: I don't trust banks, but I think this is what's going to happen). When you look at it this way too, I think it is probably the best approach as well. Apologies if I'm completely misunderstanding the point here.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/26/2013 9:27:50 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
I was basically making the assumption that we can't give the money back to "the people" because that is going to drive inflation since you're effectively opening the floodgates to the money supply to regular joes and it can't be controlled (right now a lot of it is hidden away in the stock market, US treasuries, bonds as far as I understand). Effectively, a controlled environment.

But it won't drive inflation for our current situation. Unemployment is high and people don't make enough money. Money given to the poor(welfare, SS, unemployment) is spent immediately because they don't have money. Even the middle class guy collecting unemployment between jobs will use his unemployment check before his savings or sell his stock/bonds. The rich definitely don't get any of these payments.

quote:
I know for a fact that banks have small reserve ratios.

5% reserve ratio current requirement.

quote:
If they get a million dollars from the government, they could hypothetically lend out 30 million dollars (money multiplier effect). Even if bank lending were far more conservative I still think it would be risky to allow much lending and we're already seeing it play out this way.

We are allowing banks to lend out money but the banks are not doing it that way. I think they're more worried about their credit rating and investment banker's greed more than anything.
I think you should look at what really happened to cause the banking crash. The investment bankers(loan officers) gave out loans(sub prime) that they know people cannot pay for. They lumped those bad loans in a package with good loans and marked the entire package with a AAA credit rating. The loan officers operate on commission so it was their incentives to get as many loans out as they can. The banks themselves are not worried because they already bought insurance for the loans so when it defaults, they don't lose any money. When loans starts defaulting and people looked closer they found out there were lies in the paperwork. When the insurance companies do not cover the loans, it hits the banks' equity. When your reserve ratio is only 5%, most of your asset is liability.
For example: A = L + E you have 10 loans for $10 each with a reserve ratio of 10%

$100(A) = 90(L) + 10(E)
when one of your loan defaults you lose $10 in asset but you also lose $10 in equity because you leveraged your money.
$90 = 90 + 0
When equity is 0 then you are no longer a bank.

This is what happened to a ton of banks. What the feds did to save the bank is they bought off all those subprime loans that are worthless so they banks don't have to write it off. That saved the banks. Banks that didn't get the same favor, went out of business like the Lehman brothers.

If you don't believe me, look at the federal reserve balance sheet. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current...

where it says "Mortgage-backed securities (4) " is where all those worthless subprime crap is. It says $1.2tril but it's worth nothing. It's all an accounting trick and it will stay there for a long long time.

On top of tougher regulations and the FDIC being part of the feds now, banks have to figure out a way to find good bankers. I don't think there's any bankers that's not greedy. That's like saying there's an honest politician. It's a complicated problem because the banks themselves are greedy but doesn't want any liability.

quote:
The fed would absolutely fail to control inflation if that happened (at least in a way that the money supply would go to people and businesses). I don't like the banks, but I think they have to restrict lending for a while even though it causes other problems.

It's not just the feds that can control inflation, the government can too. Raising taxes and/or lowering government spending will decrease inflation. The feds can easily control inflation by raising interest rates and selling more bonds. Increasing bonds rates will immediately decrease money supply. Our current problem is still unemployment but we have a bubble in the stock market which will cause inflation if not controlled. That's hard to control when you have 2 conflicting problems and the banks don't play along.

quote:
I believe the fed, government, and banks' plan is to restrict the money supply until we're in a stabilized environment and then buy back the bonds primarily through the banks and cut the people and businesses out of the equation because they can't be trusted.

What is currently happening and has been for the past years is the feds dumping money into the economy. They did not restrict money supply at all. They called it Quantitative Easing where they buy more bonds than they sell to dump money into the economy. That's why news of the QE slowing down in the near future rocked the stock market and cause it to crash just this past week. The plan to slow down QE is not considered until 2014.
Inflation has been rock solid at under 3% the entire time. It's not a problem. It will only be a problem if we let the stock market bubble.

quote:
When you look at it this way too, I think it is probably the best approach as well.

it's not the best approach because you don't want to restrict money supply when you have an unemployment problem. You will just cause more unemployment. If unemployment went down, it will only be because people gave up trying to find jobs. That is why the feds will continue QE until unemployment reach 6%.


RE: What the hell?
By Skywalker123 on 6/25/2013 11:40:04 AM , Rating: 2

quote:
Just so you know, anything involving the Feds will cause a global change. Our currency is the universal currency.


The world is moving away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, China, Brazil, India, and South Africa intend to conduct trade among themselves in their own currencies without use of the dollar as reserve currency. Others will doubtless follow suit.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 12:34:54 PM , Rating: 2
You're talking about national currency. The US currency is considered the universal currency not because of any of those reasons. It is the most stable currency throughout history. We have the highest credit rating of any country and our US treasury bonds have never missed a single payment or even late for the past 250+ years. It is also used as the standard of currency exchange throughout the world.


RE: What the hell?
By Dorkyman on 6/25/2013 2:02:48 PM , Rating: 2
You are aware, aren't you, that the situation is rapidly changing.

You're talking about the America that was.


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/25/2013 2:16:41 PM , Rating: 3
It can but not any time soon. Only the US currency meets the requirements of

1. Global dominance 15+trillion GDP
2. Stable - most stable currency in history
3. Involves in every single market and country in the world.

The euro could work but it's relatively unstable compared to the dollar.


RE: What the hell?
By Skywalker123 on 6/25/2013 5:02:26 PM , Rating: 2
your missing the point, it is losing dominance, the countries listed no longer trade with each other in dollars


RE: What the hell?
By BRB29 on 6/27/2013 9:14:36 AM , Rating: 2
Please show me where the dollar is losing its dominance. If you say its value went down then you're high. We've been trying to depreciate our dollar for some time now. Controlled inflation is how you win the game in the global market.

The dollar is actually gaining grounds in China. You wouldn't understand this without actually studying advanced macroeconomics.


RE: What the hell?
By Reclaimer77 on 6/25/2013 4:17:39 PM , Rating: 1
Oh shut up, nice try with the spin-job on the facts lol.


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