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Apple CEO Steve P. Jobs holding the elusive white iPhone 4  (Source: The Star)
Company continues to put analyst estimates to shame

Another quarter has rolled around, so did a bullish Apple embarrass the Wall Street analysts yet again?  Such an event has seemingly been a quarterly tradition by now.  But this quarter's earnings reports, while sticking true to tradition in revenue and several other areas, actually fell short of analyst's typically overly conservative expectations in two areas. 

This quarter's earnings will likely be over-scrutinized in the face of much bigger questions facing the trendy gadget maker.  While there'd been a bit of optimism surround the upcoming iPad 2 and availability of a CDMA (3G) iPhone on Verizon, most Apple-related financial chatter over the past two days had centered around the company's CEO, co-founder, and creative guiding hand, Steven P. Jobs taking a medical leave of absence (the CEO has battled cancer over the last decade and is recovering currently from a liver transplant).

A strong earnings report wouldn't completely silence concerns about a possible future Apple leadership crisis, but it might offer a decent distraction.

Apple's official accounting of calendar Q4 2010 earnings trickled in at around 4:30 p.m. on January 18.

Revenue was $26.74B USD, a new record, grossly surpassing the consensus expectation of $24.4B USD and the "high" expectation of $25.5B USD.  Earnings per share (EPS) similarly whipped expectations to the tune of $6.43 USD, versus a consensus estimate of $5.38, and a "high" estimate of $6.02.

IPhone and iPad shipments beat expectations, recording 16.24 million and 7.33 million, respectively, units shipped, versus respective expectations of 15.5 million and 6.2 million.  

If there was one trouble spot in the earnings report, it was the shipments of Mac computers and iPods, which fell short of expectations.  Apple only shipped 4.1 million Macs vs. a consensus of 4.3 million, and only shipped 19.45 million iPods vs. a consensus expectation of 20.3 million.  

The iPod shortfall is perhaps expected -- sales of the portable music player have slumped as tablets and smartphones have boomed, filling many of the niches once filled by the portable music player.  The lower than expected Mac shipments are a bit more troublesome and a sign perhaps that Apple is slowing in its quest to gain ground on industry leaders Dell and HP.  The Mac shipments, while lower than expected, represented a 23 percent increase from shipments a year ago.  The iPod shipments, on the other hand, represented a 7 percent drop.

Despite the couple of weak metrics, the record revenue, strong iPad/iPhone sales, and higher than expected revenue/EPS guidance for Q1 2011 all culminated to a generally positive reception of the report.  While it is early to fully characterize the net impact, Apple stock in resumed after hours trading has swung upwards $7.23 USD/share, a 2.12 percent gain that almost erases a 2.25 percent Tuesday drop, which was driven by the aforementioned leadership concerns.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs, put in a good word, enthusing, "We had a phenomenal holiday quarter with record Mac, iPhone and iPad sales. We are firing on all cylinders and we’ve got some exciting things in the pipeline for this year including iPhone 4 on Verizon which customers can’t wait to get their hands on."

Note: We originally overstated the revenue as $27B USD.  It is actually slightly lower ($26.74B USD).  Some have questioned the analyst consensus surrounding Macs.  We have consulted several different publications, and the figure 4.3 million is consistent across them and appears correct.  Apple also fell short of its own Mac sales predictions.





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Convenient
By wired00 on 1/18/2011 5:37:34 PM , Rating: 2
Seems amusing that he announces sick "leave" on a day of closed share market, then when its back Apple releases massive profits and news of "exciting things in the pipeline" :) I guess thats how the world works these days




RE: Convenient
By pxavierperez on 1/18/11, Rating: 0
RE: Convenient
By wired00 on 1/18/2011 6:11:00 PM , Rating: 2
i was making a joke, relax guy


RE: Convenient
By CloudFire on 1/18/2011 11:37:00 PM , Rating: 1
i ain't your guy, buddy!


RE: Convenient
By wordsworm on 1/19/2011 7:32:20 AM , Rating: 2
I ain't your guy, friend!


RE: Convenient
By Sunrise089 on 1/19/2011 8:12:14 AM , Rating: 2
I ain't your friend, pal!


RE: Convenient
By Azethoth on 1/19/2011 8:26:45 AM , Rating: 2
He's not your pal, guy.


RE: Convenient
By Aloonatic on 1/19/2011 8:34:48 AM , Rating: 5
All of you, Jesus is your only true friend.


RE: Convenient
By callmeroy on 1/19/2011 11:01:08 AM , Rating: 2
Well that's the ethical thing to do if you are "the boss" of a major company with shareholders. The improper thing would be for Steve to have waited until AFTER the earnings report and THEN announce "oh and I'm going on medical leave now"....in fact an action like that could bring lawsuits.


Tony btw Where do I buy...
By semiconshawn on 1/19/2011 5:39:30 PM , Rating: 2
My equivelent apple product to my pc. It has to have a hexacore chip 8gigs of ddr3 2000 crossfired 6870's and a 120g sandforce controlled ssd boot program drive and a 3gig raid array. Needs to be able to seemlessly integrate with my 2xbox360's so I can wirelessly stream all audio and hd video content stored on pc to both HD tv's. Has to be able to run my companies vpn client as well. Im waiting......




RE: Tony btw Where do I buy...
By Tony Swash on 1/20/2011 4:52:14 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
My equivelent apple product to my pc. It has to have a hexacore chip 8gigs of ddr3 2000 crossfired 6870's and a 120g sandforce controlled ssd boot program drive and a 3gig raid array. Needs to be able to seemlessly integrate with my 2xbox360's so I can wirelessly stream all audio and hd video content stored on pc to both HD tv's. Has to be able to run my companies vpn client as well. Im waiting......


Sorry - Apple can't cater to every minority market segment - yet :)

In the meantime why don't you get an iPad like everyone else ;)


breaking news!!!
By DeepBlue1975 on 1/20/2011 7:09:41 AM , Rating: 2
Each day, the world has a growing number of idiots.

On other news... Apple's sales seem to be increasing steadily over time.




Where's the Flash?
By BigDDesign on 1/24/2011 12:23:07 AM , Rating: 2
I like the I-Pad. But there's no Flash. I-Phone is also without Flash. I have 2 smartphones with it (Nexus One & HD2), and I find it very useful with browsing the web. On my Android, I have Dolphin Browser. I have to select the Flash if I want to see it. That allows web pages to load faster, and if I'm not interested in loading the Flash.. I don't have to.

Apple has the "Air". But it will cost me $2,300 to do what my smartphones do already. I remember when my Nexus One didn't have Flash & my HD2 did. Now that it does, I just love the experience. Having no Flash is like taking a bone away from a dog when it is sitting there up on the counter. Even the shopping websites benefit from Flash.

On another note.... All new Android tablets are widescreen. Maybe the companies should take a look at Apple and see that widescreen is not the end all to tablet design. 10" tablets please too. Please hit me in the head with a hammer if any of my rants are just gas.




Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Flunk on 1/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By wired00 on 1/18/2011 11:47:17 PM , Rating: 2
why would they axe osx? Unless i missed something it said they sold 23% more than previous year, even if it was under expectations. i think its a great OS (i use osx on my MBP and Win7 at home) Surely steve has barely any involvement in it anymore anyway. From watching their Lion keynote their tech guys on the osx side of things seem right on the ball (i can't stand watching Steve on stage though he's as boring as bat sh1t)


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Da W on 1/19/2011 10:18:10 AM , Rating: 3
They should free OSX from their hardware and sell it as a standalone OS to compete on Windows' turf.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Wulf145 on 1/20/2011 7:13:55 AM , Rating: 2
It would be a bad idea for Apple since they would then run into the same Problems with Drivers & Support which MS has.

Right now Apple needs to support approx. 20 different (don't know the aktual amount of how many different Apple Configs there are) HW c onfigurations, if they sold OSX seperatly they would have to deal with millions of configurations. Apple would loose the "It just Works" image very quickly.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By tim851 on 1/19/2011 12:19:12 AM , Rating: 2
Boy, you are a smart one, aren't you?

Next you'll advise Mercedes to drop the S-Class, seeing as it's outsold by the other lines...


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By melgross on 1/19/2011 1:14:15 AM , Rating: 4
Well, the article got a few things wrong. First, revenue was $27.74 billion, not $27 billion. Second was that Mac sales were very good, a new record. Consenus sales numbers weren't 4.3 million, but 4 million. The high estimate by one person was 4.3 million, and the low was below 4 million.

We know you just want to make it seem as though Apple’s Mac sales were poor, but they were pretty hot. While they rose 23% over last years quarter, PC sales were only up 3% worldwide, and down 6.6% in the US. Apple also makes a good profit on those sales. They don't need to give them away as do PC makers.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Shadowself on 1/19/2011 7:53:40 AM , Rating: 3
What? Jason Mick slanting an article and cherry picking obscure pieces of information to make it seem as though Apple has problems and/or is falling apart? Say it isn't so!

</sarcasm>


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By omnicronx on 1/19/2011 10:01:27 AM , Rating: 1
You mean, hes reporting on an earnings call in which Apple missed expectations on two of their lines? While at the same time doing exactly the opposite of what you are saying and reporting massive earnings?

What a liar!


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By omnicronx on 1/19/2011 9:59:51 AM , Rating: 2
First off, revenue was 26.74 Billion (or ~27B), second of all, Apple missed their Mac sales projections. This is an earnings call, they missed what they were projected, and thats a bad thing. (regardless of what they've done y/y)

Now of course their growth is still quite good which is a good thing, but their stock value will most likely take some kind of hit from this.. which of course will be completely countered overachieving in other divisions..

So nothing here is really wrong, it just all depends how you look at it..


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By omnicronx on 1/19/2011 10:10:15 AM , Rating: 2
FYI the consensus was 4.3 million, not 4. Its been reported many times that this was the figure most people agreed with before the earning call. They certainly missed it, and the wall street is going to notice.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Tony Swash on 1/19/2011 11:33:58 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
FYI the consensus was 4.3 million, not 4. Its been reported many times that this was the figure most people agreed with before the earning call. They certainly missed it, and the wall street is going to notice.


Apple sold more Macs than in any similar period in it's 25 year history of selling Macs.

Mac sales grew by 23% over a year ago.

Mac sales growth out grew the PC market growth by a significant amount.

What some third parties guessed might be the figure is utterly irrelevant. These are the same clowns that said iPad sales wouldn't top 3 million in 2010. That the iPhone would flop. That the iPod would flop. I could make a guess that Android phone sales will increase by 500% in the next quarter and then claim any actual figure short of that is a disappointment. Such comments are worthless. It's actual results that count.

All this nonsense on this forum is just about one thing, people trying desperately - desperately - to find some way to talk down Apple's results. That's because Apple's success scares. It scares them because they don't understand it, they don't how it's been achieved and they don't understand why so many people seem to really, really like Apple products.

Something is happening and they don't know what it is.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By omnicronx on 1/19/11, Rating: 0
By Tony Swash on 1/19/2011 11:51:56 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
That said, the fact that you are calling the guys down at Wall Street utterly irrelevant just shows that you don't know what you are talking about. Apples stock was valued based on those expectations, and it will most likely have a negative impact, just as the same people undervalued their total revenues which will most likely have a positive impact.


Apple stock is up today. Two days after Steve Jobs announced health issues.

Moments after posting, and just before seeing you comment, I came across this piece at http://www.asymco.com/ which says everything you need to know about professional forecasts.

quote:
Professional analysts’ first year iPad unit forecasts in millions (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1
Here are the predictions from Tech Bloggers:

Clayton Morris: 9
John Gruber: 8
Horace Dediu: 6
Natali Del Conte: 5
Ross Rubin: 5
Mike Rose: 4.5-5
Jason Snell: 3
Andy Ihnatko: 3

Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.

I sometimes use the phrase “unforeseeable growth” to describe the kind of growth that not even the most knowledgeable observers of a market can predict. It’s usually an indicator that fundamentally transformational change is taking place.

It’s not a sufficient condition, but it’s clear that “nobody saw it coming” is a common refrain when disruptions are seen in the rear-view mirror.

If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser. This collective shrug amounts to the greatest competitive advantage any entrant could ever hope to obtain.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Pirks on 1/19/2011 11:47:21 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
people trying desperately - desperately - to find some way to talk down Apple's fanatics
fixed
quote:
so many people seem to really, really like Apple products
jeeebuuusss!!! we gonna diiee!!! the whole TWO percent of the world's computer users use Apple computers, this is SOOO MANYYY! how CAN WE SURVIVE NOWWW!! oh horrorrr :))))


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Da W on 1/19/2011 10:30:57 AM , Rating: 1
So far stock ain't doing shit since yesterday's close.
The stock is overhyped by the market. This is a good company, but the stock isn't cheap. The market is expecting "magical" growth numbers, the end of the PC era and everybody and their grandmother will have an iPad, iPhone and ipod nano watch by year end.

I reiterate my overhyped rating on apple.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By callmeroy on 1/19/2011 10:57:21 AM , Rating: 2
LMAO...you definitely get the OCD of the week award...

You must be a fun one when its time to leave a tip huh?
(you know leaving EXACTLY 20% even if its like $4.28 or some other odd figure)


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By PrinceGaz on 1/19/2011 12:42:44 PM , Rating: 2
I thought the main reason for keeping Macs and OS X was as an iOS software development platform. Everything else can be done on a Windows PC.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Tony Swash on 1/19/2011 1:48:34 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
I thought the main reason for keeping Macs and OS X was as an iOS software development platform. Everything else can be done on a Windows PC.


Apparently that's not what four million people thought in the last three months. Expect Mac sales to continue to grow. Between the Mac and the iPad the slow haemorrhage of Microsoft is well underway. The main blood loss is with the OEMs who are all jumping ship. It's like watching a great beast slowly die.


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By Pirks on 1/19/2011 2:04:25 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Between the Mac and the iPad the slow haemorrhage of Microsoft is well underway
MS won't survive, they lost like 5% of a computer market!!! MS is doomed now!!! :)))


RE: Beginning of the End for Mac?
By PrezWeezy on 1/19/2011 5:07:02 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The main blood loss is with the OEMs who are all jumping ship.


I'm sorry, which OEM's are you speaking of that are selling OSX instead of Microsoft?


Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: Nice
By lifewatcher on 1/18/11, Rating: 0
RE: Nice
By Pirks on 1/18/2011 6:12:10 PM , Rating: 2
Nice

Macs are still a tiny tiny tiny portion of a personal computer market

Nice


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/18/11, Rating: -1
RE: Nice
By semiconshawn on 1/18/2011 9:25:58 PM , Rating: 3
Apple dies with Steve Jobs. I know you know it and so does the Market. They will lose content partners there will be power struggles infighting and slower product cycles. That man runs apple. You just dont replace that with next guy in line. Worship your false god Tony he is about to fall and bring the church down with him.


RE: Nice
By nuarbnellaffej on 1/18/2011 9:35:17 PM , Rating: 1
Dude you're pretty fucked up..


RE: Nice
By dark matter on 1/19/11, Rating: 0
RE: Nice
By semiconshawn on 1/19/2011 4:45:02 PM , Rating: 3
Please point out the non Capitalist enconomies that are inovating new products and moving tech forward.


RE: Nice
By Aloonatic on 1/19/2011 7:51:44 AM , Rating: 2
I think that you might be exagerating slightly. His departure, however it happens, would not be good for the company, of course, however...

.. regardless of what goes on with Macs, in their iProduct line up, they have a pretty good business going that doesn't really need Steve at the helm. I know that people here like to think that everyone who bought an iPod/iPhone/iPad were all brainwashed when they heard Steve's keynote speech and rushed out and bought one of his devices purely because they love his black turtle-neck and blue jeans style, and that he designed and manufactured the prototypes in his garage all by himself, but that's not how it happened.

He's influential and would be missed, but not pre iProduct influential.


RE: Nice
By Shadowself on 1/19/2011 7:51:24 AM , Rating: 1
First, Jobs has never invented *anything*. He has never been the "innovator" at Apple or anywhere else he's been. Every idea for something new and interesting at Apple has been brought to him by others. Jobs' stregth -- and it *is* better than almost anyone else in the field -- is to be able to pick from a bunch of new ideas the few that people will want to buy.

Second, Jobs has been gone twice since his return in the 90s. Apple didn't fall apart either time.

Will Apple be the same without Jobs? No.

However, it might actually be better! Jobs believes down in his very DNA in high margins. The margins are higher than are necessary to keep fueling the research and development to keep the pipeline full of new, and in many cases innovative, products. Who's to say that the next guy (no pun intended) will not lower the margins just a bit to expand the market share AND still fuel the R&D budget too?


RE: Nice
By PrezWeezy on 1/19/2011 5:22:11 PM , Rating: 3
High profit margins give the impression of high quality, rightly or not. But that is what gives Mac's the idea that they are better, the idea that their quality is much higher. You can argue if that is true all you want, but that's why they are thought of the way they are. Also, it is a status thing. Just like owning a Benz. Whether it is true or not doesn't matter, what matters is that if they drop the price, they lose the image, and Apple is built on image.


RE: Nice
By Aenslead on 1/19/2011 11:31:28 AM , Rating: 2
That's why Jobs is getting cloned, so Apple becomes eternal, too.


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/19/2011 11:43:32 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
Apple dies with Steve Jobs. I know you know it and so does the Market.


It seems you are wrong.

Apple shares rose today.

I think we may have just passed an inflection point.

A post Steve Jobs Apple is now a prospect that does not inspire fear or anxiety. During his previous leaves of absence Apple continued to fire on all cylinders. The company has been re-made so well that it no longer need Steve Jobs. I think he will be glad about that.

I very much hope Jobs overcomes his health problems, just like I would hope anybody else would. I also hope that he returns to Apple because I think he has lots left to do and achieve. But whether he does or doesn't return is no longer a make or break deal. Apple is too big, too strong, too powerful and too well run for one man to matter anymore. As I said an inflection point.


RE: Nice
By semiconshawn on 1/19/2011 4:17:51 PM , Rating: 1
Im wrong? Steve Jobs died. Im sorry. Oh wait no im not wrong. Your an idiot.


RE: Nice
By Alexstarfire on 1/19/2011 12:43:32 AM , Rating: 2
IDK if you can really say that just about PCs. Apple certainly makes the most profit when comparing to HP, Dell, Gateway, etc. but Apple is selling both the hardware and the OS at the same time. If you took Microsoft's profit from selling Windows I think we'd have a much better view. IDK how it'd look though. Apple might still come out ahead for all I know.


RE: Nice
By KoolAidMan1 on 1/19/2011 1:58:00 AM , Rating: 2
It is simple. Microsoft is in the software business. Their net profit margins are higher than Apple's because selling Windows, Office, and backend business software carries profit margins higher than any piece of hardware can hope to achieve. Software that is sold in such massive quantities generates enough excess cash to fund Microsoft's numerous loss leaders and experiments in the consumer space.

This is why Apple, despite having higher gross revenue than Microsoft, makes lower net revenue. A phone or laptop or tablet can't possibly make as much percentage per unit sold as a piece of software. It seems inevitable that this will change as there doesn't seem to be any end in the near term to Apple's growth. They double gross revenue on an annual basis while maintaining good (for hardware) profit margins. If Foxconn's iPad sales estimates are accurate (100 million sold by 2013) they should quickly have the highest net revenue in the tech sector as well as the highest gross.


RE: Nice
By Alexstarfire on 1/19/2011 3:14:28 AM , Rating: 2
I'm not exactly sure what your counter-argument is, if there even is one. Surely you can see that since Apple designs the hardware and makes the software that comparing them to HP, Dell, Gateway, etc. just doesn't make sense since they are only hardware companies. The only logical conclusion would be to include Windows OS sales in there as well. It's not like this information would change anything, it would just provide a clearer picture of Windows/PC vs Mac OS/Apple.


RE: Nice
By Azethoth on 1/19/2011 8:25:17 AM , Rating: 2
You do not understand. This has nothing to do with Microsoft or OS sales. Apple sells at premium prices compared to the other hardware manufacturers. They have cherry picked the high end and left the zero-profit low end to the others to bleed over. I do not recall the exact figures but last year some analyst estimated that despite their low overall share of the total shipments pie (10%?), their share of the revenue pie was crazy high, as in 50% or 70% or something.


RE: Nice
By Alexstarfire on 1/19/2011 5:06:31 PM , Rating: 2
I think it's you who doesn't understand because that's not the way I see it. I suppose it probably does make more sense to look at it this way though, since Apple doesn't sell the OS by itself. It really doesn't matter either way. I just thought it'd be interesting information to look at. HP obviously cares about its profit more than the combined PC v Apple/UNIX/etc.


RE: Nice
By KoolAidMan1 on 1/19/2011 8:09:47 PM , Rating: 2
Apple doesn't sell operating systems, they sell hardware bundled with operating systems. Their profit margins are dictated by the fact that they sell hardware, which by nature carry far lower profit margins than software, which happens to comprise almost all of Microsoft's profits.

The only companies you can compare Apple to are other hardware companies Dell, HP, Gateway, Sony, etc etc.


RE: Nice
By Pirks on 1/19/2011 10:23:00 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
What would rather do, dominate yesterday's business model or tomorrows? Sell into shrinking markets or growing markets?
My thin and light 14" Asus notebook that works up to 14 hours on a single charge is fueling tomorrow's mobile business model, and the market for such mobile PCs as my Asus grows pretty fast, judging by how many similar thin/light/battery sipping PCs Asus has flooded the market with recently. So yeah Tony, I'm staying with my Asus PC from the future, thank you for your kind words about my PC :P
quote:
Cling onto the past. It's all you have.
I also have cheaper and better than Mac 12"-14" ultraportables from Asus and others, which you Macheads will never get, just stop envying us will ya? :)))


RE: Nice
By BruceLeet on 1/18/2011 10:14:00 PM , Rating: 2
Well I know what your new year resolution was; change fanboy jersey's.

Last year you were quick to praise and worship apple articles, now this ))


RE: Nice
By themaster08 on 1/19/2011 2:19:49 AM , Rating: 2
I think it's because even Pirks can see the irrational, blind fanboy idiocy that is Tony Swash.


RE: Nice
By dark matter on 1/19/2011 2:39:33 AM , Rating: 2
Because Pirks is Tony Swash you mean!

Don't be fooled.


RE: Nice
By The Raven on 1/18/2011 6:21:32 PM , Rating: 1
Hi Tony. (Yes I expanded your comment to get your opinion)
That is a lot of facts. I guess that is exciting if you need to get/use Apple products in those various countries. So I guess that is good news for you.

What I noticed is this...
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=...
Since the recession began, MS has gone nowhere, where as APPL has skyrocketed to nearly 2x their pre-recession price. I hate MS equally as much as Apple but since MS still has a majority of the marketshare, I like to see this.


RE: Nice
By eskimospy on 1/18/11, Rating: 0
RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/19/11, Rating: 0
RE: Nice
By jamesjwb on 1/19/2011 6:45:49 AM , Rating: 2
12


RE: Nice
By Skywalker123 on 1/19/11, Rating: 0
RE: Nice
By eskimospy on 1/20/2011 12:21:16 PM , Rating: 2
Wait, so you're not even doing this while screwing off at work, or otherwise involuntarily unemployed with nothing better to do? Like, you are retired and could do anything you want with your life... and you choose to spend countless hours fighting with internet nerds over how great Apple is?

That's so much more pathetic than I could even have imagined. Seriously, you are depressing me.


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/20/2011 1:19:37 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Wait, so you're not even doing this while screwing off at work, or otherwise involuntarily unemployed with nothing better to do? Like, you are retired and could do anything you want with your life... and you choose to spend countless hours fighting with internet nerds over how great Apple is?

That's so much more pathetic than I could even have imagined. Seriously, you are depressing me.


Relax. I am fine.

Posting here takes hardly any time and the rest of my life is full - too full at times to be honest - how did I ever find the time to work for a living?. I even managed to post here whilst spending seven weeks last summer driving around the National Parks of of the American west (seriously beautiful country). I used to churn out reports and project briefs and memos by the hundreds. Now I write about what I want to when I want to. The stuff here is tiny proportion of that. If you really want to engage get me going on the subject of climate change alarmism - I got so worked up about that that I set up my own web site to publish stuff on, it's here if you remotely interested:

http://a-sceptical-mind.com/

and then there is my photography obsession.........

A little bit of combative discourse is good for the soul ;)


RE: Nice
By eskimospy on 1/20/2011 5:49:16 PM , Rating: 2
That you're a climate change denier explains a lot. You seem to be attracted to faith based movements. :)

Seriously though, if you're churning out this much crap here and then hosting a whole new site to churn out even more inane crap, you're wasting an awful lot of your life. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Do us both a favor and spend less time regurgitating Apple press releases, more time out in the real world.


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/20/2011 5:56:57 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
That you're a climate change denier explains a lot. You seem to be attracted to faith based movements. :)


I think those that accept the theory of catastrophic AGW are the ones who are faith based. I had no opinions on the matter but decided to investigate out of curiosity. The evidence I found led me to be sceptical about the AGW hypothesis. I decided to put some of that evidence on my web site. As it says on the web site - if the evidence changes I will change my mind. If you think I have come to the wrong conclusion feel free to tell what bits of the evidence I have found that I have misunderstood or what what evidence I have missed. Using words like "denier" is way to avoid rational discourse. Its better to be rational.


RE: Nice
By eskimospy on 1/20/2011 11:41:57 PM , Rating: 2
It certainly is better to be rational. Physician, heal thyself.


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/21/2011 7:32:01 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
It certainly is better to be rational. Physician, heal thyself.


So no comments about the actual evidence. Telling.


RE: Nice
By Pirks on 1/21/2011 10:26:02 AM , Rating: 1
Yeah pwn them well Tony, hurt those nasty AGW trolls like eskimospy. Those idiots are so annoying. I'm glad you're on the masher's side when it came to serious business (too bad you don't know who masher is but local old timers will get it)

And also you might want to answer my post here in the process: http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=20684...

Wanna know your opinion about it, thanks


RE: Nice
By eskimospy on 1/21/2011 12:34:15 PM , Rating: 2
Uhmm, the whole reason why I wouldn't discuss the evidence with you is contained in my prior post, in case you missed it. I don't believe you to be capable of rational assessment of evidence.


RE: Nice
By frobizzle on 1/19/2011 8:32:33 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
Record 851,000 Macs sold, up 24%. About half were to customers new to Mac.

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." H.L. Mencken


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/19/2011 9:07:03 AM , Rating: 1
quote:

quote:
Record 851,000 Macs sold, up 24%. About half were to customers new to Mac.

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." H.L. Mencken


Any explanation of a technological trend based on the notion that its fundamental cause is the mass stupidity of millions of people demonstrates a complete intellectual collapse.
quote:
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.... After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.
Richard Feynman:


RE: Nice
By Skywalker123 on 1/19/2011 9:58:57 AM , Rating: 1
"Any explanation of a technological trend based on the notion that its fundamental cause is the mass stupidity of millions of people demonstrates a complete intellectual collapse.

Suggest you read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".

Anyway you've been demonstrating it here for a long time.


RE: Nice
By semiconshawn on 1/19/2011 4:40:04 PM , Rating: 2
400,000 new customers in a year? That probably includes schools that are practically given the computers (yea learn on a Mac and then never see one again brilliant). I dont really see that as very impressive. Apple tv is a joke (funnier than google tv). Ipad and iphone are it for apple. Good products still growing no doubt. Mac market share is flat at best. They are now for the first time facing stiff phone competition and will face heavy tablet competiton this year. The honeymoon is over and now Jobs is sick again? Yeah things looking better than ever for Apple.


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/20/2011 5:03:48 AM , Rating: 1
quote:
400,000 new customers in a year? That probably includes schools that are practically given the computers (yea learn on a Mac and then never see one again brilliant). I dont really see that as very impressive. Apple tv is a joke (funnier than google tv). Ipad and iphone are it for apple. Good products still growing no doubt. Mac market share is flat at best. They are now for the first time facing stiff phone competition and will face heavy tablet competiton this year. The honeymoon is over and now Jobs is sick again? Yeah things looking better than ever for Apple.


Apple has the best quarter ever, beats all the market predictions, is now the most valuable tech company. There really is only one conclusion you can come to - Apple is doomed!

Sheesh

I hope you realise that everything you say is contradicted by the actual facts - perhaps you are just practicing some sort of super subtly irony.

On the Apple TV - I knew at once that it would be utterly misunderstood by techies, as many Apple products are. It's key feature (which is only just about to be extended to most third party apps) is AirPlay because it turns your TV into an extension of any iOS device with a simple tap of a button. I think this will turn out to be huge. Not least because of gaming. Rather bizarrely given it's history Apple is about to become the biggest force in gaming. iOS already has nearly three times more games than the previous twenty-five years of gaming devices combined!

The iOS has twice the number of games as the following platforms combined: NES+Master System+Genesis+SNES+PS1+Saturn+Xbox+PS2+Gamecube+Xb ox 360+PS3+Wii+XNA+XBLA+Gameboy+GBA+DS+PSP


RE: Nice
By Pirks on 1/20/2011 10:06:51 AM , Rating: 2
MS has the best quarter ever, with stuff like Xbox business growing record breaking 38% and outselling everyone in the US for more than four months, and is now producing the most widely used software in the world. There really is only one conclusion you can come to - MS is doomed!

Sheesh


RE: Nice
By Tony Swash on 1/20/2011 12:12:01 PM , Rating: 1
quote:

MS has the best quarter ever, with stuff like Xbox business growing record breaking 38% and outselling everyone in the US for more than four months, and is now producing the most widely used software in the world. There really is only one conclusion you can come to - MS is doomed!

Sheesh


I don't think Microsoft is doomed. Windows/Office is not going to disappear and MS also has a third smaller but profitable business in the servers/enterprise IT area. But MS has some problems, problems that are not impacting the bottom line a lot now but problems that are not going to go away. Problems to do with the secular trends in technology.

Microsoft's main problem is that the products which prop up the whole of it's business, products that supply the vast bulk of it's profit, are all 25 years old. Of course those products have been upgraded over the years and in fact the upgrade cycle has been an important part of the ability of MS to still milk so much income from them, but nevertheless we are talking old products. Products conceived when the world of computers and technology was vastly different. Compare this to Google (whose core technology revenue source is a little over ten years old) and even more so Apple whose majority revenues now come from products that are less than four years old.

These old MS products command high margins because they are monopolies. But no monopoly lasts for ever. Does anyone really think that in a decade the world of computing (business or consumer) will be dominated (either technologically or financially) by desktop PCs and laptops running Windows? I don't that is likely and I also think that MS doesn't think that is likely. Hence the huge efforts that MS has made to diversify over the least fifteen years. All have been failures. I don't mean all have been technology failures (although most have) I mean none have built a new pillar of revenue that matches the old Windows/Office revenues in either scale or profitability. Many have not made any profit and some can only make a small notional profit if you write off the absurd amounts of capital invested in their development (Xbox).

There are various reasons why Microsoft's efforts to diversify have been failures. A big part of the failure was due to MS's unwillingness to do anything that might undercut it's old products and it's old monopolies. Thus it's disastrous "Windows Everywhere" strategy. Compare and contrast with Apple's willingness to threaten it's own products with new products (iPod-V-iPhone, Mac-V-iPad). Another important reason that MS has failed to develop new business lines and products is because the new paradigm of computing, particularly the new mobile device arena, is dominated by consumer products and MS has almost no history of selling directly to consumers. It's core monopoly products were built up selling to the enterprise and to OEMs. MS doesn't really get the consumer (hence the Windows mobile debacle). Clearly MS is trying to learn as fast as it can, as the success of Kinect demonstrates but it has still not launched any hegemonic products into the consumer market which can generate income that can come even remotely close to matching the old products.

So MS continues sucking in the old monopoly incomes - for now. But if you were CEO of Microsoft would you think it was a safe strategy to sit back and rely on that income coming in for the next decade - of the one after? And if that is not safe strategy then where will the big revenues come from tomorrow? With what new products is MS going to dominate tomorrow?

So I don't think Microsoft is doomed but I do think it will get smaller in relation to the tech market over the coming years. That it will be less important. That it will retreat more and more into being a business orientated company and get out of the consumer market. That's it's most sensible option and one I expect the CE who replaces Ballmer to follow, in about two years after he is forced out when the current scramble to best Google and Apple ends in failure

Just before he returned to Apple in February 1996 Steve Jobs said this

"If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."?

Looks like he stuck to his word.


RE: Nice
By Pirks on 1/20/2011 3:20:26 PM , Rating: 1
quote:
Microsoft's main problem is that the products which prop up the whole of it's business, products that supply the vast bulk of it's profit, are all 25 years old
Not a problem actually as MS is slowly but steadily replacing them with new modern tech. Ancient Win32/Win64 is getting replaced by much more modern .Net, ancient Flash is getting a serious much more modern competitor for the Web domain in the form of Silverlight, decades old legacy GDI user interface is getting replaced by ultramodern WPF, ancient WinMo 6.x is retired and is replaced by modern OS called WP7, old PC gaming is augmented by mass consumer-friendly Xbox 360 which has just shown phenomenal sales growth of 38% last quarter and is outselling EVERY competitor in the US during the last four months, and so on and so forth. Only blind Apple worshipping people like you don't see this _obvious_ thing - MS is NOT standing still, _NOT AT ALL_. They DO get rid of old 25 year old tech ALL THE TIME, they just do it slower than Apple because of their insane market share. They can't just drop old x86 and jump onto Arm for example. The quick way Jobs forced it down the Apple users' throats with PPC->x86 transition is not gonna work for MS and you know it. Looks like you are whining about something you don't quite understand, at least it looks like this to me...
quote:
So I don't think Microsoft is doomed but I do think it will get smaller in relation to the tech market over the coming years
Absolutely the same could be reasonably argued about post-Jobs Apple which too is likely to see slowing growth and becoming just another stable company like today's MS, so you have no point here, it seems.

P.S. and if MS could not become the next Huge Online MegaHub like Google or next Big MegaConsumerElectronics Company like Apple, this means only that MS can't do EVERYTHING, they SPECIALIZE, so I really don't get what your whining is about then Tony? Are you saying MS lost because they could not turn into the search giant Google style? How about then if I tell you that actually Apple lost it 'cause they could not deliver anything big businesses will pay BIG bucks for, like Windows Server solutions or Windows HPC solutions or Office/Exchange/SharePoint or whatever else I see in businesses all around me in Canada (all MS, not a single iPad and just a few iPhones around that people do NOT use for business purposes)? Would you like me to dispense you your own medicine Tony? ;o)


RE: Nice
By themaster08 on 1/23/2011 4:36:40 AM , Rating: 2
quote:
The iOS has twice the number of games as the following platforms combined: NES+Master System+Genesis+SNES+PS1+Saturn+Xbox+PS2+Gamecube+Xb ox 360+PS3+Wii+XNA+XBLA+Gameboy+GBA+DS+PSP
Yet make a fraction of the profits as games on those platforms. Quantity != quality. I thought you would have learned that by now, Tony.


"I modded down, down, down, and the flames went higher." -- Sven Olsen













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