Print 40 comment(s) - last by Cheesew1z69.. on Jun 29 at 12:03 PM

  (Source: Business Development)
Trainwreck is expected to continue in coming quarters until company hits a fire sale; stock is at 9 yr. low

Research in Motion, Ltd. (TSE:RIM) has been circling the drain for some time now, between falling market share, the BlackBerry 10 platform that's taken nearly two and a half years to bring to market, and incompetent management.  Long profitable, the company posted its first operating loss in many years last quarter.

Now as RIM's earnings report nears, analysts are lining up to predict a bloodbath.

Wedge analyst Brian Blair is among the majority predicting a forced fire sale.  He opines to AllThingsD:

We see a steep drop off in revenues and units near term, punctuated by a drop in subscriber adds, and an OS refresh that is largely ignored by carriers and consumers alike, driving RIM into a forced sale in 2013.

This is going to be the third inning of RIM’s death spiral.

A year ago RIM earned $1.33 USD per share on revenue of $4.9B USD.  This quarter it's expected to circle down to a loss of $0.03 USD per share on revenue of $3.1B USD.

As bad as the numbers may look for June it's expected to get much worse for the second quarter, which will be reported in August.  Jefferies analyst Peter Misek told All Things Digital, "It’s going to be terrible with a scoop of worse for August."

Analyst predict more destruction for the Rimdenburg.
[Image Source: Jason Mick/DailyTech LLC]

With no real viable product on the smartphone market, RIM is expected to plummet further as it tries to peddle its defunct BlackBerry 7 operating system in the face of Samsung Electronics Comp., Ltd.'s (KSC:005930blockbuster Galaxy S III and Apple, Inc.'s (AAPL) upcoming sixth generation iPhone.

In other words, as bad as it is now, it's likely to get far worse for RIM soon.  Don't be surprised if RIM's hapless management retreats back into their Saturday morning cartoon fantasy land amid this grim dose of reality.

Source: All Things D

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I don't get it.
By Dean364 on 6/28/2012 2:45:51 PM , Rating: 5
A company has its first losing quarter and everyone starts chanting DEATH DEATH DEATH! Apple lost tons of money for years and look where they are now. I'm not saying RIM is going to pull off an Apple, but I certainly do not believe that they are 'circling' the drain.

BB10 will be out in a few months and all of the (remaining) Blackberry users will upgrade and RIM will continue to make a profit. I'm sure they'll even get some new users once it is released. Sure, they'll never have any significant market share, but they will carve out their own little niche in the smartphone market and fill a void that currently exists.

RE: I don't get it.
By Slaimus on 6/28/2012 3:49:59 PM , Rating: 2
Good point. AMD has had much worse financials for a long time, but they are still operating fine.

RE: I don't get it.
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/2012 4:08:10 PM , Rating: 2
And AMD has 1 real main competitor. RIM has MANY. Not even the same.

RE: I don't get it.
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 4:22:57 PM , Rating: 2
And Apple that was crumbling before had TONS of competitors. So this is THE same.

RE: I don't get it.
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 5:56:35 PM , Rating: 3
#1... Apple would have gone under, but MS bailed them out.
#2... Apple had expensive products that people wanted
#3... Rim is at 1/16 its previous stock value and has shareholders to pay. Angry shareholders that want some money back.

Not at all the same. RIM is already agressively looking for a buyer.

RE: I don't get it.
By bety on 6/28/2012 11:39:26 PM , Rating: 2

First, you're being very optimistic. I predicted over 2 years ago (yes, tooting my own horn) that RIM was going to die, and die faster than anybody predicted, now, I'm starting to wonder if they are even trying...I think they are aware that it's over at this point, and are trying too spin things as well as possible for suitors.

In any case, even if you're correct, it's very difficult to stay in the market, even in your own niche, against players like Apple and Google, if you've got a tiny market. With limited resources, you'll fall behind every month.

Moreover, if you don't think going from the Blackberry empire to no "significant market share" IS death, then you're operating with different definitions than most people.

By Flunk on 6/28/2012 2:31:23 PM , Rating: 1
They need to cut their losses and release a new Android-based OS with additions for all the blackberry services that corporations love. They get the best of both worlds, lots of apps and corporate appeal. It's even than building BB10 and it makes a whole lot more sense.

RE: Android
By drycrust3 on 6/28/2012 4:32:05 PM , Rating: 2
Totally agree. They could call it "Android-berry".

RE: Android
By Bateluer on 6/28/2012 9:19:06 PM , Rating: 2
They'd be better off just spinning off their BBM, BES, and other BB-specific apps to iOS and Android versions, with subscriptions or corporate licensing.

Their management has called Android and the Play Store a cesspool. :P

RE: Android
By Belard on 6/29/2012 9:44:15 AM , Rating: 2
If RIM wants to stay in the hardware biz... Android would be the only thing that CAN save them.

By MrBlastman on 6/28/2012 2:08:20 PM , Rating: 5
Needs to learn how to toss the salad properly because this is one rimjob that people don't seem to like.

Really bad news for RIM..
By DukeN on 6/28/2012 4:32:28 PM , Rating: 2
I'm a BB apologist, and I like their products for business but this is brutal news.

The stock price will take an absolute bloodbath after this news.

Forget the losses and all, but the delay of BB10 until after Christmas will kill this company.

Mr Helms - there's a difference between making a perfect product, and a profitable product. And right now you need to put out a profitable product, even if it's 90% mature.

RE: Really bad news for RIM..
By Pirks on 6/28/12, Rating: 0
RE: Really bad news for RIM..
By DukeN on 6/29/2012 10:29:06 AM , Rating: 2
Problem is, Thorstein is not Jobs.

And RIM isn't entering an era where there's a nascent, new industry forming waiting for them to dominate (like Apple).

Remember the Amiga!
By Belard on 6/29/2012 9:57:50 AM , Rating: 2
Simple as that...

Anyone who has lived through a dying platform KNOWS the feeling and what it looks like.

Amiga, a great platform in its hey-day. The company that owned/made it sat on their asses. they were arrogant, they were STUPID... they didn't have the STYLE of Mac or the biz savvy on how to sell their own tech.

It quickly became out-dated by 1994 and for sure once Windows95 came out (which was still a sub-standard OS). The value of Amiga tech, like any technology drops quickly... The value of RIM will be almost nothing by 2014.

RIM *MUST* do something today... HP proved that buying WebOS was a complete waste of money... yet WebOS was fine, it was elegant... worked very well (get the bugs out). But in the end, WebOS is pretty much dead. RIM's BB10 may never make it out the door.

The market can only handle 3 standards, at best. Before the days if iPhone and Android, there was only blackberry, Symbian (gag) and Windows Mobile (puke). Today, its Android, iPhone with WP7 struggling for 3rd place as a modern smart platform.

BB10 cannot compete against Microsoft... even when Windows8 fails.

If RIM wants to live through 2013, they need to decide - TODAY, to go Android. It will allow them to make their OWN launcher and install their own APPs. They can use their current hardware or whatever is in development. It would excite the market, maybe a little bit. The carriers and the user base would NOT worry about a BB-Android device becoming a dead-end platform. They could make Christmas.

I'm betting 100 to 1, RIM continues to talk about their vaporware OS into 2013, the major carriers do NOT sell any RIM devices after 2012. The market share plunges again after new-years. Maybe Samsung buys their a dozen of their patents for $500,000.

RE: Remember the Amiga!
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/29/2012 12:03:31 PM , Rating: 2
The value of RIM will be almost nothing by 2014.
It won't be around by 2014, so of course it will be nothing.

LOL - the RIMdenburg.
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 2:05:17 PM , Rating: 2
IT really sucks that they couldnt pull it together over the past few years. I keep picturing Lazardis and Balsilie with those stupid looks on thier faces not understanding that the world just passed them by.

By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/12, Rating: -1
RE: But...
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/2012 1:53:05 PM , Rating: 1
Awwww, butt hurt over the truth? LOL

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 3:13:54 PM , Rating: 2
butt hurt over the analyst speculation?
Well whadaya expect? Everyone happy about someone speculating? That's impossible. When you speculate somebody will always feel butt hurt.

RE: But...
By Reclaimer77 on 6/28/2012 3:20:20 PM , Rating: 2
This isn't speculation. At this point it's observation. RIM is crumbling before our very eyes.

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/12, Rating: 0
RE: But...
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 3:21:03 PM , Rating: 2
I speculate Pirks will feel really butt hurt when RIM is sold off. Unless maybe MS buys them as some are speculating now. Then he will be all giddy.

That would make a good pair. MS WM8+BES.

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 4:14:39 PM , Rating: 2
I speculate retro will feel really butt hurt when RIM is successfully selling BB 10

RE: But...
By Brandon Hill on 6/28/2012 5:01:12 PM , Rating: 2
Too bad it's delayed until Q1 2013...

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 5:06:13 PM , Rating: 2
Too good RIM has money to survive till Q1 2013...

RE: But...
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 5:20:00 PM , Rating: 2
Too bad they will be forced to sell it off before that happens

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 5:30:33 PM , Rating: 2
It's just a speculation

RE: But...
By Belard on 6/29/2012 9:39:53 AM , Rating: 4
Sorry Pirks, but its not just tech sites... Wallstreet, the carriers... are not doing RIM any favors.

The problems of RIM were mostly caused by RIM. They screwed up with QNX with delays (Remember, Palm bought out BeOS - which was quite powerful back in the 90s - it got them nowhere)

Take it from me, I'm an Amiga owner... way back with the Amiga1000 through the Amiga 3000. The hardware, the OS easily blew the doors off of PC and Mac in the 80s. Its failure is 95% the company (Commodore), not the users who sold it word-of-mouth. I know how it feels to have your platform DIE. By 1992, Amiga tech was quickly becoming out-dated. When the Amiga4000 came out, I knew it was crap technology. I went out and bought a cheap new A3000 to hold me over until some other company bought out Amiga and did something. Nope, it took almost 2 years to be sold, and then it was resold like 10 times... every company died touching it (Gateway included).

If RIM doesn't pull itself out soon, they will not live to see 2014 and their tech will be absorbed into whoever pays a few bucks for the patents. There is nothing else needed of RIM by anyone.

Now, RIM can make a customized Android (which THEY are allowed to do) along with their own patented APPS would have been the FAR cheaper and faster way to bring new phone models to market.

Its understandable to NOT be just another Android company, but what is better? a 3% market share with a dying platform which may not recover or a 10% marketshare that could grow? I actually like the design of the BB9850 which physical main buttons and its 3.7" screen. But I don't care for the BB interface as it stands.

As it is, BB10 can run Android Apps through a wrapper... so WHY not simply go Android and save their skins? Just make their own in-house APPS that is specific to their biz/market and only sold with BB branded phones? The END-USER wouldn't know BB10 from android anyway with a proper skin job. Last time I was in an at&t shop, I showed them Launcher7 on my Android phone and they thought it was really a Windows7 phone (at first).

If they can get over themselves (EGO) and go Android - they can turn it around in 3~6 months. They would have the Android APP store, people would NOT be afraid to buy a BB Android phone.

Hey, remember my post in the other article? Seriously, I would buy a BB9850-type device with Android OS over a Samsung-anything or Nokia 900 without blinking.

I doubt they can do entertain the idea of doing this... they are not flexible. That would require more forward thinking and not lying to themselves.

BB10 is not Android, they don't have the developer support... Older BB devices won't run BB10. The mindset of people will not change... I don't see it changing. RIM has had 3 years to do something, anything.

RE: But...
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/12, Rating: 0
RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 4:06:00 PM , Rating: 1
I expect the analyst who gets paid to promote or demote companies does this for a living
Thank you, Captain Obvious

RE: But...
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/2012 4:21:06 PM , Rating: 2
Funny how you have to change peoples words to try to suit your agenda....

Also, You aren't welcome Captain DoucheBag

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 4:33:56 PM , Rating: 2
I knew you would be too dumb to understand what my changing of words means. Oh well, you're as predictable as always.

RE: But...
By Cheesew1z69 on 6/28/2012 4:43:55 PM , Rating: 3
Except, you think everyone is to stupid to understand what you try to say. That's your problem. Everyone does understand. Everyone understands you also are trying to twist things to suit your agenda. It's you, that's predictable. But wait, there's more, you will continue with your idiotic bullshit despite the fact, that the proof is against what you try to spout. Typical troll bullshit.

"I'm PIRKS, I am better than you! LOLOLOL :)))))"

Fucking moron.

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/12, Rating: -1
RE: But...
By Dug on 6/28/2012 3:20:20 PM , Rating: 2
The problem is they are adding 1 subscriber to loosing 4.
But they only report the 1 that they added, to look good.

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/12, Rating: 0
RE: But...
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 5:24:01 PM , Rating: 2
oh yeah... Things are looking really ggood now. Pirks was right. LOL

RE: But...
By Pirks on 6/28/2012 5:34:32 PM , Rating: 2
It's darkest before the dawn

RE: But...
By retrospooty on 6/28/2012 5:40:30 PM , Rating: 2
It's also darkest before the end and a far more likely scenario. 30% layoffs is just trimming the fat pre-sale.

Whatever though, I am done trying to convince you. I will just say I told you so when its over.

"Paying an extra $500 for a computer in this environment -- same piece of hardware -- paying $500 more to get a logo on it? I think that's a more challenging proposition for the average person than it used to be." -- Steve Ballmer

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