Mr. Bachman predicts that Apple will announce shipments of 2.4 to 2.5 million
Macs over the three-month period. If his prediction holds true, it would
represent another strong gain of 39 percent over last year. The industry
as a whole saw growth over last year -- 12.2 percent on average -- but the
estimate would place Apple's growth at 3.2 times the industry average.
A variety of factors have influenced the strong sales, he says. One major
factor is pricing. A payment of $1,300 will get you a 2.4GHz MacBook,
only a hair more than the average $1,292 paid for a 13-inch notebook.
Typically the MacBook is faster, according to Mr. Bachman, than this average
notebook as well. At other price levels and configuration he says Apple
trades storage for speed, but manages to attract certain customers.
Traditionally, Apple's prices have been much higher that comparable PCs.
However, Apple has been more
aggressive with its pricing of late, thanks in part to its adoption of more
affordable Intel processors.
Unsurprisingly, the other major cause for the adoption according to Mr. Bachman
is consumer mistrust of Windows Vista. While Vista has struggled
greatly in the business sector, consumer adoption has been kinder to
it. However, according to Mr. Bachman, there is still a strong public
perception that Vista is substandard in bugs and performance and that Apple
computers are less problematic, simpler, and more secure.
"Thus far, user satisfaction ratings for Vista have been weak, and startup
times for Vista have been known to be much slower than the Mac OS X," he
says. "Thus, more than 50% of recent customers buying Macs in Apple
retail stores are first-time buyers."
While Mr. Bachman may well be correct, one small irony is that most security
experts consider Apple to be the inferior
of the two OS's in terms of security. Nonetheless, Microsoft suffers
from an image problem in which many people mistakenly believe it to be less
secure, thanks in part to clever marketing campaigns from Apple.
growth is projected for 2009 by Mr. Bachman as well. He says that he
sees Apple growing shipments another 26 percent, yielding a worldwide marketshare
of 3.9 percent. He says that the new MacBooks coming in August, the
iPhone 3G's halo-effect (people buying Apple products to work with their new
Apple-brand music player/phone), and planned retail expansion will all help
Apple's success going.
Interestingly, Mr. Bachman predicts a shortage of the iPhone 3G. This may
limit Mac sales and hurt the iPhone sales rates, but he says it would project
an image of warm reception. He states, "We believe it is quite
possible Apple will run out of phones, post the July 11 launch [but] in the
month of July, given some recent production yield issues. However, we
believe that Apple will be able to catch up with phone demand during the
quarter. Hence, from a stock perspective, near-term lack of availability issues
could end up being positive... with headlines reading something akin to
near-term demand outpaces supply."
Could Apple have an intentional shortage up its sleeve? The move would be
questionable, but coming from Apple it might be unsurprising. Whether you
are a critic or fan of Apple, it’s hard to debate that time and time again
Apple has lured
customers with clever marketing and to as much emphasis on form as
While Apple will need many more years of growth and strong
sales to even begin to approach the marketshare level of PCs, it seems on
course to at least continue to make its unique splash on the computer market.
quote: Nonetheless, Microsoft suffers from an image problem in which many people mistakenly believe it to be less secure, thanks in part to clever marketing campaigns from Apple.
quote: Sorry, with my Safe Sleep option, my Mac comes up in under a second.
quote: Sorry, with my Safe Sleep option, my Mac comes up in under a second. Booting from scratch takes longer, of course.
quote: One person might call this clever but I might lean more towards deceptive. The Applce commercials seem to me to be overly negative towards Vista. So much so that I would say Apple is lying to the consumer when they claim that Vista doesn't work. Since deceiving the consumer is illegal maybe someone should have a closer look at this seeing as it is having a measurable impact on the market place.
quote: If you've been using Windows for the last 15 years and are comfortable with it, your next computer will have Windows on it. See all those people walking out of Best Buy and Circuit City with new computers? Windows.
quote: “We know our story is very different from what our competitors want us to think,” Brad Brooks, Corporate Vice President of Windows Consumer Product, told attendees of Microsoft’s Worldwide Partner Conference in Houston during a keynote address on July 8. “Today we are drawing a line and are going to start telling the real story” about Vista.While Brooks didn’t call out Apple by name (he instead referred to a “pretty noisy competitor out there”), he made it clear that Microsoft is finally going to hit back via ad campaigns, including the $300-million-plus one it has under development with Crispin Porter + Bogusky. (Sadly, Microsoft didn’t show off during the keynote any of the new ad collateral that Crispin Porter is creating.)
quote: I've owned PCs for 20 years (from the age of 14 until the age of 24) and it used to be fun...
quote: So where is the threat?
quote: At what point has he removed the Apple appendage from the back of his throat?
quote: Have you used the DVD playback in Vista? Horrible.
quote: ...when you buy an Apple without anything else you simply turn it on and it has everything you need from the get go.
quote: Thus far, user satisfaction ratings for Vista have been weak, and startup times for Vista have been known to be much slower than the Mac OS X," he says. "Thus, more than 50% of recent customers buying Macs in Apple retail stores are first-time buyers
quote: Apple is flashy and slick and new, it sells.
quote: Reminds me of Nintendo because really, how much fun is it to wave a remote control around.