Print 16 comment(s) - last by Ringold.. on Oct 10 at 5:15 PM

Analysts hoped RIM would launch the platform in January; still no OFFICIAL word, yet

It sounds like it could be more bad news for a familiar struggling player in the smartphone industry -- but take this one with a grain of salt.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek is back to his old ways, spreading a tale of gloom and doom regarding Research in Motion, Ltd. (TSE:RIM).  

Regarding RIM's ambiguous "Q1 2013" launch of its upcoming BlackBerry 10 (BB10) smartphone operating system and new device lineup, he warns, "We had hoped for a January launch but now see a March launch as more likely.  Also, our checks point to a tough November quarter, with replenishment rates decreasing as channel partners are cautious on holding RIM inventory. We think the business uncertainty means parties are unlikely to acquire or license from RIM until BB10 launches."

He adds, "We still believe a third ecosystem [in addition to iOS and Android] will emerge, but the probability of BB10 filling the role is wholly dependent on whether RIM can convince Samsung, Huawei, and ZTE to license.  Baidu, Huawei, and others are pursuing their own operating systems. We also see Win 8 as somewhat of a threat but conflicting reviews, less-than-stellar developer feedback, and a desire by Microsoft to make hardware directly make Win 8."

So far if RIM has a licensing plan up its sleeve, it hasn't announced it yet.  Thus far all of the RIM's announced BB10 devices have been first-party designs, the company's traditional bread and butter.

An analyst claims the RIMdenberg won't be delivering BB10 devices as early as anticipated. 
[Image Source: Jason Mick/DailyTech LLC]

Of course Mr. Misek had previously told All Things Digital, "It’s going to be terrible with a scoop of worse for August."

Instead RIM handily beat Mr. Misek's financial prediction.  The fiscal surprise came thanks to strong cost cutting, and was in spite of the fact that RIM largely met Mr. Misek's gloomy prediction on the unit sales front.

The facts are simple -- RIM has delayed BB10 by over a year so far.  And its volumes lay decimated at a fraction of their former glory.

However, it's worth taking Mr. Misek and other analysts' "inside" information with a bit of skepticism, until the same news comes straight from horse's mouth (which it oft does).  After all, those same aforementioned dire metrics have certain parties greedily eyeing a fire sale purchase of the embattled phonemaker, and every bit of extra bad news -- true or not -- likely sweetens the price.

Source: Forbes

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We dont...
By retrospooty on 10/9/2012 3:36:24 PM , Rating: 2
"Don't Expect RIM's BB10 Until March 2013"

We expect it will be deleyed even further than that, because its RIM.

RE: We dont...
By Mitch101 on 10/9/2012 4:08:42 PM , Rating: 2
Is anyone really expecting a BB device? and I'm someone who supports BES.

RE: We dont...
By Ringold on 10/9/2012 4:25:47 PM , Rating: 2
I don't.. They've got the cash to make it until March, but they might get swallowed up for patents and assets before then.

And their launch has to go pretty well, too, or they're done. They don't have the money to absorb a bad launch..

Big further delays? Game over. Stock price fall too low to make it an easy take-over? Game over. Mediocre BB10 launch? Game over.

I liked them too, but their tombstone could read "Died of product delays."

RE: We dont...
By retrospooty on 10/9/2012 4:29:25 PM , Rating: 2
"And their launch has to go pretty well, too, or they're done. They don't have the money to absorb a bad launch.."

RIM hasnt executed anything well in the past 5 years (at least). Everything they do is marred with errors, mis-steps and piss poor decision making, topped off with massive denial.

QNX/BB10 is a good base OS, alot of potential, but RIM will just make a mess of it.

RE: We dont...
By Ringold on 10/9/2012 9:12:49 PM , Rating: 2
Agreed. Since, from a cash stand-point, their next launch is do-or-die, even if they DID execute well I don't know that there's enough consumer demand for BB10 to give them what they need. Dark days, but at least it's (hopefully) motivating for the people that haven't jumped ship yet.

RE: We dont...
By NellyFromMA on 10/9/2012 4:34:55 PM , Rating: 2
Headline reads:

Analyst: Expect Don't Expect RIM's BB10 Until March 2013

All I have to say is stop playing with my emotions! Expect or don't expect? Haha jk.

RE: We dont...
By Samus on 10/10/2012 3:29:53 AM , Rating: 2
By the time this thing comes out there will be a Galaxy S IV with Android 4.3, iPhone 5s with functioning Google Maps, and plenty of WinMo8 devices.

I think it's more likely Facebook will have a phone on the market before RIM gets their $!&% together.

By dagamer34 on 10/9/2012 3:37:46 PM , Rating: 2
All aboard the Hindenburg!

RE: Yep
By Nortel on 10/9/2012 4:14:48 PM , Rating: 4

RE: Yep
By Lord 666 on 10/9/2012 8:49:20 PM , Rating: 3
And it always makes me chuckle seeing you poke fun at RIM.

Analysts are dumb
By tayb on 10/9/2012 5:32:08 PM , Rating: 2
And rarely right. The qualifications to become an analyst are incredibly low given the power they have to sway markets. I'm not defending RIM here I'm just making an ad hominem attack on analysts.

Personally, I think RIM is doing just fine. Their actual quarterly results aren't terrible and they definitely aren't going down in flames right now as everyone loves to speculate. I was just at PAWCON in Boston and most of the CEOs and "bigwigs" I met there were still using Blackberry. They have to, corporate security.

BB10 looks great but they really needed to release it 10 months ago. A lot of the "wow" features when I first saw it demoed have since been copied by competitors in the market. It's still a great OS and I think BB has carved out a nice little niche for itself but if they delay this beyond March '13 I'll have some serious concerns.

Heh, what am I saying. March '13. That's past December '12 isn't it?

RE: Analysts are dumb
By drycrust3 on 10/9/2012 7:39:04 PM , Rating: 2
Personally, I think RIM is doing just fine.

The market has changed. They are late bringing their next generation onto the market. They need lots of apps in their application library.

RE: Analysts are dumb
By tayb on 10/10/2012 2:56:29 PM , Rating: 2
The market has expanded greatly but that doesn't mean there isn't room for a smaller player like RIM who offers something no one else does. Their sales numbers only look like crap when compared to the soaring numbers of the other huge players in the market such as Samsung and Apple. In a vacuum, their numbers don't look bad at all. You don't have to dominate the market to be a successful company.

RE: Analysts are dumb
By Ringold on 10/10/2012 5:12:55 PM , Rating: 2
Their numbers don't look bad at all? Now I know why you're voting for Obama, if RIM is "doing fine" in your book then you think this economy is fantastic!

From their last quarterly statement, which just landed not long ago..

-613 million net income.
-31% revenue growth.
-4% profit margin.
2.06 billion cash reserves.

You say their numbers look good in a vacuum. Is vacuum a new word on the streets for meth lab?

Key numbers are the net income and cash reserves, which is why analysts say they can either execute a fantastic BB10 launch, or they're bankrupt. Math. Use it. Wow.

Never believe an "analyst"
By dark matter on 10/9/2012 4:41:05 PM , Rating: 3
They have their own interests at heart, not yours, or even the company they are such an expert in.

In fact, never believe an analyst at all.

Wankers, the lot of them.

RE: Never believe an "analyst"
By Ringold on 10/10/2012 5:15:12 PM , Rating: 2
Don't need a PhD to look at their financials and see a dead man walking:

I think you and tayb bought RIMM stock and are just hoping it doesn't go to zero. Look on the bright side! I hear its worth at least 2 or $3 a share in patents and assets. So you might lose 99% from that stock purchase a couple years ago, but not 100%! ;)

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