DailyTech - AMD: Ride that Bull Baby!

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Blog: Hardware AMD: Ride that Bull Baby!
Rahul Sood (Blog) - April 5, 2006 10:53 PM

9 comment(s) - last by hstewarth.. on Apr 7 at 8:08 PM

There have been some pretty brutal downgrades on AMD over the last few weeks mostly related to the "price war" that Intel is waging. It's more of a civil war, really.

Did you read the latest analysts report on AMD? Some "super analyst" downgraded AMD due to the fact that Michael Schumacher crashed his Ferrari in the F1 race in Australia on Sunday. Apparently the ramifications of Michael Schumacher hitting the wall will adversely affect AMD’s margins on the low end.

I also heard another analyst downgraded AMD because Lance Armstrong fell off his bike. Apparently Lance was taking a stroll on the weekend through his neighborhood when he fell off his bicycle sending signals that AMD will lose market share to Intel this next quarter.

Last week Hector Ruiz came down with a cold, so they downgraded AMD again because Mr. Ruiz had to take a day off to visit the doctor. Apparently AMD’s top line revenues will be affected hurting their upcoming Q1 results.

Although all of the above are made up, they are no more ridiculous than some of the downgrades suggesting that AMD is going to have rough quarters coming up. This just isn’t the case – it’s simply not possible.

More on my personal blog, as always.

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conroe is real

By 8steve8 on 4/6/2006 3:02:45 PM , Rating: 2

what they should be downgrading amd on is the future availability of a better enthusiest cpu (conroe)

RE: conroe is real

By vzero on 4/6/2006 3:43:17 PM , Rating: 2

AMD are bound to lose market share in the wake of Conroe and the lateness of AM2, they have nothing to match Conroe until, possibly, the K8L or whatever they are calling it now - it's going to be too little too late, and whilst market analysts do tend to get anal about such things, they just don't want to look like they only have a couple of reasons for AMD's market share dropping.

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RE: conroe is real

By rahulsood on 4/6/2006 5:32:27 PM , Rating: 2

Conroe is real, no doubt, and when it comes out it will hardly end up being 20% of Intel's high end before the end of the year - just based on the availability of parts. I think AMDs Q2, and Q3 will be strong - Depending on how well each company executes on their next gen will leave Q4 up in the air.

I'm no analyst, but when an analyst says "sell because of the price war" I'm not sure who hired them in the first place.

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RE: conroe is real

By hstewarth on 4/7/2006 8:08:30 PM , Rating: 2

I think AMD is desiring a Price war, because they probable know that when the Conroe comes out things will be different. Also a lot of people are likely waiting for the Conroe or in my case "Woodcrest" and AMD is hoping a price war will get some of these people to purchase AMD systems instead.

The real war between AMD and Intel will come when the Conroe is release.

Also no doubtly Intel will be trying to sell off some of its old stock for people that don't know about the Conroe and purchases the Pentium 4's and D's.

I also expect that the days of $1000+ FX CPU are going to be over, Woodcrest looks very competivie and price significantly lower.

It should be very interesting summer in the CPU market.

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Never say never

By masher2

(blog) on 4/6/2006 11:33:26 AM , Rating: 2

> "some of the downgrades suggesting that AMD is going to have rough quarters coming up. This just isn’t the case – it’s simply not possible ..."

I think Murphy's Law of Predictions applies here...calling anything impossible is a sure sign it will eventually happen.

If one defines a 'rough quarter' as one where a company either shows a loss or loses market share, then I'd be willing to bet a large sum that AMD will have several over the next few years. If you're a betting man, take me up on it-- I'm sure Dailytech will hold the stakes for us.

Regardless of your personal feelings towards AMD, corporate history teaches us that all firms experience a few "rough quarters" now and then. Furthermore, a look at the balance sheets, fab capacities, and processor roadmaps for both Intel and AMD certainly suggest stormy waters ahead for the little guy from Sunnyvale.

RE: Never say never

By rahulsood on 4/6/2006 12:37:30 PM , Rating: 2

Rough quarters coming up are not possible - rough quarters in the future certainly are. This has nothing to do with my personal feelings about AMD as a company, none whatsoever.

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RE: Never say never

By masher2

(blog) on 4/6/2006 2:23:21 PM , Rating: 2

You'll have to quantify what you mean by "coming up". I'd certainly say that Q2 and possibly even Q3 are safe...but then a prediction that short term is hardly a challenge.

Q4 and Q1 07, now, are up for grabs. I'd expect the trouble to start developing somewhere around then. Sooner, if Intel decides to give up some margins in exchange for market share.

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